Tag: 2012 Election

(Also at Nevada Progressive)

In our previous glimpses into redistricting Nevada’s Congressional Districts, we discussed what would happen if The Legislature redraws the lines based on certain politicians’ future aspirations. But this time, I’m throwing a curveball at you. What happens if The Legislature can’t agree on a map?

Today, the fun really begins with a glimpse of a possible court drawn map.

Yes, you heard me right. Two law suits have already been filed, one by the Nevada Democratic Party and another by the Nevada GOP, and more legal action may follow if The Legislature drags on without a map ready for 2012. If the increasingly brutal state budget battle drags on to Summer Special Session with no agreement in sight, there’s a good chance the gridlock will also extend to redistricting. And as much as Nevada Supreme Court justices do NOT want to wade into redistricting, I’ve been hearing that both they and the major parties are seeing it as more of a real possibility.

So what happens? Let’s take a look at just that, as a few angry judges throw out the political memos and guide a nonpartisan team to draw “fair” lines.

NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,932

69.3% White (73.7% VAP)

The State of Play

As you can see above, this is still a Washoe County based district. The good news for Republicans is that Washoe’s flirtations with Democrats can be offset by heavily Republican rural areas like Elko, Douglas, and Lyon Counties. However, the bad news is that swingy Mineral County and Carson City are also included. All in all, The 2nd District becomes slightly more Democratic.

Who’s All In?

Now that Kirk Lippold and Sharron Angle are officially in, let the tea-nuttery begin! It will be to fun to see those two out-crazy each other, then watch as “poor” Mark Amodei and Brian Krolicki try to get some of those teabagger votes without going too far off the deep end.

On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Kate Marshall is sounding more and more like a real candidate.

The Wild Cards

However, Marshall may not be alone. 2006 and 2008 NV-02 Democratic nominee Jill Derby is also looking at the race, along with Assembly Member Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) and Reno City Council Member Jessica Sferrazza. Now that all out madness is ensuing on the GOP side, Washoe Dems are increasingly liking their chances here… But it still won’t be an easy ride. Why? See below.

Estimated 2008 Results: 49-50% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Angle or Lippold wins the GOP primary

NV-04 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,314

61.9% White (65.2% VAP)

The State of Play

Now here’s where things start to get wild! Notice some changes? For one, it’s the new district that now gets drawn into the rurals. The new 4th District starts in rural Churchill County (Fallon gets placed in NV-02 because it can be argued it shares a community of interest with the other Reno exurbs), but otherwise the other rural counties are left whole as the district stretches from Ely down to Pahrump, then finally to Clark County. And once the district crosses into Clark, it takes in northern rural areas, from Indian Springs to Overton & Mesquite, then drops into the valley to take in the once rapidly expanding Northwest and Southwest Las Vegas suburbs, as well as all of Summerlin and some whiter West Side neighborhoods.

In essence, this is THE classic swing district with a unique mix of rural Republican strongholds, urban Democratic bases, and a whole lot of evenly divided suburban battlegrounds that can very well go either way next year… And that’s how the court will want it.

Who’s All In?

Notice something else? There’s no incumbent here! Even though there technically is one in Shelley Berkley, we all now know what she’s up to. So in her absence, there should be a wild ride on both sides in vying for this seat.

On the Republican side, State Senator Barbara Cegavske‘s (R-Summerlin) wish will finally be fulfilled as she now has an open seat to compete in. But then again, she may get an unwanted surprise if local teabagger groups rally behind the newly crowned, tea-tinged superstar in State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest Vegas). State Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Northwest Vegas) may also feel the temptation.

On the Democratic side, Assembly Member Marcus Conklin (D-Northwest Vegas) may be real opportunity here. And considering his gracious concession earlier this month and offer to endorse Chris Giunchigliani for Las Vegas Mayor after 15 votes separated them in the primary, Larry Brown is busy re-earning goodwill that may come in handy should he run for Congress next year. (By the way, in case you were wondering, he’s also apologized for the confusion over his support for SB 283 and domestic partnerships for LGBTQ families.) And unless the Nevada GOP can sideline Cegavske and Halseth in favor of a more mainstream nominee, Dems may very well like their chances here.

The Wild Cards

Hey, isn’t it wild enough already!

Estimated 2008 Results: 51-54% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Tossup

NV-01 (The Blue District)

Population: 674,765

47.0% Latino (41.2% VAP), 29.1% White (34.5% VAP), 14.6% African American (14.8% VAP)

The State of Play

Even if Shelley Berkley wasn’t running for Senate, the court would not care where she lives or where she “wants” to represent. But now that she’s definitely out of the picture, all bets are off! The 1st District contracts to just (all of) North Las Vegas and the older, more Latino and African American heavy parts of The City of Las Vegas, as well as a few heavily Latino unincorporated Clark County areas and the northern half of The Strip.

Who’s All In?

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) hasn’t done a great job of hiding his desire to head to DC. And thankfully for him, a court drawn map doesn’t prevent that, as this is designed to be a VRA protected minority-majority coalition district.

However, the path isn’t too clear for him. After all, this is a strong Latino plurality district, and State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) is a fierce fighter who’s gaining broader appeal as a strong, progressive voice in The Legislature. Since this district overlaps with nearly all of his current Senate district, Kihuen definitely can’t be counted out.

The Wild Cards

State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) isn’t stupid, so perhaps he can’t entirely be counted out yet. But as I’ve said before, he’s acting far too conservative this session to really gain traction in a Democratic primary here.

