Swing State Project

While it may feel like we wrapped up the election cycle on Tuesday, there are always more elections to come. This post covers the special and runoff legislative races coming up in the next month. There are three other important races, the Mass. Senate race and the Houston and Atlanta mayoral runoff races, that will be covered in a future post.

Dems have a chance at picking up one seat in California, two in Tennessee and one in Kentucky, while they are defending another seat in Kentucky, one in Georgia and one in Iowa. There are also two interesting inter-party fights going on in the Georgia runoffs.

This is cross posted on my new blog dedicated to following special elections and culling absentee ballot information from all states into one spot to increase turnout in local races. To read more about each race and learn more about the candidates, click here.

I am sure I left out some races – I hope you will let everyone know about them in the comments and I will be sure to write about them shortly

For the races, join me below the jump.

November 17 – CA Assembly 72 – This doesn’t mean much around these here parts, but there is a primary in Orange County for the seat of Republican Mike Duvall, who resigned due to a sex scandal earlier this year.

Three Republicans are vying for the chance to take on the Democratic candidate, John MacMurray, a teacher in La Habra, and the Green Party Candidate, Jane Rands. MacMurray’s website is here.

The general election will be held on January 12.

———————————————

On November 24, Democrats are defending a seat in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (HD 33) Democrats chose Kirsten Running-Marquardt as their candidate. A former aide to Congressman David Loebsack, her background is detailed here.

Republicans nominated Josh Thurston, an Iraq War veteran and Cargill employee

——————————————-



December 1 – Voters go back to work in Georgia for legislative runoffs and there are two special elections in Tennessee.

In Georgia, four races are being voted on in different parts of the state. Thanks to TheUnknown285 for all his help on these races.

SD 35

This Atlanta-based Senate district was represented by Kasim Reed, who is locked in a runoff race for Mayor of Atlanta, also to be held on December 1. Outside of parts of Atlanta, the district also represents:

College Park, Douglasville, East Point, Fairburn, Hapeville, Lithia Springs, Palmetto, and Union City

The two remaining candidates are Donzella James and Torrey Johnson,  both Democrats. James, who took the most votes in the first vote on December 3 is attempting to return to the State Senate after serving from 1994-2002. Johnson is an ordained Lutheran minister seeking his first elected office.

HD 58

To see a map of the Georgia House Districts, click http://georgiainfo.galileo.usg…

There is a runoff  in GA HD 58 between two Democrats. Asha Jackson faces Simone Bell in this Atlanta-based district.

HD 129

This district is comprised of most of Harris County and parts of Troup County and Muscogee County.

A pair of Republicans, Kip Smith and Steve Earles are facing off in this election.

HD 141

This district is made up of all of Baldwin County and a small piece of Putnam County. The Democratic incumbent did not run for reelection and so independent candidate Rusty Kidd will square off against Democrat Darrell Black.

———————————————-

In Tennessee, specifically East Memphis, voters will go to the polls to elect a new state senator to fill the seat of Republican Paul Stanley, SD 31, who resigned earlier this year. Many of the voters will also be picking in the primary for the 83rd House District in a  seat resigned by Republican Brian Kelsey, a candidate for Stanley’s seat.

In the State Senate race, covering covers most of Bartlett, almost all of Cordova and Germantown, a few East Memphis precincts and parts of Hickory Hill, Democrat Adrienne Pakis-Gillon is hoping to keep the seat in her party’s hands. A Shelby County Democratic Party Executive Committee Member, her website can be found at http://www.voteadrienne.com/.

The Republican candidate is former State Representative Brian Kelsey who was the Republican floor leader in the House for 2007-2008.

For the House race primary vacated by Kelsey, the candidates are Republicans Mark White and John Pellioccitti, Democrats Guthrie Castle and Ivan Faulkner and Independent John Andreucetti.

——————————————

December 8 – There are two races in Kentucky and one in Arkansas.

KY SD 14 and HD 96

Two races will be voted on December 8th in Kentucky. The State Senate race, located in a district in central Kentucky and comprised of Marion, Mercer, Nelson, Taylor and Washington counties, resulted from Republican Senator Dan Kelly being named to a circuit court judgeship.

The Republican nominee for SD-14 is State Representative Jimmy Higdon from Lebanon, KY.

The Democratic candidate is former State Representative Jodie Haydon, who is looking to return to the legislature after retiring from the House in 2004.

