Swing State Project

Rasmussen (10/27, likely voters, 9/30 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (47)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 54 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Ugly, ugly numbers. Wicker takes 12% of the black vote, and a whopping 78% of the white vote (compared to 18% for Ronnie). Musgrove can’t win unless he takes 25% of the white vote, and that goal is looking like it’s slipping away.

Another recent poll has similar news:

USA Polling Group for the Mobile Press Register/University of South Alabama (10/13-23, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 32

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±5%)

Rasmussen has been prone to putting out weirdly-gyrating polls in the past, and I’m completely unfamiliar with the USA Polling Group and its track record, but taken together, it’s hard to feel sanguine about this race.

Public Policy Polling (10/25-27, likely voters, 8/25-27):

Larry Kissell (D): 51 (39)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 46 (44)

Thomas Hill (L): n/a (4)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

This marks the first time that Kissell has been ahead in a PPP poll (and check out the ridiculously low MoE — PPP hit up over 1,500 respondents for this one). It’s really starting to look like he’ll actually pull this off, despite lackluster fundraising and poor campaign budgeting. I suppose that’s the difference that $1.8 million from the DCCC makes.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McBain by 51-46 in this district, while Hagan leads Dole by 51-42, and Perdue leads McCrory by 47-46.

In a new Poll released today by Public Policy Polling Larry Kissell is ahead of Robin Hayes!

This is significant not because its the first poll to show Larry ahead, but because it is the first by PPP, and one of the first truly independent of the both the campaign and the DCCC!

This is a huge poll(PDF), with a massive sample.

Kissell (D) 51

Hayes (R-inc) 46

moe +/- 2.5%

1589 voters, taken between October 25th and October 27th, therefore with a margin of error of 2.5%

Larry leads by 5, 51 to 46!  Thats right, Larry is OUTSIDE the margin of error.

For our other candidates in the area, Obama is up 6 right now in a district that Bush won by 8.  Hagan Leads by 9 and Perdue leads by 1 within the district.  Considering how much of this district is in the Charlotte media market that is not a bad result for Perdue.

33% of the sample has already early voted and amongst those people are margins are even better.

Amongst early voters Obama leads 61 to 37, Perdue leads 56 to 42, Kay leads 61 to 36 and Larry Kissell leads 60 to 39!

This is down to the final days.  Can you help put Larry over the top?

Please remember, this isnt just about a Democrat, this is about a better Democrat.  A progressive from a rural Southern District.  A mill worker against a Mill Owner.  And someone who posts on DailyKos and BlueNC versus someone who said that Liberals Hate people who work hard.

There’s nothing like a scary public poll to get the internals flowing.

The Mellman Group for Jim Marshall (10/18-20, likely voters):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 48

Rick Goddard (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’d like to believe this one, but let’s not forget that Mellman is the same pollster who said that Marshall was leading by 16 points right around this time in 2006 — and Marshall barely survived that race.

A copy of the poll’s press release is available below the fold.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Perdue 47%

McCrory 44%

Munger 5%

undecided 4%

Bev Perdue leads the latest PPP poll for the 4th straight week.

The 5% Munger voters are also breaking for Obama 54-23.

In the other statewide races included in this poll:

Sec of State

Marshall (D-Inc) 48

Sawyer (R) 39

13% undecided

Auditor

Wood (D) 44

Merritt (R-Inc) 41

15% undecided

Sec of Agriculture

Aisley (D) 41

Troxler (R-Inc) 46

13% undecided

Yesterday’s grim Zogby poll showed Lampson down by 17 points. A new poll released late yesterday evening confirms the campaign’s dismissal of the Zogby stats. Though this has been briefly touched upon on the front page, I wanted to share some hard data, as this is a very important potential gain / loss.