And sorry, Republicans, but there’s really no GOPer who can compete here.

Estimated 2008 Results: 67-68% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

NV-03 (The Red District)

Population: 675,520

56.2% White (60.3% VAP), 23.1% Latino (19.8% VAP), 9.6% Asian American (10.0% VAP)

The State of Play

Now here’s where things get really crazy! Remember, the court is overseeing the drawing of this map. The judges don’t care what Joe Heck wants or who he wants to represent. All they care about are population equity and fair boundaries. So unfortunately for him, he’s forced to accept a Henderson based district that keeps the entire city intact while stretching north into the strongly Democratic East Side (which can be argued shares a community of interest with most of Henderson), and west across The Strip to heavily Democratic Spring Valley (which can be argued shares a community of interest with The East Side, and is needed for population equity), and across Eastern Avenue to Democratic leaning Silverado Ranch.

However, Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy here. Remember, ALL of Henderson is kept in here, including Joe Heck’s own MacDonald Ranch/Roma Hills base as well as the opulent, affulent, & Republican dominant Anthem & Seven Hills communities. Also kept in are more GOP heavy Boulder City, along with the rural communities of Searchlight and Laughlin further south (as well as Primm, added in from NV-02).

Who’s All In?

Obviously, Joe Heck wants another term. However, he will really have to rethink his strategy if The Legislature deadlocks on the state budget and redistricting gets determined in court. Since he’s likely to be kept in what will at least be a Democratic tilting district, he will need far more crossover support than he got in 2010 to survive next year in a district President Obama will probably win by double digits again.

So obviously, Heck looks to be an inviting target for Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch). He’s survived tough battles before, and he’s in the fight of his life now over the state budget. He may feel ready to take on Heck…

But there’s someone else waiting in the wings, someone who will have waited a year for the rematch she’s been looking for. Dina Titus definitely shouldn’t be counted out, especially since she only barely lost last time… And this time, many of the areas where she performed worst have been removed. Meanwhile, her East Side base is left intact, along with the Green Valley (Henderson) neighborhoods where she beat Heck.

The Wild Cards

Byron Georgiou has quickly turned from welcomed Democratic fundraiser to unwelcome Democratic pariah. Both Shelley Berkley and Harry Reid want him out of the Senate race, and rumors have surfaced about him possibly running for House instead. So will it be here? Or in the new NV-04 seat? Or maybe even NV-01? Whatever the case, a whole lot of Democratic strategists nervously await where Georgiou will land.

And of course, depending on what Joe Heck does, particularly how he votes in The House, there’s a chance of him being called for “tea time” in the GOP primary.

Estimated 2008 Results: 55-57% Obama (D)

Early Race Rating: Tossup for now, Leans Democratic if Heck has primary woes & Dems get a top notch nominee

So there you have it. This is just one scenario of what might happen if redistricting Nevada’s Congressional Districts is tossed to the courts for judges to decide and nonpartisan players to draw. An incumbent is thrown into jeopardy, two open seats lead to total feeding frenzies, and an epic rematch may be coming to doorsteps near me soon.

Now that I’ve been working on redistricting Nevada for some time, I figured it was time to branch out and see how Congressional maps might change next door. So I’m heading to Arizona today to explore how their map might change.

Unlike Nevada, Arizona’s redistricting isn’t done by the state legislature. Rather, an independent commission draws the lines. However that commission isn’t free of controversy, and speculation is already heating over where the new district will go.

Here’s my attempt at guessing what happens.

AZ-01 (Royal Blue)

Population: 710,180

63.6% White (68.7% VAP), 20.5% Native American (17.8% VAP)

This district stretches across most of Northern Arizona, including The Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, Sedona, and Navajo Territory. AZ-01 is currently represented by “tea party” Republican Paul Gosar, but from 2009 to 2010 Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represented this district.

In redoing AZ-01, I was presented with a bit of challenge. How do I preserve the integrity of Northern Arizona while finding enough voters to meet the population requirement? And keep it at least relatively competitive?

So I added most of Mohave County (just Lake Havasu City was left out) to AZ-01, and shifted Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee Counties into the new AZ-09 district. (More on that later.) And thankfully, I was able to keep the Native American population above 20% here.

Sorry, but I just didn’t have the time to pore over the Arizona Secretary of State’s archaic precinct archives. Over the weekend, I just eyeballed county level election results and voter registration stats to estimate PVI and voting trends. And here, I’d peg the new AZ-01 at close to R+10, with Obama getting about 42-44% of the vote here in 2008. But remember, Arizona PVI figures are deceiving, as John McCain overperformed in his home state (compared to the other Southwestern states) in 2008. And since Ann Kirkpatrick won with similar partisan hurdles in 2008, it probably isn’t impossible for a Democrat to win this district again.

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican

AZ-02 (Army Green)

Population: 710,023

68.4% White (73.8% VAP)

AZ-02 now starts in Lake Havasu City in Southern Mohave County, then takes in heavily Republican La Paz County, then jumps into Maricopa County to take in the Western Phoenix Suburbs mostly covered by Legislative Districts (LDs) 4, 9, and 12. LD 4 is heavily Republican, and the GOP has just over an 11% registration edge in LD 9. In LD 12, however, Republicans only have a 5% registration edge, and Independents outnumber both parties.

Still, Trent Franks probably has nothing to worry about here… At least for now, as older white Republicans continue to flock to the retirement communities here.

