Tag: economy

Blocked predatory lending crackdown, wants more giveaways to Wall Street

A devastating week for the U.S. financial sector has underscored the danger of congressional candidate Kirk Schuring’s economic policies for working families in the 16th Congressional District and across America.

Democratic candidate John Boccieri said today:

“Kirk Schuring’s economic philosophy is as bankrupt as Lehman Brothers. He is not offering the change that middle class families need to bounce back from this economic crisis.”

Schuring is staking his campaign on the same failed policies that caused the crisis by constantly siding with Wall Street over Main Street. His policy stances will actually worsen the impact of economic instability for middle class families.

FACT: Schuring blocked crackdowns on predatory lenders in the state legislature. In 2001, he helped push through a sham reform bill supported by predatory lenders in order to prevent Ohio’s local communities from regulating out-of-control predatory mortgage loans. HB 386; “Home Security,” The Columbus Dispatch, 9/21/05

FACT: Schuring’s top economic priority is giving more tax breaks to the Wall Street firms that created this financial mess. Corporate tax giveaways are the very first item in Schuring’s “jobs plan” – but he has not proposed a single tax cut directed at the middle class. www.schuringforcongress.com/issues, accessed 9/24/08

FACT: Schuring’s response to the crisis focuses only on helping Wall Street. In an interview on WHBC this morning, Schuring did not once call for direct assistance to the innocent homeowners at the heart of this crisis.

FACT: While Schuring claims to oppose out-of-control spending in Washington, he insists on an open-ended commitment to spending $5,000 per second in Iraq, which has already led to the largest budget deficit in American history, forced the government to borrow billions from nations like China, and left us with limited resources to stabilize our struggling economy. “16th District Notebook,” The Canton Repository, 9/21/08

FACT: Schuring has said “I think everything should be on the table” when it comes to Social Security. “Kirk Schuring on Social Security/Medicare,” accessed 9/24/08 Schuring’s Republican allies in Washington have been trying for years to turn Social Security over to Wall Street, and Schuring’s stunningly anti-senior record in the state legislature makes clear that he can’t be trusted to look out for older Americans in Congress. “Boccieri Calls for Protecting Social Security on 73rd Anniversary“

Let the facts speak for themselves; Kirk Schuring’s policy positions are not what the working families of Ohio’s 16th Congressional District need in the United States Congress.

Today, a continuation of a short series looking into the factors affecting the current political climate.  It’s no secret that the country isn’t too happy about the economy, the war in Iraq, and the direction the country is headed in.  But for me at least, I like to see the data.  First, the right track/wrong track question:

Click to enlarge.

The trend is clear, the numbers are huge: almost three quarters say we’re off on the wrong track.  Much more below.

It is also interesting to see that there was a clear uptick in those that say the country is on the right track just before the 2004 and 2006 elections, but not in Fall 2005 or 2007.  It looks like we’re on track for another one now in 2008 as well.  Campaign dollars at work?  Optimism that one’s preferred party will win?

A longer look back shows the wrong track numbers were also about this high for the 1976, 1980, 1992, and 1994 elections:

Click to enlarge.

Iraq

Click to enlarge.

The public continues to believe that the war in Iraq is not worth it.  There’s not much news here over the past year; the economy has taken precedence in the minds of many voters more recently.

The Economy

There have been dramatic changes in the perception of the economy in the past year (I’m not going to go into much of the actual economic data; after all, in politics, perception is reality).  The numbers simply dove off a cliff.  About 80% think the economy is not doing that great (left) and hardly anybody thinks it’s getting better (right):

Click to enlarge.

These numbers are just as bad as they were in 1980 and 1990:

Click to enlarge.

Rising prices surely are contributing to opinions of the economy; here’s the price for milk and gas over the past few years:

Click to enlarge.

Trust and the Issues

So which party do voters trust on the issues they see as important?  Rasmussen has been asking that question every month for more than a year now, so we can see how things have developed:

There’s nothing major, although it looks like some trends away from Democrats on Iraq and national security, while there’s been some improvement on the economy.  At the same time, Rasmussen (and others) also show that the importance of Iraq in voter’s minds has been decreasing while the economy takes precedence.

In other words, from the perspective of issues the voters care about, the political environment is becoming only more favorable to Democrats.

