Swing State Project

Quinnipiac (8/11-16, Florida voters, 7/22-27 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 31 (26)

Bill McCollum (R): 29 (27)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)

Undecided: 21 (27)

Alex Sink (D): 33 (27)

Rick Scott (R): 29 (29)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (14)

Undecided: 20 (26)

(MoE: ±3%)

All manner of other pollsters have given Alex Sink small leads in the gubernatorial race over the last month, thanks to the bizarre no-holds-barred civil war on the GOP side. Believe it or not, this is the first time that Quinnipiac has joined the rest in giving Sink the lead, despite that they’ve been one of the Crist-friendliest pollsters this year. Sink’s winning mostly just by standing around, smiling, and staying mud-free; she’s at 30/15 favorables, compared with 33/43 for McCollum and 28/40 for Scott among the general population.

Jeff Greene (D): 15 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (32)

Charlie Crist (I): 40 (37)

Undecided: 10 (12)

Kendrick Meek (D): 16 (13)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (33)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (39)

Undecided: 10 (14)

(MoE: ±3%)

With the gubernatorial race having gotten so explosive, it’s actually gotten easy to forget about the Senate race (which for a brief while was the absolute marquee Senate race). Things have been decidedly low-key lately between Crist and Rubio, while Meek and Greene pound each other in the Dem primary, all to little effect in the general. Crist actually gains a little ground in this sample, more pronouncedly with Jeff Greene as the Dem candidate (although they don’t find as wide a disparity in how Crist performs against Greene as against Meek as, say, Mason-Dixon did). With Crist having had the chance to dominate the airwaves acting gubernatorial during the oil spill, he’s actually pulled his favorables back above the 50% mark, at 53/33, while Rubio’s at 35/28. (Meek is at 24/25, while Greene is pretty much in ruins, at 18/31.)

With the likelihood (seeming apparent to all but Rasmussen) that Crist goes to Washington, questions are getting louder about what he’ll do when he gets there. Matt Yglesias raises an interesting (if terrifying) specter of a scenario for 2011, wherein Crist still wouldn’t have to pick sides: 49 Democrats (or 48 + Sanders, I presume), 49 Republicans, and then Charlie Crist and Joe Lieberman in the middle, forming their own caucus (the CfL/FLfC Party?) and wielding all the control over organizing the Senate.

In today’s Daily Digest, we told you about how Republican candidate David M. Rivera once ran a truck off the road because it was carrying flyers printed for his opponent in a state legislative race, in the hopes of preventing it from reaching the post office on time. Rivera’s campaign is, of course, twisting itself into a pretzel-shaped object in an attempt to deny the story.

Now we have another ugly episode from Rivera’s past:

As he seeks to jump from the Legislature to Congress, Republican state Rep. David Rivera is fighting off a nasty attack from his GOP rivals — an allegation that he was accused of domestic violence in the 1990s.

One of Rivera’s opponents in the Republican primary, Paul Crespo, has raised the issue on a website. Another opponent, Marili Cancio, repeated the allegations in a television interview earlier this month.

Rivera denies he was ever accused of domestic violence — a charge first raised in 2002, during his first political campaign. In a written statement to The Miami Herald, Rivera slammed his opponents for trying to “libel, slander and defame my character.”

The allegation arises from a 1994 petition for a domestic-violence restraining order filed in Miami-Dade Circuit Court against one David M. Rivera. The court file has been destroyed — by law, family court files are not retained after five years — along with any details or additional identifying information. Only a computer record of the docket is available today.

The restraining order was dropped after a month, and no criminal charges were filed, records show. But inconsistencies in Rivera’s responses to the claim in years past and today have helped make it a campaign issue heading into the Aug. 24 Republican primary, a Miami Herald/WFOR-CBS 4 review has found.

Really, just read the whole thing. Get a load of Rivera’s dismissals of anyone who contradicts his story as perpetrators of an “obvious hoax”.

People have always said – those words, ‘too conservative,’ is fairly relative. I’m sure that they probably said that about Thomas Jefferson and George Washington and Benjamin Franklin. And truly, when you look at the Constitution and our founding fathers and their writings, the things that made this country great, you might draw those conclusions: That they were conservative. They were fiscally conservative and socially conservative.

