Swing State Project

Election Data Services has updated its projections (PDF) for Congressional re-apportionment after the 2010 census, taking into account population changes over the past year. (You can find a summary of EDS’s 2007 findings here.) The news is good in particular for the state of New York.

This time, EDS offers five different models for projecting every state’s population two years hence. The column headers indicate the range of time used to come up with each projection.

As you can see, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the models. Only four states aren’t uniform across the board: California, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon. CA & OR apparently have seen a recent uptick in relative growth while FL and NC have experienced the opposite.

The bigger deal, though, are the changes compared to last year’s survey. The previous version of this study used three models rather than five, but all of them showed NY losing two seats. Now, all five EDS projections show NY losing just one seat. This might hardly seem like something to cheer about for a state which had 45 House seats just half a century ago, but I for one am glad.

So where does this seat probably come from? As it happens, it’s a state known for its sizable ex-New Yorker population. Three of the five current models (and all of them the shortest-term) show Florida dropping a seat while only one of three did in 2007. Meanwhile, Minnesota now looks pretty certain to lose a seat while South Carolina appears set to gain one.

Things could of course still change over the next two years. As EDS notes, the economic crisis has already reduced migration rates to their lowest level since the 1940s (when the government first started tracking this information). A worsening recession could cause even more people to stay put, changing these numbers yet again. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Alright, how about this: Rank the fifteen most-vulnerable Democrats in the House for the upcoming 2010 elections, in order. Have at it!

As you may know, President-elect Obama has tapped Rep. Hilda Solis to be his Secretary of Labor. Assuming she is successfully confirmed, this will lead to a special election to fill her seat. This very blue district voted 68-30 for Obama, which means that, barring an MA-05-esque debacle, this race should get decided in the primary.

I’ve been thinking for a while now that open-seat blue district primaries have been an overlooked opportunity for the netroots. These are often low-turnout affairs (particularly in special elections) where a bit of extra help can put more progressive candidates over the top. Indeed, MA-05 is a good example: The incredibly mediocre Niki Tsongas won her primary by just 5%, a mere 2,400 votes. Here’s another: In HI-02 in 2006, top-notch progressive Colleen Hanabusa lost by only 0.7%, or 844 votes.

CA-32 might offer us a similar chance to make a difference, but only if we do our due diligence. So I’m particularly glad that L.A. resident Meteor Blades has given us an in-depth look at some of the possible candidates. A few excerpts follow, though I encourage everyone to read the full piece:

At the head of the list for the seat are two long-time politicians, Gil Cedillo and Gloria Romero.

Born of immigrant parents, Cedillo grew up in gritty Boyle Heights on the eastern edge of Los Angeles proper. His father was a member of the United Steel Workers and his mother was a garment-maker. After law school, Cedillo worked for the Service Employees International Union and was SEIU’s general manager from 1990 to 1996, then was elected to the state Assembly, then to the state Senate, where he’ll be termed out in 2010. He chairs the legislative Latino Caucus. Although he is progressive by any measure, his actual policy achievements are quite modest. …

The other candidate with a reasonable chance of winning is Gloria Romero, who replaced Solis in the state Senate and is now Senate Majority Leader. Like Cedillo, she was born Barstow, Calif. Before being elected to the state Assembly in 1998, Romero was an adjunct psychology professor at state universities. She’s widely recognized as an expert on prisons and education. And she’s a close friend of [Los Angeles Mayor Antonio] Villaraigosa. …

Other possible candidates are the Calderon brothers, Charles and Ron, both on the conservative side of the Democratic Party. Charles was in the Assembly in the ’80s and got involved in a losing power struggle there together with other conservative Dems out to oust renowned Assembly Speaker Willie Brown. He was elected to the Senate in 1990 and termed out in ’98, the same year he lost the primary race for A.G. He’s been back in the Assembly since 2006, one of the few people to go from the Senate to the Assembly. (His previous terms in the Assembly were before the term limits law.) Brother Ron served in the Assembly for two terms and has been in the Senate since 2006. Neither has much chance of emerging victorious in the special election.

One probable candidate, Ed Hernandez, is a one-term Assemblyman whose chances come in around absolute zero.

Possible candidates Judy Chu, chairwoman of the State Board of Equalization (the state tax authority), and Mike Eng, her husband, an Assemblyman who replaced her when she was termed out, fall politically somewhere between the Calderons and the more liberal Latinos in the race. But neither Chu nor Eng stands much of a chance, even though Chu has a long history in politics, having started at the school board level.