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Polling numbers can be found at pollingreport.com unless otherwiese noted. This is the second in a series looking at the evolution of the political scene since the 2004 and 2006 elections.  The first discussed Bush’s approval ratings.  Tomorrow, information on party approval, identification and some House numbers; after that, a look at fundraising.  Cross posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

John Boccieri has a plan to reform America’s trade policies and restore our competitiveness.

Reforming Trade and Restoring America’s Competitiveness

Unfair trade practices have had a devastating impact on our local communities. Since 2001, the state of Ohio has lost more than 102,000 jobs to China alone – the 5th highest amount of all 50 U.S. states.

Two thirds of U.S. jobs lost to China have come from our manufacturing sector, which won’t surprise local community members who have seen factories closed and jobs shipped away.

John Boccieri believes that America can become a strong competitor again, but we need a major change in our approach to the global economy.

Here is what Senator Major John Boccieri(D-Alliance) has laid out for us:

Put America first when it comes to trade:

The fast-growing economies of countries like China would collapse if U.S. consumers weren’t buying their goods. Instead of rubberstamping bad trade deals written by international corporate lobbyists, leaders in Washington should use that leverage to negotiate fair trade deals that benefit America’s workforce.

Of course, John’s opponent thinks our first priority should be extending the “Bush-onomics” of “lowering the capital gains tax”. This additional tax cut does nothing more than lower federal revenue, line the pockets of businesses, and the wealthiest of investors.

Enhance and enforce fair international trade standards:

We should use our global economic leverage to increase labor, human-rights and environmental standards around the world, not weaken our own protections in a race to the bottom. We should push countries like China to stop manipulating currency values, open their markets to U.S. exports, and honor and enforce standards that will level the playing field for American workers.

Of course, John’s opponent thinks our second priority should be a “crack down on the frivolous lawsuits”. We’re not stupid; this is simply a code phrase for “Tort Reform”, lowering the penalty against manufacturers of faulty products that injure, maim, and kill unsuspecting consumers and workers to just $250,000. Is this “fair compensation” for the life of your family’s bread-winner?

Protect the health and safety of American consumers:

Higher international trade standards won’t just help U.S. workers – they will protect American consumers from lead-tainted toys, poisonous pet food, or other dangers of cheap but poorly-regulated overseas production.

Gosh, I think I just covered this one with my last comment! Just for the sake of fairness, his opponent suggests “Regulatory Reform”. “Tort Reform” becomes an insurance policy for this irresponsible cousin.

Restore fiscal responsibility in Washington:

President Bush will leave us with the largest deficit in American history, and his reckless spending has driven us deeply into debt. Other nations have bought huge amounts of our debt to manipulate international currency values to their advantage. Restoring spending sanity in Washington is an important step to improving our balance of trade.

John’s opponent claims he will “fight to restore the fiscal discipline for which Republicans were once known”. This leads to a serious question; “Just how do you propose to “restore fiscal responsibility” while we spend $12 billion per month on The Iraq War?”

Reward investment in America:

We should reward companies that find innovative ways to create jobs and compete right here in the United States. These businesses should receive tax breaks, first priority for state and federal contracts, and other benefits to help them grow and succeed.

John’s opponent suggests “reforming unfair trade laws” that were put on the “fast-track” by the Bush/Cheney administration. Wouldn’t we find this much simpler to achieve had we never entered into these “trade agreements” without first making sure America’s middle-class working families were put first and foremost?

Turn around our education system:

America has fewer students graduating from high school today than we did a generation ago. We need to put a diploma and college or skills training within reach of every single young American by making smart investments in education, expanding much-needed grants and loans, and offering scholarships in exchange for public service.

John’s opponent proposes to “shift the burden of funding from property taxes to sales and income taxes”. Does it make sense that John’s opponent wants to lower taxes for the wealthiest investors and raise taxes on the working middle class while we spend $12 Billion per month in Iraq?

Support and invest in displaced workers:

Workers whose jobs have been outsourced often lose their health insurance and pensions, too, and even if they find new jobs they rarely pay as well. We need effective workforce retraining programs, stronger protections for pensions, and a health care system that gives every American coverage that is portable, affordable, and not subject to pre-existing conditions.

John’s opponent proposes to “Create Economic Empowerment Zones”. “Strengthening partnerships between industry and government” reads like the lobbyists win, again. Albeit, the “free market principles”, such as health care savings accounts, tax credits, and employer reimbursement reads much like the “Bush Privatization Model”.

