Tag: NM-02

It seems like it is once again time to take a look at who, exactly, is running for the four open seats (three House and one Senate) here in New Mexico.  The last update was more than a month ago!  Some important dates: the filing deadline is February 12.  The pre-primary nominating conventions are March 15.  The primaries are on June 3.

On to the races!

Senate Race

Democrats

• Tom Udall
  

• Leland Lehrman

Tom Udall is the odds-on favorite to win.  Lehrman will have trouble getting his way onto the primary ballot.

Republicans

• Steve Pearce
  

• Heather Wilson

These two candidates will be fighting it out.  Both are currently in the House and both are experience campaigners.  And, perhaps best for Democrats, neither are above a little bit of dirty politics — even in the primary.

For the Congressional races, go below the fold.

First Congressional District

Democrats

• Martin Heinrich
  

• Michelle Lujan-Grisham
  

• Robert Pidcock

Heinrich is the current favorite in this race.  He has the momentum, the endorsements and — this is important — his campaign seems to have a plan.  Lujan-Grisham has been largely our of the public eye.  And Pidcock… well, I really don’t know anything about him.

Republicans

• Darren White
  

• Joe Carraro

The two were involved in a PR disaster after their secret debate this weekend.  White is the favorite to win, and has the backing of the Republicans in DC.  But Carraro is outspoken and will make things interesting, if not competitive.

Second Congressional District

Democrats

• Al Kissling
  

• Bill McCamley
  

• Frank McKinnon
  

• Harry Teague

Harry Teague has the support of the oil and gas industry, which is a big boost in Southern New Mexico.  He’s a conservative Democrat, and will surely have a big bundle of cash.  McCamley will also have a good amount of cash to campaign in Southern New Mexico, and he has been on the campaign trail for a while.  He is going out to communities and speaking to people.  The Kissling and McKinnon seem to be fringe candidates at this point.

Republicans

• Bob Cornelius
  

• C Earl Greer
  

• Aubrey Dunn, Jr
  

• Ed Tinsley
  

• Monty Newman
  

• Greg Sowards
  

• Terry Marquardt

Yes, seven candidates for the Republicans.  I am not even going to attempt to delve into who is the favorite here… but my personal favorite is Greg Sowards, but only because of his campaign slogan.

Third Congressional District

Democrats

• Jon Adams
  

• Ben Ray Lujan
  

• Rudy Martin
  

• Harry Montoya
  

• Benny Shendo, Jr
  

• Don Wiviott

Lujan looks to be the favorite here.  He is hispanic and his father, the Speaker of the House, has northern New Mexico support.  But Wiviott has the cash, and has pledged to spend a big chunk of his own money on the campaign.  Benny Shendo, Jr is a Native American, and they comprise 19 percent of the district.  Very interesting.

Republicans

• Marco E. Gonzales
  

• Dan East

It doesn’t matter which one wins in June.  This seat will stay Democratic.

An effort of the New Mexico Netroots including Democracy for New Mexico and New Mexico FBIHOP.

For more, see Democracy for New Mexico’s post and words from one of the candidates himself, Martin Heinrich with guest blogs at both of the blogs.

We are in a unique situation in New Mexico.  There is an open Senate seat as well as three open House seats.  The other Senate seat is already held by a Democrat (Jeff Bingaman).  This means four out of five federal seats are up for grabs. In other words, we have an opportunity to make a True Blue New Mexico.  

Today, on January 23, the George W Bush administration, current and former employees alike, will do their best to get Republicans elected.  Dick Cheney will hold a fundraiser in DC for Senate candidate Steve Pearce.  He has already held  a similar DC fundraiser for Heather Wilson.  And none other than Karl Rove himself will headline a fundraiser today. Rove will be in Artesia, NM to raise money for the New Mexico Republican Party.

You can do your part by donating to great progressive Democratic candidates at our ActBlue page.  So why are we doing this drive now?

All this is money — which  will come from wealthy Republicans — will be used to blunt the possibility of a True Blue New Mexico.  So what can we do?  Show them their $5000/PAC, $2000/person dinners with Vice President Dick Cheney are no match for our people powered politics.

So who are the candidates we’re supporting with the True Blue New Mexico donation drive?  