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

AZ-03 (Magenta)

Population: 709,789

78.6% White (81.6% VAP)

At first glance, this should be a district Ben Quayle will be quite happy with. The new AZ-03 overlaps with most of LDs 6, 7, 8, 10, and some of LD 11, with all but LD 10 sporting huge GOP registration advantages.

However, there’s a little kink here. While North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills are heavily Republican, they’re currently represented by Republican David Schweikert in AZ-05. With Schweikert moved to AZ-03 under this map, will Arizona Republicans prefer him representing this district over the more controversial Quayle, who only scored 52% as other Arizona Republicans romped to easy victories last year? Will David Schweikert, a more seasoned Phoenix area pol viewed as more mainstream, be seen as a safer bet in a seat that the GOP really shouldn’t lose? Or will North Phoenix be happy enough with Ben Quayle to keep him in place?

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican (but safe for whom?)

AZ-04 (Deep Red)

Population: 710,184

64.3% Latino (57.8% VAP), 21.7% White (27.7% VAP)

Not much changes here, as the mostly Latino urban heart of Phoenix is kept intact, along with the more Latino heavy neighborhoods of Glendale. This seat is most likely Ed Pastor‘s for as long as he wants it.

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

AZ-05 (Bright Yellow)

Population: 710,453

63.1% White (68.1% VAP)

This district overlaps with most of LDs 11, 17, and 20, along with parts of LDs 8, 15, 16, and 18. It combines rich, Republican heavy Paradise Valley with brainy, Democratic leaning Tempe, along with some diverse Central Phoenix neighborhoods and increasingly Latino heavy West Mesa precincts.

Basically, this is your quintessential swing district. Most likely this district will have about even PVI come 2013. Even “Native Son” John McCain couldn’t muster any more than 51% in its current incarnation, which includes more GOP dominant North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills.

So will David Schweikert decide to move here to continue representing AZ-05? Or as I suggested above, will he move to AZ-03 and opt for a safer seat? I’m sure the Arizona GOP doesn’t want to cede any seats in redistricting, but The East Valley has been trending more Democratic of late, and Ben Quayle did come fairly close to losing in a banner Republican year. And not to mention, The Independent Redistricting Commission will be under intense pressure to draw more competitive districts.

So the Arizona GOP may not have any other choice but to accept they’ll have to fight hard to keep AZ-05.

Early Race Rating: Tossup

AZ-06 (Teal)

Population: 709,964

67.3% White (71.7% VAP)

Even though Jeff Flake is now running for US Senate, the Arizona GOP need not worry about this district falling. AZ-06 is now entirely within Maricopa County, but it mostly overlaps strongly Republican LDs 18, 19, 21, and 22.

While Chandler and Mesa are slowly diversifying as more Latino and Asian-American families seek affordable housing there, the fast growing, affluent, and heavily Mormon suburb of Gilbert will probably remain strongly Republican enough to keep AZ-06 in GOP hands in the next decade. But over time, it will be interesting to see if this area becomes more competitive as the more close-in East Valley suburbs (like Tempe in AZ-05) grow more Democratic.

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

AZ-07 (Silver)

Population: 710,696

59.3% Latino (53.5% VAP), 30.7% White (36.9% VAP)

Raul Grijalva had the political scare of his life last fall when he only mustered 50% against previously unknown teabagger darling Ruth McClung. Previously, his reelection campaigns were much easier… But then again, that was before Arizona started making political headlines in taking national immigration policy into its own hands. And perhaps as AZ-07 becomes more Latino and less rural under this map, Grijalva won’t be so vulnerable again in the future.

In this map, AZ-07 loses GOP heavy La Paz County, as well as a Republican leaning chunk of Pinal County. Instead, the district picks up more Latino and Democratic friendly precincts in urban Maricopa County, then turns south to Pima County, and now takes in all of Latino heavy and strongly Democratic Santa Cruz County. (Previously, some of Santa Cruz was in AZ-08.)

Depending on how long Arizona’s immigration controversy continues and how angry Arizonans remain at Raul Grijalva for his early support of an Arizona boycott over SB 1070, there may still be a possibility of future competitive races here. But as I said above, I suspect the possibility won’t be as high as the district becomes less white and less rural.

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic

AZ-08 (Sky Blue)

Population: 710,510

65.6% White (70.1% VAP)

It was the bullet felt around the world. When Gabrielle Giffords was shot at a “Congress on Your Corner” event in January, discussion immediately began on the ramifications of the increasingly violent nature of American politics today.

Fortunately, Gabby Giffords survived and is now recovering from the near fatal attack that did happen to leave 20 other victims wounded and another 6 people dead. And today, there is even speculation on Giffords possibly running for higher office, such as US Senate, even as other Democratic Members of Congress recently held a fundraiser for Giffords’ AZ-08 2012 campaign.

Honestly, I have my doubts as to whether Giffords can recover in time to run for Senate. But should she be able to run for House again, she will probably have an easier time in this new AZ-08. For one, it’s now entirely within Pima County. (No more rural stretches of Pinal or Cochise Counties.) Also, it includes more urban and Democratic friendly neighborhoods in Tucson.

