Swing State Project

• AR-Sen: It took new Arkansas Senate candidate Conrad Reynolds only the first day of his candidacy to descend to the same levels of right-wing gaffe insanity as fellow candidates Kim Hendren and Curtis Coleman. Speaking before about a dozen Young Republicans yesterday, he said, “I never thought it would be domestic, but in today’s world I do believe we have enemies here,” and then said “We need someone to stand up to Barack Obama and his policies. We must protect our culture, our Christian identity.” Following his speech, though, before he took questions, he said he’d be careful with answers, as “I don’t want to do a Kim Hendren,” he said.

• NH-Sen: It looks like Ovide Lamontagne is going full speed ahead on a run in the New Hampshire Senate primary, with his path, be it as it may, gaving gotten easier with fellow renegade Fred Tausch dropping out. He hired two key members of the Mitt Romney camp: Charlie Spies, who was the Romney campaign’s CFO, and Jim Merrill, who managed Romney’s NH campaign.

• NV-Sen: Here’s another bad sign for John Ensign: his chief of staff, John Lopez, just bailed out. The timing, with Ensign facing fallout over trying to cover up an affair with a staffer, probably isn’t coincidental.

• PA-Sen: In the wake of yesterday’s ominious Quinnipiac poll, Arlen Specter has retreated to the last refuge of troubled politicians: attacking the poll’s composition. (Hey! That’s our job!) Nate Silver re-ran the numbers using the actual 2008 party split (D 44, R 37, I 18) and found it really didn’t make much difference: 46-43 in Specter’s favor. Meanwhile, a popular new activity among Democratic party bigwigs in Pennsylvania is telling Joe Sestak to shut up; both Allegheny Co. party chair Jim Burn and Philly-area official Penny Gerber took loud exception to implications from the Sestak camp that they were backing him.

• AK-Gov: Two Democrats both officially announced their candidacies to run, presumably, against Sean Parnell in 2010: state Senator Hollis French, and former Dept. of Administration Commissioner Bob Poe. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz also says he’ll officially become a candidate in late summer or early fall.

• MN-Gov: Democratic State Rep. Paul Thissen announced his candidacy for Minnesota’s governor today. Hard to see, though, how a state Representative stands out in a field that seems to contain every major politician in the state.

• CA-10: EMILY’s List finally got involved in the special election in CA-10. As you’d expect, they’re backing Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who as the only woman in the race has a definite shot to sneak through while the better-known male candidates (Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier) split the vote.

• IL-10: A new Roll Call piece on IL-10 adds a few more names to the potential primary fields. For the Dems, Highland Park City Councilor Jim Kirsch may get in. And for the GOP, it sounds like state Sen. Matt Murphy is now thinking about running here; he’s currently running for Governor, in a crowded field of second-stringers, and might stand better odds here.

• NC-08: Lou Huddleston, an African-American veteran and defense industry consultant, may wind up being the GOP’s candidate against Larry Kissell; after having visited Capitol Hill for some wooing, he says he’ll decide by Labor Day. (His one attempt at elective politics was a losing campaign for a state House seat in 2008.) Some bigger names, including ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, haven’t ruled the race out yet, though.

• NJ-03: The Burlington County GOP is saying that moderate state Sen. Diane Allen (who’d been on the short list for Chris Christie’s Lt. Gov. pick) is now their top choice to run against freshman Rep. John Adler. Interestingly, this is the same organization that basically torpedoed her interest in running for the open seat in 2008, leaving more conservative Chris Myers (and presumably less electable) to run instead. Allen is still sounding non-commital, especially since the party leadership in more conservative Ocean County continues to sound lukewarm about her.

• NY-23: The Conservative Party isn’t at all pleased with the selection of socially liberal Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as the GOP’s candidate in the NY-23 special election. State party chair Mike Long said that likely Democratic candidate Darrel Aubertine actually has a more “palatable” record. The Conservatives plan to run their own candidate on their line, he says, and party activist Jim Kelly has expressed interest.

