PA-04: Altmire Leads by 5 in Hart’s Poll

Public Opinion Strategies for Melissa Hart (8/17-18, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 49

Melissa Joan Hart (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hart held this district for three terms before the socially conservative, economically moderate Altmire took the shine out of her rising star in 2006. Despite the close margin, it’s hard for me to imagine the voters of this R+2.6 district deciding that they made a mistake in firing her, especially with Hart getting badly beaten in the money race so far.

Bonus finding: The poll shows McCain smacking Obama by a 52-39 margin in this district. Bush beat Kerry by 54-45 here in 2004.

SSP rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Step Up for Red State Democratic Candidates for Senate

One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states.  Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.

You can blow the Senate Guru‘s mind by helping meet the below goals in the week ahead by contributing to these red state Democrats via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page:

Red state Democrat
Currently At
Goal Amount
Distance to Goal
Bob Tuke
$40
$100
$60 to go
Jim Slattery
$350
$500
$150 to go
Ronnie Musgrove
$413
$500
$87 to go
Jim Martin
$760
$1,000
$240 to go

$100 makes a huge difference.  $10 makes a huge difference.  We’re now less than two months from Election Day.  Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats’ chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate.  Let’s keep that momentum going!

WV-02: Capito likes when Bush plays politics with soldiers’ lives

Over and over again we’ve seen a pattern from Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-Big Oil). When Democrats in Congress tried to take steps to do what the American people want and bring the troops home from Iraq, Capito called it “playing politics.” But when George W. Bush and his administration plays politics with the lives of troops, we hear only silence from her. So much for her “independence.” The only conclusion that can be reached: Capito likes it when Bush plays politics with the lives of soldiers.

Capito on March 23, 2007 regarding a Congressional bill in support of timelines:

“By giving our enemy a date-certain timeline for withdrawal, we are simply asking them to duck into the shadows and wait for us to leave.  Such timelines hog-tie the hands of our commanders in the field and essentially hand our enemy a roadmap to victory.

Yet the Bush administration reached a timeline agreement with the Iraqi government as reported on Aug. 22, 2008 that sets specific dates.

A deal between American and Iraqi officials was given fresh impetus by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s surprise visit to Baghdad on Thursday. Ms. Rice met with Mr. Maliki and other Iraqi leaders and confirmed that both sides saw the value in “aspirational timetables” to govern the continuing role, mission and size of American forces in Iraq.

She declined to discuss the timing, saying that to go into details of the talks “would be inappropriate at this time.” Instead, she reiterated the consistent American position that decisions must be based on events, not timetables.



Iraqi officials were more forthcoming with their interpretation of the draft agreement. In an interview by telephone in Baghdad, Mohammad Hamoud, the chief Iraqi negotiator, said that the draft contained two dates: June 30, 2009, for the withdrawal of American forces from “cities and villages” and Dec. 31, 2011, for combat troops to leave the country altogether.

But we heard nothing from Capito after Bush and the Iraqis agreed, in Capito’s own words, to giving the enemy “a roadmap to victory.”

Capito also on March 23, 2007 expressed her “belief” that decisions should be left to the commanders on the ground:

“Congress has the power of the purse, but it should not micromanage this war or any war by making decisions best left for those on the battlefield.  I want our troops to come home, but I want that decision to be made by our commanders who are basing their decisions on the conditions on the ground and in what is best for the security of our nation.”

Yet we find out today from Bob Woodward’s interviews with Bush and those very same commanders on the ground and in the Pentagon that Bush made decisions for political reasons. He took the decisions out of the hands of the commanders and made the country less safe.

At the Joint Chiefs of Staff in late November 2006, Gen. Peter Pace was facing every chairman’s nightmare: a potential revolt of the other chiefs. Two months earlier, the JCS had convened a special team of colonels to recommend options for reversing the deteriorating situation in Iraq. Now, it appeared that the chiefs’ and colonels’ advice was being marginalized, if not ignored, by the White House.

During a JCS meeting with the colonels Nov. 20, Chairman Pace dropped a bomb: The White House was considering a “surge” of additional troops to quell the violence in Iraq. “Would it be a good idea?” Pace asked the group. “If so, what would you do with five more brigades?” That amounted to 20,000 to 30,000 more troops, depending on the number of support personnel.

Pace’s question caught the chiefs and colonels off guard. The JCS hadn’t recommended a surge, and Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Iraq commander, was opposed to one of that magnitude. Where had this come from? Was it a serious option? Was it already a done deal?

Pace said he had another White House meeting in two days. “I want to be able to give the president a recommendation on what’s doable,” he said.

A rift had been growing between the country’s military and civilian leadership, and in several JCS meetings that November, the chiefs’ frustrations burst into the open. They had all but dismissed the surge option, worried that the armed forces were already stretched to the breaking point.

