Swing State Project

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell won’t be seeking a recount in his primary challenge against Don Young:

“If I thought there was anything wrong, inappropriate or unprofessional about the way this election tally was conducted, I would not only call for a recount, I would demand one. But that is not the case here,” Parnell stated. “While a recount could change the outcome of this exceedingly close election – normal human error being what it is – such a result is unlikely. As such, I do not believe it justifies an expenditure of taxpayer funds.”

Now, other parties can petition the state to push for a recount, so that may still happen. But it won’t be done with Parnell’s blessing.

Parnell and the Club For Growth really let this one slip through their fingers. As Stuart Rothenberg might say (but won’t), they should be ashamed of themselves. Young now is facing the fight of his life against former Democratic state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.

I’ve heard that we might see a new poll of this race relatively soon, so stay tuned.

SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 36

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

And here’s Rasmussen (9/16, likely voters, 8/14 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Pick your poison. Here’s one glaring discrepancy between the polls: SurveyUSA finds that the kids love them some Chambliss, with Saxby leading Martin by 51-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Rasmussen says that 18-29 year-olds are giving Martin a monster 67-30 lead.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: Saxby’s own poll gives him a 52-33 lead.

Remember how Republican Martha Rainville actually made this a fairly close race in 2006? Those days are now just a foggy memory for the Vermont GOP:

Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., calls himself a proud Democrat, but says he’ll accept the Republican congressional nomination.

Welch says he was surprised to receive enough write-in votes on Republican ballots to secure the nomination of a party that didn’t put up a candidate of its own.

Kossack Kagro X via email: “He should demand the opportunity to debate himself.”

The Portland-based Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall (9/11-14, registered voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 39

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42

Dave Brownlow (C): 4

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here is the money shot:

More than half of Oregon voters viewed Smith favorably as recently as a year ago, but now that’s down to one-third of the voters, less than those who view him unfavorably. Only 53 percent of Republicans view him favorably – lower than President Bush’s 65 percent approval rating among Oregon Republicans.

A Rasmussen poll released yesterday gave Smith a 1-point lead, and a Merkley internal poll from last week showed the incumbent trailing by three points.

Things are just not looking up for El Gordo.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: I didn’t immediately grasp the magnitude when seeing “one-third” written out, so remember: Smith’s overall favorable rating is 33%. Let that sink in for a while: 33%. (Also worth noting, via the Oregonian‘s story on this poll: the original numbers released for the poll, which didn’t account for pushing leaners, were Smith up by only 1: 37-36.)

If there was any confusion about the pollster, Tim Hibbitts (who’s little known outside Oregon, but is considered the gold standard within the state), this is an independent poll commissioned by the local Fox TV affiliate, not an internal.

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

Chris Smith likes to say that he’s an independent voice who doesn’t vote along party lines. Smith also claims to be pro-worker, pro-union, and pro-woman. Well, here’s one vote that demonstrates that he is none of those things.

Smith, along with 99% of House Republicans, voted against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2007. The bill passed the House 225-199, as virtually all Democrats voted in favor of it, but it was filibustered by George Bush and Chris Smith’s allies in the Senate. [HR 2831, Vote #768, 7/31/07] Smith, Christopher (NJ/R) N

Lilly Ledbetter suffered wage and gender discrimination at her job but could not sue because the existing law is outdated and poorly written. The Lilly Ledbetter Act that Chris Smith voted against would ensure that workers who face wage discrimination, the majority of whom are women, are able to protect their right to equal work for equal pay. It is a travesty that women still earn only 77 cents for every dollar that men earn on the job. Equal pay for equal work is not only an issue of fundamental fairness, it’s an absolute necessity if we want to reward hard work and encourage personal responsibility. Apparently, Chris Smith doesn’t share those American values.

“In this time of exploding prices for gas and basic necessities, job losses, and the collapse in the value of our homes, it is unconscionable to think that our government would favor corporations who knowingly discriminate against women or any employee by paying some workers less than others for doing the same work. Yet that is exactly what Chris Smith did with this vote.” said Josh Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico.

The campaign is entering a critical phase and we need your support. You can contribute at Josh’s ActBlue page. If you’d like to volunteer, please contact ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. Please visit Josh’s website to learn more about why we need to elect Josh to Congress.