Make our economy work for all Americans again:

We have to end the disconnect between booming corporate profits and stagnating middle class incomes. When CEO salaries rise, workers’ paychecks and benefits should grow, too.

“Senator Schuring is welcome to keep defending Bob Taft’s policies and looking out for the corporate executives who fund his campaign. I’m focused on relief for the working families who are being hit hardest by our economic crisis.” ~ Senator John Boccieri, July 23, 2008

Invest in industries that can’t be outsourced:

Producing our own energy here in America is a matter of national security. The Apollo Alliance estimates that the development of renewable domestic energy sources like wind farms, solar arrays, biofuel crops, and geothermal, nuclear, and clean coal plants would create more than 23,000 new “green collar” jobs in Ohio. Half a million more jobs could see wage and benefit growth from those investments.

Industries like this are the key to new jobs and prosperity for generations of Americans to come.

It’s a 4355 mile commute to ANWR and if traffic is in your favor you might make it there in 90 hours!

Cross posted at Blue Jersey.

American families are hurting because our economy is hurting. Just in the past six months, we’ve seen almost half a million American jobs disappear. To take a longer view, George W. Bush’s administration has seen the weakest job growth, less than half of one percent per year, of any President since Herbert Hoover. The Bush-Smith record on jobs is abysmal. By contrast, under Bill Clinton jobs grew at five times that rate (2.5% average growth per year). And no one can accuse Chris Smith of having supported Bill Clinton.

More after the jump.

Job losses are one problem, and inflation is another. During the past twelve months, wages have risen by 2.8%. While that sounds good, inflation has jumped 4%, which means that the average person who has actually had a job has had his or her salary cut by more than 1% over the past year. It’s worth mentioning that the average American family’s annual household income is actually lower now by about $1000 compared to when George Bush took office seven years ago, while health insurance premiums have doubled (from $6000 to $12,000 per year) and, as we all know, the price of a gallon of gas has tripled. American families are losing ground. We need to do something, and we need to do it now.

President Bush and his allies in Congress blocked an attempt by progressives to extend unemployment benefits, on a temporary basis during this difficult time, by an additional twenty six weeks. All they would allow is thirteen more weeks. When breadwinners lose their jobs, families lose more than money, they can lose health insurance, they can fall behind on mortgage payments, they can lose a sense of security and well-being. That’s why I opposed George W. Bush, and support extending unemployment benefits by an additional twenty-six weeks.

One of the other key problems hurting families and hurting the broader economy is the housing and mortgage crisis. Homeowners, too many of whom were sold mortgages by brokers using deceptive practices, can’t make their payments because they lose their jobs or because of rising costs of living (or both). This leads to more foreclosures, which then hurts the value of everyone else’s homes, leaving many of us with negative equity. We have a vicious cycle that has to be broken.

It didn’t have to be this way. George Bush and his supporters in Congress, like Chris Smith, turned a blind eye to the excesses in the housing and mortgage market. Smith voted to deregulate the financial services industry in 1999, opening the door for the Wild West lending practices of the Bush years that helped bring about the subprime mortgage crisis [S. 900, Vote #570, 11/4/99] Smith, Christopher (NJ/R) Y. It’s par for the course when dealing with Republican mismanagement.

More broadly, we need to have an economy that grows, and whose growth does not only benefit those who are already wealthy. I know that working people’s energy and productivity drive economic growth, and I’ll fight to make economic growth work for all families. That’s why I’m running for Congress.

Please visit our website and consider making a contribution. To volunteer, email ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com.

Crossposted at Daily Kos and EENR Blog.  I didn’t see much discussion of this race, so thought this might be helpful for readers here.

Most of you probably remember me from all of the hard work I put in blogging about Rick Vilello, former candidate for the PA-05 nomination.  Well, during that time I also got very sick.  So sick that I was unable to go to work and they eventually had to let me go.  The good news is that my sickness was apparently an allergic reaction to something in the area, and now that I have left the area, I’m no longer sick.  I’m returning to the PA-06 and noticed that there has not been a single diary on our very progressive candidate down there.  I would like to rectify that situation.  Bear in mind that I do not work for the Bob Roggio campaign, although I do look forward to volunteering for it.

First off, I would like to include a link to Bob Roggio’s website.  Feel free to check in early and often.