The front-runners may not be the most inspiring of choices, but in a special election, lots of things are possible – such as two well-established candidates bashing each other so hard that a third option emerges victorious. With NY-26 fresh in our memories, this is something I won’t rule out.

Anyhow, who would you like to see run here?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 31

Sarah Palin (R): 55

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±5%)

As Markos reminds us, the polling in Alaska this past cycle (including Research 2000’s) was abysmal, so we need to view these numbers with appropriate skepticism. Nonetheless, this is a matchup I’d want to see almost no matter what. There’s nothing like a top-dollar GOP food fight to warm my heart.

R2K also tested a bunch of other gov & sen matchups, but we’re hamstrung by the lack of Dem candidates with any real name recognition. It’s hard to feel too optimistic for the Alaska Division of Team Blue at this early juncture. But who knows? Maybe an ultra-nasty Republican primary battle could jar this seat loose for us.

So Caroline Kennedy (or rather her spokesperson) sent over written answers today to some 15 questions posed by the eb. It’s the first time we’re getting a real feel of her specific political views. The answers are IMO overall mixed leaning positive.

Here are some that stand out:

Q. Does she support state or federal legislation that would legalize same-sex marriage?

A. Caroline supports full equality and marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples.

EXCELLENT. So she starts off to the left of most of the Dem caucus on this one.

Q. Has the North American Free Trade Agreement worked?

A. Caroline believes that Nafta has had unintended, negative consequences in some regions of New York, and that is why she agrees with President-elect Obama that we need to take a careful look at the agreement and pay particular attention to its impact on jobs and wages in American manufacturing communities. She also believes that we must ensure that American communities and workers benefit as we craft new trade agreements.

Eh. She could have made her opposition to NAFTA stronger but ‘protectionist’ is now seen as a dirty word even in Dem circles.

Q. Do you support any federal or state restrictions on gun ownership? If so, which ones?

A. Caroline Kennedy is a strong supporter of gun control. She supports New York City’s and New York State’s gun control laws. On the federal level, she support the Brady Law, and other measures to keep guns out of the hands of minors and criminals.

Oh yes, I’m sure this will endear her to upstaters she so desperately wants to win over. throws up

Q. Do you believe that an undivided Jerusalem must be the national capital of the State of Israel?

A. Yes, Caroline believes that an undivided Jerusalem must be the national capital of the State of Israel.

Pander pander.

Q. Do you support the federal Employee Free Choice Act, otherwise known as the “card-check” bill?

A. Yes, Caroline supports the federal Employee Free Choice Act.

Ah finally! Something good.

Rest of the questions at the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12…

Support for mayoral authority of public schools is probably a consequence of being besties with Bloomberg. She also gives a big fat no to vouchers for private schools. Take that Lieberman!

Al Franken has taken the lead late in the process. The AP has reported it: http://www.google.com/hostedne… . The remaining challenges are mostly Franken’s so his lead is likely to grow from the 250 votes it is know, (according to dailykos.com), and even from the 2 votes it is according to the AP. There will probably be another recount, some more scrutiny about the rejected absentee ballots that Coleman tried to block and which will probably be reviewed. But, it at the end of it Franken holds a 100 + vote lead he should be seated, regardless of what Larry Sabato says about NH-Sen in 1974. After that much due process that election would be certified and scrutinized, proved beyond a doubt, and Democracy does not become invalid if the margin of victory is small.

P.S. Please vote in the poll, I use it as a counter to see how many people read a given post.  

Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

If you haven’t done so already, check out californianintexas‘ great roundup of Pres-by-CD results for a good number of California districts.

This is pretty interesting: Public Policy Polling takes a look at two potential Senate appointees, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and 3rd CD Rep. John Salazar, and finds that Hickenlooper would start in a stronger position against two potential GOP foes (12/16-17, registered voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 54

Bill Owens (R): 40

John Hickenlooper (D): 54

Tom Tancredo (R): 37

John Salazar (D): 52

Bill Owens (R): 43

John Salazar (D): 53

Tom Tancredo (R): 40

(MoE: ±3.7%)

In other state news, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter just named ex-state Rep. Bernie Buescher as the state’s new SoS, meaning that outgoing state House speaker Andrew Romanoff’s is still on the table for the Senate job. Also possibly in the mix: former state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, who has contacted Ritter recently to express her interest in the appointment.