Swing State Project

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

PPP has a new poll out this morning with Kay Hagan leading Liddy Dole 43-42. This offsets yesterday’s bogus SUSA poll.

Also in the poll:

McSame 48, Obama 44

And the governor’s race:

Perdue 41, McCrory 40

A quick round-up of last night’s congressional and gubernatorial primaries:

• DE-Gov (D): State Treasurer Jack Markell edged Lt. Gov. John Carney by 1,700 votes for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Markell will face Republican Bill Lee in November.
• DE-AL (D): Children’s rights activist Karen Hartley-Nagle beat Mike Miller by a 55-34 margin for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Castle in November. Kossack Jerry “Possum” Northington gobbled up 10% of the vote.
• MN-Sen (D): Al Franken jogged past attorney Priscilla Lord Faris by a 65-30 margin for the Dem nomination against Norm Coleman.
• MN-01 (R): Physician Brian Davis schooled state Sen. Dick Day by 67-33 for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Walz. I guess it just wasn’t a Dick Day Afternoon.
• NH-01 (R): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley squeaked by former state Health Commissioner John Stephen by a 51-47 margin for the GOP nod against frosh Dem Rep. Carol Shea Porter.
• NH-02 (R): Radio personality Jennifer Horn beat state Sen. Bob Clegg by a 40-34 margin for the dubious prize of a GOP nomination in this D+2.7 district. Horn faces steep odds against Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November.
• NY-10 (D): Crusty Democratic Rep. Ed Towns held back a primary challenge from former reality TV star Kevin Powell, winning with a comfortable 67-33 spread.
• NY-13 (D & R): NYC Councilman Mike McMahon easily dispatched ’06 candidate Steve Harrison by a 75-25 margin for the Dem nod for this open seat. In what has been the most pathetic offering of candidates by the Staten Island GOP in decades, unpopular ex-Assemblyman Robert Straniere bounced unpopular physician Jamhsad Wyne by 59-41.
• NY-21 (D): Ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko nabbed the Dem nod to replace retiring Rep. Mike McNulty in this D+8.7 district by 39-30 over former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks.
• NY-26 (D): I believe this is called a “murder-suicide”. Iraq Vet Jon Powers and perennial candidate (and billionaire nativist industrialist) Jack Davis were trounced by unheralded environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who won the Dem nod for this open seat with 42% of the vote to Powers’ 36% and Davis’ 23%. Kryzan will go up against businessman Chris Lee, who is partially self-funding his campaign, in November.

Polls have now closed in New York and Minnesota. Lots of sideshows here, but NY-26 is by far the biggest marquee race of the night.

RESULTS: NY (AP) | MN-01 (AP) | MN-Sen (AP)

11:38PM: The AP has called it for Brian Davis in MN-01. Al Franken’s at 66%-30%, which doesn’t strike me as so hot.

10:53PM: It’s now official — Alice Kryzan is the Dem nominee in NY-26. She leads by 1200 votes with 4% outstanding.

10:42PM: Amusing tidbit of the day: The loser of the Dem primary in NY-13, Steven Harrison, claimed more votes than the winner of the GOP primary, Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere, by 3,805 to 3,591 with 98% reporting.

10:36PM: Checking in on Minnesota, Franken leads by 68%-28% over Priscilla Lord Faris with 40% reporting. In MN-01, Brian Davis leads Dick Day by 68%-32% with 38% of precincts reporting. I guess it wasn’t a Dick Day afternoon.

10:22PM: 91% in, and Kryzan leads by 1300 votes. I think we can stick a fork in this one. With Powers still on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate, I think we can strike this district off the map of Democratic pick-up opportunities.

10:10PM: 85% in, and Kryzan still leads by 995 votes. Tonko with a big 42%-29% lead over Brooks in NY-21.

10:04PM: 41%-36% now, but the gap is now 1000 votes for Kryzan, with 82% reporting.

10:00PM: Powers just closed the gap a bit, but Kryzan still leads by 42%-36% (900 votes) with 69% reporting.

9:57PM: In NY-21, Paul Tonko has huge lead over Tracey Brooks with 11% reporting: 59%-19% (1200 votes).

9:44PM: 41% reporting now, and Kryzan is building her lead: 45%-32%-23% (a 1300 vote margin over Powers). On the one hand, it’s lovely to see Davis in third so far, but Kryzan is not exactly an A-game general election candidate.

9:39PM: 25% in now for NY-26, and Kryzan still leads: 43%-33%-24% (Powers-Davis). Could Powers and Davis have bludgeoned each other to death, allowing Kryzan to slip up the middle? Over in NY-10, Towns is back up with a 20% lead with 22% reporting.

9:33PM: Over in NY-26, Kryzan has an early lead with 22% reporting: 43% Kryzan, 33% Powers, 24% Davis.

9:29PM ET: With 9% reporting in NY-13, McMahon and Straniere have comfortable early leads. Over in NY-10, with 3% in, Kevin Powell leads Edolphus Towns by 10% (43 votes).

