Tag: DE-Sen

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Castle (R) 44%

Biden (D) 36%

“Mike Castle has served in statewide office now for almost 30 years and that higher level of familiarity with Delaware voters gives him an advantage over Beau Biden,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Biden’s numbers would surely improve as he became more well known to voters in a statewide campaign but I’m sure the Democrats would nonetheless be quite happy for Congressman Castle to stay where he is.”

44-36 strikes me as kinda lousy considering Castle is an institution in the state. Not that many expect him to run anyway but on this evidence even if he does I think Biden would still win quite easily. Against anyone but Castle it is over before it starts obviously.

From Roll Call:

Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) announced Monday that she would appoint Ted Kaufman, a former top aide to Vice President-elect Joseph Biden, to fill Biden’s seat in the Senate.

In the diaries, Zac speculates that Kaufman will be merely a placeholder for Beau in 2010. Maybe.

A short bio of this dude is available here.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: Ben Smith is reporting that both Minner and Kaufman confirmed at the Kaufman announcement that he would not seek reelection. (Interestingly, Smith also phrases it as “serve out the remainder of Biden’s term,” which runs through 2014, although because it’s an appointment there’s also a special election in 2010. So I don’t know what exactly he means.) Also, it’s kind of strange that Minner is making this announcement, since incoming governor Markell was signaling that he’d move his inauguration up to midnight on Jan. 20 to be able to name the replacement so Biden could remain in the Senate until the moment of being sworn in as VP. It could be some sort of Biden/Minner end-run around Markell, with Biden retiring earlier… or maybe it was all resolved amicably behind the scenes. Time will tell.

LATER UPDATE (James): The New York Times has a bit more:

In his statement, Mr. Biden did not hide the fact that he would like to see his son take the seat, but the younger Biden said he would not accept an appointment and wanted to fulfill a military obligation with the Delaware Army National Guard in Iraq.

“If he chooses to run for the Senate in the future, he will have to run and win on his own,” the elder Biden said in his statement, noting that the appointment of Mr. Kaufman will mean a “level playing field” for those who choose to compete for the seat in two years. “The voters will make that decision.”

The supposed heir apparent to Joe Biden’s Senate seat, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, has pulled his name from consideration for the soon-to-be-open seat, according to Chris Cillizza.

This actually may not come as that big a surprise, as Beau Biden will be deploying to Iraq for a year as a military lawyer and will not be available to serve in the Senate during that time. Importantly, the younger Biden did not rule out running for the seat in the 2010 special election, when he would be done with his military obligation.

So, this really doesn’t alter the conundrum that we talked about last week facing incoming governor Jack Markell (or outgoing governor Ruth Ann Minner, depending on the order in which the handovers happen): does Lt. Governor (and gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney get the nod, with the expectation of a permanent post, or does an elder statesman placeholder get the seat for two years, followed by Beau Biden (or a battle royale between Biden and Carney)?

It’s a done deal – Biden is running for another term:

Biden spokesman David Wade said Sunday that Biden will continue his Senate re-election campaign. Biden is expected to defeat Republican challenger Christine O’Donnell in November.

Assuming the Obama-Biden ticket is successful in November (let’s hope), Biden will resign his Senate seat after being sworn in for another term in early January. The task will then fall to outgoing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to appoint a successor for Biden. Possible contenders include Delaware AG Beau Biden and the loser of the state’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Markell. However, the younger Biden’s senatorial aspirations (assuming he has any) may be complicated by his deployment to Iraq in October.

Now that we’ve all caught Biden fever, our next question is: What will happen to Joe Biden’s Senate seat?

Well, a number of things could happen. Biden is up for re-election this year, and if he wanted to, Delaware election law allows him to remain on the November ballot. In that case, if the Obama-Biden ticket wins in November, Biden can take the Senate oath and then resign, allowing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, in her last days in office (her term expires on January 20, 2009 — the same day as the presidential inauguration), to appoint a replacement who would serve until 2010. However, it’s not obvious to me that we want to endure the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee appearing to be “hedging his bets” once again.

If Biden pulls his name from the ballot, the party would (I assume) be able to name a replacement candidate. The conventional wisdom suggests that the go-to guy to fill this slot is none other than Beau Biden, Joe’s son and Attorney General of Delaware. The younger Biden would be a strong bet to hold this seat.

Could the GOP possibly make a race of this? It’s difficult to make a case in their favor here, even if the elder Biden is off the ballot. Despite not being an overwhelmingly blue state in the most recent presidential elections (Kerry won the state by 7 points in 2004, and Gore by 13), the GOP bench in Delaware is abysmally weak. It’s so bad, in fact, that the state GOP is not even seriously contesting the open seat gubernatorial election this year.

The only conceivable way that the GOP could make a real race of this would be if they nominated the state’s at-large Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former Governor who has bucked the state’s blue trend to hold on to his House seat with ease. However, Castle is 69 years old, and suffered some minor strokes in the fall of 2006. Is he really up for six years in the Senate at this point? Castle has expressed reluctance to take on a Senate bid, but has not conclusively ruled one out, to the best of my knowledge. Still, this option seems like a long shot at best for the GOP.

The Delaware GOP does have a candidate on the ballot for this race already – conservative talking head Christine O’Donnell. With Delaware’s filing deadline having passed in July, she would have to agree to pull out of the race in order for the GOP to tap a stronger candidate – but the GOP’s recruiting prospects here do not look promising right now, especially when you consider the failed track record of NRSC Chair John Ensign this cycle.

This seat is very likely a safe hold, but we’ll have to see which path Joe Biden chooses first before we can paint a clearer picture.

Update: Another option, as mentioned in the comments but one I glossed over last night, is for Democrats to fill Biden’s slot with the loser of Delaware’s gubernatorial primary this year between Lt. Gov. John Carney and State Treasurer Jack Markell — both seem to be sensible choices, especially as Beau Biden is currently serving soon to be deployed to Iraq.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate.  Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign.  Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters.  I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run.  But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.

Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid.  So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present.  Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.”  In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.

Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now.  Still zip from the DE-GOP.

Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg.  He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate.  Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.

Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand.  It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent.  The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Um, yeah.

Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:

Bobby Jindal is running for Governor.  GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running.  GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand.  And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself.  In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.

Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu.  I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers.  The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.

Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:

Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000.  The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.

It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling.  But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.

Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.”  The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer.  For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.

New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook.  Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth.  Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces.  While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.

Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate.  Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart.  With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.

West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:

With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller.  In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing.  Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.

Nothing has changed since that point.

So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition.  Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range.  And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat).  With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.