Wait, we’ve got some more. Back in 1993, Angle (then a member of the Independent American Party) sent a letter to Harry Reid regarding the Clinton budget. Have a look-see:

I and the majority of my fellow Nevadans are sickened by the passage of the recent huge tax increase bill. With YOUR help the quality of life in America has taken another step into the pit of economic collapse. Clinton’s mother-of-all tax packages is the world’s biggest tax increase ever. It increases government spending by $300 billion, increases the national debt by $1 trillion, it is retroactive to January 1, and probably the most offensive, it schedules 80 percent of the promised spending cuts to take place after the next Presidential election. What a joke, and not a very funny one at that! …

The answer to this mess is clear. STOP FUNDING THE WASTEFUL SOCIAL AND ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS. MAKE THE DIFFICULT CHOICES THAT WILL KEEP OUR COUNTRY STRONG. THAT’S WHAT YOU WERE ELECTED TO DO!

With her mastery of ALL CAPS, Angle’d make a great comment forum troll.

Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, presumed front-runner Jonathan Paton is airing an ad attacking rival Jesse Kelly for alleged stimulus hypocrisy.

[If Renacci] wants to run for the zoning commission in New York City, I’ll be more than happy to pay his filing fee.

AND I WILL FUCKING RUN AGAINST HIM! If only it were actually an elected position. (Eh, it’s probably a good thing that it isn’t.)

“Let me start by saying, I cannot imagine wanting the government to be able to tell me and my faith community where we can build a house of worship on private property,” Perriello said. “… I have opinions on whether it’s a good idea or not, but … compared to the importance of solving the economy right now… this is a distraction of what our biggest priorities should be.”

The crowd overwhelmingly applauded his answer.

A lot of Democrats could learn a lot from this man.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/14-15, likely voters, 3/27-28 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 38 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Beck (C): 5

Jonathan Dine (L): 3

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Robin Carnahan once had a small, persistent lead in this contest, but all that went up in depressingly sweet, sweet smoke back in January. (Granted, most of the polls since that time have been from the desk of Scott Rasmussen…)

PPP’s likely voter universe for Missouri has taken a turn for the red, with a sample that supported McCain over Obama by seven percent. With that in mind, Carnahan’s strategy seems based in part on making Blunt’s name poison among the anti-bailout crowd, releasing a new ad touting his role in shepherding the Wall Street bailout through the House in 2008. Maybe that’ll be good enough to shave off a few points from Blunt’s hide to the third-party candidates in November, but Carnahan will need to find a way to get listless Dems to the polls while she’s at it.

Ipsos/Reuters (8/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jack Conway (D): 40

Rand Paul (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Ipsos has dipped their thumb into the Kentucky pie for the first time this week, finding a 40-40 tie between Jack Conway and Rand Paul among registered voters, and a five-point Paul advantage among likely voters.

Jonathan Singer, formerly of MyDD, has some thoughts at his new blog, Polising, on Ipsos’ likely voter screen that are well worth considering. In screening their registered voter sample down to a pool of likely voters, Ipsos has whittled down their sample from 600 to 435 voters — suggesting a voter turnout at a level close to 73% of registered voters. That number is over 20 points higher than Kentucky voter turnout in the past three midterm elections, so it’s quite possible this sample has a few unlikely voters in its midst. Whom that would benefit, however, is up to debate.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller has two things going for him in the Alaska GOP Senate primary: the endorsements of Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. On the other hand, Lisa Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents behind her. That’s her cash on hand, based on $300K raised in July and early August. Miller raised only $68K in that span and now has $84K CoH.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA, no stranger to Republican-friendly samples lately, comes up with quite the GOP wipeout in Kansas. They find Republican Rep. Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston in the Senate race, 69-23, and find Sam Brownback leading state Sen. Tom Holland in the gubernatorial race, 67-25. They even find several Dem incumbents losing to GOP challengers in downballot races. It may be worth, noting, however, the disparity in self-described ideology between this sample and the 2008 exit polls: this poll is 49 conservative, 37 moderate, 9 liberal, compared with 2008’s 45 moderate, 38 conservative, 16 liberal.

