Swing State Project

“Exploratory committees almost always are precursors to full-fledged campaigns, though Gerlach said Thursday’s announcement was not tantamount to a declaration of candidacy. He issued a written statement saying he would take the next few months to “speak with political, business and community leaders, help our 2009 statewide judicial candidates, conduct polling and determine if there is a clear path to victory.”

“I suspect that by late spring we’ll know whether to formally move forward with a campaign for governor,” he added.”

He really does see the writing on the wall. His House seat should be a relatively straight-forward pickup in an open seat no?

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

Don’t call it a comeback, he’s been here for years:

Barely a month out of office, former Rep. Steve Chabot has filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to run for his old congressional seat.

Chabot confirmed to The Enquirer in an exclusive interview Thursday that he is indeed gearing up for a re-match against Rep. Steve Driehaus, the Democrat who beat him 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent in last November’s election.

“Yes, I intend to run and I intend to win,” Chabot said, speaking from his law office in Westwood.

Chabot said he decided to run again because of the outpouring of support from constituents and a feeling that the massive stimulus package being considered in Congress is not the way out of the current economic crisis.

Sort of surprising that Chabot wants to claw his way back into John Boehner’s playpen so soon — I believe he is the first defeated incumbent of 2008 to definitively announce plans for a rematch. While Driehaus will have to stay on his game (or perhaps even elevate it, given his rather mediocre ’08 fundraising record), rematches like this one are seldom successful.

Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 56

John Kasich (R): 26

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 54

Mike DeWine (R): 32

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Mike DeWine (R): 37

John Kasich (R): 22

Kevin Coughlin (R): 3

(MoE: ±5.1%)

Ted Strickland is starting to look fairly secure in his 2010 bid for re-election as Ohio governor, posting double-digit margins against two top-tier challengers. Strickland is well-liked (60 favorable/19 unfavorable), while ex-Sen. Mike DeWine inspires a whole lot of “meh” and people seem to simply not remember anything about ex-Rep. John Kasich (21 favorable/6 unfavorable, with 71% don’t know). Although Kasich has been the name most closely linked to this race, he loses the primary to DeWine, probably on the strength of the two-term senator’s statewide name recognition, although he still fares better than State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, the only declared candidate at this time.

You may remember that a few weeks ago, a PPP poll gave Strickland only a 6-point margin over Kasich for 2010. One of these polls must be way off. (Considering that the PPP poll found only 52% African-American support for Strickland, my money is on PPP being more of an outlier.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Ben Chandler (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45

Jack Conway (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46

Crit Luallen (D): 41

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45

Dan Mongiardo (D): 42

Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46

Ben Chandler (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Jack Conway (D): 41

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Crit Luallen (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 42

Dan Mongiardo (D): 42

Trey Grayson (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K polls the Bluegrass State on behalf of the Orangehate Site, and we are looking at a very tight Senate race. Jim Bunning, who has been the subject of some very public pressure from Republican leadership to get out of the way, is leading his likely Democratic opposition by 3 or 4 points. The four likeliest Democratic challengers (Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen, and Bunning’s 2004 opponent, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo; of these four, only Mongiardo has declared) all put up virtually the same numbers, indicating, as with most polls we’ve been seeing in the last few months, that they’re all basically running as “generic D” right now. (Hard to believe, I know, but those creatures known as “voters” apparently aren’t in round-the-clock campaign mode like we are.)

On the one hand, these poll numbers may come as a bit of a surprise to people looking at the Kentucky senate race as one where the Democrats have a clear edge. Bunning has a few advantages here, though: one, the power of incumbency, and the name recognition and general staying-power that come with it. And two: the overall Republican strength in Kentucky, one of the few states that seems to keep on moving away from us at the presidential level, although it’s still quite amenable to statewide Dems.

On the other hand, Bunning clearly is in bad shape here, falling far short of the relative safety of the 50% mark, based on pretty wide name recognition (41 favorable/47 unfavorable), leaving him little room to go up. And that’s before he’s exposed to the rigors of a two-year campaign, which didn’t go so well last time back when he was five younger.

R2K also polls GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a young up-and-comer who would assumedly be the party’s preferred candidate. He doesn’t fare as well as Bunning, but unlike Bunning, he’s not well-known and yet liked by those who know him (39 favorable/18 unfavorable), giving him a lot more room for expansion. This is why Grayson is, by most people, considered the more dangerous GOP option.

The Oregonian is reporting that Senator Ron Wyden (D) is a candidate to be the next HHS Secretary.  I’ll discuss the rumors, who Wyden is and what this would mean for the US Senate if he were to be nominated.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Link to the story: Wyden gains traction as possible health secretary

Key Quote:

   Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden is emerging as a potential candidate to become health and human services secretary after former Sen. Tom Daschle abruptly withdrew because of controversy over unpaid taxes.

   Wyden’s name is one of several prominently mentioned in Washington, D.C., health-policy circles and in news stories and blogs. Former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber’s name also surfaced, but several Washington health care observers said they doubt he would receive serious consideration.

