Swing State Project

A huge blow for mid-year liveblogging:

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) will not call a special election to fill the vacancy created by Rep. Eric Massa’s (D) resignation earlier this month, according to news reports.

“We have some serious concerns about the financial impact that a special election could have on the county level, especially because those counties are facing the same fiscal crisis that the state is facing,” Paterson spokesperson Maggie McKeon told the Gannett news service.

That’s a blow to the GOP, which saw the Corning-based district as its best chance to win a special election before the Nov. midterms. The NRCC has said it has yet to make a decision about how much it will invest in a special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), and the party hasn’t signaled it will get seriously involved in a special election to replace ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), who resigned to run for GOV.

UPDATE: As mentioned in the comments, Assemblyman David Koon has pulled out of the race:

New York Assemblyman David Koon said Thursday he won’t run in a special election for former Rep. Eric Massa’s vacant House seat, voicing dissatisfaction with the Democratic nominating process.

“I’m withdrawing from the race because it’s gotten so messed up and there’s so much going on in Albany, I need to keep my constituents happy,” Koon told POLITICO. “The process has become such a distraction. Trying to raise money and spending time on the phone when I have other stuff that I need to be doing.”

Koon said he had already received about $200,000 in donation pledges for the race. And he wouldn’t rule out running in a November general election, but said that’s not where he’s focusing his attention now.

I’m not sure if Koon’s calculus may have changed now that it looks like Paterson is not going to call a special election, but there we are.

AL-05: Wayne Parker, the GOP’s 2008 nominee, is endorsing Madison County Comm’r Mo Brooks as a “consistent conservative voice” – and pointedly not endorsing the party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith, to whom he lost. Parker also seems to be trying to consolidate support behind Brooks, who also has to contend with businessman Les Phillip in the primary.

AL-07: Radio journalist Patricia Evans Mokolo is dropping out of the Dem primary to succeed Rep. Artur Davis. This doesn’t really change the dynamics of the race much – the three main candidates are still Shelia Smoot, Terri Sewell, and Earl Hilliard, Jr.

MI-01: Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner (Drain Commissioner!!) Dennis Lennox, a 25-year-old Republican, won’t challenge Rep. Bart Stupak, instead endorsing surgeon Dan Benishek.

MN-01: Michele Bachmann’s toxic vapors are spilling over into the 1st CD: GOPer Jim Hagedorn, himself no stranger to inflammatory remarks, is attacking primary opponent Allen Quist for his supposed “allegiance” to Bachmann – and his propensity for outrageous statements. (Quist once said that men are “genetically predisposed” to be the head of the household.) This seems to be a case of the pot calling the kettle black, but it’s also a rare instance of one Republican trying to not out-crazy another.

ND-AL: Criticizing the state convention which backed state Rep. Rick Berg as “exclusive,” businessman (and, I’m guessing, Some Dude) J.D. Donaghe filed to run against Berg in the Republican primary. It doesn’t look like Donaghe has filed any FEC reports so far – but then again, neither has Berg.

NJ-12: Fair Haven Mayor Michael Halfacre is dropping out and instead supporting businessman Scott Sipprelle for the GOP nod to take on Rep. Rush Holt. Sipprelle, who has given his own campaign a quarter million bucks, still faces real-estate investor Dave Corsi in the primary.

NY-02: The Suffolk County GOP is backing former radio talk-show host John Gomez to run against Rep. Steve Israel. Can’t tell you much more than that, though, since the story is behind the Newsday paywall – and there are only 35 online subscribers!

NY-13: Rep. Anthony Weiner will fill in for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn at a fundraiser for Rep. Mike McMahon. Quinn, you may recall, pulled out after McMahon voted against healthcare reform. Weiner was an outspoken proponent of the bill.