However AZ-08 probably still has an even or slightly Democratic PVI at best due to the number of more affluent and Republican Tucson suburbs and exurbs still in this district. Most of LDs 25, 26, and 28 are in this district, along with some of LDs 29 and 30. LDs 26 and 30 lean Republican, but LDs 25, 28, and 29 lean Democratic. So it won’t be a totally easy ride for Giffords, and it will probably be a little more difficult to hold if there’s another open seat election in the immediate future. But if the Arizona GOP shoots itself in the foot with another teabagger nominee, they can probably only do so much here.

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic if Giffords runs again, Leans Democratic if Giffords retires or runs for another office

AZ-09

Population: 710,218

61.3% White (65.5% VAP)

So we end with the new district. With so much of Arizona’s phenomenal growth in the last decade occurring in increasingly exurban Pinal County, I decided to base AZ-09 here, add some exurban Maricopa County areas (like Queen Creek), and expand it to a small part of Gila County, and to all of Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties. Now just remember, appearances can be deceiving.

This area may appear to be quite Republican, but voter registration remains close. (Republicans add up to a slight edge, but there’s a large number of Independent voters here.) John McCain carried this district by (likely mid-) double digits in 2008, but Janet Napolitano won by an even greater margin in 2006.

So I think the right Democrat can at least make this district competitive, especially as the Pinal and Maricopa portions mature and become more suburban and diverse. But until that happens, Republicans probably have the edge here.

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican

In all, I created 4 absolutely safe districts, with the other 4 at least holding the potential to become competitive races next year. Did I get it wrong? If you’re more of an Arizona expert than I, please feel free to critique me and let me know if there are items to be fixed and improved.

(Also at Nevada Progressive)

Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here’s another option… But I have to warn you, it isn’t pretty.

So what if Shelley Berkley doesn’t run? Last time, we just assumed she was, and certain legislators hope she will so that they can redesign the 1st Congressional District (and form the brand new 4th) to their liking. But hold on, what if Shelley doesn’t run? Certain folks in DC have already been whispering they prefer someone else run for Senate. And now that Dean Heller is officially in the race, they’re making their views more public that they want someone, like Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto, who has already proven ability to win statewide.

So what if Shelley doesn’t run? This is the scenario I explore in the map below.

NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,966

69.3% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

The geographic map hasn’t changed since last time, but the political one certainly has!

Who’s All In?

Again, it’s now official that Dean Heller is running for US Senate. And now that he’s endorsed Heller for Senate, current Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki (R) just may be angling to replace Heller in this seat. And on paper, he seems like the ideal candidate: libertarian-conservative, but not too extreme, and very focused on Nevada issues. However, there are three drawbacks for him:

The Wild Cards

– One, Sharron Angle hasn’t yet figured out where she will run. (And yes, it’s pretty much settled that she WILL run for federal office again!) If she runs for Senate again, it will mean extra heartburn for Heller. But if she runs for this seat again, it will mean extra trouble for Krolicki.

– Two, the outspoken and controversial former USS Cole commander Kirk Lippold has already hinted he’ll also run in NV-02, and Nevada “tea party” icon Chuck Muth may already be anointing him as “THE Tea Party’s Favored Son”. So if Sharron Angle runs for Senate instead and Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei remains adamant about staying in the race (and potentially siphoning away critical GOP establishment support for Krolicki), this could be a recipe for yet another embarrassing setback for Krolicki and the Nevada GOP.

– And three, the unexpected may finally happen: A prominent A-List Democrat, State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), is now considering running. If this comes to fruition and the GOP nominee is either weakened by a brutal primary and/or someone that the GOP establishment won’t be happy to support, then NV-02 just might do the unthinkable for the first time ever (elect a Democrat).

2010 US Senate Results

49.6% Angle (R)

43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

49% Obama (D)

48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Sharron Angle or Kirk Lippold is the GOP nominee

NV-03 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,257

66.4% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

This district is just slightly more Democratic than its last incarnation, and that’s due to the return of the ritzy Summerlin North and Peccole Ranch (home of Shelley Berkley) Las Vegas neighborhoods to NV-01. The rest of the district remains intact, and the partisan makeup wasn’t too altered thanks to the remaining rural territories and the addition of some semi-rural (Las Vegas) West Side precincts along Sahara and west of Rainbow. And other than forming an even more disturbingly gerrymandered Reno-to-Vegas district, there isn’t anything more that can be done to save Joe Heck. And considering Heck’s recent vote to preserve the FHA program assisting  homeowners with underwater loans (which is badly needed in the district with the highest foreclosure rate in the country), he now realizes he will need to tack to the middle at times and at least pay some lip service to issues Southern Nevada cares about most (like housing and jobs) to win this still closely divided district.

Who’s All In?

See above. Heck looks to be preparing for reelection already. And since there’s a penchant for close elections and for ticket splitting here, he certainly shouldn’t be counted out in a district that President Obama will probably only narrowly win next year.

The Wild Cards

Should Heck prove to be “too independent” for teabaggers’ liking, or if/when he runs for another office later in the decade, State Senators Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest) and Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) will likely remain waiting in the wings. But with the removal of Summerlin North, it may be a little harder to find a West Side Democrat to run here. However, Democrats may want to look at the other end of the valley (particularly at a couple folks on the Henderson City Council) for future recruits.

2010 US Senate Results

48.2% Angle (R)

46.5% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

51% Obama (D)

46% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican

NV-01 (The Baby Blue District)

Population: 675,092

43.7% Latino (38.1% voting age), 32.2% White (37.6% voting age), 14.4% African American (14.4% voting age)

The State of Play

Shelley is back… Or at the very least, this seat is hers as long as she wants it. If Shelley Berkley does decide to sit out the Senate race next year and stay in The House for now, she still has a super safe seat ready for her.