There was a poll after the GA primary that showed Martin down 6 and Schumer and the DSCC said they’d keep an eye on this race. Well, it looks like they may look elsewhere now.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/11-14, likely voters, May in parens):

Suzanne Kosmas (D): 42 (37)

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 43 (51)

Gaurav Bhola (I): 1 (-)

Undecided: 14 (12)

Kosmas has been hitting the airwaves hard in recent weeks for her race against Abramoff associate Tom Feeney, and it looks like it’s beginning to pay off.

Full polling memo under the fold.

Candidate filing is now complete and whilst we won’t do as well as 2006 we still have candidates in 421 districts. Oh yeh and I am flying over from Australia in 10 days to spend the rest of the campaign volunteering for a house candidate!

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

421 races filled! This of course includes 236 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 185 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 185

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 0

Districts without any candidates – 0

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 14

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-07 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-10 – R+4,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

None

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

None

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-01 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

AL-06 – R+25,

No candidate for the second election in a row.

AR-03 – R+11,

Our candidatre withdrew all Arkansas incumbents unopposed (3D, 1R and Democrtaic Senator Mark Pryor).

CA-19 – R+10,

Our candidate withdrew.

CA-22 – R+16,

No candidate appeared.

KY-05 – R+8,

Our candidate withdrew to run in the Senate Primary (He got trounced).

LA-05 – R+10,

Our likely candidate declined to run.

TX-01 – R+17,

Our 2006 candidate is running as an Independent.

TX-02 – R+12,

A candidate set up an exploratory committee but did not go on with it.

TX-05 – R+16,

Our candidate didn’t file.

TX-11 – R+25,

Our candidate filed too late.

TX-14 – R+14,

Our candidate switched parties!

TX-21 – R+13,

A candidate filed with the FEC but then didn’t file with the SOS.

WI-05 – R+12,

Our candidate withdrew.

So there you go :). 421 is still a fantastic effort but gee it could have easily been 430+.

As for me I will be spending the last five weeks of the campaign volunteering for Dan Seals in IL-10 (Yeh my version of a holiday), followed by a couple of weeks in NYC hanging out and playing tourist.

The first 2010 House diary will be posted in January with a lot less than 199 GOP districts to find candidates for

Go Obama!!!

Benawu

It looks like Alaska Dems have got their crumb-bum:

In a close race only decided Wednesday with the final counting of about 350 outstanding absentee and questioned ballots, Young beat Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by 304 votes.

State election officials will certify the election on Thursday.

Parnell has said he may ask for a recount. Election officials have said a recount of the Aug. 26 vote could take up to 10 days to complete.

The most recent poll of this race, by Ivan Moore Research, shows Democrat Ethan Berkowitz with a big 54-37 lead over Young. A great margin to start out with, but I don’t think we can afford to take this race for granted, given both Young’s tenacity and Palin at the top of the ticket.

Still, this is exactly the match-up we need. It wouldn’t hurt for Parnell to stretch out the uncertainty by forcing a recount, though.

UPDATE: Time to revisit The Donald’s own words:

“If I win this primary, when I win this primary and [Ethan Berkowitz] is my opponent, which is not a given, he’ll be a very good challenge,” Young said. “He’s very qualified for the job. … I just think he’s got more on the ball. Not as much as I, but more than anybody else running.”

UPDATE II: Like a laser, Berkowitz is honing in on those Parnell-LeDoux voters:

“I would like to congratulate Don Young on his victory, but also give particular thanks to Sean Parnell and Gabrielle LeDoux,” Berkowitz said in a statement reaching out to their supporters.

He said both fought to “bring positive change to Alaska’s seat in Congress. I want their supporters to know that they still have that chance. Together, we will finish what your campaigns started,” he said.

SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters, 5/30-6/1 in parens):

Tom Udall (D): 56 (60)

Steve Pearce (R): 41 (35)

We’ll post the full crosstabs when SUSA releases them, but this is looking good. Udall leads Pearce by a whopping 20 points among women voters, and has a 2-to-1 lead among independents. The findings closely mirror a DSCC internal poll released today showing Udall leading by 16 points. (Update: Crosstabs are available here.)

Even more good news for Democrats: Obama leads McCain in New Mexico by 52-44 according to the same round of polling.