Polls have now closed in Delaware and New Hampshire, where we’ll be keeping an eye on the GOP primaries in NH-01 and NH-02, and the Dem race for DE-Gov, and for the super curious — DE-AL.

RESULTS: DE-AL (AP) | DE-Gov (AP) | NH-01 and NH-02 (AP)

11:31PM: The AP calls NH-01 for Jeb Bradley. I’ve gotta say, for a two-term former Rep, this was a pretty mediocre showing. This was a damaging primary for the GOP, with Bradley receiving scorn from local editorial boards for his misleading attack ads. All year he’s shown little fire in the belly in terms of fundraising, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the DCCC greets him to the general election campaign with a prompt punch in the nose soon. In short: don’t believe the hype of flawed UNH polls until we see some better information.

10:32PM: With 76% in, Bradley is up by 815 votes. Horn seems to have a comfortable lead at 1300 votes with 71% reporting.

9:53PM: Bradley now leads by 700 votes with 59% in. Horn is back up by 700 votes as well, with 54% reporting.

9:43PM: In NH-01, with 54% in, Bradley is back up by 400 votes. In NH-02, Horn’s lead has whittled down to 20 votes with 47% in.

9:42PM: Jack Markell narrowly wins the Dem gubernatorial nomination in Delaware.

9:26PM: 44% in, and Stephen’s lead is down to a mere 40 votes. If he doesn’t have any other strongholds with Manchester-like margins, I’m not sure that he’ll be able to hold onto the lead for much longer.

9:17PM: With 42% in Stephen has pulled ahead by 49-48 (200 votes) based on his strong performance in Manchester, which is now all in. Horn still leads by 3% (250 votes) with 33% in.

9:14PM: Over in Delaware, with 61% reporting, Markell is up by 52-48 (2500 votes), and Karen Hartley-Nagle has won the right to get creamed by Mike Castle in November. Possum with the big 1-0%.

8:58PM: With 29% reporting, Jeb has opened up a 55-42 lead over Stephen. Horn is up 200 votes (4%) in NH-02 with 22% reporting.

8:44PM: Over in Delaware, Markell is up with a slim lead over Carney (53-47) with 4% in. In the House race, Possum is stuck in a borrow at 10%.

8:39PM ET: With 26% in, Bradley is leading Stephen by 50-47 (or 170 votes), but Stephen has a sizable early lead in Manchester. In NH-01, Horn leads Clegg by 42-34. Dismal turnout.

SurveyUSA (9/6-8, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (41)

Liddy Dole (R-inc): 48 (46)

Chris Cole (L): 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

We’ve seen Kay Hagan surging ahead in other polls, so what’s the dealio here?

Well, this is a weekend poll (which any pollster worth his salt will tell you is a less than ideal time to field a survey) taken immediately after an effective GOP convention. Apparently, McCain’s electrifying convention speech and his selection of moose huntress Sarah Palin has awoken a zombie Republican army, as the poll’s crosstabs reveal a partisan sample of 41% R, 40% D. That’s a dramatic jump from the 46% D, 33% R partisan sample that SUSA found in August.

The findings trickle up the ballot, too: McCain has a monstrous 20% lead over Obama, and Pat McCrory leads Bev Perdue by eight points.

No, I’m not putting much stock in these numbers, although it’s possible that the GOP (especially McCain) received a mini-bump. Our friend Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling doesn’t believe these numbers, either, and that firm is fielding a new poll starting tonight in order to set the record straight.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

I know you’ve heard this. I have, too. “The battleground has moved West.” To a large extent, this is true. And while we probably will may plenty of attention to traditional swing states like Florida & Ohio this fall, we probably also will be spending much more time analyzing developments in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.

But you know what? The Presidential Race isn’t the only interesting race out west. Let’s take a look at some extra goodies that we can look forward to.

Nevada is a critical state for Democrats this fall. First off, this state is a top target for Barack Obama to make the goal of at least 270 electoral votes. But in addition, we have two important Congressional races that can earn us two much needed seats as we expand our majority.

The 3rd Congressional District is one of the hottest races out West, if not the hottest. Dina Titus is running strong in a district where Democrats now outnumber Republicans. Both the Nevada Democratic Party and the Obama campaign are working hard here, and the key for them will be turning out all the newly registered Democrats while also winning over the swing voters that decide both Presidential elections and Congressional elections here in suburban Las Vegas. The Bush-McCain GOP incumbent Jon Porter is running scared, and we can tell. Dina Titus even has new ads on the air, and with our support she’ll have everything she needs to win.

The 2nd Congressional District may have been tradionally a Republican stronghold, but Jill Derby is changing that. The race is competitive, and the Bush-McCain GOP footsoldier Dean Heller is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink to maintain his edge. We have the power to hold Heller’s feet to the fire, and ultimately help Derby give Heller the boot.

Although Arizona may be John McCain’s home state, that isn’t stopping Democrats from competing hard here. And in addition to the Presidential race, we have a great candidate in Ann Kirkpatrick who looks to replace the corrupt (and retiring) GOPer Rick Renzi. Ann Kirkpatrick has worked hard for her community, has real Arizona values, and is running to bring about real change. This is one of our best chances at picking up a seat out west, so let’s take it!