The House race is in north-east Kentucky, near the Ohio border, covering Lewis and Carter counties. Democratic Representative Robin Webb resigned the post after being elected to a State Senate seat.

In the House race, Democrats nominated Barry Webb, while Republicans chose Jill York.

———————————————

AR SD 4

There will be a special election held in District 4, which includes all of Yell County, the southern portion of Pope County and the eastern portion of Logan County. Republican Senator Sharon Trusty is resigning her seat.

There are three candidates on the ballot. Former State Representative Michael Lamoureux is attempting to return to the State House as the Republican candidate.

John Burnett is a Russellville Attorney and is running as a Democrat.

Tachany C. Evans is the Independent candidate and a member of the Board of Directors for Help Network, Inc.

——————————

That’s all for this time. Thanks for reading. I look forward to hearing about more races I should include and cover. To read more about each race and learn more about the candidates, click here.

Mike Castle is toast. Not only did he cast his vote against the Health Care Bill and for the anti-choice Stupak Amendment, he also drafted an amendment to allow health insurers to raise your premiums if you don’t sign up for a Wellness Plan.

Here is the amendment Mike Castle added to the GOP “Die Quickly” Health Insurance Bill.

   ”In applying subparagraph (B), a group health plan

   (or a health insurance issuer with respect to health

   insurance coverage) may vary premiums and cost

   sharing by up to 50 percent of the value of the benefits under the plan (or coverage) based on participation (or lack of participation) in a standards-based

   wellness program.”.

   (2) EFFECTIVE DATE.-The amendment made

   by paragraph (1) shall apply to plan years beginning

   more than 1 year after the date of the enactment of

   this Act.

(cross-posted at Delaware Liberal.

So Mike Castle’s contribution to the bill is to allow your health insurance company to raise your premiums 50% because you didn’t adhere to their strict-as-hell wellness program (which probably requires you to report to them your diet and exercise habits).

I’m serious, that’s Mike Castle’s plan – letting your insurance company raise your rates for not exercising enough. The goal is to generate profits for the health insurance monopolies that contribute huge sums of money to his campaign (an industry generating record profits at the expense of bankrupting consumers). This isn’t your typical “weak-tea” Castle spinelessness, this is the real Mike Castle finally showing it’s evil, crooked face and telling you to “bend over” in the name of profit.

The next time you hear someone suggest they might vote for Castle, or that he’s some kind of “moderate”, remind them that Castle wanted to raise our health insurance premiums 50%.

What a sick fucking crook.

Stick a fork in him folks, this is all the ammunition Beau Biden needs to destroy this schmuck. And Beau Biden will run, mark my words, and he will announce it this Tuesday at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. And I will be there, and so will papa Joe Biden and the Big Dog Bill Clinton.

The House passed the healthcare bill late last night, 220-215. Only one Republican, Joseph Cao (LA-02), voted in favor. Here are the Dems who voted no:

There was also a vote on an anti-abortion amendment, which passed 240-194. Sixty-four Democrats joined all Republicans in voting for this amendment. (John Shadegg voted “present.”)

P.S. I don’t like having to do this, but I’m going to remind everyone in advance to keep it civil on this thread. This is the place to discuss the electoral reasons why members of Congress voted the way they did, and the electoral impacts of those votes. Before you hit “post,” think about whether your comment falls under this description. If not, it’s probably off-topic.

UPDATE: In comments, DCal has a good summary of which Dems in R+3 or redder districts voted yes, and which Dems in R+2 or bluer districts voted no. Also, the NYT has a great interactive chart detailing the Dems who voted no.

Last night the House passed by a 220-115 vote the big health care reform bill.  And 2 Democrats’ votes demonstrate the short-sightedness of some of the people here who complain about “centrists” and “moderates” and “Blue Dogs” in open-seat House races.

Bill Owens of NY-23, who just beat Doug Hoffman days ago, was pilloried by a few liberals here and elsewhere as too conservative.  He was against the public option, he was too this, he was not enough that, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Well, a week before the election when he was running tight-as-a-tick in a purple district, he came out in the middle of the last campaign debate in favor of the House health care bill.  He reiterated support right after he was sworn in.  And last night he voted yes.

Meanwhile, Scott Murphy, as I recall, received only open hearts and minds on this blog earlier this year as he tried to pull off an upset win in a district similar to Owens’ NY-23, as he ran tying himself to Obama.

Well, last night Murphy voted NO on Obama’s biggest signature legislative effort.