NY-20: Looks like the GOP got their huckleberry: Republican county committees have rallied around retired Army colonel Charles Chris Gibson to challenge Dem. Rep. Scott Murphy in the fall. In response, Gibson’s last remaining opponent, Patrick Ziegler, dropped out of the race, so it seems that there won’t be a primary here. Not sure if that’s a good thing, considering the poor success this same 10-county gang had in hand-picking all-time SSP fave Jim Tedisco last year.

NY-24: Epidemiologist Les Roberts is still weighing a primary run against Rep. Mike Arcuri, saying he’ll wait until at least April 9th to decide. That’s when the Working Families Party’s executive committee will meet to discuss the race. Roberts is also waiting to hear from county Democratic committees and local unions.

NY-29: Citing the state’s fiscal crisis and concerns about costs, a spokesperson for David Paterson is suggesting that the governor might not call a special election after all and will instead wait until the general election in the fall. This would also probably benefit Dems, who will (almost certainly) have Andrew Cuomo at the top of the ticket in November. (So, not surprisingly, GOP candidate Tom Reed is complaining loudly.) Here’s a question I have: If things unfold this way, then would the candidate selection process instead be replaced by a normal primary?

SC-02: Sigh. The story of Rob Miller’s campaign in one sentence: “The voice mailbox at his campaign office is full, and no one answered ITK’s repeated calls.”

VA-10: Navy vet and teabagger Jim Trautz has dropped his primary challenge to GOP Rep. Frank Wolf. I think we’re going to see the vast majority of teabaggers fizzle out in one way or another.

1994: Pollster Stan Greenberg seemed to freak everybody out by saying at a recent breakfast that if the election were held today, it’d be 1994 all over again. But then he proceeded to explain why he thinks things might be different in November.

Census: Nate Silver, looking at state-by-state numbers, thinks there’s no hard evidence that the black helicopter crowd is letting itself get undercounted by refusing to return census forms. I think the county-level response rates will be more interesting, though.

Polling: An interesting tidbit: Quinnipiac has been steadily adding cell phones to its call lists. This is something that only pollsters who use live interviewers can do, because federal law prohibits automated calls to cell phones. Also, some fun polling on the political preference of sports fans, broken down by sport.

The daily digest is so hunormous today that we had to CHOP IT IN HALF!

AR-Sen: Chris Cillizza’s incredibly annoying Mr. Rogers wallpaper tweets that Bill Halter raised $2 million in his first month on the trail.

AZ-Sen: This Roll Call piece has some interesting tidbits about the nascent Democratic (yes, Democratic) primary in the Arizona senate race. Tucson city councilman Rodney Glassman is all but running, and he has some personal wealth due to his family’s farming business. He also has the backing of Rep. Raul Grijalva (Glassman was once a Grijalva aide). Some other Dems, however, are talking up the potential candidacy of Nan Stockholm Walden, who is also wealthy and is a well-connected Democratic donor. The knock on Glassman is that he’s young and inexperienced; the knock on Walden is that she was a registered lobbyist for several years. Glassman says he’ll run no matter what Walden decides, and I think a primary here could actually be helpful if it stays clean.

On the GOP side of things, John McCain says he raised $2.2 million in the first quarter and has $4.5m on hand. Primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, meanwhile, seems like he hasn’t been doing quite so hot on the money front.

CA-Sen: A whiff of extra-special dumb: Carly Fiorina sent around an email to supporters describing Passover as a time to “break bread.” Of course, the one thing that Jews don’t eat on Passover is… bread. Trying to wiggle their way out of this one, a staffer tells TWI: “We meant all bread, leavened and unleavened, and matzo is just unleavened bread so that’s what we meant by that.” That still doesn’t work.

CT-Sen: GOP hopeful Linda McMahon is taking heat from opponent and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons for her $10,000 donation to the DCCC in 2006. Not only should this make McMahon suspect to Republicans, argues Simmons, but he seems to be tying that donation to the fact that he himself lost in 2006, perhaps nudged out the door by McMahon’s very own cash. (Considering Simmons came up just 83 votes short, he may have a point.)