• OH-02: This is good news: the Democrats actually found an honest-to-gosh state Representative to go against Rep. Jean Schmidt: Todd Book. David Krikorian, who got a sizable share of the vote as an Independent in 2008, is already running as a Democrat in the primary, but looks like he’s getting shoved over: Governor Ted Strickland has already endorsed Book. (Book is from Strickland’s hometown of Portsmouth.)

• SC-01: A Georgetown restauranteur, Robert Dobbs, announced he’ll run for the Democrats in SC-01. He has electoral experience… but in Wisconsin, where he was a Manitowoc County Supervisor. (Although I hope it is, I assume this isn’t the “Bob” Dobbs.) Other more prominent Democratic figures, like state Rep. Leon Stavinrakis, are also considering the race.

• SC-03: Former Cincinnati Bengals coach Sam Wyche, who led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 1989, is considering running as a Republican for the open seat in the 3rd, vacated by Gresham Barrett, running for Governor. Wyche isn’t a total newbie to politics, as he’s currently serving on the Pickens County Council. He’d bring a lot of name recognition to the field, where state Representative Rex Rice is probably current frontrunner. (Democrats are unlikely to strongly contest this freakishly red district.)

The Census Bureau on Tuesday released a treasure trove of voting statistics, but perhaps most interesting were statistics comparing the Hispanic vote between 2004 and 2008. Here’s Governing magazine’s Josh Goodman on what happened:

The Census estimates that there were 9.745 million Hispanic voters in 2008, compared to 7.587 million in 2004 — an increase of 28.4%. Overall, an estimated 131.114 million Americans voted in 2008, compared to 125.736 million in 2004, an increase of just 4.3%. Another way of looking at it: there were 5.4 million additional votes cast in 2008 compared to 2004 and about 2.2 million of them were cast by Hispanics.

The gain was particularly dramatic in California, where there were 2.08 million Hispanic votes in 2004, and 2.96 million in 2008 (which is 21% of all votes in California). (This rapid gain dovetails with the sudden pro-Obama shift in many of California’s red districts.)

Percentage-wise, this gain is nothing compared with the gain in Georgia, though; although Hispanic votes are only 3% of the vote there, they shot up from 26,000 to 128,000 votes from 2004 to 2008. Overall, this has to be seen as good news for Democrats — when a group that makes up half of all new voters polls in your favor by a 2-to-1 margin (Obama polled at 67% in exit polls among Latinos).

It’s also worth noting that the 5 million increase also included 2 million more black voters and 600,000 more Asian voters — meaning, if you do the math, hardly any gains at all came from white voters. In terms of age groups, young voters (18-24) were the only group to show a statistically significant increase in voting rates (but they still remained the group with the lowest turnout: 49%).

Conventional wisdom is that the African-American and youth voter numbers seem largely driven by a spike in participation associated with the historic nature of the Obama candidacy, and may be poised to fall off a little in future elections. However, the increasing Latino numbers were also driven partly by increased participation: the voting rate (the percent of persons of that race who voted) among Latinos went up 4%, the same percentage that it went up among African-Americans. It remains to be seen whether Latinos continue to increase their participation rate (their voting rate was still only 49%, compared with 66% for non-Hispanic whites and 65% for blacks). But even if their voting rate falls off, growth among the Hispanic population will still make them a larger and larger proportion of the pool of voters.

Previous diares

Summary:

 MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R

 MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R

 MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R

 MT has 1 rep, a Repub.

Possibly vulnerable:

  MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)

  MO-09 (R) (maybe)  

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: MN-01

Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Tim Walz (D)

VoteView 190

First elected 2006

2008 margin  63-33 over Brian Davis

2006 margin  53-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Kline (R)

VoteView 397

First elected 2002

2008 margin  57-43 over Steve Sarvi

2006 margin  56-40

2004 margin  56-40

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment  This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010.  Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Erik Paulsen (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)

Assessment  This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.  

District: MN-04

Location  St. Paul and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2000

2008 margin  69-31 over Ed Matthews

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Obama margin 64-32

Bush margin 2004 34-57

Current opponents Ed Matthews

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

VoteView 11

First elected 2006

2008 margin  71-22 over Barb White

2006 margin  56-21

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  40th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)

VoteView 399

First elected 2006

2008 margin  46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson.  It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).