Bob Roggio for Congress

So who is Bob Roggio?  Aside from being the next Congressman from the PA-06, he has had many roles.  He was a successful businessman, a member of the military, and a political activist.  He is also graduated from Penn State, and the story of this degree, in my opinion, speaks to his character more than anything else.  

When Bob was 21, his father suddenly passed away.  In order to help support his mother and the rest of his family, he dropped out of college to work full time.  In addition, he joined the Army Reserves.  During this time, Bob began working at Zenith Products Corporation.  Over a 30 year career, he became a vice-president and a principal owner, all without receiving his college degree.  At the end of his career, he and the rest of the owners of Zenith sold the company in 1994.  At this time, Bob could have just retired, but he didn’t.  First, he went back and got the degree he gave up on so early in his life.  Then, he expanded the dedication to public service that had been a part of his life all along.

In 2004, he was a critical part of the effort to deliver Philadelphia, and thus Pennsylvania, for John Kerry.  In 2006, he was called upon to help send Bob Casey to Washington.  And today, he is answering that call to public service once again by running against Jim Gerlach in the PA-06.

Many of you may be saying, “That’s all well and good, but where does he stand on the issues?”  I can honestly tell you that he is right on the issues as well.  He wants to bring our troops home and knows that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake.  He wants to develop alternative energy sources and help us to become independent from foreign oil.  He believes that everyone deserves health care they can afford.  He believes in a woman’s right to choose.  He also believes that we need to spend money on our crumbling infrastructure so that we can have more and better jobs again.

So there we are.  This is Bob Roggio in a nutshell.  I’ll write more about him once I get back to the district full time.  I’m still recovering, so it might be a while.  Until then, please stop by Bob’s website.  And if you believe that the PA-06 deserves progressive leadership as much as I do, please visit this Act Blue page.  Thanks for stopping by!

The reviews are in, and consumer spending this holiday season was up a mere 3.6 percent over the year before.  It was the weakest increase in at least four years, as families purchased fewer presents to put under the tree — and spent one-third of that increase on gasoline.

The news is the latest evidence that the free spending fueled by Washington’s aimless policies in Iraq has turned our economy into the equivalent of a grade-B horror flick come to life — Return of the Living Debt.

While the Bush-Cheney administration and its allies such as Rep. Mike McCaul squander more than $3 billion of our tax dollars every week in Iraq, economic security in central Texas communities continues to suffer.  Job creation is slowing down, unemployment is rising, and debt-driven growth is bottoming out.  The world’s first trillion-dollar war, almost all of it borrowed, is creating economic casualties here at home as the new year gets underway.

In addition, the collapse of our nation’s mortgage and credit markets is now rippling through the economy.  At least two million middle-class families will probably to lose their homes to foreclosure.  

Apparently following the example set by Mr. McCaul’s political bosses in Washington, D.C., consumers have borrowed against their homes and maxed out their credit cards.  But as the lackluster recent holiday sales show, we aren’t borrowing to buy widescreen TVs or other luxury items.  We’re going into debt to cover escalating health care costs, soaring college tuition rates, and to pay for gas to get to jobs, while our paychecks are stagnating.  

No wonder economic security is now the top issue this election year. Merely breaking even has never been an acceptable notion for Americans — especially when one of the culprits is the war in Iraq, which has not only lost mainstream support but is helping to increase the highest national debt in history.

Here is some of what Washington should be doing to improve middle-class economic security:

• Universal health care.  These days, access to high-quality, low-cost health care should be a right, not a privilege. I support a plan to leverage down health costs by creating a single nationwide risk pool, to guarantee open disclosure of all prices so that we know what a pill costs before swallowing it, to insist on unitary pricing so that everyone pays the same price for the same product or service, and a renewed commitment to insuring every child.

• Energy independence.  Invest in alternative sources of energy.  Wind, solar, geo-thermal, bio-diesel, and other alternative energy technologies are an opportunity for the U.S. to become a global leader again.  The result?  Greater energy independence, fewer energy costs, and the creation of sustainable jobs.  Repealing taxpayer subsidies for polluters will improve our economy, clean up our environment, and strengthen our national and economic security.

• Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit.  This pro-work, pro-family IRS program, first created by Ronald Reagan, helps middle- and low-income working families obtain federal tax credits.  Unlike tax cuts for the wealthy, the EITC puts money directly into local economies.  Last year, 2.1 million Texas recipients qualified for more than $4.3 billion in refunds, with the average return coming to nearly $2,000.  This money is spent in local businesses on school supplies, small appliances, vehicle repairs, and other good or services that may have been deferred during the rest of the year for lack of spending cash.