FL-Sen: The joke is that when the New York Times finally gets to writing about a hitherto underground phenomenon (steampunk, miracle fruit, etc.), that’s the moment it becomes mainstream and therefore loses its cool. Marco Rubio’s “NYT moment” happened months ago, so anyone endorsing him at this late stage is about as cool as your mom using Facebook. Welcome to the club, Sen. Tom Coburn. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s old buddy, former FL GOP chair Jim Greer, is under criminal investigation for some sort of self-dealing.

KY-Sen: I think this is where Paulists probably part ways from teabaggers: Rand Paul thinks the government “shouldn’t be involved” in requiring people to wear seat belts. Not really sure ultra-libertarian whackness like this plays too well in most quarters. Please, please let this guy win the GOP primary. Incidentally, Paul says he’s raised $600K in the last quarter (lower than I would have thought), but also says he’s spent almost all of it. Apparently, though, he’s pre-paid for “the next six weeks of activity” (until the primary), perhaps locking in lower rates on things like TV ads.

MO-Sen: One last odd-n-end from PPP’s MO-Sen poll: Roy Blunt is under 50% against his unknown GOP primary challenger, Chuck Purgason – he leads 48-18. Purgason’s favorables are just 7-9 (not a typo), so obviously there’s a chunk of Republicans out there who just hate Blunt.

NC-Sen: Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt will endorse attorney Ken Lewis, who is seeking the Dem senate nomination. Gantt himself ran for the Senate twice, losing two close races to the unthinkably odious Jesse Helms. Meanwhile, GOP Sen. Richard Burr says he’s raised $1.4 million in the first quarter and is sitting on a $5.3 mil warchest. No word yet on any of the Dems.

TX-Sen: It looks we will have Kay Bailey Hutchison to kick around some more – for at least the next two years. She announced yesterday that she’ll serve out the remainder of her term, which ends in 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if she subsequently changed her mind (at least, after this November), but for now, that means TX-Sen comes off our “Races to Watch” list.

WI-Sen: Richie rich Terrence Wall says he’ll stay in the GOP primary even if ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson gets in. Wall had kind words for Thompson, and also thanked him for drawing Democratic fire, but it sounds like Wall wants to present himself as the “true conservative” option.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is the latest moron-American to jump onto the “healthcare reform is unconstitutional” bandwagon, agreeing wholeheartedly with a supporter who asked at a campaign event if she would “force your attorney general to file suit” against the legislation. (Of course, CA’s governor can do no such thing.) I really can’t wait until these idiots get punked out of court.

PA-Gov: Some fundraising numbers from some of the big players in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race – click the link for details. One of them, Dan Onorato, is up on the air with his first TV ads. No exact word on the size of the buy, but supposedly the ads are in “heavy rotation around the state,” which could cost $1 million.

It looks like Tennessee Democrats have their gubernatorial nominee settled out:

Former Tennessee state House Majority Leader Kim McMillan announced Wednesday she is ending her bid for the Democratic governor nomination, clearing the field for businessman Mike McWherter, and instead entering the Clarksville mayoral race.

McMillan’s departure had been rumored around the Volunteer state after a recent poll showed she would be competitive should she run for mayor in her hometown. […]

“I believe I can make a difference as Mayor of Tennessee’s 5th largest city,” McMillan concluded.

McMillan’s exit leaves business Mike McWherter, the son of ex-Gov. Ned McWherter, as the presumptive Democratic nominee. McWherter recently pledged to put in $1 million of his own money into the race, and, very pleasantly, is taking a non-bullshit approach on healthcare reform:

McWherter called the health care overhaul signed by Democratic President Barack Obama last week “the law of the land,” and criticized Republicans for urging the state to join a lawsuit seeking to block the law.

“Access to affordable, adequate health care is something that every Tennessean ought to have,” McWherter said. “And this should not be an issue that we politically grandstand about.”

McWherter will have to face the winner of a three-way Republican primary between Rep. Zach Wamp, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, state Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey.

Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, Alabama voters, no trend lines):

Artur Davis (D): 32

Bradley Byrne (R): 48

Ron Sparks (D): 30

Bradley Byrne (R): 43

Artur Davis (D): 33

Tim James (R): 42

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Tim James (R): 38

Artur Davis (D): 37

Roy Moore (R): 43

Ron Sparks (D): 37

Roy Moore (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Also included in the poll was state Treasurer Kay Ivey, who announced today that she’ll be switching races to the less-crowded Lt. Governor’s race. Ivey leads Davis by 44-33 and Sparks by 39-33.

In every permutation of this race tested by PPP, a greater share of Democrats are undecided compared to Republicans — especially in the match-ups against Byrne, where twice as many Democrats are undecided. Even if most of those voters come home, Democrats will need some lucky breaks in order to win here… breaks such as a Roy Moore primary win, for instance.

So a new pollster, We Ask America, has been running some gaudy numbers for Republican candidates and issues.  They released a slew of Illinois House polls with the following results:

IL-08 – Walsh (R) 38, Bean (D) 38

IL-10 – Seals (D) 40, Dold (R) 37

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 42, Halvorson (D) 30

IL-14 – Hultgren (R) 38, Foster (D) 36

IL-17 – Hare (D) 39, Schilling (R) 32

So here’s the rub.  We Ask America has Obama approval at 47-50 … IN ILLINOIS!!!

http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0…

Rasmussen had Obama approval in Illinois at 56-44 on March 10, just one day before We Ask America’s 47-50 finding.  The pollster.com average NATIONWIDE is 48-48.  Illinois was 20 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2008, so if we crudely extrapolate that, we get 58-38 Obama approval in Illinois.

But let’s take Rasmussen’s 56-44 approval rating, which is 15 POINTS better than We Ask America’s 47-50 in Illinois, and (again crudely) reconfigure the We Ask America polls:

IL-08 – Bean (D) 46, Walsh (R) 31

IL-10 – Seals (D) 48, Dold (R) 30

IL-11 – Halvorson (D) 38, Kinzinger (R) 35

IL-14 – Foster (D) 44, Hultgren (R) 31

IL-17 – Hare (D) 47, Schilling (R) 25

Seems more realistic to me given the probable differences in name recognition.  IL-11 is a close race, and the others are competitive – incumbents (and Seals who has run twice before) below 50%, with the challengers needing to play catchup in the name recongition department.

Kinzinger is an impressive candidate, and it would not surprise me if he is polling close with Halvorson.  But up 12?  Halvorson won an open seat by 20+% in 2008 and has represented a largely overlapping State Senate district for years.

If you look on the We Ask America website, they are also running some daunting healthcare numbers for members who voted yes, with roughly 60% or more of people in swing districts being more likely to vote against the incumbent for the “yes” vote.  I would love to know We Ask America’s Obama approval numbers in those districts.

I am not writing to disparage We Ask America.  I know nothing about them.  I have expressed my concerns about Rasmussen before, but I am even more concerned about new pollsters coming out of the woodwork and creating favorable narratives for one party.  I am reminded of the gaudy numbers for Scott Brown from Pajamas Media and Merriman River Group during his election, not to necessarily disparage either of those outfits either.  I just cannot remember this phenomenon happening in previous cycles.  In previous cycles, we seemed to get fairly consistent and credible polling information from a narrow group of seemingly reliable pollsters.

Something feels wrong here.  Certainly, polling seems very different and more partisan than it ever has before.  I hope that people with more expertise and bigger soapboxes than me will continue to vet these pollsters carefully and call them out if something is amiss.  

What I do know is that Obama at 47-50 approval in Illinois is embarrassingly inconsistent with all of the other information out there.  It would probably put Obama’s nationwide approval into the 30’s.  Things are tough for the Democrats, but they’re not that tough.

UPDATE: So I did some research on the identity of We Ask America.  Its website only discloses that it is a division of “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.”  But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.  

Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%.  He is also Treasurer of the Economic Freedom Alliance, which has targeted Democrat Bill Foster with advertising labeling him as a “job killer” for his support of card check legislation.

Its COO is Gregg Durham, a former spokesman for the Illinois Republican House Caucus and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.  

The bottom line is that this is a partisan Republican pollster and an arm of the pro-business Illinois Manufacturer’s Association.  There is nothing wrong with being a Republican pollster or being an arm of the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association.  However, there is something wrong with the half-ass disclosure on the website of an affiliation with “Xpress Professional Services, Inc.,” which could be anything, instead of a full disclosure of the direct link to the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association and its Republican principals.

Here are two local Illinois news articles on We Ask America’s ties:

http://www.sj-r.com/opinions/x…

http://www.suburbanchicagonews…

The Democratic primary for Scott Brown’s former Massachusetts State Senate seat is just 13 days away, on Tuesday, April 13th.

Two strong candidates are facing off for the nomination.

-Needham Town Meeting member Dr. Peter Smulowitz

http://petersmulowitz.com

and

-Needham, Dover and Medfield State Representative Lida Harkins

http://www.lidaharkins.com

Over the last few months, the race for the Democratic nomination, which many had expected to be a cakewalk for Harkins, has turned into an almost toss-up due to unexpectedly strong fundraising by Smulowitz and the strong grassroots campaign he has put together. Harkins still has to be considered the slight favorite though, because of her 21 years of service as State Representative to the largest voting town in the District.

So far, Smulowitz has been courting progressive voters and independents (who can vote in the D primary in MA) with his message as a left-leaning, reform-minded outsider who can take on the culture of corruption that permeates Beacon Hill.

Harkins, for her part, has been wooing the traditional Democratic constituencies like organized labor, and has gained a number of high-profile endorsements from unions and women’s groups.

The biggest issues thus far in the campaign have been the candidate’s differing positions on the issue of bringing legalized gambling to Massachusetts in the form of numerous resort-style casinos (Harkins is in favor, Smulowitz opposes), and Harkins’ history as a member of the House leadership on Beacon Hill where three consecutive speakers have been indicted on Federal charges.

Waiting in the wings for whoever emerges from the Democratic primary is State Rep. Richard Ross, R-Wrentham.

http://www.voteross.org/

Ross has to be seen as the favorite in this Republican-leaning District, although the fact that Scott Brown’s predecessor as State Senator was a liberal, openly lesbian Democrat has to give the Democrats some hope.

Campaign finance reports must be filed with the State by the end of business on April 5th (Monday), so at that time we will have a little more information available to see which campaigns are humming along and which are sputtering.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic Primary here, expect to see the State Parties and perhaps even national organizations get involved here. This seat has a symbolic value for both parties that can’t be underestimated.

The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of House race ratings for the 2010 election cycle:

You can also check out our House Vulnerability Index. We welcome your thoughts in comments.

Safe R:

     LA-03 (OPEN)

     NY-29 (OPEN)

     TN-06 (OPEN)

Last Updated: Nov. 2, 2010 at 8:15 AM

Previous Ratings

Quinnipiac (3/23-29, registered voters, 2/16-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (37)

Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)

Undecided: 21 (21)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (35)

Rob Portman (R): 37 (40)

Undecided: 23 (23)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (44)

John Kasich (R): 38 (39)

Undecided: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Compared to many of the other offerings we’ve seen out of Ohio lately, this poll contains some pretty welcome news. Still, it’s worth keeping in mind that Quinnipiac has had one of the friendlier records for Democrats in the gubernatorial race, probably due to the fact that Quinnipiac does not screen for likely voters.

Still, there’s good news to be found here for sure: Obama’s job approval has improved from 44-52 in February to 47-48 today, and the favorability of healthcare reform has shot up to 43-50 from 36-55. Those are the kinds of numbers that Democrats will need to see stabilized in order to have a shot in the Senate race.