2006 margin  50-42 over John Binkowski

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)

Demographics  53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Bachmann is vulnerable.  She’s insane.  But she’s already raised $600K.  On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K.  For a challenger, that’s impressive.  I have no figures for Tinklenburg.

District: MN-07

Location  Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 214

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-28 over Glenn Menzie

2006 margin  70-26

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Safe.  OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.

District: MN-08

Location map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative James Oberstar (D)

VoteView 107

First elected 1974

2008 margin  68-32 over Michael Cummins

2006 margin  64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004  46-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Travis Childers (D)

VoteView 239

First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)

2008 margin  54-44

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment  Safe.  Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here.  Easily.  

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

VoteView 45

First elected 1993

2008 margin  69-31 over Richard Cook

2006 margin  64-36

2004 margin  58-41

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment  Safe.  

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Gregg Harper (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  63-37 over Joel Gill

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents Joel Gill

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%

Assessment  Long shot.

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf  map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

VoteView 219

First elected 1989

2008 margin  75-25 over John McKay

2006 margin  80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS.  I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%).  At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.

Assessment  Safe.

District: MO-01

Location St Louismap

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative William Lacy Clay

VoteView 39.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 75-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-02

Location  A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Todd Akin (R)

VoteView 412

First elected 2000

2008 margin  62-35 over Bill Haas

2006 margin  61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-03

Location  Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 153

First elected 2004

2008 margin  66-30 over Chris Sander

2006 margin  66-32

2004 margin  53-45

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Ike Skelton (D)

VoteView 208

First elected 1976

2008 margin  66-34 over Jeff Parnell

2006 margin  68-29

2004 margin  66-32

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 2004

2008 margin  64-36 over Jacob Turk

2006 margin  64-32

2004 margin  55-42

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-06

Location  Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Sam Graves (R)

VoteView 382

First elected 2000

2008 margin  59-37 over Kay Barnes

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin  64-35

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.

District: MO-07

Location map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki

Demographics   86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican

Assessment  This looks like a long shot for any Democrat

District: MO-08

Location   Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 265

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-26 over Joe Allen

2006 margin  72-26

2004 margin  72-27

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  50-47 over Judy Baker

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    31st most rural (54.2%)

Assessment  Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent

District: MT-AL

Location Whole state map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 304

First elected 2000

2008 margin  64-32 over John Driscoll

2006 margin  61-36

2004 margin  65-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant

Demographics    68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.  

CQ Politics has an article that I think all of you would find interesting. Here’s a sample from the article:

As the second-ranking senator in the Democratic majority, Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin of Illinois has the clout to raise plenty of campaign cash. As the holder of a safe seat, Durbin doesn’t need to spend much to win re-election.

So Durbin can donate surplus campaign cash to candidates and political organizations like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which received $150,000 last month from his campaign fund. Senators can give unlimited amounts of campaign funds to party committees, and Durbin was the DSCC’s biggest donor last month.

Durbin isn’t the only Senatorial contributor, but he is the most generous. And of course, we all know how important such contributions are.

One of the new initiatives over at the NRCC under Pete Sessions’ watch has been the creation of its “Patriot Program”, a Frontline-like fundraising effort to shore up the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. The first round was launched in May, and now the NRCC is adding 15 new names to the effort. Roll Call has the dirt, but here are the targeted district in sortable chart form:

It’s a bit of a weird list, one that’s a mixture of incumbents in real danger (Bachmann, Terry, Dent) and more than a few names who I don’t expect will receive serious challenges this cycle (Garrett, Jenkins, the Louisiana twins, and Luetkemeyer) or anytime soon (Lummis). While the first batch of Patriot participants came predominantly from Obama districts, the opposite is true for this second round. Only Bono Mack, Terry, and Dent occupy districts that Obama won (though McCain barely won NV-02). Amusingly, birther nutcase Bill Posey finds his way onto the list; you may remember Posey as the guy whom the DCCC could find no warm body to run against in 2008, other than Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe.