• Invest in education.  China, India, and others are investing in the next generation of our global competitors.  Let’s reverse the Bush-Cheney administration’s cuts in Pell Grants for eligible college students, reform their failed ‘No Child Left Behind’ boondoggle, and once and for all stop them from trying to siphon tax dollars out of public schools to pay for a private-school voucher scheme.

• Micro-lending.  Expand the scope and lending limits of the Small Business Administration’s innovative micro-loan program. This home-grown wealth program helps encourage local companies and entrepreneurs, and the money stays in local communities in the form of higher tax revenues, consumer spending, sustainable local jobs, and economic opportunities for middle-class and working families.

These steps may not be easy, but they are essential.  The free spending in Iraq and laissez-faire enforcement of financial regulations by the Bush-Cheney administration and its reliable allies in Congress have created a danger far more horrifying than a grade-B Hollywood movie.  They have placed the economic security of the American middle-class at risk.

This election, let’s have a serious conversation about our priorities to move forward.  It begins by ending the war in Iraq and shifting the resources we are spending there to things that matter the most — universal health care, better public schools and access to college, a stronger Social Security trust fund and comprehensive services for our veterans and their families — here at home.

These are some of my ideas for positive change. The last thing we can afford is more of the same. We need a change in Washington — now.

http://www.dangrantforcongress…

(From the diaries. What’s your take? – promoted by James L.)

As we all watched in amazement last year, the Blue Wave in 2006 was so strong Republicans almost lost House districts in Wyoming and Idaho – two of the most conservative districts in the country (only 10-20 districts gave Bush a higher percentage of the vote in 2000 or 2004).  Not one Democratic seat was lost.

It couldn’t get better than that, could it?

Could it?

As the latest Democracy Corps memo puts it, “If Americans have ever been angrier with the state of the country, we have not witnessed it…”  And that anger is directed mostly at Republicans. 

Now, the numbers – first up, the Master Indicator – the Generic Ballot question.  The graph show the net Democratic advantage:

Click to enlarge.

Join me on the flip for a fourteen ways to look at the 2008 House races – and, in some cases, the mood of the country in general. 

Cross-posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Note: If I haven’t linked to polling data directly, you can find it at pollingreport.com. Unless I forgot to put in the link. 

The Vote

1.  Generic Ballot (+)  (The plus sign means an improvement from 2006 for Democrats)
The generic ballot question really has done a great job predicting the actual nationwide vote in congressional elections recently, when the results of all polls are averaged together.  The actual Democratic advantage has ended up about 3-4 points less than what the polls say in the final week for the past four elections in the Bush era.  So far, despite increasing unhappiness with Congress, Democrats continue to have a stunning advantage on the generic ballot. 

2. Battleground Districts (+)
Democracy Corps has once again been busy polling the House races in key areas of the country.  The Mountain West favors Democrats slightly more than they did in 2006, but the amazing numbers are in the 35 most vulnerable Republican districts.  Their poll numbers are lousy.  No wonder so many have decided to retire (more on that later).  The 35 most vulnerable House Democrats, on the other hand, are not so vulnerable at all, polling well ahead of generic Republicans (55 to 37). 

Party preference in key districts. Click to enlarge.

The Parties and Approval

3.  Bush Approval (+)
Bush’s approval continues on a downward trajectory, overall, and he is making sure Republicans go down with him.  In 2006 Bush’s approval was related to Republicans’ performance in House elections; there’s no guarantee for 2008, but lower approval ratings for Bush are worse for Republicans than higher approval ratings.  Note the map below for districts is from July 2007, when Bush’s approval was a few points lower than today.  (An archive of old approval ratings maps is now available on dKosopedia.)

Bush’s approval by state (10/07) and district (7/07).  Click to enlarge.

4.  Party Approval (-)
The Republican brand is trashed.  Democrats have a net approval that is less than November 2006, but still positive, and not unusually low.  Republicans remain way, way in the negative.

Net favorability of Democrats and Republicans.  Click to enlarge.

5.  Congressional Approval (=)
Nobody likes Congress, we’ve heard, but people like Congressional Republicans a fair amount less than they like Congressional Democrats.  According to ABC/Washington Post polls, people are most likely to blame Bush and the Republicans for blocking Democrats from doing what the people elected them to do.  The difference between the parties’ approval is still about the same as last year.

