Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)

Christopher Cole (L): 6 (6)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hoo-ah! Those are some damn good numbers for Kay Hagan. What’s driving her success? Well, you could say: It’s the economy, stupid.

58% of voters name the “Economy and Jobs” as their most important issue this year, and incumbency is poison to them: Hagan leads by 57-30 among this group. Tom Jensen has more:

She’s also doing well with North Carolina’s fastest growing group of voters: suburbanites. They now represent a plurality of the state’s voters, and Hagan is the most popular with them of any of the candidates for President, Governor, and Senate. She leads 53-36 with that emerging power broker.

Also contributing to Hagan’s strength is her steady improvement among African-American voters (a group that Dole performed well with in 2002… for a Republican); Hagan now leads by 79-11 among these voters. That’s up from 52-28 in July.

I like this race more and more everyday.

SSP currently rates NC-Sen as a Tossup.

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

Both the Democratic House and Senate committees have been spending furiously. The NRSC continues to rally, but they’ve basically ceded a two-month head start to the DSCC in some races.

Boccieri Breaking News:

John is Just 15 Votes from the Final Round – Vote Now!

From the Akron Beacon Journal:

VP candidate draws 2,500 in Canton

“…Gov. Ted Strickland and state Sen. John Boccieri, the Democratic candidate for the Canton-based 16th Congressional District, introduced Biden to the Canton crowd, with the three of them locking hands in a victory pose. Strickland called Boccieri one of his ”closest personal friends.”

Boccieri, D-Alliance, told the audience: ”It is time we elect change. That is why we need Barack Obama and Joe Biden. ”

Boccieri said Biden is from a middle-class family and is a ”tough, smart and realistic leader.”

Read the full article…

There’s more…

John only needs 15 more votes by midnight on Saturday to advance to the final round in 21st Century Democrats online contest!

If you haven’t voted, please vote now. If you have, please urge all your friends to vote, too.

Again, the winners of this contest will receive an additional staff member for their campaigns. That extra organizer could lead to dozens of extra volunteers, thousands more phone calls and door-knocks, and a winning margin of votes on Election Day.

The deadline for Round 1 voting is midnight on Saturday. Please vote ASAP!

Thanks for Your Support,

Team Boccieri

SurveyUSA (9/17-18, likely voters, 7/30-31 in parens):

Kay Barnes (D): 42 (44)

Sam Graves (R-inc): 51 (48)

Dave Browning (L): 4 (-)

Undecided: 4 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

Graves is back on top with a decent lead over former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Interestingly, this poll offers a bit of a course correction in its sample of young voters; in July, SUSA showed Graves with a monster 52-37 lead among 18-34 year-olds (a recurring issue in many SUSA polls we’ve seen this year), but now finds Barnes ahead in that age bracket by 47-40. However, the new poll also finds Barnes backsliding among 35-64 year-olds.

There’s no question that Graves is a gay-baiting (and I’d even say race-baiting, based on this ad) neanderthal who deserves to lose, but he’s already smacking his chops over his next hit on Barnes: she was a (gasp!) sexuality consultant in the 1970s!

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters):

Walt Minnick (D): 35

Bill Sali (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±5%)

Sali is under 50%, so he’s definitely in the danger zone, but this will be an uphill race for Walt Minnick. Most troubling is Minnick’s favorability rating: 41-40. Those are some inexplicably high negatives for a challenger in a race that hasn’t really heated up yet. Neither Sali nor the NRCC have gone up with negative ads against Minnick, while Minnick has been airing positive bio ads for quite some time. I’m at a loss to explain why nearly as many people view him unfavorably as they do favorably.

Up the ticket, McCain is beating Obama by a 59-32 margin, not an especially dramatic improvement for Team Blue over Kerry’s 69-30 loss here in 2004.

UPDATE: The Minnick campaign releases a statement about this poll to SSP (via email):

Our internal polling has been consistently and dramatically different from the numbers released today. We are confident going forward to Election Day.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: The Great Orange Satan also polled the state’s Senate race (9/16-17, likely voters, 7/28-30 in parens):

Larry LaRocco (D): 33 (32)

Jim Risch (R): 56 (42)

Rex Rammell (I): 3 (5)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 5 (17)

(MoE: ±4%)

The undecideds have come off the fence — and they’ve landed on exactly the side you’d expect in this crimson red state. Tough breaks, but it’s Idaho.