Also interesting is who ain’t on the list for the second time in a row: Bill Young (FL-10) and Mike Castle (DE-AL). Both are facing strong challengers (though Charlie Justice has some work to do), and while Castle admits that a re-election bid is unlikely, the geriatric Young’s exclusion seems more telling. Or is the NRCC perhaps hedging its bets?

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters, 5/20-26 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Primary:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55 (50)

Joe Sestak (D): 23 (21)

Undecided: 19 (27)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Snarlin’ Arlen finds himself on slightly more comfortable footing in the primary, but the general election is a different story. I can’t tell if the sample’s been skewed a bit in the GOP’s favor or not — Quinnipiac did poll an almost equal amount of Dems as they did Republicans this time, which is not something they did in May (and not something that reflects the Democratic registration advantage in PA), but it’s also possible that these are oversamples made for the purposes of getting a clearer primary picture on both sides. It’s hard for me to tell without being able to pop open the hood. It’d be surprising to me if Quinnipiac fell victim to a mistake that any Polling 101 student would spot, but stranger things have happened.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

Politico:

Republican party leaders chose state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a leading moderate in the state legislature, as their nominee to succeed Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) in an upcoming special election.

The eleven Republican county chairmen within the 23rd Congressional District voted this afternoon, and Scozzafava won on the third ballot.

Scozzafava is a pretty rare breed these days — a socially liberal (pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, labor-friendly) Republican, so it’s a bit surprising that someone cut from her cloth could win a nomination battle in today’s GOP. Then again, she was chosen by the 23rd District’s county chairs, not the birther-dominated rank and file, so perhaps some sanity remains intact in the NY GOP intelligentsia these days. That said, she’s going to run into some serious problems with the conservative base, and it seems unlikely that she’ll win the Conservative Party’s ballot line, especially if Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine jumps into the fray. (Update: Just to be a bit clearer here, I don’t think there’s any chance of the Conservative Party endorsing Aubertine, but they could field their own candidate in order to flip the bird to the GOP.)

This also comes on the same day that a significant amount of oppo dirt was released on Scozzafava, who was vetted and courted by Democratic operatives as a potential party-switcher:

But their interest cooled after they found out her brother’s business, Seaway Capital Partners, owed over $192,000 in unpaid state and federal taxes – which operatives thought could be a liability in the special election.

The conservative blog Red State — one of her leading critics — recently posted copies of the liens from the company’s subsidiaries. On her legislative website, Scozzafava is listed as the COO of the company’s investment arm, though she claims she hasn’t had any direct ties to the company since 2007.

Not exactly the best press to receive on your launch date, huh? For what it’s worth, the Republican online wingnut brigade is encouraging its readers to support Aubertine over Scozzafava. God bless those magnificent idiots.

RaceTracker wiki: NY-23

• FL-Sen: Looks like Charlie Crist has decided that, despite mediocre polling and worse fundraising from Marco Rubio, he’s facing a bigger threat in the primary than he is in the general. Crist came out in opposition to the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor yesterday, trying to shore up what remains of his conservative bona fides.

• IL-Sen/Gov: Here’s an explanation for why Chris Kennedy has been dawdling on declaring for the Illinois Senate primary: he’s considering whether or not to jump over to the Governor’s race instead. This seems very odd… not that he’d have a good chance in either race, but it seems like he’d have a better shot in a primary in an open seat race against Alexi Giannoulias, who has some vulnerabilities, than against Pat Quinn, who’s fairly popular and has the benefits of incumbency. Apparently Giannoulias’s fundraising scared him off.

• MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting tidbit out of Missouri, suggesting that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is getting less and less likely to run in the GOP primary. Jeff Roe, who ran Steelman’s 2008 campaign, has started working for Rep. Roy Blunt. Blunt still faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Chuck Purgason, though, but he doesn’t pose the same level of threat that Steelman would.