For Senate, the choice is obvious.  Tom Udall is currently a true progressive voice in the House. Udall will be a true progressive voice in the Senate when he is New Mexico’s next Senator.  Not only will this be a great change from Sen. Pete Domenici, but much better than the two main Republican choices.  The ultra-conservative Steve Pearce and fake-moderate Heather Wilson would be disasters for New Mexico.

In the First Congressional District, Martin Heinrich is another great progressive voice.  As an Albuquerque city councilor, Heinrich spoke out against the War in Iraq when it was not a popular thing to do.  He has won environmental awards and has called for an Apollo-type program for energy independence.  And Heinrich spearheaded a successful effort to raise the minimum wage in Albuquerque.  He is a true progressive.

The same cannot be said of his likely general election opponent, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  White was the Bernalillo County Chair of the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004.  In other words, he is partially responsible for helping deliver the county to Bush in 2004.  He does not even have the illusion of moderation that Heather Wilson has; as one person told me, “He isn’t even Heather Wilson — he’s Steve Pearce.”  Not what the First Congressional District needs — now or ever.

In the Second Congressional District, we are lucky enough to have another great candidate in Bill McCamley.  McCamley has experience in Southern New Mexico; he is a Doña Ana County Commissioner and a New Mexico State Alum.  Lobo fans (like myself) will have to give him a pass on that last one, but only because he has great stances on the issues and would make a fine Representative.

McCamley’s Republican opponents will surely be ensnarled in a costly and bitter primary.  The Republicans see this as a safe Republican seat; but last election, it took an incumbent Republican (Pearce) a ten-to-one money advantage to reach 60 percent against an underfunded and unknown Democratic opponent.  This seat isn’t outside the realm of possibility, and if anyone can deliver it, it would be McCamley.

The Third Congressional District is a bit more muddled.  It’s a problem that most districts in the country would love to have: too many great progressive candidates any one of which can win the general.  So instead of asking people to donate to one progressive candidate in the primary, we ask that money be donated to the NM-03 Democratic Nominee Fund.  The money raised for this will go to the eventual Democratic nominee after the June 3 primary elections.

So once again, please donate to some great Democratic candidates and show  Dick Cheney and Karl Rove that they can’t decide who wins elections by top dollar fundraisers.

Speaker of the House Ben Lujan (D) says he will support easier ballot access once again according to Heath Haussamen.

“Yeah, I will support any possible way of getting more people to be able to participate in the process,” Lujan said. “The more the merrier.”

This is an about-face from previously when Lujan only grudgingly admitted it might be needed; when he said he would instead push for an “instant run-off”, and then only if no candidate received the 20 percent support necessary.

More under the fold.

Originally posted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Now, after political pressure from all sides, Lujan seems to be changing his tune a bit.  This change by Lujan just ahead of the January 15 start to the Legislative Session may be because of a potential backlash against his son, Ben Ray Lujan (D).  Ben Ray is running for Congress in the Third Congressional District, and is currently viewed as the frontrunner.  Because of that, he may be the one with the most to gain from less people on the primary ballot.

There is an additional hurdle to jump, however.  To implement such a bill before the June pre-primary nominating conventions, the bill would need to receive at least two-thirds of the votes in both the state House and Senate.  This is because it would be an emergency clause.

This is doable, however, because of broad bipartisan support for such a measure.  In the Senate, both party leaders support such a bill.  This is because the new rule could effect both Republicans and Democrats in the coming elections — Democrats in the Third Congressional District and Republicans in the Second Congressional District.

Lujan deciding to support such legislation should help.  Without the support of the the Speaker of the House, a bill has virtually no chance of being heard let alone passing.

Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope you all had a relaxing holiday season.  I’m feeling rested and refreshed, so let’s take a look at some of the recent developments in down-ballot races across the country.

• NY-19: Strike three!  After uber-wealthy self-funding Republican Andrew Saul pulled the plug on his congressional campaign against freshman Rep. John Hall after some shady ethics violations came to the fore, some Republicans hoped that former state assemblyman Howard Mills would be an adequate replacement.  Too bad he said no in late November.  The next great hope for the NRCC, assemblyman Greg Ball, announced yesterday that he won’t run, either.  This leaves the GOP’s ball in the hands of Iraq war vet and wingnut Kieran Lalor.  Will the Republicans really end up without a top flight challenger in a district that they held for 14 straight years before Hall’s win?