This seat is just slightly more Republican than the last version, but still slightly more Democratic than the NV-01 drawn in 2001. And again, that’s just because the district (once again) has to stretch west toward Red Rock Canyon to dip into Shelley’s elegant stomping grounds of Peccole Ranch and Summerlin North. However, this does very much alter the ultimate state of play here.

Who’s All In?

Without Summmerlin, this district can finally send a North Las Vegas politico like State Senators Steven Horsford or Ruben Kihuen to Congress. But with this configuration, high turnout West End ‘hoods like Summerlin and Desert Shores will probably remain quite dominant in the primary, meaning Shelley will go untouched as long as she wants to remain in NV-01…

The Wild Cards

And should she finally run for higher office or retire later in the decade, a Summerlin area Democrat like State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) or Clark County Commissioner (and Future Las Vegas Mayor?) Larry Brown (D-Las Vegas) definitely has a good chance here. But if Ruben Kihuen can be patient and turn out his enthusiastic “NorTown” base, he will still have a strong fighting chance as this district continues to inch toward becoming majority Latino and supermajority minority-majority. And honestly, neither can Horsford be counted out, especially if he can wait another cycle or two for Shelley to step aside.

2010 US Senate Results

62.5% Reid (D)

33.1% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

66% Obama (D)

32% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+13

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic, regardless of who ultimately runs here

NV-04 (Light Spring Green)

Population: 674,936

48.6% White (53.2% voting age), 27% Latino (23.1% voting age), 11.8% Asian American (12.3% voting age)

The State of Play

It’s still open season here… Perhaps even more so if Shelley indeed decides to stay put next door. The district hooks into The West Side to take whiter neighborhoods left out of NV-01, then jumps down to the increasingly diverse Spring Valley, then hops across The Strip to The East Side and some of East Las Vegas (and ultimately to Lake Mead), then climbs uphill to grab the more Democratic leaning Henderson precincts of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch, then sweeps through the diverse and increasingly Democratic friendly Silverado Ranch communuity, then hops back across The 15 to snatch some minority-majority neighborhoods in the once rapidly growing Southwest.

Who’s All In?

Need we ask? Rory Reid is probably out of the running for good, and Dina Titus‘ political stock continues to rebound. This time, she just might get a seat she can get comfy in.

The Wild Cards

However, Dina also can’t take this seat for granted. Both Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D-Spring Valley) and current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) are eyeing this district, and both have far better relationships with the Nevada Democratic establishment than Dina Titus.

2010 US Senate Results

56.0% Reid (D)

39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

60% Obama (D)

37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic, and will probably be downgraded to Safe Democratic so long as the eventual nominee isn’t caught in a Rory-like scandal

Suffice to say, a whole lot changes if Shelley Berkley decides to stay in The House rather than run for Senate. The Clark based districts will probably have to be gerrymandered at least somewhat to keep everyone happy.

And up north, the fate of NV-02 may very well rest on what Sharron Angle decides to do, and what her once ardent “tea party” supporters think of Brian Krolicki and Mark Amodei. If Angle can regain their trust, or if she runs for Senate instead and allows someone like Kirk Lippold to consolidate the tea tinged Northern Nevada far right base, Krolicki may not be in for an easy ride regardless of whether Dean Heller decides to anoint a successor. And with Kate Marshall now eyeing a run here as well, Democrats may actually have a pickup opportunity up north next year.

(Also at Nevada Progressive)

It is here. After hours of careful line drawing and days of poring over precinct results, the map has arrived. This is Nevada redistricted, baby!

So will the actual final map look something like this? Honestly, I don’t know for sure. Perhaps legislators on both sides of the aisle will want even safer seats and are willing to configure some gruesome looking districts to get them… Or perhaps last minute talks of redistricting collapse as a casualty in an ongoing state budget brawl, leaving the courts to ultimately draw the lines. But most likely, as is usual tradition, The Nevada Legislature will agree on some sort of last minute budget deal, and on a bipartisan redistricting gerrymander.

Still, this year is different. As population continues to swell in Clark County (Greater Las Vegas), political power is slowly-but-surely shifting southward as well. Clark is destined to pick up as many as three legislative seats from the north, as well as a brand new Congressional District. For the first time ever, three Las Vegas area politicians will likely be sent to The House of Representatives.

And for the first time ever, Nevada will likely have three open House seats! It’s looking increasingly likely that both Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) will run for the US Senate seat currently held by John Ensign (R-Sleaze), so legislators may very well be drawing the new district map with this in mind. And more importantly, they will likely be keeping in mind that some of their own, as well as a few powerful friends outside, will want to run in each of these open seats.

In drawing this map, I had several objectives in mind. First, I didn’t want to grossly “over-gerrymander” DeLay style, especially since law suits are already being filed here. But while I didn’t want to go overboard, I did clearly have campaign politics in mind while drawing these districts. There are two minority-majority seats, one having a Latino plurality, designed to elect Democrats, and two seats engineered to be as Republican leaning as possible.

So did I succeed? We’ll have to wait and see. Nevada Democrats may very well see unprecedented primary action in NV-01 and NV-04. And while NV-02 and NV-03 are currently held by Republicans, they will have to continue to fight an increasingly tough battle against changing Reno and Las Vegas demographics in the decade to come.