• NH-Sen: This is a big surprise, as he’s been pouring a lot of money into advertising (for his STEWARD organization, though, not as a candidate) and starting to build a staff. Anti-tax businessman Fred Tausch announced today that he won’t be running in the GOP Senate primary after all (or for anything, including the House). Considering that he was lobbing bombs at AG Kelly Ayotte just a few days ago, this is a sudden change of heart. Former Board of Education member and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne may still provide a challenge from the right, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Last night was the vaunted Bill Clinton/Carolyn Maloney fundraiser, which pulled in about $300K for Maloney’s House account. Meanwhile, the Albany Project has an interesting catch in this race. It turns out that there was one question from the internal poll in May that gave Maloney a 34-32 lead over Kirsten Gillibrand that didn’t get released to the public, and only came out in that City Hall News profile from a few days ago: “Asked whom they would vote for if they knew Gillibrand had the support of Schumer and Obama, people chose Gillibrand over Maloney 50-24.”

• IA-Gov: A fifth candidate officially got into the GOP field in the Iowa governor’s race yesterday: little-known state Rep. and pastor Rod Roberts, who represents a rural part of western Iowa. Roberts polled a whopping 1% in a poll last week by the Iowa Republican blog of the GOP primary field; the poll found Bob Vander Plaats leading the field with 46%, trailed by Chris Rants at 16%, and Paul McKinley and Christian Fong each at 3%. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver defeats Vander Plaats 48-39 and Rants 46-36.

• NV-02: Ooops, back to square one in the 2nd. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg, who said she’d run against Rep. Dean Heller in 2010, has backed out, saying she needs to focus on the school board for now instead.

• NY-23: The NRCC has gone on the air in the 23rd, launching pre-emptive TV attacks on state Sen. Darrel Aubertine before he’s even a declared candidate for the special election, for voting for new taxes in the state Senate. Meanwhile, word has leaked (perhaps from GOP rival Matt Doheny’s camp) that moderate Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was in fact under consideration for the Democratic nomination, but that they were scared off by unpaid tax problems associated with her brother’s business (for which she’s listed as the COO).

• VA-11: Home inspection company owner Keith Fimian has decided on a rematch with Rep. Gerry Connolly in the now-blue 11th. Fimian, who can self-fund, lost the 2008 open seat race to Connolly, 55-43.

• NY-LG: A New York judge put the kibosh on David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lieutenant Governor, issuing a temporary injunction to stop it, saying the state constitution does not appear to permit appointment to fill a vacancy in that position. Still, even if the appointment never goes through, it looks like it may have succeeded for Paterson, in terms of forcing Pedro Espada’s hand and breaking the state Senate deadlock.

• OH-AG: As was previously leaked, former Senator Mike DeWine announced today that he’ll run for state Attorney General. He’ll face off against Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray.

• Fonts: Ever wondered about the font that defined the Obama campaign in 2008? Here’s a profile of that “uniquely American” sans-serif typeface, Gotham.

From the Allentown Morning Call:

Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will run for Congress against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent in 2010, sources say, setting up a political battle the likes of which the Lehigh Valley hasn’t seen in 17 years.

The two-term mayor has made his decision clear to Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania and Washington and is preparing to put a campaign team in place. An official announcement is expected soon.

This is a pretty huge score for the DCCC, and Callahan is likely the biggest outstanding Democratic House recruit who’s yet to make a formal decision on a 2010 run.

More:

Elected in 2003 at 34, Callahan has long been viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party. He’s president of the Pennsylvania League of Cities and Municipalities. As mayor, he has presided over a period of huge change in Bethlehem, highlighted by the controversial decision to redevelop the former Bethlehem Steel land into a massive retail and entertainment complex anchored by a casino. Dent opposed the casino plan.

“This is a tremendous recruiting success for Democrats in this district, and it is important they capitalize on it,” said Mark Nevins, a Philadelphia-based strategist and former staffer at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Dent has had an easy ride against a series of flawed challengers, most recently pasting Sam Bennett by a monstrous 59-41 margin while Barack Obama was carrying the district with 56% of the vote, so there’s no question that this is going to be one tough race even with a competent candidate at the helm. Still, with redistricting right around the corner, this at the very least gives Democrats the chance to soften Dent up going into 2012.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-15