Swing State Project

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 41

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)

Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.

If Republicans thought they dodged a bullet when Jon Powers lost the Democratic primary for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds, they just received a reality check. The DCCC has just hit the airwaves with this ad:

Here’s the full script:

NAFTA has already cost New York over 50,000 jobs. But Congressional candidate Chris Lee chose to employ labor in China. Work that could’ve been done right here. Lee tried to hide the facts, removing all mention of his company employing workers in China from his campaign website, hoping you wouldn’t learn the truth. Chris Lee: a record of employing labor in China we can’t afford. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups.  Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.  

3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.

4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Gordon Smith the Elitist:

According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.

Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:

If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.

But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.

Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.

Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).

One Expensive Movie Ticket

Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket

Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak.  However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event.  There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.

Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:

Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault

A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver.  At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful.  Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.”  It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.

Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:

In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state.  Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members.  For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans.  Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.

Let me know what you think.

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters, 8/13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 47 (46)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48 (49)

Dean Barkley (I): 3 (-)

(MoE: ±4%)

Coleman leads by a single point, which is not out of line with other recent polls showing Franken getting his groove back. What is out of line is Rasmussen pegging Dean Barkley at 3% of the vote. The last three polls of this race had Barkley gobbling up anywhere between 8-14% of the vote. While I don’t think that he’s going to take an exceptionally large share of the vote, I have to believe that in an exceptionally nasty race, he’s going to attract more than 3% in November.

Still, it’s good news for Franken, who has been on the receiving end of a series of attack ads recently that portray him as a mentally unhinged rageaholic. Perhaps the voters of Minnesota aren’t entirely turned off by someone who is steamed with the last eight years.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 52-44 in the state.

Rasmussen (9/17, likely voters, 7/17 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 51 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (54)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Hagan and the DSCC are cutting through Dole’s numbers like a hot knife through butter. Dole’s favorables have plunged from 61-34 in July to 50-44 this month.

These numbers are roughly in line with a recent PPP poll which showed Hagan leading by five points. Great news, all around.

Bonus finding: Rasmussen also finds that McCain leads Obama by 50-47 in the state. Hoo-ah!

(H/T: LanceS)

In July I wrote about five reasons to get involved in state legislative races. My reasoning was:

 1.  The 2010 census looms, to be followed by redrawing Congressional districts in most states.

  2. Many policy matters are determined at the state level.

  3. Getting progressive Democrats elected to state legislatures will build our bench for future House, Senate or gubernatorial races.

  4. You probably can find a competitive statehouse race near you, no matter where you live.

  5. Your individual actions are more likely to make a difference in a statehouse race.

In addition to donating directly to good state legislators and legislative candidates in Iowa, I give to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports statehouse candidates across the country.

I was pleased to learn on Friday that the DLCC is accepting nominations for candidates to be included in its “40 essential races” program.

More below the fold.

Dear [firstname]:

It is no easy task to pinpoint a handful of essential candidates among the thousands of competitive legislative races this year, but that is exactly is what we at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee intend to do over the next three weeks.

Using the information and resources we’ve gathered so far this cycle, we will identify 40 candidates in top races all across the country who need help in this election. For our part, we will provide these candidates with strategic support and promote their races among our partners and allies.

We also know that there are plenty of strong Democrats throughout the country with the potential to win important districts whose races are just emerging — so we are asking for your help to find them.

While we reveal the list of our targets, we will also accept nominations for an additional 10 candidates to go on our essential races list. Please submit a name:

http://www.dlcc.org/action/200…

And while you’re on our site, will you also take a minute to make a contribution of $25 or more?

Every dollar that you give will go directly into taking the fight to the Republicans who want to control our state houses. With your help, we will elect leaders who won’t let the GOP pass their radical policy agendas or redraw districts to create a permanent conservative majority. Can you support us today?

http://www.dlcc.org/action/con…

The DLCC is committed to electing Democratic majorities all across the country, but in order to win in competitive states, we need support from friends like you.

Thank you for all that you do,

Michael Sargeant

Executive Director

Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

I asked someone at the DLCC whether these “essential races” will mostly feature challengers or incumbents. I was told that most of the targeted races involve Democratic challengers trying to take Republican-held seats. However, some will be incumbents, and some will be challengers trying to hold Democratic seats.

I encourage progressives to get informed about the key races in your state, then go to the DLCC site and nominate the candidate of your choice for this program.