  Perhaps now is a good time to revisit Ball’s sage words from November, when the GOP line on the NY-19 ballot was his for the taking:

  Ball is concerned about the electoral outlook for the GOP in the 2008 election cycle.

  “George Bush has not only hurt the Republican Party, he’s left the nation without leadership,” the Republican state lawmaker said. “It’s going to be a tough year to run as a Republican at the national level.”





• IN-02: Speaking of the GOP’s bare shelf, a whole year has passed and Indiana Republicans are still lacking a challenger to frosh Rep. Joe Donnelly.  Has NRCC Chair Tom Cole really gone through his entire Rolodex of ethically-challenged Republican millionaires who live in this R+4.3 district? (H/T: Blue Indiana)




• Kentucky: The Lexington Herald-Leader’s blog has a thorough run-down of all the upcoming down-ballot special elections in the weeks and months ahead in Kentucky.  The first two happen next week.




• NM-Sen: New Mexico’s very own Dr. Doolittle, political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has been talking to “the alligators” again, and this time they’re telling him that Steve Pearce outraised Heather Wilson in the fourth quarter by a margin of $450,000 to $350,000.  Seems kinda low-ish to me, but I suppose that’s probably the end result of having the state’s GOP money divided between two of their heaviest hitters.




• NM-02: State Rep. Joe Cervantes (D) has dropped out of the race to replace Steve Pearce, leaving former Lea County Commissioner and oilman Harry Teague and Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley as the only top-tier candidates left in the Dem field.  Monahan thinks the news will favor Teague, a conservative Democrat, but McCamley’s fundraising has been solid and he’s been running for quite some time.  It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out.




• MN-03: MNPublius is hearing rumors that GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement is definite.  Let’s hope that they’re true!




• IL-18: Aaron Schock, a 14-year old GOP state legislator and nuclear proliferation advocate, is doing his best to avoid any foreign policy debates with his primary opponents for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ray LaHood.  I guess Schock has now fully realized that his “ideas” of selling nukes to Taiwan don’t play so well outside of his local college Republican chapter.




• IN-07: State Rep. Joe Orentlicher is the first to file for the Democratic nomination to succeed the late Rep. Julia Carson.  Carson’s grandson, newly-elected Indianapolis city councilor will make his decision soon, but it’s looking like he’ll throw his hat into the ring.  It’s also looking like the special election to fill the seat may be pushed back until May.

After the announcement of Martin Chavez’ departure, to start the weekend, it only seemed fitting to end the weekend with another rundown of just who is running for the House and Senate in 2008.  With all a Senate seat up for grabs along with all three House seats, it promises to be an exciting year in New Mexico politics.

The primaries will be held on June 3rd for all these races, but the preprimary nominating conventions will be held March 15.  It is at the preprimary nominating convention where the candidates attempt to get on their party’s ballot for the primary.

We’ll start with the big race, where it looks like the field is set — though that’s what I said last month and we’ve had a big change since then.

Senate

For the Democrats, the clear frontrunner is Tom Udall, who only gained more momentum when Martin Chavez dropped out of the race.  Also in the race is alternative magazine publisher Leland Lehrman who is running a campaign from the far-left.

On the Republican side of things, it is Representative Steve Pearce against Representative Heather Wilson.  Both are, like Udall, giving up their House seats to take a run at being a US Senator.  

There is an Independent in the race, Zach Boatman, a teacher at Santa Fe High School.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District seat is in central New Mexico and serves Albuquerque. It has been held by Republicans since the state received a third Congressional District in 1969.  The seat has been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998.  Wilson has been rocked by scandals, but is now running for the open Senate seat (above).  The district has a PVI of D+2.4.

The Democrats in the race are led by Martin Heinrich, with Michelle Lujan-Grisham a step below the former Albuquerque city councilor.  Two lesser-tier challengers are also in the race, Jon Adams and Jason Call.

Prominent author Alisa Valdez-Rodgriguez is also considering a run at the seat.