• NV-Sen: With her endorsement percentage starting to trend steeply downward (with last night’s losses by Rita Meyer and Clint Didier), Sarah Palin’s trying out a new angle, literally. She’s backing Sharron Angle in Nevada, saying she’ll “actively help” her and that Angle “is putting up with more crap than she deserves.” Palin avoided getting involved in the primary, probably in large part because of other family members’ support for Danny Tarkanian.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena’s out with another look at the big-ticket races in New York, finding the same-old same-old. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 55-28, Joe DioGuardi 54-29, and David Malpass 55-27. DioGuardi is on track to win the GOP Senate primary, leading Blakeman and Malpass 19-8-5. And Andrew Cuomo is even more dominant, leading Rick Lazio 60-26 and Carl Paladino 60-27. Lazio leads Paladino 43-30 in the GOP primary, much closer than previous months. Further down the ballot, they find incumbent Dem comptroller Tom DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 46-28, and Dems leading a generic ballot-type question about the state legislature, 33-27.

• CO-Gov: Dan Maes picked his running mate: former state Rep. and former Dept. of Regulatory Agencies head Tambor Williams. Williams seems to actually be something of a moderate by today’s GOP standards, which is an interesting act of ticket-balancing by the wackadoodle Maes (although you have to wonder how “moderate” someone willing to be joined at the hip to Maes can be). Meanwhile, Tom Tancredo is focusing most of his fire on Maes, not on John Hickenlooper, attacking Maes’, well, utter lack of qualifications. Tancredo seems to realize that the only path to viability in this election as an indie is reducing Maes to the Alan Schlesinger-style single-digits role. And guess who’s throwing up their hands and walking away? The RGA, which according to several local Republicans, has confirmed it won’t be spending money in Colorado.

• ID-Gov, ID-01: We’ve gotten an inkling that the Idaho gubernatorial race (where GOP incumbent Butch Otter was elected with lackluster numbers in 2006) was possibly a real race, and these poll numbers seem to confirm it. I don’t know whether to call this a Republican poll (it’s taken by a local pollster who usually works for Republicans, Greg Strimple, on behalf of the Idaho Hospital Association) or an independent one, but either way, it’s not good news for the GOP. Otter leads Dem Keith Allred by only 47-36. Also good news: that Raul Labrador internal poll that had him losing by double digits was actually pretty optimistic, on his part. This sample sees Dem Walt Minnick beating Labrador by a startling 52-29 margin. Maybe all that chatter about the NRCC moving to write off this seat has some real roots.

• VT-Gov: Lone Republican Brian Dubie is the fundraising leader in the decidedly small-dollar gubernatorial race in Vermont. Dubie has raised the most over the course of the campaign (slightly more than $1 million). (Maybe if Meg Whitman can’t win in California, she should consider moving to Vermont and buying the gubernatorial race here. In fact, maybe she should just consider buying the entire state of Vermont, which would still be cheaper than buying the gubernatorial race in California.) The Dems are all closely bunched, with Peter Shumlin and Deb Markowitz more or less tied for most raised. But all five major Dems are low on cash, each reporting less than $100K CoH (Matt Dunne has the most, at $83K). For some reason, the article doesn’t tell us Dubie’s CoH.

• GA-08: GOP state Rep. Austin Scott (following hot on the heels of fellow legislator and GA-02 candidate Mike Keown’s internal poll release) is out with an internal showing a competitive race against Rep. Jim Marshall. Marshall leads Scott 44-39 in the poll conducted in late July by American Viewpoint.

• MI-01: This has the potential to mightily reshuffle things in the open seat race in the 1st… or it could turn out to be so much wind in sails, as promises of massive self-funding usually are. Random teabagger and indie candidate Glenn Wilson is promising to spend $2 million of his own money in order to defeat Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek, the Dem and GOP nominees. In this rural seat with dirt-cheap media markets, that could go a long way toward blanketing the airwaves… but without the organizational backing that the party apparatuses provide, that seems like it still might not translate into actual votes.