So enough of me blathering on and on… Let’s check out the new districts!

NV-02

(The Green District)

Population: 675,162

69.4% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

First up, the second district. (We’re starting north, and heading south.) Dean Heller currently represents this seat. And even though he’s only done so since 2007, it seems pretty natural for him. He’s a long time Carson City person (both in residence and in Nevada political experience), and he has a conservative-but-not-too-fire-breathing persona that allows him to win comfortably a district that only barely voted for John McCain (by fewer than 100 votes!) in 2008.

However, this will likely change. Again, Heller may very well soon announce his campaign for US Senate, leaving this seat open for the first time since Jim Gibbons left this seat to run for Governor in 2006. And due to Reno area growth, NV-02 has to shed some rural territory to meet the new Census Bureau population guideline. So what happens?

Long story short, NV-02 is now a district that narrowly voted for Barack Obama and Sharron Angle. It’s a closely divided district that will provide a challenge for the typically mighty Washoe Republicans, in that they will need to settle on a candidate who can please GOP primary voters while being able to win enough moderate voters in the general election to keep this seat in GOP hands.

Who’s All In?

Again, Dean Heller looks to be out, but a final decision hasn’t yet be made, so he might still surprise us by staying put. Of course, there has also been plenty of talk of Sharron Angle running (again) for this seat. Even though she carried this district by 5.8% in her Senate run against Harry Reid last year, 2012 will be a Presidential year with higher Reno area turnout. And as we saw on the campaign trail last year, Angle couldn’t even make peace with her fellow Washoe Republicans, so she will have a much harder time holding onto this seat than someone like Heller (who narrowly beat Angle in the 2006 NV-02 GOP primary).

The Wild Cards

Funny enough, I haven’t heard much gossip (yet) over who may be angling for this seat… Other than the obvious. And even though they were just recently sworn into The State Senate (one elected, the other appointed), Reno Republicans Ben Kieckhefer and Greg Brower may be attractive to GOP leaders as they likely search for electable mainstream conservatives to stop Sharron Angle. On the Democratic side, the options aren’t quite as wide. Nevada State Treasurer Kate Marshall does live in Reno, but she hasn’t expressed interest in running for Congress… Can Sharron Angle change that?

2010 US Senate Results

49.6% Angle (R)

43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

49% Obama (D)

48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican if Dean Heller runs here again, but upgraded to Leans Republican if Heller runs for Senate, and upgraded further to Tossup should Sharron Angle run to replace him!

NV-03

(The Purple District)

Population: 674,792

66.5% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

In the “Republican Wave” year of 2010, Joe Heck barely won with less than 50% of the vote and by fewer than 2,000 votes. That worries Nevada Republicans, and that’s why GOP legislators (especially those in Clark) will likely go to the mat to make NV-03 safer for Heck.

Mr. “War Hero” Heck could barely beat supposedly reviled “Las Vegas LIB’RUL!!!” Dina Titus by fewer than 2,000 votes, and for Heck’s campaign to succeed in a likely more Democratic friendly environment in 2012, this must change. So it has… At least here on my map.

Dina’s political base is widely acknowledged to be the progressive minded, ethnically diverse, labor union heavy, and LGBT friendly confines of The East Side, also known as “Paradise Township“, which consists the older neighborhoods just east of The Las Vegas Strip. So to shore up Heck, I removed The East Side from NV-03 and placed it instead in the newly created NV-04 seat (more on that later!).

Now in addition to that, Heck also had a problem much closer to home. Even though Heck lives in Henderson, both he and Sharron Angle lost a number of Henderson precincts just down the hill from him in uber-exclusive Roma Hills, in the slightly older (meaning built in the 1980s and 90s) and increasingly Democratic friendly neighborhoods of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch. So to further shore up Heck, I also placed these areas in NV-04 (again, more on that later, including who this also helps!).

Instead, I gave Heck only the most Republican friendly parts of NV-03, and supplemented them with mostly GOP heavy areas previously in NV-01 and NV-02. The perennially stylish and upscale Summerlin development (including “retiree heaven” Sun City Summerlin) is almost entirely reunited here, and joined by a number of previously fast growing Northwest and Southwest valley exurbs. From there, NV-03 almost exclusively picks up the most conservative neighborhoods of Henderson, including wealthy Seven Hills and Anthem (including “retirement resort community” Sun City Anthem), as well as Old Henderson. In addition, NV-03 takes in all the rural Clark County communities (such as Mesquite, Primm, and Laughlin) outside The Las Vegas Valley.

Oh, and of course, all those rural areas previously in NV-02, from Ely to Hawthorne to Pahrump, have to go somewhere. They end up here… But they could end up being a double-edged sword for Joe Heck.

Who’s All In?

From all indications, Joe Heck wants to run for reelection, and this map will surely entice him to do so again. However, he’s not completely out of the woods yet. In fact, like the situation in NV-02, he will have to balance appealing to moderate suburban voters who may very well vote for President Obama again (who STILL won this district in 2008) with keeping “tea party” GOP primary voters happy. It’s no easy task.

The Wild Cards

Should “Tea Party, Inc.” ever fall out of favor with Heck, or Heck just decides to run for yet another higher office later this decade, they have a number of local GOPers to choose from. State Senator Elizabeth Halseth (R-Las Vegas) is seen by many as a rising “tea party” superstar, and State Senator Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) is a long time right-wing stalwart. They’re basically Vegas’ answer to Sharron Angle, and Cegavske has already dropped hints of a future Congressional run. And of course, it’s not like “Chicken Lady” Sue Lowden is ever really leaving the political stage any time soon.