Where is Capito’s criticism that she made before of politicians making decisions instead of the “commanders on the ground”?

It was so important to her that Capito made that point the basis of another statement on Nov. 14, 2007:

“This is yet another politically motivated resolution by the Majority that would undercut the decision-making power of commanders on the ground in Iraq,” said Capito.

And yet that is what top Pentagon officials told Bob Woodward Bush did. Bush was motivated by politics at home to take away their decision to withdraw troops in order to have his escalation, his “surge” that they thought stretched the military to the breaking point and left the country with out a strategic reserve in the event of another crisis elsewhere:

The president was not listening to Casey’s boss, Gen. John P. Abizaid at Central Command, anymore, either.

“Yeah, I know,” the president said to Abizaid at a National Security Council session in December, “you’re going to tell me you’re against the surge.”

Yes, Abizaid replied, and then presented his argument that U.S. forces needed to get out of Iraq in order to win.

“The U.S. presence helps to keep a lid on,” Bush responded. There were other benefits. A surge would “also help here at home, since for many the measure of success is reduction in violence,” Bush said. “And it’ll help [Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-] Maliki to get control of the situation. A heavier presence will buy time for his government.”

The rest of Iraq wasn’t as tenuous as Baghdad, Abizaid said. “But it’s the capital city that looks chaotic,” Bush said. “And when your capital city looks chaotic, it’s hard to sustain your position, whether at home or abroad.”

Clearly Bush was motivated by political reasons. Think that’s just my interpretation:

Pace, Schoomaker and Casey found themselves badly out of sync with the White House in the fall of 2006, finally losing control of the war strategy altogether after the midterm elections. Schoomaker was outraged when he saw news coverage that retired Gen. Jack Keane, the former Army vice chief of staff, had briefed the president Dec. 11 about a new Iraq strategy being proposed by the American Enterprise Institute, the conservative think tank.

“When does AEI start trumping the Joint Chiefs of Staff on this stuff?” Schoomaker asked at the next chiefs’ meeting.

Yet where is Capito’s criticism of Bush making “politically motivated” decisions that tied the hands of the commanders on the ground?

She made that criticism to justify her roadblocking of legislation to do EXACTLY what the generals were wanting to do – to pull the troops out to let the Iraqis take over. Yet we hear only silence from her now.

She’s not independent. She’s a coward who only does what Bush and the Republican leaders tell her to do. Capito knew the surge would not work. She said as much:

However, I have grave concerns regarding the call for increased American troop numbers in Iraq and am skeptical of this new plan’s success.  I believe the escalating sectarian violence in Iraq requires a political solution, not a military solution rooted in increased numbers of American troops.

Never forget this. Despite expressing those “concerns,” Capito backed it anyway. She made the politically motivated decision to back Bush’s politically motivated surge and then she accused Democrats and Republicans who opposed the surge and sought to bring the troops home of tying the hands of the commanders in the field, when that is exactly what she supported George W. Bush in doing.

How many died since she made the decision to back the president playing politics with the lives of soldiers instead of standing up and representing the American people?

Capito shouldn’t be running for reelection. She should be hanging her head in shame.

We have a chance to elect a Congressional representative who wants to end the war in Iraq quickly and responsibly.

Here’s Anne Barth’s position:

We must focus on training the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security soon, set benchmarks for the Iraqi military, and give more emphasis to diplomatic strategies.  

The war in Iraq has had a serious impact on our military, and our brave men and women are stretched thin by extended deployments. In Congress, I will work to strengthen America’s national security and refocus on the terrorist threats around the globe that are currently ignored.

Look how closely it mirrors the exact view held by the commanders on the ground – the same ones whose views Capito said were so important and for years she ignored as Bush played politics and others paid the ultimate price.

More on Anne Barth here. More on Capito here.

Our West Virginia Blue Act Blue page for Anne Barth here.

OK-Sen: Inhofe Posts Big Lead in New SUSA Poll

SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters):

Andrew Rice (D): 34

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Oof. These numbers are very different than the ones we saw in a recent DSCC internal which showed Inhofe leading by 50-41. Granted, this poll was taken during the full bloom of Palinmania! and other GOP convention absurdities, but I really doubt that that dog and pony show was responsible for the margins that we’re seeing here.

Bonus finding: McCain is creaming Obama by a 65-32 margin in the Sooner state.

Obama People Way Too Nervous

Recent polling data has shown the expected result: a narrowing of the presidential race. Everyone of these polls gathered data immediately following the Republican Convention. Yet, in scouring the blogosphere, one would think that the freakin’ world just ended.