For Republicans, the former Bernalillo County Bush/Cheney campaign chairman and sheriff Darren White is the frontrunner, followed by the, shall we say, outspoken state Sen. Joe Carraro.  

Also considering the race, though it looks increasingly less-likely she will enter with each passing day, is Janice Arnold-Jones.

Second Congressional District

New Mexico’s Second Congressional District encompasses much of New Mexico south of I-40, including the cities of Las Cruces, Roswell, Carlsbad, Hobbs and Socorro.  The seat has been in the hands of Republicans since 1981 and Rep. Steve Pearce has held the seat since 2003.  Pearce is running for the Senate seat (above).  The district’s PVI is R+5.7.

For Democrats, the crowded field of challengers is led by State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, who had been mentioned as a possible challenger to Pearce for previous cycles.  Also in the race are Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County commissioner Harry Teague. Retired Roswell school teacher Frank McKinnon and Presbyterian minister Al Kissling round out the field of official entrants in the race; the last two will have a tough time reaching the 20 percent number at the preprimary convention.

Two Democrats still have not made a decision on running; State Sen. John Arthur Smith and State Rep. Jeff Steinborn.

For Republicans, this is a chance of a lifetime; it is a seat that is solidly Republican and has been held by a far-right Republican for years.  Former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius, rancher Aubrey L. Dunn Jr. and businessman Ed Tinsley have all officially thrown their hat in the ring for the Republican nomination.  

The Republicans who have been reported to be considering taking a run at the seat are Domenici staffer Clint Chandler, Sierra County GOP chair C. Earl Greer and former state representative Terry Marquardt.  No matter what, this looks to be a crowded primary race on both sides.

Third Congressional District

New Mexico’s Third Congressional District came into existence in 1983 and has been held by Democrats ever since then except for a term from 1997-1999.  The district covers most of Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, most of Rio Rancho, Taos and Farmington.  Rep. Tom Udall has held this seat since 1999 and is leaving the seat to run for Senate (above).  The PVI for the district is D+5.5.

This is the seat most friendly to Democrats in the state, and is considered a “safe Democrat hold” by all political observers.  In the race so far are Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott, Santa Fe County commissioner Harry Montoya and  secretary for the state’s Indian Affairs Department Benny Shendo Jr.  

But the big name in the room is a Democrat who is still officially in the “consideration” stages — Public Regulation Commission chairman Ben Ray Lujan.  Lujan’s father is Ben Lujan, the Speaker of the state House.  Also considering are Santa Fe County sheriff Greg Solano and former state Rep. Patsy Trujillo.

As of yet, no Republicans have officially entered the race to be the sacrificial lamb to take on whichever Democrat wins the nomination.  But considering are LANL engineer Ron Dolin, and state Rep. Brian Moore.  Dolin lost to Udall by an incredible margin in 2006.

The nomination to succeed Rep. Tom Udall is not the only prize that ambitious New Mexico Democrats are competing for this primary season — the nomination to contest the Republican-tilting open seat of Rep. Steve Pearce is drawing plenty of Democratic names.  Here’s the Dem field so far:

Bill McCamley, a Doña Ana County Commissioner who’s been running for most of the year.

Al Kissling, a retired Presbyterian minister and the ’06 nominee.

Harry Teague, a former Lea County Commissioner and oilman, known as a conservative Democrat.  He raked in $175,000 at his first fundraiser and also has the capability (and willingness) to self-fund.

Joseph Cervantes, a state Representative, who announced his candidacy this evening.  Cervantes may have the advantage of being the only Hispanic name on the ballot in the primary.

Frank McKinnon, a businessman from Roswell.

I don’t know any of these candidates well enough to ascertain “electability”, but a few look like credible options.

No doubt about it: at a PVI of R+5.7, this is a pretty red district.  But the cash-strapped NRCC is stressed about the possibility of needing to mount a defense here.  Perhaps one of these Democrats will confirm the GOP’s worst fears.

One wrinkle, though, as mentioned in the diaries by fbihop:

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.

The announcements for people running for New Mexico’s Second Congressional District open seat are starting to come in at a fast and furious pace.  The current Representative, Steve Pearce (R), is leaving the seat to take a crack at the now-open Senate seat.

