Swing State Project

Inspired by skywaker9’s diary on this year’s races in Oregon ( http://www.swingstateproject.c… ), I decided to create one for California, breaking up my analysis into 3 parts since there is so much to cover in my big, beautiful state. This is Part 1 of my series, which will cover the statewide races, which for California are only the presidential race and the ballot measures, since our statewide officeholders, Boxer, and Feinstein are not up this year. The other two diaries will be on the Congressional and State Legislature races; Part 2 Northern/Central California and Part 3 Southern California.

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Here is the most recent registration data: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/ro…

Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/el…

Statewide Layout

Democrats: 7,053,860 (43.75%)

Republicans: 5,244,394 (32.53%)

Decline to State: 3,128,684 (19.40%)

Others: 696,849 (4.32%)

Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic

R: Republican

L: Libertarian

G: Green

AI: American Independent

PF: Peace and Freedom

I: Independent

Race Ratings

Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%

Lean: Margin by 5-10%

Likely: Margin by 10-15%

Strong: Margin by 15-20%

Solid: Margin by more than 20%

U.S. President: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Bob Barr (L), Alan Keyes (AI), Cynthia McKinney (G), and Ralph Nader (PF)

Profile: Obama’s win of our whopping 55 electoral votes is a foregone conclusion; no matter how many times McSame says he can compete here.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Obama

Ballot Measures: A whopping 12 measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here: http://www.smartvoter.org/2008… Field has released polls on 1A, 2, 4, 7, and 11. http://www.field.com/fieldpoll…

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Rail): This measure would issue $9.95 billion of general obligation bonds for a $40 billion high speed train, connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles, under supervision of the California High-Speed Rail Authority. The train would run from San Francisco to Los Angeles. So far, this measure is passing 56-30, and I strongly urge my fellow Californians to vote for this measure! You can find more information on 1A at California High Speed Rail Blog: http://cahsr.blogspot.com/

9/17/2008 Outlook: Likely/Strong Pass

Prop. 2 (Regulations on Animal Confinement): This measure would prohibit the confinement of farm animals that basically does not allow them to be comfortable, imposing a misdemeanor penalty and fine or imprisonment for violators, and bans cages for egg-laying poultry, gestation crates for sows and veal crates for veal calves. This measure is also passing by an overwhelming margin.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 3 (Children’s Hospital Bond): This bond issue would authorize $980 million for improvements on children’s hospitals. A similar measure, Prop 61, passed 58-42 in 2004, so for now I can say that 3 will pass also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 4 (Waiting Period and Parental Notification): Those anti-choice folks just never give up, and are hoping that the third time will be a charm. Like its predecessors 73 and 85, this one would prohibit abortion for minors until 48 hours after physician notification, only this one mentions an alternative adult family member in the case of reported parental abuse. Still, the addition of that change does not change my staunch opposition to this at all. Right now, though, this measure is passing 48-39%. I can only hope those affirmative numbers go down.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 5 (Nonviolent Drug Offenses): This measure would allocate $460 million annually for expansion and improvement of treatment programs for nonviolent drug offenders, limiting court authority to incarcerate offenders who commit certain drug crimes or break treatment rules or parole. So far no polls have been released, so I can’t make an accurate prediction as to how this measure will fare.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 6 (Law Enforcement Funding and Criminal Law Revisions): This measure requires about $700 million of funding for police and local law enforcement, and makes 30 revisions to California criminal law. The funding would come from education, health care, and the environment, just to name a few. The last thing we need is money being diverted from services that keep people out of becoming criminals, so I am saying no to this measure. No polls on this have been released yet, though I hope concerns over the budget will send this to the ballot measure graveyard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 7 (Renewable Energy Generation): This measure would require government-owned utilities to generate 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010, upping that requirement for all utilities to 40% by 2020 and 50% by 2025. However, from an L.A. Times editorial ( http://www.latimes.com/news/op… ) this bill has many drawbacks, including new regulatory powers which could lead to confusion, requiring a 2/3 vote of the legislature to remove, and the excluding of small renewable power-producing plants, which are actually leading the way in our transition to solar power. So I hope the affirmative numbers there go down fast and hard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Pass