We all know New Mexico is one of our top swing states that we can turn blue. But in addition to Obama’s victory, we can also send another Democrat to Congress! Martin Heinrich is running strong in this Albuquerque district… In fact, so strong that he’s now taken the lead in the latest independent poll! The voters now see that Republican Darren White is just another Bush-Cheney sycophant, and they’re ready for real change.

OK, so I know these aren’t all of the great races that we’re discovering out West. However, I hope that this gives you an idea of what’s really at stake. If we play our cards right, we may not only wind up with a President Obama next January, but also with more and better Democrats in Congress. But if we don’t stand up for our Democrats now, we can’t win.

So please, stand with us. If you live in any of these areas, help out with the campaign. And no matter where you are, support your party, your values, and your candidates. Are you ready to win? I am! 🙂

Rasmussen (likely voters, 9/7):

Max Baucus (D-inc): 64

Bob Kelleher (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s ganja break time for Max Baucus.

Bonus finding: In the same poll, McCain has surged to a 53-42 lead over Obama. That’s up from a 45-44 McCain lead in July.

There are a whole lot of primaries that will be decided tonight. Most of them are sideshows, but a few of them are real races. Here’s everything of remote interest:

• DE-Gov (D): Jack Markell vs. John Carney
• DE-AL (D): Moose vs. Squirrel Jerry “Possum” Northington vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle and Mike Miller
• MN-Sen (D): Al Franken vs. Priscilla Lord Faris
• MN-01 (R): Dick Day vs. Brian Davis
• NH-01 (R): Jeb Bradley vs. John Stephen
• NH-02 (R): Jennifer Horn vs. Bob Clegg and various losers
• NY-10 (D): Ed Towns vs. Kevin Powell
• NY-13 (D & R): Mike McMahon vs. Stephen Harrison; Jamshad Wyne vs. Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere
• NY-21 (D): Paul Tonko vs. Tracey Brooks vs. Phil Steck vs. Darius Shahinfar
• NY-26 (D): Crazy Jack Davis vs. Alice Kryzan vs. John Powers

Got any predictions?

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 47 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In Washington, SurveyUSA comes out with the first poll since March giving GOP challenger Dino Rossi a lead. Two thoughts: this poll was taken over the weekend, at the very peak of the afterglow from the Republican convention, and Rossi has also been hitting the airwaves hard with ads (although that looks to continue for the foreseeable future… the Republican Governor’s Association, not having many other places to spend its money, gave Rossi $1 million on Aug. 21).

Although the crosstabs look quite normal, there’s also something kind of fishy about how some of the numbers break down. In May, Gregoire led by 24 points among women, and trailed by 20 points among men. Today, Gregoire and Rossi are tied among women, and Rossi leads by 2 among men. The Palin pick couldn’t have had that much of an effect, could it? (Especially since polls have generally indicated that pick was more popular with men than women.) In addition, the same sample gave Obama a lead of only 49-45, which is the smallest lead he’s had in Washington since February.

The Pollster.com graph for the race can be seen here.

More Republican ballot box bullshit:

Over the objection of state Attorney General Jim Hood, the state sample ballot to be used in the November general election will have the U.S. Senate race between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker at the end of the ballot.

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann recommended to Gov. Haley Barbour today during a meeting of the state Election Commission that the special election between Musgrove, a Democrat, and Wicker, a Republican, be placed at the end of the ballot.

Barbour approved the recommendation.

All in all, this is a pretty brazen move designed to discourage first-time voters — many of which are expected to be African-American Obama Democrats — from casting a ballot in the state’s hotly-contested Senate special election. Barbour and the boys really went to great pains in order to hide this race at the tail end of the ballot.

Full statement from the Ronnie Musgrove campaign after the jump.

UPDATE: A local judge has blocked the ballots from being distributed after a restraining order was filed by Pike County Election Commissioner Trudy Berger earlier this afternoon.

Secretary of State Presents Unlawful Ballot, Buries US Senate Race in Ballot

Secretary Hosemann Unable to Cite any Statute to Move Race from Top

Jackson, MS- Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann today presented an unlawful sample ballot which buries the special US Senate race between Governor Ronnie Musgrove and interim US Senator Roger Wicker.  The ballot was approved by Governor Haley Barbour.

Hosemann buried the Musgrove-Wicker race below all local races near the bottom of the ballot.

Hosemann could cite no statue supporting his decision to move the race from the top of the ballot.  However, Attorney General Jim Hood did cite election law requiring federal races be placed at the top of the ballot.

“We will win this election no matter where the Secretary of State puts it on the ballot,” Tim Phillips, Musgrove for Senate campaign manager said.  “But this is about the law and they don’t get to make up their own laws.”

The unlawful ballot is expected to cause confusion for voters expecting to find the Musgrove-Wicker race with other federal elections where it belongs.  The most prominent election in the state will be one of the hardest races to find on Election Day.  

Mississippi election law, code 23-15-367, clearly states federal races, like the Musgrove-Wicker race, belong on the top of the ballot.