Today, State Rep. Jose Campos and restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley announced their intentions to run.  Jose Campos has political experience as a State Rep for four years and mayor of Santa Rosa for nearly a decade.  Tinsley’s political experience comes in the form of running against Pearce in 2002, when he lost to Pearce while running for the open seat.

More under the fold.  Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Campos joins fellow Democrats Bill McCamley and Al Kissling in the race.  Another Democrat in the race is Frank McKinnon, a former schoolteacher.

They are expected to be joined soon by State Rep Joseph Cervantes and (officially) by Harry Teague.  Teague already told Democratic officials of his intention to run, but will make it public within the coming week.  And Cervantes, who has been rumored in every cycle in the recent past to run for the seat, is widely expected to also throw his hat in the ring.

On the Republican side of things, Tinsley is the first announced candidate, but will not be the last to opt for a shot at the open seat. 

Sid Goddard, chairman for the Republican Party of Doña Ana County, said he’s aware of about eight to 12 Republicans who are considering joining the race, but, other than Tinsley, none has stepped forward definitively yet. Potential candidates are likely gauging support, their competition and their odds, he said.

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.  Previously, candidates who did not reach the 20 percent threshold were able to gather signatures on a petition to get their name on the ballot. 

No longer. And with three Democratic candidates already in the race, two more ready to jump in and possibly double-digit numbers of Republicans… things could get interesting before the March pre-Primary convention.

Actually, things seem to be getting interesting already when it comes to the Second Congressional District.

Could the Democratic primary for the right to contest the open seat of Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico get a little more crowded soon?  Heath Haussamen has the goods.

State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a respected moderate, will announce his intentions on November 4th.  Cervantes could be an interesting candidate with the potential to tap into the sizable Latino vote in the district.  Last week he sounded optimistic about a run:

Cervantes said he is “doing what it takes right now, at this stage, and it would be a great privilege to represent the district. I think the country clearly is looking for change and I’ve worked for seven years in a legislative body doing the same thing in Santa Fe.”

Cervantes would join ’06 nominee Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague in the Democratic primary.

While this R+5.7 district doesn’t sit at the top of the list of Democratic pick-up opportunities this cycle, it’s worth mentioning that the NRCC was trying their best to prevent Pearce from giving Democrats another open seat opportunity here.  An anonymous national GOP official quoted by Haussamen summed up the situation for prospective local Republican candidates in the district:

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Sounds like another opportunity for Democrats to test the limits of the cash-strapped NRCC.

Race Tracker: NM-02

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.

Stuart Rothenberg approvingly quotes this anonymous bit of advice from a Republican consultant to the GOP on S-CHIP (sub. req.):

So what advice would this Republican give his party’s Members of Congress? “If I were in a swing district, I’d vote to override. There’s no way I’d take a bullet on this. But if I were in a good Republican district, I’d vote to sustain the veto.”

Leaving aside the obvious questions of the morality of this stance, does this even make for good advice?  Amy Walter intimates that the answer is no (sub. req.):

But the political environment is actually worse than it was at this point two years ago, making it very dangerous to assume that a GOP-leaning district will perform exactly as it had four years ago. A depressed GOP base, a very motivated Democratic base and independents still sour on Republicans all works against a return to normal. (Emphasis added.)

And today, a New York Times article on how badly the GOP is hemorrhaging over its opposition to health care for children includes this aside:

Worried about increasing departures, the House leadership has been encouraging Representative Steve Pearce of New Mexico to forgo a run for the Senate and avoid opening a second Republican-held House seat in a state where Democrats are gaining strength. A fellow Republican, Representative Heather A. Wilson, is already running for the seat being vacated by Senator Pete V. Domenici.

Pearce’s district, NM-02, is R+5.7. It went for Bush by a wide 58-41 margin in 2004. Pearce won with 60% of the vote in 2004, and, despite the huge Dem year, with the same total in 2006. In other words, this is not ordinarily a district you’d consider competitive.

But the fact that the NRCC is begging Pearce to stay put says otherwise. It gives a lot of credence to Walter’s observation, and makes you wonder about the kind of advice Republicans on the Hill are getting – and listening to. The NRCC seems to understand what time it is, but it sure looks like a lot of GOPers are happy to let themselves get surprised by another potential blue wave.