• TN-08: Humble farmer/gospel singer and, in his spare time, director of Fight Club, Stephen Fincher is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group that gives him a lead over Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron in this open seat race. He claims a 47-37 lead, with conservative indie Donn James at 5, in a poll taken immediately post-primary. Herron, who avoided much trouble in the primary and was able to bank a lot of money, is already hitting Fincher with TV ads, though.

• RGA: One nice thing about the post-Citizens United universe is that it lets us see everything in the open that we’ve only just suspected in the past. Case in point: Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (the Fox News and WSJ parent corporation) just gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association. Insert obvious snarky comment about “Fair and Balanced” here.

• Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%

The Washington Senate primary was the main event last night, even though it the results were entirely predictable (as seen by PPP’s pre-primary poll, which got it almost exactly right). Patty Murray is currently at 46, with Dino Rossi at 34; Clint Didier doesn’t advance, at 12. Both sides, naturally, are foreseeing doom for their opposition based on the results. It’s a little premature to foresee anything, though, since, as if often the case in Washington, only about half of all precincts have reported, and the ones that haven’t reported are disproportionately in Seattle. (50% of King County is in, while 67% of precincts outside of King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties are in.) For what it’s worth, right now there are a few thousand more total GOP votes than there are total Dem votes in the Senate race (taking into account all 15 participants), though that will change once Seattle reports more. And there’s also the problem of getting teabagger votes to switch over from Didier to Rossi; Didier is currently withholding his endorsement, wanting to see “more conviction” and patronizingly insisting on giving Rossi “some coaching” first on how to reach his supporters.

One place where the results don’t bode well for Dems is WA-03, where Denny Heck is currently in first but with only 32%, against a fractured GOP field. He’ll face state Rep. Jaime Herrera, who hit 27%, followed by teabaggers David Hedrick and David Castillo at 13 and 12 (repeating the oft-seen pattern where the Tea Party could have been relevant if only they’d galvanized behind one candidate), and by Dem activist Cheryl Crist, who pulled in a surprisingly large 12, all of it seeming to come from Heck’s left flank. The total GOP vote topped 50%, and as Greg Giroux demonstrates with a terrific spreadsheet comparing the ’08 primaries and generals, there’s not much variation from the Dem and GOP totals in the primary to the November numbers. Americans for Prosperity isn’t wasting any time; they’re already jumping into the district with a $180K ad buy with a negative ad against Heck.

Real Clear Politics sees trouble ahead for Rick Larsen in WA-02, who’s currently ahead of GOPer John Koster 43-41; however, if you do the Giroux-style math, you’ll notice that two other random Dems vacuumed up 10% of the vote, which would project out to a 53-47 advantage for Larsen in a head-to-head. (The good part of the RCP article is about how Washington’s top 2 primary has taken the bellwether position once occupied by Maine’s weird early general election, from which we get the saying “As goes Maine, so goes the nation.”) They also took notice of Rep. Adam Smith finishing in the mid-50s in WA-09; he’ll probably face Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri, although that primary hasn’t been called yet. And in the one seat where Dems are on offense, in WA-08, it’s Dave Reichert vs. Suzan DelBene, who got 48 and 26 respectively (with totals of 59 GOP-41 Dems).

Wyoming’s gubernatorial race came down to the wire on the Republican side. Former US Attorney Matt Mead is the victor, beating state Auditor Rita Meyer 29-28, with Ron Micheli at 26 and Colin Simpson at 16. Mead’s 714 vote lead was within the margin for a recount, but Meyer conceded and won’t seek a recount. Mead will face Democratic former state party chair Leslie Petersen, who won her own primary over Pete Gosar 48-37.

Finally, in California’s 15th Senate district, Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee defeated Dem John Laird in a near-identical replay of their first (but inconclusive) special election. Blakeslee won by a 49-44 margin, only slightly different from the original 49-42 result. As a pointless aside, there were more votes cast in this election (with the district’s more than 800K residents) than there were in the Wyoming gubernatorial race.