This isn’t a diary to bash Murphy.  Far from it.  I have no regrets about having wanted Murphy to win that special election, and I still want him to hold the seat next November.

My point is that when it comes to open-seat races and Democratic challengers to Rethug incumbents, supporting the Democrat always is the best bet.  It’s foolish game-playing to hope a moderate Republican wins and somehow votes with us as much as an allegedly Blue Dog Democrat would have.

And it’s even more foolish to hope someone like Doug Hoffman wins.  Thanks to Owens’ victory, not only did we get a critical vote for health care, we defanged the hard right.  And we did so without discouraging them at all from attacking the likes of Charlie Crist and Mark Kirk in Republican primaries next year–they’re encouraged enough from having knocked out Scozzafava.  We got the best of every world.

And President Obama and Chief of Staff Emanuel deserve credit for the setup that allowed this to happen.  It proved a critical victory in the post-election narrative after we lost with a hopeless incumbent in NJ and a terrible candidate in VA.

The moral of the story is support Democrats in elections, because in the long run that’s what helps us the most.  There are exceptions, there are Liebermans out there who need to be primaried and, if they survive, maybe in extraordinary circumstances have support withheld in the general and allow a Republican to win; I easily can picture scenarios, even if very rare, when the long-term and even short-term for the party is better with that outcome.  But rare is the operative term for that kind of scenario.  By and large, supporting the Democrat gets us a lot closer to where we want to be in the House and Senate chambers.

Click here (and bookmark) this incredibly valuable tool. It’s the Swing State Project’s sortable calendar of filing deadlines, primary dates, and, where applicable, runoff dates in all fifty states. Very useful – try it! (We’ll also permalink it in the right-hand sidebar under “SSP Resources.”)

I also wanted to take this opportunity to ask: which states have party conventions instead of or in addition to primaries, and how do they each work? I know, for instance, that Minnesota, Connecticut and Utah all have conventions, but their effects on ballot access differ somewhat from one another. Convention experts, please enlighten us.

Freshly baked thread.

UPDATE (David): I’m doing something I don’t think I’ve ever had to do before at SSP – I’m closing the comments on this thread. I am very disappointed right now. I’m pretty tired of reminding people that this is the Swing State Project, and we discuss politics, not policy, here. You all know that. What’s more, the kind of personal attacks on display in this thread are completely unacceptable here.

• House: Congratulations to Rep. John Garamendi, who was sworn in yesterday, and Rep. Bill Owens, who was sworn in today. Garamendi and Owens are joining the Democratic caucus as quickly as possible so that they can be eligible to vote on healthcare reform this weekend. (D)

• AR-Sen: Remember how yesterday NRSC chair John Cornyn caved to the party’s right flank, and said that he wouldn’t spend money in primaries or endorse in the future? Well, that lasted about a day: turns out that state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the GOP’s best shot in Arkansas, will be having a fundraiser in Washington DC on the 19th… at the NRSC. (The NRSC did announce that it still didn’t amount to endorsement, and that other Arkansas candidates were still welcome to have fundraisers at the NRSC. Uh, call me when there’s actually a fundraiser for head teabagger Tom Cox at the NRSC building.) More generally, CQ has a nice overview of the tightrope Cornyn is walking as he tries to make some inroads in swing states in 2010.

• CA-Sen: Perhaps in an attempt to give some cover to Cornyn (whose hand-picked candidate, Carly Fiorina, is raising the ire of the Chuck DeVore-supporting right wing), eight GOP Senators all endorsed Fiorina yesterday: a couple from leadership (McConnell, Kyl), the moderate women (Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski), some chit-cashing from last year (McCain and Graham), and one from total right field (Coburn). Tom Coburn’s endorsement is especially surprising in view of fellow wackadoodle Jim DeMint’s endorsement of DeVore. DeMint, for his part, is still attacking John Cornyn’s recruitment efforts today, perfectly encapsulating the right-wing mentality while saying “He’s trying to find candidates who can win. I’m trying to find people who can help me change the Senate.”

• FL-Sen: After Charlie Crist’s bizarre denials that he ever supported the Obama stimulus package, the White House left Crist out to dry yesterday, saying that, yes, in fact, he did support the stimulus.

• KS-Sen: This may fall under the “endorsement you don’t want to tout too loudly” category, although with most of the big-name endorsements so far going to Rep. Jerry Moran in the Kansas Senate race, Rep. Todd Tiahrt will probaly take what he can get. Former AG and Senator John Ashcroft endorsed Tiahrt.