The numbers, as polled by Benenson Strategy Group:

        July 08 – Early Oct 08 – Mid Oct 08

Lampson (D-inc): 37 – 41 – 42

Olsen (R): 45 – 42 – 42

Undec: 12 – 13 – 13

The race is now tied at 42%. That’s NOT a good number for an incumbent, but let’s keep this in perspective. TX-22 is a Republican district hand-drawn by Tom DeLay…

The poll also discusses turnout:

Early vote revealed several positive trends that favor Lampson’s re-election. Democratic turnout is beating Republican turnout across all four counties in the district by 9,103 votes or 10 percent. With 23,776 unknown (many of which are new voters) it is safe to assume that Lampson is receiving the lion’s share of those votes; especially among independents who Olson has written off.

It also shows that every county in his district is exceeding projected turnout by at 10-20%.

Good news for Nick. This race is extremely close, and with 13% undec., it’s really up to the campaign now.

From the Politico:

Hoping to maximize congressional gains,  the DNC is taking out a $10 million line of credit to split equally between the House and Senate campaign committees, according to a top Democrat familiar with the move.

The decision to go into the red for the DCCC and DSCC comes as party operatives see more races coming into play, especially in the House. The goal: To take advantage of what is shaping up to be a Democratic wave by picking up as many seats as possible, giving the party a massive governing majority and making it more difficult for the GOP to recapture power in future cycles.

So where will this money be felt? We didn’t see any major expenditures filed yesterday with the FEC by the D-trip, but I expect tonight will be a lot busier.

Research 2000 for the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel (10/16-18, likely voters):

Mike Montagano (D): 40

Mark Souder (R-inc): 45

Bill Larsen (L): 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Hot diggity dog, those are some exciting numbers, and they closely mirror a Montagano internal showing Souder ahead by 44-39.

The same poll has McCain ahead of Obama by 53-38. In an accompanying article about this poll, the News-Sentinel spun that result as bad news for Obama. But when you consider that Bush won this district by a 68-31 margin in 2004, that’s an incredibly good result.

Both the DCCC and NRCC are spending heavily to pull this one over the finish line, which is pretty remarkable for an R+16 district. This will be one of the earlier reporting districts on election night, so if Montagano can pull out a win, it’s going to be a big night. And even if he loses but comes close, that still won’t bode well for the GOP.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

UPDATE: Turns out there’s an even more recent poll of this district, by Howey/Gauge (10/23-24, likely voters):

Mike Montagano (D): 44

Mark Souder (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

That MoE is a bit wide, but Souder can’t be comfortable at all with numbers like these.

Rick Goddard is a retired general running as a Republican against Democrat Jim Marshall in GA-08.  Bill Gillespie is a retired Lt. Col. running as a Democrat against Republican Jack Kingston in GA-01. The Republican party is pouring cash into the GA-08 race, and Marshall is having to fight for political survival. In GA-01 the national Democratic party has done nothing, zip, nada. If you realize Jack Kingston is chief propagandist for the Rpublican party, you might think kicking Kingston out would be as important as keeping Marshall in.

Georgia news media are finally catching on to five military veterans are running for Congress as Democrats this year. This is old news to bloggers (dailykos, like getting the newspaper six months in advance!). Here’s somebody finally connecting the dots:

In Georgia, at least four of the 2008 “Band of Brothers” (Bobby Saxon, Bill Gillespie, Bill Jones, and Doug Heckman) are running uphill battles against Republican incumbents (Broun, Kingston, Price and Linder, respectively).  If any one of them (especially Saxon) received the type of national party support that the GOP is giving to veteran Rick Goddard to oust Democratic Party Congressman Jim Marshall, these districts could become competitive.

Add to this the five to one ratio of retired military officers running as Democrats rather than Republicans, and think about what that means about political sentiment among the military and military families and towns with military bases, of which there are four major ones in GA-01. Add to that the massive Obama GOTV, especially in GA-01. Bill Gillespie polled more votes in his primary than Kingston did in his. Bill has twice debated Kingston and fought him to a draw. Gillespie is on the air with his TV ads, and Bill Gillespie can beat Jack Kingston.

There’s still time, DCCC, swingstate project, openleft, dailykos! If RCCC can do it for Rick Goddard, you can do it for Bill Gillespie.