Quinnipiac (8/11-16, likely primary voters, 7/22-27 in parentheses):

Bill McCollum (R): 44 (32)

Rick Scott (R): 35 (43)

Undecided: 19 (23)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 35 (23)

Jeff Greene (D): 28 (33)

Maurice Ferre (D): 6 (4)

Undecided: 29 (35)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

A month ago, it was looking like the massively-self-funded vanity campaigns of Rick Scott (in the GOP gubernatorial primary) and Jeff Greene (in the Democratic Senate primary) were actually going to succeed, having bamboozled an adequate number of voters after swamping the airwaves with TV spots. With voters finally seeming to take notice of Scott’s massive Medicare fraud and Greene’s hard-partying ways (stuff that was always out there, but seemed to take a long time to break through the clutter), their implosion seems to be happening — belatedly, but rapidly, all the same.

McCollum’s turnaround is particularly surprising, as he’s actually venturing back into positive favorable territory (at least among the Republican primary electorate) after having temporarily gotten turned radioactive: he’s at 45/30, compared with 34/33 for Scott. (Quinnipiac should ask McCollum supporters how they feel about Scott, and vice versa… I think there might be some mutual exclusivity to those two sets of numbers.) McCollum’s also surviving despite that, by a 42-35 margin, GOP voters prefer someone who’s an “outsider” to someone with “experience.”

There is one other poll, out, though, that gives a small lead to Scott: it’s the GOP side of that Susquehanna poll for Sunshine State News (they released Dem Senate numbers yesterday). It’s a small lead, though; Scott’s up 44-42 (although he was up by 16 in the previous Sunshine State News poll in July). The same sample also took a look at the Democratic primary in the Attorney General‘s race, where state sen. Dan Gelber leads fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg, 38-27.

McCollum’s also getting some outside help from another new Florida resident: Mike Huckabee is giving his endorsement to McCollum, and will appear with him this weekend. The McCollum camp is also launching a new ad, focusing on Scott’s legal woes and featuring new footage of him running away from cameras, and even turning the C and O in his name into handcuffs for emphasis.

Realizing he’s up against the wall, Scott is pouring another $4 million of his own money into the race. (Somewhere, Meg Whitman was heard scoffing at the foibles of the little people who can only self-finance in the seven-digit range.) Scott’s newest ad references Jim Greer, the disgraced former state party chair, and tries to tie him to McCollum. That seems like it was a bridge too far for even the RGA, which condemned Scott over the ad and danced up to the very edge, in their statement, of almost (but not quite) endorsing McCollum. Also, Scott is going back to the well on the Rentboy scandal, trying to tie McCollum to George Rekers again with a new mailer. Whew! Remember back when we thought the Florida Senate race was going to be the slimy one?

2:07am: Well, things have pretty much ground to a halt in Washington, so we’ll probably just leave it for here for the night. Currently 60% are reporting in WA-Sen (with Murray at 46, Rossi at 34, and Didier at 12), but bear in mind that ballots are going to keep straggling in over the next few days (since they can be postmarked today). Only half of King County is reporting, for instance. At any rate, I did some rough extrapolation and it doesn’t look like the final needle will budge much: I’m projecting Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 11.

1:28am: We’ve gotten some more Santa Cruz Co. precincts reporting (now that they’ve stopped playing Jenga). That takes us up to 59% reporting, but with 91% of votes in by our figuring. It’s 49-43 for the GOP’s Blakeslee, and that’s still what we’re projecting as the final result in California.

1:03am: The AP has called Jaime Herrera for the 2nd spot in WA-03. She’s at 27, to Heck’s 32. That’s with 71% reporting. (In case you cared, they also called Jim Watkins as Jay Inslee’s opponent in WA-01. Inslee is at 57, Watkins at 26.)

1:01am: There’s 39% reporting in CA-SD15. But by our calculations, 87% of the votes have been counted, and we’re still on track for a 49-43 finale.

12:53am: Wow, it looks like we might go into overtime in Wyoming after all. We’ve hit 486 of 486, and Mead’s lead over Meyer fell to 714 votes (30,272 to 29,558). That’s less than a 1% margin (28.7%-28.1%), so Mead isn’t clear anymore. So, naturally, no AP call yet.