However, they can easily be stopped cold in their tracks. Why? Look at the partisan numbers. Angle only barely won this district last year, and Obama may very well win this district again next year. Joe Heck may have a hard enough time locking down this seat, but the task becomes even more difficult should he ever leave (or be primaried out).

Even though the rural areas (save for Mineral County) may be incredibly difficult for any Democrat to win, a Democrat may once again win this district if he or she can run up the margin enough in Vegas. In the future, the incredibly smart and talented State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) may have a once-in-a-lifetime opening to go from Carson’s Capitol to Capitol Hill… Or perhaps it will be Henderson Mayor Andy Hafen, someone from a long-time “Nevada royal family” who lives in the slice of Henderson staying in NV-03… Or maybe wonky “deficit hawk”, Clark County Commissioner, and current Las Vegas Mayoral Candidate Larry Brown (D-Summerlin)?

2010 US Senate Results

Angle (R) 48.5%

Reid (D) 46.3%

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

Obama (D) 51%

McCain (R) 47%

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican

NV-01

(The Blue District)

Population: 675,212

44.4% Latino (38.7% voting age)

31.7% White (37.3% voting age)

14.7% African American (14.7% voting age)

The State of Play

“Your Favorite Congresswoman”, Shelley Berkley, may soon be looking to move to greener pastures. And who can blame her? She’s back in the minority in The House. She doesn’t have the best relationship with Nancy Pelosi. In many ways, she’s boxed in… Unless she stomps outside that box in her signature bedazzled pumps and forges new ground with a Senate run.

So that may very well happen, and if it does we have yet another open seat battle here in Nevada! But unlike NV-02, all the drama will be in the Democratic primary.

Assuming Shelley runs for Senate, her Summerlin area stomping grounds are moved aside to NV-03 and NV-04, so NV-01 can become more of a minority-majority district and help the state’s Congressional Delegation better reflect the diversity of our fine state.

So instead, some heavily Latino Northeast precincts previously in NV-03 are moved here, even as other heavily Latino East Side precincts are shifted from NV-01 to the new NV-04 seat. Now, Latino and African American heavy North Las Vegas becomes the centerpiece of the district, complemented by the Democratic dominant inner city neighborhoods of Las Vegas.

See the recurring theme here? Notice how this affects the 2012 field below.

Who’s All In?

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) had been seen as a rising star for years, but now he’s made it to the top. He’s among the most powerful pols in Carson City today, as well as the highest ranked African American in state government alongside Supreme Court Chief Justice Michael Douglas. His career has been illustrious, but it hasn’t always been easy.

He’s now locked in a tough budget battle with Governor Brian Sandoval (R) and GOP legislators, and he is one of the very people overseeing this entire redistricting process. If he truly wants to run for Congress, he has to make miracles happen in Carson City this year, otherwise…

The Wild Cards

“Conventional Wisdom” here in Vegas may again be turned on its head. After all, this is now a Latino plurality seat. State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) knows this first hand as one of the youngest Senators, as someone raised in an immigrant Mexican American family who climbed his way all the way up here, and as someone who’s succeeded despite earning the ire of the once omnipotent Culinary 226. While Kihuen himself hasn’t expressed interest in running, especially after just being elected as State Senator, his name has been floated around.

State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) actually has signaled interest in running, but he’s probably too moderate to win the Democratic primary in this district.

And sorry, Republicans, but there are virtually no GOP candidates who even want to try here.

2010 US Senate Results

62.9% Reid (D)

32.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

67% Obama (D)

31% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+14

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

NV-04

(The Red District)

Population: 675,294

49.0% White (53.4% voting age)

27.0% Latino (23.2% voting age)

11.5% Asian American (12.0% voting age)

The State of Play

This is the story of “The Comeback Kid”. After being beat up and beat down, it’s time to rise again and shine in the glorious Mojave Desert Sun. But wait, whose comeback are we talking about?

Can it be Dina Titus‘? After all, she’s no stranger to comebacks. After her surprisingly-but-still-painfully close loss to Jim Gibbons in the 2006 Gubernatorial Election, she was written off for (politically) “dead”. But when Democrats wanted to contest NV-03 in 2008 (and Harry Reid’s political team wanted to do away with Jon Porter as a possible 2010 candidate against him) and their originally preferred candidate turned out to be a dud, they had nowhere else to go. Dina obliged, and she then found her redemption… Only to lose it again last year, and by less than 2,000 votes! But is Dina’s story really over?

Or can Rory Reid‘s find a new beginning? He was heralded for ending a painful period of local political corruption culminating in the saucy, racy “G Sting” FBI probe that took down a voting majority of Clark County Commissioners for taking bribes from stripper clubs out to put rival clubs out of business. He was commended for thinking ahead and pushing Clark County to take seriously matters of sustainable growth. He was seen as a real contender, then the 2010 Gubernatorial race happened and he was lost in translation as the Reno powers that be championed Brian Sandoval as their “anointed one”. It was so strange to see Rory’s political career cut short so abruptly last year, but can it be regrown?

UPDATE: Apparently the answer to my earlier question is a resounding Hell to the No! Sorry, but Rory did this to himself… Even if he broke no laws. Score one for Teams Titus and Buckley in Round 1.