• MT-Sen: Here’s what has the potential to be one of 2012’s hottest Senate races, already shaping up. Rep. Denny Rehberg, the state’s lone at-large Congressperson, met with the NRSC concerning a possible run at Jon Tester.

• CA-Gov: With ex-Gov. Jerry Brown suddenly finding himself with the gubernatorial primary field to himself for now, a familiar face has popped up yet again. Dianne Feinstein, who all year has alternately expressed interest and dismissed rumors of her interest, is now back to saying that she still hasn’t ruled out a gubernatorial run. She’ll wait to see what proposals for fixing the badly-broken state the various candidates put out before deciding whether or not to get in herself.

• IL-Gov: Somehow this got lost in all the shuffle surrounding Election Day, but it’s kind of important: after a short period of being the subject of speculation, Jim Ryan made it official that he’s running for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Illinois. He probably becomes the frontrunner in the GOP field, by virtue of name rec: he was the state’s Attorney General from 1994-2002, and lost the 2002 governor’s race to Rod Blagojevich. The rest of the GOP field is a hodge-podge of state Senators and county-level officials, with state GOP chair Andy McKenna maybe the best known of the rest. Ryan’s biggest problem may be hoping people don’t confuse him with imprisoned ex-Gov. George Ryan or weird-sex-fan and 2004 Senate candidate Jack Ryan.

• MN-Gov: Another gubernatorial entry that seemed to fly below the radar this week is also a big one: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak filed to run for governor yesterday. The well-liked Rybak seems like one of the likeliest candidates to prevail in the very crowded Democratic field.

• NJ-Gov: There are going to be a lot of coulda-shoulda-wouldas in the next few weeks in New Jersey, and here’s a big one already. State Senate leader (and former acting Governor) Richard Codey says that the White House contacted him repeatedly over the summer about taking over for Corzine on the ticket, and that Corzine and Codey even discussed it. Codey deferred to Corzine’s decision to stay in — although Corzine nearly decided to pack it in. Reportedly, internal polls over the summer showed Codey beating Chris Christie by double digits.

• NY-Gov: David Paterson is going on the air with two different TV spots (including one where he admits to “lots of mistakes”), apparently trying to bring up his approvals before deciding whether or not to run again in 2010. Paterson is still looking to move forward on the contentious issue of gay marriage, though, planning to put it on the agenda for next week’s special session. It may not have the votes to clear the Senate, but it hasn’t really been put to the test yet. (The worry is that moderate Republicans in the Senate who might have been on board earlier may be leerier now, afraid of getting Scozzafavaed by the right.)

• NY-23: A rare bit of history was made on Tuesday, in that a seat flipping to the president’s party in a House special election (as opposed to a tough retention, as in NY-20) is highly unusual. The most recent case was in VA-04 in 2001, when Republican Randy Forbes picked up a swing district left open by the death of Dem Norman Sisisky. (Subsequent gerrymandering turned the 4th into a safe GOP seat.) The previous instances before that were in 1989, 1988, and 1983.

• TX-32: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 3? One more article piles on the “loser” meme regarding Sessions’ series of NY-23 screwups — and it comes from his hometown paper in Dallas. Meanwhile at home, Sessions is now facing a primary challenge from the right, from financial analyst David Smith. Smith is upset about the Scozzafava thing, but mostly focusing on Sessions’ TARP vote. Still, a primary challenge from the right against one of the House’s most conservative members? Seems like that’d be like going after Tammy Baldwin from the left.

• WI-02: Oh, wait. But that’s exactly what some guy is doing. And he’s not just a rube who fell off the biodiesel-fueled organic turnip truck while reaching for his bong: it’s an actual member of the Board of Supervisors of Dane County (where Madison is). David de Felice is upset that Baldwin hasn’t pushed harder for single-payer health care.

• WI-08: Two different new entries in the Green Bay-based 8th. Physician and Air Force vet Marc Trager got into the Republican field to go against Democratic sophomore Rep. Steve Kagen, where businessman Reid Ribble seems to have the inside track based on fundraising and NRCC-touting so far. And yet another random right-winger is imagining his own head superimposed on Doug Hoffman’s body: former Niagara mayor Joe Stern will run as a grassroots conservative independent in 2010.