For example, strong Democratic challengers seeking Republican-held seats in Iowa include Jerry Sullivan in Iowa House district 59 and Swati Dandekar in Senate district 18 (both seats are open because of Republican retirements).

A good candidate trying to hold the open Iowa House district 29 is Nate Willems, a former regional director for Howard Dean and occasional contributor to MyDD.

Incumbents being targeted this year in Iowa include Eric Palmer in House district 75, Elesha Gayman in House district 84,  and Tom Rielly in Senate district 38.

Please let the good candidates in your state or region know about the DLCC program.

You can also set up your own ActBlue page to raise money for your favorite candidates, whether or not they are named an “essential race” by the DLCC. Century of the Common Iowan blogger noneed4thneed created this page to support Tim Hoy in House district 44, Sharon Steckman in House district 13, Gayman, Palmer, and Sullivan.

Vox Populi provides information about three good Indiana House candidates on this ActBlue page.

Remember, even if your state is not competitive in the presidential campaign and your representatives in Congress are safe incumbents, you can probably find a swing statehouse district not far from where you live.

We can’t afford to neglect those down-ticket races. Donate, volunteer, and spread the word.

A summary of House race independent expenditures made in the past seven days:

The DCCC continues to have the field to itself — with the notable exception of the National Association of Realtors, which is throwing down some serious cash to protect GOP Reps. Chris Shays and Joe Knollenberg. I suppose it’s sort of unsurprising that the Realtors are against Jim Himes — after all, Himes has spent the past several years working for an affordable housing nonprofit.

For more details on these expenditures, please check our Independent Expenditure Tracker.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dennis Shulman (D): 34

Scott Garrett (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the first public poll of the race in New Jersey’s fifth congressional district, where Rabbi Dennis Shulman is taking on retrograde wingnut Rep. Scott Garrett. There are a number of things worth pointing out about these results.

On the positive side, Garrett is below the fifty percent mark, which is always troubling for an incumbent. At the same time, his favorables stand at a weak 44-38 – almost as many people dislike him as like him. On the flipside, Rabbi Shulman’s favorables stand at 36-26, which means that nearly 40% of likely voters don’t yet know who he is. In other words, he has room to grow.

It’s exactly that growing room which gives Shulman the chance to make up the fifteen-point gap that R2K says he faces. Shulman’s doing pretty well among Dems, winning them at a 72-11 rate, while Garrett is doing ten points better among members of his own party, taking Republicans by 77-6. The real issue, though, is independents. Garrett cleans up here 48-35. The good news for Shulman is that this group is the least familiar with him: fully 45% of indies say they have no opinion of the Democrat – an opportunity, if Shulman can get his name out there.

Those independents are the real X-factor in this poll. They make up a huge 54% of the sample, while Republicans clock in at 27% and Dems at 19%. This is actually pretty close to where registration stood in the district before Super Tuesday. However, Dem registration has shot up since then; I’m told that more recent figures indicate the district’s makeup is more like 44I-32R-24D today. But knowing registration numbers is one thing – figuring out who will show up on election day is quite another.

And in that regard, NJ-05 is a bit of an electoral engima. The district voted for Bush in 2004 by what looks like a daunting 57-43 margin. In 2000, however, the margin was half as wide, just 52-45. Why the seven-point shift, when Bush only gained about three nationwide? Most analysts I’ve discussed this with believe there was something of a “9/11 effect” here, just as there was in many parts of the tri-state area.

If this assessment is accurate, then this right-ward shift may have been temporary. One possible piece of support for this thesis is the presidential head-to-head, which shows McCain leading Obama 52-37. Obama trails past Dem performance quite significantly, but McCain is at Bush 2000 – and not Bush ’04 – levels, for the moment. In a red district, though, undecideds are more likely to drift Republican, so McCain’s current 52% may not be his ceiling.

One final thought: Neither candidate in the fifth CD (which is covered by the ultra-expensive NYC media market) has gone up on the air yet, so there is plenty of potential for this race to move.

The Feldman Group for Jim Himes (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Jim Himes (D): 45 (39)

Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45 (51)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Himes has been hammering Chris Shays in recent weeks over financial issues and his boneheaded insistence that “our economy is fundamentally strong”, and it looks like his strategy has been paying off. Only 36% of voters say that Shays deserves re-election, while 46% say that it’s time for someone new. That’s bad news for Shays.

Also ominous for the Shayster is Obama’s popularity in the district: he crushes McCain by a 56-33 margin.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.