Approval of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and who is to blame for Congress not getting things done.  Click to enlarge.

6.  Party ID (+)
Republicans and Democrats are at about the same levels as 2006 according to Rasmussen, but when you include Independents who lean towards Democrats, Pew shows the leftward shift continuing into this year.

Two measures of partisan identification.  Click to enlarge.

The Issues

7.  Party Trust (+)
The public continues to swing to the Democratic side of issues, part of a longer-term trend.  Republicans used to be the party of Fiscal Discipline, but last July, an NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats have advantages on Reducing the Deficit (+25), Controlling Government Spending (+16), and Taxes (+9).  Well, so they’re left with God, Guns, and Gays, right?  No…. Rasmussen asked about Abortion (+7 average this year), and Newsweek about Guns (+2) and Same-Sex Marriage (+8).  And White Evangelical Christians are abandoning the party in droves – some to become Democrats, but mainly to become Independents or apolitical.  Then what about Terra, Terra, Terra, 9/11?  Still no…at best, Republicans come out even on questions about National Security and the so-called War on Terror.  On the issues voters claim are most important to them, Democrats have increased their advantage since 2006, and two issues that are among the most favorable for Democrats (health care and the economy) have gained prominence.  There is one sour note in this symphony: a decrease in the Democratic advantage when it comes to corruption and ethics in government.

Democratic advantage on key issues and importance of key issues in recent elections.  Click to enlarge.

8.  Iraq (+)
The public continues to think the war in Iraq simply isn’t worth it, to a greater extent than a year ago, although opinion was more pessimistic mid-year.  More and more people also think the number of troops should be decreased.

Opinion on whether Iraq is worth it and troop withdrawal.  Click to enlarge.

9.  The Economy (+)
As we saw above, the public trusts Democrats much more on the economy, and the economy is coming to the fore in terms of important issues this election season.  People think things aren’t very good and they’re getting worse, despite all the rosy numbers the Bush administration keeps putting out.  And when the Republicans try to talk up the economy, it really pisses people off (see Page 7.)  One reason, of course, is because Real People actually buy things like milk and gas, and the prices keep going up while wages are not.  Over Bush’s presidency, gas has been increasing at 13% per year (log plot here), while wages have been increasing at about 3% per year.  Up until about 2004, the public perception of the economy’s future seemed to be tied strongly to the stock market; after that, it appears gas prices are key.  For more and a much better analysis, see How to hide a recession.

Public perception on the current state of the economy, direction of the economy, milk and gas prices, and how gas and the Dow influence public opinion.  Click to enlarge.

10.  Health Care (+)
Health care availability and cost are both increasing problems, and surely related to perceptions of the economy.  The percentage of Americans without insurance has been rising steadily through the Bush presidency, and the number now stands at 47 million. Those who have health care plans through work have seen premiums almost double, while benefits dwindle and copays multiply.

Percent of Americans who are uninsured and premium prices.  Click to enlarge.

The Campaigning

11.  Fundraising (+)
Any way you slice it, Congressional Democrats and Democratic challengers are beating the pants of the Republicans in the money race.  The bad news is where a lot of this money is coming from.  The new members of Congress are raising a ton of cash, and Republican challengers are not.  Data for the first six months of 2007 and previous years are available from the FEC.

Total and median funds for incumbents, median funds for challengers, and number of challengers.  Click to enlarge.

12.  Recruitment (+)
As BENAWU has tirelessly documented, there are more districts with Democrats running now than at this time in 2005.  Part of this, of course, is that we started out with a few extra seats in the House filled with incumbents!  Nonetheless, Democrats are having a great recruitment season.

Number of districts with Democrats running, and district status as of mid-October.  Click to enlarge.

13.  Retirement (+)
Democrats are keeping their behinds tightly plastered to their seats and Republicans are fleeing for the exits, as covered by many of Steve Singiser’s diaries.  The Cook Political Report has tracked retirements over the past few cycles, and based on the numbers, it looks like we can expect another wave of Republican retirements in the new year, possible making it up to 30.  Democrats, on the other hand, have far fewer retirements or even potential retirements compared to the 2004 or 2006 cycles. 

Republican and Democratic retirements, and Republican and Democratic potential retirements.  Click to enlarge.