Prop. 8 (Elimination of Same-Sex Marriage Rights): Basically, this measure is what it says; it eliminates the right of same-sex couples to marry. Marriages between same-sex couples would be neither valid nor recognized by the state. After our hard-fought victory in the Supreme Court, we want to make sure that same-sex couples have the same legal rights as everyone else. So far, it looks like that they will still be able to have their marriage rights, though the margins are too close for comfort. We still have to fight to protect them. So vote NO ON 8!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 9 (Victims’ Rights and Protection): This would amend the California Constitution to guarantee notification for crime victims, allowing victims’ input in the criminal justice process, including bail, pleas, sentencing, and parole; taking victim safety into consideration for bail or parole which, except for guaranteed notification, is already in place. In addition, judges and the state lawmakers would have less power in awarding restitution, releasing inmates early, and granting inmates the ability to earn parole. No polls have been released on this yet, though I hope it goes down also!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 10 (Renewable Energy): This measure would authorize $5 billion in bonds to assist in buying fuel efficient/alternative fuel vehicles (though only the natural gas-fueled Honda Civic qualifies) and for research in renewable energy and alternative fuel vehicles. I am for alternative energy, but not to give more money to the biggest donor to the Swift Boat Liars, T. Boone Pickens. Basically, this is his plan to control a nationwide natural gas monopoly, giving bigger tax incentives to people that purchase natural gas vehicles (though there is already a federal subsidy for them), than people that purchase hybrid vehicles, though the latter is more efficient. So I hope this proposition goes down also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

Prop. 11 (Redistricting): This would amend the constitution to shift authority of shaping district borders from the state legislature to a commission made of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 others, which is out of balance with the registration numbers, as you can see above. California voters have a history of rejecting redistricting ballot measures, and I do think this one will also, though by a small margin. So far, this measure is passing, though by just a plurality. Ballot measures’ affirmative numbers tend to go down over time, and California voters have a long history of rejecting redistricting measures, having rejected 9 so far including Prop 77 in 2005, which went down in a nearly 60-40 landslide.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 12 (Veterans’ Bond): This would authorize $900 million in bonds for veterans’ assistance in purchasing farms and homes. No polls on this measure have been released yet.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

What next? In New York’s 13th Congressional District, there’s always something next.

Here’s the first curveball: Just days after word leaked out that disgraced GOP Rep. Vito Fossella was exploring a comeback attempt this fall, Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio is dropping out and seeking a judicial nomination:

Brooklyn Conservative chairman Jerry Kassar has told the Advance that congressional candidate Paul Atanasio, who is bailing out of the campaign, will have his name put into nomination for a Brooklyn state Supreme Court judgeship at the party’s judicial nominating convention tonight.

If Atanasio’s nomination is approved, which looks to be a formality, the coveted Conservative line in the race would officially become vacant, with the party’s state executive committee set to make a new endorsement next week.

Could this be the opening that Vito needs in order to get himself back on the ballot? It’s there for the taking, if the Conservative “bigwigs” want to play that game of tiddly winks. Whatever the case, they will most certainly not endorse Republican Bob Straniere:

The Brooklyn party organization has already rejected Democratic candidate Michael McMahon, and Kassar today said, “I don’t see any interest among my members in recommending to the state party that we endorse [GOP candidate] Bob Straniere.”

“That would do nothing for us,” said Kassar. “He hasn’t really put together much of a campaign despite winning the Republican primary.”

And just when things couldn’t get nuttier, defeated GOP primary candidate Jamshad “Jim” Wyne is running as a write-in candidate.

(Tip o’ the cap: NY-13 Blog)

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There’s been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his ‘nice guy’ image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).

Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.

We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to “Tossup.”