12:48am: Well, we’ve added 4 more precincts in WY-Gov, taking us up to 481/486. They don’t seem to have been much help for Rita Meyer, as she still trails Matt Mead by 1,250 votes. The automatic recount line is a 1% margin (again, thanks to Aaron Blake), and Mead’s edge over Meyer is currently 28.9%-27.6%, so he’s clear of the zone.

12:39am: Still no new reports in CA-SD15. We’d like to remind the good folks of Santa Cruz County that Proposition 19 hasn’t passed yet!

12:31am: One other small piece of bad news, although this is pretty down-in-the-weeds for Washington. Jim Johnson won another term on the state Supreme Court, beating Stan Rumbaugh 63-37 (for some technical reason that I don’t know, probably because it’s a nonpartisan office and there were only 2 contestants, this race is decided tonight). Johnson is the lone across-the-boards conservative on SCOWa. (The rest of you are probably now saying “You only have one conservative on your Supreme Court?!?”)

12:29am: We’re estimating 86% of the vote is in in CA SD-15. It’s still listed at 49-43 Blakeslee, and that’s what we’re still projecting in the end, too. Worth noting: the final numbers last time were 49-42, so, apparently, nobody changed their mind over the last month.

12:24am: We’re up to 56% reporting in WA-Sen. The latest report includes all of Benton Co. in eastern Washington (Didier’s home turf), so there’s a small Didier surge and Murray erosion: Murray 46, Rossi 34, Didier 12 now. Half of King is still outstanding, though, so look for Murray to push upward again.

12:20am: If you’re looking for something interesting to watch in Washington, try the GOP side in WA-09, where there’s a good establishment/teabagger duel for the right to face the probably safe Adam Smith. Currently, Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri (a pretty good get in terms of his office, but a zero on the fundraising front) leads 2008 challenger Jim Postma 24-19 (with Smith at 53).

12:18am: Cue up inevitable lamestream media narrative of OMG! Mama Grizzly fail!!1! Is Sarah Palin losing her touch? (With probably no mention of G.H.W. Bush’s support of 4th place Colin Simpson.)

12:15am: Just like that, Campbell Co. in Wyoming reports. Mead won 31-23 there over Meyer, so that pads his lead a bit. Statewide, it’s Mead 29, Meyer 28, Micheli 27, Simpson 16 (with Mead’s lead over Meyer at 1,300 votes). That’s with 477 of 486 precincts total reporting, so I think this is pretty much over and done, in favor of Mead. (But no AP call yet.)

12:13am: The AP has declared victors in WA-08, as Suzan DelBene has gained some ground, though it’s still not a convincing win. It’s Reichert 48, DelBene 27. Also, they’ve called WA-02 for Rick Larsen and John Koster. It’s actually pretty close, at 44-41 for Larsen, but there’s also 10% going to random other Dems.

12:11am: The AP has partially called WA-03. They’ve given a check mark to Denny Heck (at 31), and presumably Jaime Herrera (at 27) will get one soon. Still 65% reporting.

12:09am: We’re up to 89% reporting in Wyoming, rattling toward a conclusion, and Mead is pulling a smidge ahead of Meyer. He’s up 29-28 over Meyer, by 750 votes. Nothing from Campbell Co. has reported yet, but it’s worth noting that neighboring county Johnson Co. went for Mead, 37-30 over Meyer.

12:07am: Wow, here’s a fun fact I just learned (thanks to Aaron Blake’s Twitter feed). Pete Gosar, the guy who just lost the WY-Gov D primary, is the brother of rogue dentist Paul Gosar, the guy who’s expected to win the GOP primary in AZ-01.

12:00am: White smoke is pouring out of the SSP Labs mainframe, although we don’t know who the new pope will be. What we do know is that we’re projecting the 49-43 margin for Blakeslee in CA-SD15 is predicted to continue all the way to the end, with all vote-by-mail having been reported there. (Even though we’re only at 27% reporting, 80% of the vote has reported because so much of it was by mail.)