What’s going on in the races that you care most about?

In the diaries, IndianaProgressive has an important reminder.

there’s not much to this diary, just that the democratic congressman from vermont,peter welch, also won the republican nomination as a write-in.  this is a ha-ha moment aimed at vt repubs and repubs in general.  ha ha!

http://www.timesargus.com/apps…

The law has spoken:

A State Supreme Court justice Thursday rejected congressional candidate Jack Davis’ attempt to remain on the November ballot, ending his third attempt to win the job. […]

Justice Richard M. Platkin of Albany disagreed with Davis’ contention that his petition to form a minor party line called Save Jobs and Farms should have been accepted even though he failed to file a certificate of acceptance on time, as required by state election law.

Davis argued that the state Board of Elections should have provided him an opportunity to submit the late application anyway and that the board acted “arbitrarily and capriciously” in not allowing him to file.

The judge ruled otherwise.

“The court concludes that this case is governed by myriad authorities holding that the failure to timely file a certificate of acceptance is a fatal defect that cannot be cured or excused,” Platkin wrote.

Davis left a voicemail with Democrat Alice Kryzan yesterday to congratulate her on her primary win, but would not commit to helping her campaign — because he doesn’t think that she “understands” his anti-trade message.

Also non-committal is Jon Powers, who has yet to either endorse Kryzan or confirm whether or not he’ll be actively campaigning as the Working Families Party candidate. This is getting pretty lame.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Boccieri Vows to Tackle Pension Problems

After meeting on Thursday with local retirees from Republic Technologies International (RTI) who have been battling for years to secure the pensions they were promised, State Sen. John Boccieri affirmed his commitment to fight for a resolution to their struggle as a member of the U.S. Congress.

Boccieri also promised to attend a major public meeting about these pension problems on Saturday, October 11. Other elected officials, candidates, and members of the press have also been invited.

State Senator John Boccieri said:

“It’s criminal that you would work your whole life, pay into a pension plan, and then get almost nothing because bad trade policies or irresponsible executives bankrupt your company. This issue requires a strong and loud voice in Congress to ensure that laws protecting pensions are enforced and are strengthened to protect workers.”

For years, thousands of local workers and retirees from RTI have been struggling with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), the government agency that takes over a company’s pension plan if it declares bankruptcy to ensure that employees still receive pension benefits.

Despite this intent, many workers see their pensions dramatically reduced when the PBGC takes over from a bankrupt company, due to funding problems and complex laws governing how the agency makes payments.

In the case of RTI, the situation was made worse by extended legal battles over the amounts owed by the PBGC to affected workers, which have now resulted in the agency demanding that retirees pay back pension “overpayments” as large as $60- or $70,000.

Individuals at Thursday’s meetings also expressed frustrations with the PBGC’s lack of responsiveness and consistency in addressing their concerns. “You ask the same question three times and get three different answers,” one retiree said. Others said that PBGC had miscalculated benefits, confused the benefits owed by RTI and previous companies operating the same facilities, and awarded, reduced or revoked benefits arbitrarily.(emphasis added)

Boccieri’s initial proposals to address these concerns include:

Working directly with the PBGC, as well as with Senator Sherrod Brown, the Steelworkers Union, and others who have taken the lead on these issues, to push for swift, fair solutions;

Creating a “Pension Protection Caucus” in Congress that would bring together legislators from all of the districts and states affected by these pension problems to seek resolutions;

Increasing enforcement of pension protection laws to ensure that both corporations and the PBGC are honoring their obligations to workers;

Passing legislative improvements to current law, such as measures to give workers’ pensions fairer treatment in bankruptcy proceedings and prevent retirees from having to repay PBGC when it takes years to recalculate pension payments;

Improving the responsiveness and transparency of the PBGC in its dealings with pension recipients;

Ensuring that improvements in enforcement and legislation are retroactive in order to address the plight of RTI employees.

Once again, Senator Major John Boccieri is first on the issues that most affect the voters of Ohio’s 16th Congressional District!