• NY Comptroller: A piece on New York 1 speculates that NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson, fresh off a much narrower-than-expected loss to Mayor Mike Bloomberg, could challenge New York State Comptroller Bill DiNapoli in the Democratic primary next year. DiNapoli, you may recall, was appointed to the seat after Alan Hevesi resigned. Thompson said he’s not currently looking at the race, but says that nothing is off the table. (D)

• WA-Init: Referendum 71 was finally called by the press (for the side of equality). Although more votes remain to be counted in the currently 52-48 race, it would require a bizarre turnaround in King County (where it’s currently at 70% approval) to change the result. Meanwhile, Seattle‘s mayoral race is still up in the air; Mike McGinn leads by a 515-vote margin (out of 130,000 counted so far).

• Census: As expected, the Vitter amendment requiring the Census to include a question on citizenship was blocked by Democrats. Conservatives don’t want undocumented immigrants to count for apportionment, and there’s an added incentive for David Vitter, as Louisiana might be able to salvage its 7th seat if such legislation were passed.

• Primaries: MoveOn and DFA are allocating millions of dollars to potential primary challenges against any Democrats who join a Republican filibuster on health care. (The only one who’s on the fence about that and actually up in 2010 is Blanche Lincoln, and nobody of consequence has stepped up to primary her from the left yet, although Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has alluded to the idea.)

• Polling: Mark Blumenthal has a good wrapup of how the various pollsters did on Tuesday. As others have pointed out, IVR polls outperformed live pollsters, at least in the two gubernatorial races (even though they still got weird results in the crosstabs, especially on race). Blumenthal also analyzes what went wrong in NY-23 polling. Also on the polling front, it looks like Nate Silver may have succeeded in scaring off Strategic Vision LLC. As he reports today, not only did they never get around to suing him, but they haven’t released any polls since the imbroglio began, despite that this week’s election would be the prime time to do so.

• WATN?: Finally, we have sad news to report: the Mumpower has finally been contained. Republican Carl Mumpower, the out-of-the-box thinker who lost spectacularly to Rep. Heath Shuler in 2008, got bounced out of his position as Asheville City Councilor on Tuesday.

The Texas House is supposed to be one of our top priorities in 2010, however as of this morning it just got that much harder. Long time state representative Chuck Hopson announced he would be seeking re-election as a Republican.

Now, re-election for Hopson was going to be difficult. He barely scraped by in 2008 with 26, 042 votes (49.3%) over his republican opponent who got 25,928 votes (49.1%). At the same time Obama got clobbered in Hopson’s district 11 collecting only 27.5% of the vote to McCain’s 71.9%.

Hopson’s statement on switching parties is short, sweet, and shallow.

President Obama and the Democrats in Congress just don’t reflect the values of this district.”

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie released the following statement.

It takes strength and integrity to stand against the special interests – and while some members have that strength, others like Chuck Hopson, apparently do not. In the Democratic Party, there is room for members who are conservative and progressive – the only reason anyone would leave is for crass political reasons and a refusal to stand up to special interests.

Democrats lost three seats they previously controlled in 2008, one of them being an open seat with similar demographics to district 11, located in the area between San Antonio and Houston. Going into 2010, Democrats have another rural open seat near Withita Falls that is currently held by David Farabee. With Farabee and Hopson gone, the number of rural, white democrats in Texas are dropping precariously. I’m not sure how many are left now besides Mark Homer, Joe Heflin, and Stephen Frost.

Republicans now control the Texas House 77-73.

Resources:

Hopson’s district map – http://www.house.state.tx.us/m…

Source – http://www.texastribune.org/st…

Democrats got their woman in Iowa, expanding the Senate playing field a bit:

Des Moines lawyer Roxanne Conlin plans to file paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission next week to run for U.S. Senate next year, adviser Mark Daley said today.

Conlin, a Democrat, has said last month she is more likely than not to seek the seat held by five-term Republican Chuck Grassley, but had to work out how she was going to handle her law practice and staff a campaign first.

Conlin is best known for running for Governor in 1982 (ironically against Terry Branstad, who’s back for another gubernatorial run). She was only 38 then, meaning she’s a spry 65 now. While she might not have that much residual name rec leftover from 27 years ago, her main asset is money. She’s gotten wealthy from her involvement in some class action suits, and she plans to spend up to $10 million on her bid.

She’ll be helped along by the precipitous decline in Grassley‘s approval numbers, which just happen to coincide with his transparently bad-faith negotiating on health care reform. The one poll of this matchup, an R2K poll from last month, shows Grassley leading Conlin 51-39.

RaceTracker Wiki: IA-Sen