14.  Coattails (-)
In 2006, we had no national Democrat for Republicans to run against in House races.  In 2008, we will, and whoever it is will have high negatives after the right-wing slime machine is done with them. 

The good news is, right now, 74% believe that Clinton will be the nominee, and her most recent NBC/WSJ ‘very negative’ ratings were 26%.  No, really – this is good news, because it means the current excellent Generic Ballot numbers (which recently have had a good relationship with the actual vote) must therefore already have substantial negative coattails built in.  We still should assume the effect will increase.  Below are Kerry’s numbers from 2004 and the generic ballot numbers (note that approval of Democrats in general was also falling at the end of the campaign).

Kerry’s disapproval and the generic ballot, 2004.  Click to enlarge.

Summary:

Out of 14 factors, there are only two that are worse now compared to the 2006 cycle.  The generic ballot favors Democrats to an amazing extent.  This will be affected by local campaigns, of course, and here the Democrats are also excelling, with outstanding fundraising, recruiting, and retention.  Broader factors such as the economy and presidential approval ratings are also trending towards Democrats.  The public trusts Democrats more, and approves of Democrats more, even as they are unsatisfied with what Congress is doing.  As of now, Democrats are in an excellent position for the 2008 elections, despite the shortcomings of Democratic leaders over the past year. 

 

What’s for dinner?

 

• Fruit and Veggies laced with pesticides?
• Oysters tainted with Listeria?
• Shrimp sautéed with Salmonella?
• Spinach with a side of E. coli?
• Just plain filthy fish? 

 

Hungry yet? In the last couple months, I know many of us have thought twice while picking our food for our families at the supermarket, and we should. The CDC estimates that 76 million Americans suffer from foodborne illnesses every year, 325,000 are hospitalized, and 5,000 die.

 

While the mainstream media is happy to tell the public of the great threats to their health and safety, scaring them stiff into watching the evening news, they rarely ask why the flood of dangerous imports is happening and of our leaders, what can be done to stop it.

 

 A new report by Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch offers an answer to those questions. The report called “Trade Deficit in Food Safety: Proposed NAFTA Expansions Replicate Limits on U.S. Food Safety Policy that Are Contributing to Unsafe Food Imports” draws the link between the Bush administration’s damaging trade policies and our food safety problems.

 

Our food imports have increased sharply, almost doubling in value, since NAFTA and the WTO passed in the mid-‘90s. Seafood imports alone have increased 65 percent. For the first time in 2005, the United  States, formerly known as the world’s bread basket, became a net food importer, with a food deficit of nearly $370 million. 

 

There may not be anything inherently wrong with increasing the food imports into our country, but there is something inherently dangerous about doing so when our ability to inspect those imports is decreasing even more sharply than our increase in imports. In 1992, the FDA inspected 8% of all the food imports under its jurisdiction. In 2006, the inspection rate is now less than one percent, a staggering .6%.

 

NAFTA started this trend, and the Bush administration’s policy of free-trade-at-any-cost has made it worse. Under Bush, the U.S. has already expanded NAFTA to Central America and is now pushing for passage of NAFTA-expansion deals to Peru, Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. 

 

The real problem is that these so-called “trade” agreements do more than increase trade of goods between nations. Trade rules incorporated into the proposed FTAs with Peru, Panama, Colombia and South Korea limit food safety standards and border inspection. The agreements require the United  States to rely on foreign regulatory structures and foreign safety inspectors to ensure that food imports are safe. The agreements require that the U.S. food safety regulators treat imported food the same as domestically produced food, even though more intensive inspection of imported goods is needed to compensate for often weak domestic regulatory systems in some exporting nations.

 

Last November, Democrats won a much-needed and much-deserved majority in Congress, and trade issues played no small part in helping usher in new leadership. 37 supporters of our failed trade policy lost their seats to Democrats campaigning on fair trade. The food safety issue is just one aspect of the Bush administration’s trade policy that has hurt Americans, but it’s also an issue that Democrats can start fixing right now to make a real difference in people’s lives. While several Democratic leaders have proposed legislation to help mend our food safety regulatory system, none of those steps will suffice if our leaders keep passing these Bush administration trade deals. The first step that Democrats can take is to vote “no” to NAFTA expansions to Peru, Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. 

 

To read the report, sign a petition or find out what you can do to protect yourself from dangerous imports visit http://www.citizen.org/trade/food/ or read our blog, http://www.eyesontrade.org for continuing coverage of the unsafe food import crisis.