The NRCC is so confident in its candidate for the open seat in Arizona’s First District, friend-of-Alan-Keyes and all-around nutjob Sydney Hay, that it has decided to let her win the campaign on her own.

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the group believes Sydney Hay is a strong candidate who could win the seat without the committee’s financial backing.

“We don’t need to spend resources on all of these races, and simply because some are strong enough to sustain a victory without our financial assistance,” Hanretty said. “And we’re certainly hoping that’s the case in that district.”

This is the same Sydney Hay who was low on the party’s wish list of candidates after stronger candidates took a pass, who barely won her primary against a field of nobodies, who’s trying to succeed scandal-plagued Rick Renzi in an R+2 district, and who’s up against former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s the recipient of a $1.7 million ad reservation by the DCCC.

Hay spokesperson Ron Tyler has a slightly different version of the events than the NRCC:

“There’s been communication and hope, and I don’t think they’ve specifically said no, but so far we haven’t had the check written or the commitment made,” he said. “We still have our prayers that somehow they’ll hear and answer and send us some money.”

Myers Research and Grove Insight for the DSCC (dates unknown, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Meanwhile, NRSC Chair John Ensign says that Republicans could stay at 49 seats after November, which, under any plausible scenario, would have to include a Steve Pearce victory.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

John Boccieri to Introduce Joe Biden in Canton Thursday

At approximately 10:00 a.m. this Thursday, Sept. 18, candidate for U.S. Congress John Boccieri (OH-16) will introduce Senator and Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Joe Biden at a rally in downtown Canton.

Boccieri will address the audience prior to Biden’s appearance, focusing on the need for change in the 16th Congressional District.

WHO: State Sen. John Boccieri (D-Alliance), 16th District Congressional Candidate, Sen. Joe Biden (DE), Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee

WHAT: Change We Need Rally

WHERE: Football Hall of Fame, 2121 George Halas Drive NW, Canton, OH

WHEN: Approximately 10:00 a.m. (doors open at 8:00 a.m.)

John Boccieri is the Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress in the 16th Congressional District. The district’s current congressman, Ralph Regula, is retiring this year.

Boccieri has represented eastern Stark County for eight years in the Ohio legislature as a State Representative and State Senator. Boccieri has also served 14 years in the U.S. Air Force, including four tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, and currently holds the rank of Major. Boccieri was born and raised in northeast Ohio and lives in Alliance with his wife, Stacey, and four children.

The event is free and open to the public; however, tickets are required. Space is limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.

For more information, call the Canton Campaign for Change office (330) 452-4746

Via West Virginia Blue, Robert Byrd has cut a commercial for Anne Barth (D), running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito (R).  It’s pretty similar to the DSCC ads against Elizabeth Dole, with two men sitting on the porch just chattin’ away.

Franklin & Marshall College Poll (9/9-14, registered voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35

Lou Barletta (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Now, there’s not much that I know about this poll’s sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it’s hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we’ll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)

Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it’s getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He’s in serious trouble.

UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 48

Lou Barletta (R): 39

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Even those aren’t exactly rock-solid numbers, but they’re much better than anything else we’ve seen so far.

Talk about going off message. In an interview with PolitickerPA.com, GOP Rep. Phil English called the fact that the NRCC is polling his race against Democratic businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper an “ominous” portent for his re-election:

“Ominously, we saw also they had polled,” noted English. “I think they’re testing.”

Not exactly ringing words of self-confidence, wouldn’t you say? But don’t worry, Philly quickly shifted gears to full spin mode:

But the results of the survey, he speculated, had been favorable.

“I think it’s also significant that we noticed from a distance that after they polled they did not go forward and launch early ads. I think that’s a strong indication of how strong our campaign has been.”

In that case, every Republican incumbent must be in incredibly strong shape, because the NRCC hasn’t spent a dime on attack ads anywhere. Or it could be that the NRCC has a 4-to-1 cash disadvantage against the DCCC, and can’t afford to use up their resources this early. But what do I know.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but the beads of sweat forming on Philly’s upper lip are quite telling.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.