So who is Ron Wyden?:

Birth Date: 05/03/1949

Birthplace: Wichita, KS

Home City: Portland, OR

Religion: Jewish

Party: Democratic.

Elective History:

Representative, United States House of Representatives, District 3, 1980-1996, defeating an incumbent in the seat now held by Earl Blumenauer.

Senator, United States Senate, 1996-present, winning a special election over former Senator Gordon Smith to replace the disgraced Senator Bob Packwood (R).  He has not been challenged since.

Wyden’s Healthy Americans Plan:

Quoting from Slate: http://www.slate.com/id/2160834

Quote:

   Under Wyden’s plan, employers would no longer provide health coverage, as they have since World War II. Instead, they’d convert the current cost of coverage into additional salary for employees. Individuals would use this money to buy insurance, which they would be required to have.

   Private insurance plans would compete on features and price but would have to offer benefits at least equivalent to the Blue Cross “standard” option. Signing up for insurance would be as easy as ticking off a box on your tax return. In most cases, insurance premiums would be withheld from paychecks, as they are now.

   Eliminating employers as an additional payer would encourage consumers to use health care more efficiently. Getting rid of the employer tax deduction, which costs a whopping $200 billion a year, would free up funds to subsidize insurance up to 400 percent of the poverty line, which is $82,000 for a family of four.

   The Lewin Group, an independent consulting firm, has estimated that Wyden’s plan would reduce overall national spending on health care by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years and that it would save the government money through great administrative efficiency and competition.

Replacing Wyden:

Under Oregon law, a special election would be held to replace Wyden within 91 days (the law says “soon as practicable so it may be backed up to the May Primary”).  Here is how I think it would stack up:

Republican Possibles:

Former Senator Gordon Smith would be by far the strongest possible candidate.

Rep. Greg Walden would be a likely choice but would be quite weak.

Allen Alley, who lost in his run for treasurer, would also be possible.

Democratic Possibles:

US Rep. Earl Blumeanuer would be a very strong pick and would certainly be favored statewide.

US Rep. Peter DeFazio would also be a very strong choice for us and would likely clear the field as well.

Losing Senate candidate Steve Novick would be a strong third possibility.

Overall I think we would clearly have the edge in any special election.

Let me know what you think.

From Stateline.org:

By contrast, the Republicans have serious concerns only about Arizona, the three open seats in solidly Democratic territory (California, Hawaii and Rhode Island) plus Nevada, where first-term Gov. Jim Gibbons has gotten himself into a series of self-inflicted scrapes, and South Dakota, where a strong Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is planning an open-seat bid.

Hardly definitive, but this phrasing makes it sound pretty certain she’s going to run.

Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Rob Portman (R): 28

Lee Fisher (D): 41

Mary Taylor (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Mary Taylor (R): 26

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Rob Portman (R): 33

Mary Taylor (R): 11

(MoE: ±5.1%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18

Jennifer Brunner (D): 16

Tim Ryan (D): 14

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)… but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner’s numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as ‘generic D’ and ‘generic R’ right now, and he’d do just as well.

The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they’re catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the “don’t know” camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)

A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn’t be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)

It’s NJ, so I question the polling, as always, but. . .

While few New Jersey voters know much about him, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, a Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 44 – 38 percent in this year’s Governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This reverses a 42 – 36 percent Gov. Corzine lead in a November 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 72 – 10 percent while Christie leads 86 – 7 percent among Republicans and 49 – 24 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 – 32 percent while women go Democratic 42 – 38 percent. Black voters back Corzine 68 – 9 percent while white voters back Christie 52 – 32 percent.

As far as I can tell, Corzine hasn’t started his TV blast on broadcast yet (it would have to be on NYC and PHL networks), so I’m starting to wonder if he’s considering backing out entirely. Maybe this would be an easier race for a fresh Democrat?

So I was skimming my usual websites and this is what I found:

There’s a fairly serious scrap underway for the senate seat George Voinovich is vacating in Ohio, with Governor Ted Strickland — uncharacteristically — and other Democratic leaders pressing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner to stay in her job, and backing her rival Lee Fisher.

Link: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

As secretary of state, she has a seat on Ohio’s Apportionment Board, which both parties want to control because it redraws the boundaries for legislative districts after each full U.S. census.

But that’s not enough to keep Brunner in place.

She and others correctly argue that the power of the Apportionment Board may be overstated – as evidenced by Democrats’ success last year in House districts last drawn by Republicans. (Democrats, though, performed badly in Ohio Senate districts.)

Also, if Democrats deliver on their promise to pass election reforms, those reforms are likely to include changing the apportionment process. Computers can redraw the lines without partisan politics, eliminating the need for board seats.

A lot of us were hoping for Congressman Tim Ryan to be our senate candidate.  I think Lt. Governor Fisher was third or further down on all of our lists for Senate, whether you had Ryan, Brunner or Sutton in front of him.  Most notably because of his poor electoral track record of 1/2 for Attorney General, 0/1 for Governor, and 1/1 for Lt. Governor.  

What do you guys think?