11:56pm: We’re up to 65% reporting in WA-03, but things have flattened out. It’s Heck 31, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 12, Crist 11. That’s GOP 53-Dems 44, if you’re playing along at home, not an especially good omen for November.

11:52pm: Sam Blakeslee (R) pulls into the lead in CA-SD15, thanks to some reports from his turf at the southern end of the district (SLO and Santa Barbara Cos.). Now he leads over Laird, 49-43. With Santa Cruz not having reported much of anything yet, though, this could tighten again.

11:48pm: The AP also just called the WY-Gov D primary for Leslie Petersen, who’s up 48-39 over Pete Gosar. We’re up to 85% reporting. And we’re a long way from a winner in the R primary, although the Ron Micheli bulge seems to have passed. It’s now 28 each for Mead and Meyer (with Meyer up by about 50), with Micheli down at 26 and Simpson at 15. Looks like the biggest outstanding clot of votes is all of Campbell County (Gillette).

11:45pm: The AP has already called WA-Sen for Murray and Rossi. Murray’s at 47, Rossi’s at 34, with Didier at 10 and Akers at 2. That’s with 45% reporting, but without any of the WA-07 part (i.e., Seattle) of King County reporting yet.

11:41pm: We’re up to 45% reporting in Washington, and that includes a sizable part of King County now. That moves the needle quite a bit, to Murray 48, Rossi 34, and Didier 10.

11:38pm: I guess we should check in on WA-08. Dave Reichert’s at 50%. Suzan DelBene is way back at 19, although that should still be enough to easily get her into November. (There’s another Dem, Tom Cramer, polling at 11, and a few other stray Dems in single digits. The Seattle Times’ new pet rock, Tim Dillon, is at 5.)

11:36pm: 22% are reporting in CA-SD15, and things are actually getting better for Laird. He’s up 49-43 over Blakeslee. However, the new votes are from Monterey Co., his home turf, so, again, don’t start getting optimistic yet.

11:35pm: Wow, I pretty much forgot about Wyoming, and with 71% reporting, we’re in pretty much a 3-way tie among the GOPers. Micheli, Mead, and Meyer are all at 28%. Micheli leads Mead by only 22 votes, and Mead’s ahead of Meyer by another 550. For the Dems, not much change: 48 Petersen, 39 Gosar.

11:32pm: In WA-03, we’re up to 49% reporting. It’s Heck 33, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 11, Crist 11.  

11:30pm: Now there’s 25% reporting statewide, says the AP. (Typical Washington deluge.) It’s Murray 42, Rossi 37, Didier 13. But bear in mind that absolutely none (of 1788) of King County’s precincts have reported, so that should pad things out for Murray once they get going (late, as they usually do).

11:25pm: Definitely getting some disparities here between the WA SoS, and the AP. The AP says the Senate race is Murray 41, Rossi 36, Didier 14, with 15% reporting. In WA-03, they have 37% reporting: Heck is at 32, Herrera at 30, Hedrick at 16, Castillo at 10, and Crist at 9.

11:22pm: OK, here’s some unexpected good news, though: John Laird is leading Sam Blakeslee in the CA-SD15 special election, with 10% of the vote in. It’s 47-45. However, that’s in Santa Clara Co. only, so Laird’s stronger areas (like San Luis Obispo) haven’t reported. But recall that Laird lost Santa Clara last time.

11:20pm: In the only other federal race worth watching in Washington, in WA-03, Jaime Herrera actually has a small lead over Denny Heck, 27-25, with the assorted teabaggers fairly far behind (Castillo at 17, Hedrick at 13). Cheryl Crist, who primaried Brian Baird from the left in 2008, is actually racking up a fair share too, at 12.

11:18pm: Wow, a lot of Washington votes landed with a thud. (Over 222,000 of them, according to the SoS.) Patty Murray’s at 44, Dino Rossi is at 37. Didier’s at 11, Akers is at 2. Goodspaceguy is at 0.4%.

     California: Associated Press

     Washington: Associated Press | WA SoS | Politico

     Wyoming: Associated Press | Politico