Or can Barbara Buckley‘s be reborn? After all, she was seen as the most powerful Assembly Speaker seen in ages. She was the once dismissed “bleeding heart liberal” who then rocked the political establishment with legislative accomplishments on everything from patients’ rights to child welfare to home foreclosure mediation and prevention. And at one point, she looked to be quite the formidable candidate for Governor… Until she stepped aside for Rory Reid… But will she be so willing to step aside again?

Funny enough, all three of these big name Clark Democrats live in this newly created Congressional District. It starts in the more Democratic friendly Summerlin area neighborhoods, then leaps down to Buckley’s home base of Spring Valley, then crosses The 15 and Las Vegas Boulevard to jump into Dina’s East Side turf, then turns south to take in Rory’s ‘hood in the Green Valley part of Henderson. Either there will be some heated back room negotiations among party leaders on who gets this seat, or there will be a primary so exciting it may even eclipse the drama of the 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary that Dina wasn’t “supposed to win”.

The Wild Cards

But wait, the list of candidates isn’t even over yet! There’s another potential suitor possibly waiting in the wings. After Barbara Buckley was termed out of The Assembly last year, John Oceguera became the new Speaker. However, this gig won’t last long. He will be termed out himself next year. And even though he himself hasn’t suggested it, his name has also been rumored for a run here. If he wins, he will be Nevada’s first Native American member of Congress. His challenge will probably be succeeding in this legislative session (a shared goal with Horsford) and not letting the recent drama over Las Vegas/Clark County firefighter pay take him down (even though he’s actually a North Las Vegas firefighter, and they’ve had no labor trouble there).

On the Republican side, however, it’s slim pickings. Perhaps Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) or State Senator Michael Roberson (R-Henderson) can try, but both are far too conservative to even get close. After all, both only barely defeated their Democratic opponents last year.

2010 US Senate Results

55.9% Reid (D)

39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

60% Obama (D)

37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic for now… And probably eventually becoming Safe Democratic barring any major scandal or unusually strong GOP candidate.

So this is my first Nevada map, a map I had with state legislators and certain big name pols in mind. In the future, I may draw more maps under different scenarios, such as Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley staying put in The House, or what might happen should The Legislature come crashing down over the state budget, forcing the courts to draw the final lines.

Let me know what you think and/or if you have your own maps to share. 🙂

(Also at Nevada Progressive, and I have photos from Netroots CA at my Twitpic!)

OK, so I’ve had more time to process what happened. And I had a chance to talk with my old Cali friends at Netroots California last Saturday. And I came out surprisingly hopeful about our future.

While we did have some rough losses in Nevada, overall the picture here was much brighter than the rest of the country. Come on, all the incumbent statewide elected Democrats are reelected while Harry Reid won by over 5.6%! Reid outperformed almost all the public polls. What happened? How come “The Great Red Tide” that destroyed many Dems in many states east of The Rockies was barely a ripple here?

Basically, it comes down to what Harry Reid and Nevada Democrats did right. They invested in getting out the vote. They made our progressive message clear and concise AND accessible to regular voters. And they reached out to minority communities and actually IMPROVED Latin@ turnout over 2006 AND 2008!

It really comes down to this. Even in “wave elections”, “the wave” doesn’t have to be a monstrous tsunami. Good campaigns still matter. Good field still matters. And good messaging still matters. Harry Reid made all this happen and more.

Ralston explained this on Sunday.

The Reid organization’s Terminator-like single-mindedness, relentlessness and discipline turned preparation into the most satisfying victory of Reid’s career, a resurrection unthinkable most of the year by the Beltway cognoscenti. Combined with an Angle campaign that was thoroughly unprepared for the post-primary onslaught – think of a Little League batter facing Roy Halladay – that by the time the GOP nominee brought in some D.C. pros, the damage was insurmountable.

Interestingly, a similar dynamic appeared in California last Tuesday. More Latin@ voters turned out than ever before. And while Jerry Brown’s campaign (for CA Governor) didn’t exactly “strike while the iron was hot” on delivering his message or attacking Meg Whitman’s record, California unions did. And they delivered, big time!

And Barbara Boxer followed a very similar strategy to Reid’s in defining Carly Fiorina early as quite the unacceptable choice, delivering a progressive message in a practical way to attract voters (Hint: Make it real. Make it tangible. Make it about one’s pocketbook/wallet/purse.), and turning out Dem voters like crazy.

Again, it comes down to whether Democrats can field good candidates, deliver a good message, and turn out as many allied voters as possible. It worked in California and Nevada… But because the national Democratic groups failed in these categories and many other state parties were in turmoil, that’s why the results were so bad elsewhere.

Why didn’t other Senate candidates try to turn health care reform and good climate policy into winning arguments? Why didn’t other state parties invest more in good GOTV infrastructure? Why didn’t the DCCC and DSCC take a closer look at the winning arguments being made by Reid and Boxer?

That’s the challenge moving forward. President Obama needs to rethink his messaging. Democrats need to work harder on showing how good progressive policy means more and better jobs. And Democrats nationally need to look at places like Nevada and California to learn how to rebuild good, strong GOTV infrastructure. And if Obama can turn his numbers around and offer a strong and appealing progressive message that reveals the crap the GOP is truly offering and explains how to truly get our nation back on track, he can win handily again and Democrats can soon retake the House and keep the Senate.

It really comes down to that. Oh, and I had a great time in SF… 😉

But I’m hoping we have an even better time back in Vegas this weekend!