Obama supporters are way, way too nervous. Please, do not pay attention to these polls. They are worth a SOS…however, if you must, look at them as if the cup is half full and not half empty.

Four new national popular vote polls (CBS, ABC, Diageo/Hotline and Rasmussen) all have the race essentially tied…and this during the period of McCain’s (expected) biggest post-convention bounce.

My friends, it is extremely important to remain very optimistic and continue to do the grunt work like never before in this effort. New voter registration numbers are very positive for Obama and the Democrats down ticket. Don’t blow it.

KY-03: Yarmuth With Comfortable Lead

Survey USA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (53)

Anne Northup (R): 45 (43)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In a poll taken in the brightest (or darkest?) moments of the Republican convention hazy afterglow, John Yarmuth is still holding his own in his rematch against Anne Northup in this Louisville-based D+2 district. As you’ll recall, Yarmuth defeated ten-year incumbent Northup in 2006. Northup went on to do herself no favors by losing the 2007 gubernatorial primary to the scandal-soiled Ernie Fletcher.

This has shaped up to be a big money race, with both Yarmuth and Northup being prolific fundraisers. Yarmuth still maintains a sizable cash edge, although he lost the 2Q race.

SSP rates this race as Lean Dem.

CA-04: Brown Noses McClintock in New Poll

Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (8/21-24, likely voters, 5/14-15 in parens):

Charlie Brown (D): 43 (42)

Tom McClintock (R): 41 (40)

Undecided: 15 (18)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Some nice, steady numbers for Charlie here. McClintock still outpaces Brown in terms of name recognition (76% to 67%), but the Conservative Icon begins the campaign with slightly higher negatives (32% to Brown’s 26%), and both post similar favorable ratings in the low 40s.

Brown will be fighting against a tough GOP headwind in this R+11 district as he tries to sway those undecideds, but he’s starting off in good shape.

(Thanks to Andy D. for spotting this one.)

AK-Sen, CO-Sen, NH-Sen: NRSC Releases a Trio of Polls

Moore Information (not to be confused with Ivan Moore Research) for the NRSC (registered voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Begich (D): 44

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The Tarrance Group for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Mark Udall (D): 40

Bob Schaffer (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Public Opinion Research for the NRSC (likely voters, 9/2-3):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46

John Sununu (R-inc): 44

Ken Blevens (L): 5

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Now, I’m not gonna sound the alarm bell over a trio of NRSC polls taken during the GOP’s convo week, but the numbers are worth chewing on. We have already seen Stevens bouncing back in Alaska in another recent poll by Ivan Moore, although that survey showed Begich still leading by 49-46.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 47-45 in Colorado.

OH-16: John Boccieri: A Fighter. For Us. – Video

I was surfing blogs this morning and stumbled upon this great ad for Senator John Boccieri(D).

We have lost major employers and suffered through “Kirk Schuring’s Gas Tax” increase while he gave himself a $9000 pay raise.

Senator Major John Boccieri(D) has served us in Iraq, Afghanastan, and 40 countries around the world. He has committed to stand up against Big Oil and help to bring down sky-rocketing gas prices. He stands with the middle class and organized labor. John Boccieri is the clear choice for Ohio’s Fighting 16th District!

From the DCCC:

John Boccieri: A Fighter. For Us. (OH-16)

A veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, John Boccieri is the right candidate to represent Ohio’s 16th Congressional District in Washington.

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Calling for a Rural Renewal in the 5th District — September 7th,

As we move into the final 2 months in the campaign for the 5th Congressional District, the economic conditions in the 5th district will play a key role in the outcome of this race.  The facts are clear that rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania lags behind the rest of the state and nation in economic development and opportunities for our citizens.  Recent unemployment statistics released by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry shows that 2 counties in the 5th district, Cameron and Forest, have the 2 highest unemployment rates in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  Additionally, 15 of the 17 counties in the 5th district have unemployment rates over 5%, which is unacceptable.

While the unemployment news is bad enough, worse is the most recent median household income figures reported by the US Census Bureau — 2006 American Communities Survey showing that citizens in the 5th district earn on average almost $12,000 less per year than the rest of the United States.  This is an abysmal number and is one of the main reasons that the best and brightest of our young people tend to leave our communities after high school and college graduation.  Why would they stay when the cost for food, clothes, gas, utilities and other necessities are the same as the rest of the country while income levels are much less in the 5th district?

What is needed for the 5th district to combat a continuation of the high unemployment rates and lower than average income levels is a commitment to have a “Rural Renewal” in the 5th Congressional District.  When I am your congressman, I plan to work on the idea of having a rural renewal for rural north central and northwest Pennsylvania that will bring investment for necessary infrastructure improvements to all our counties and communities.  I will work as a direct partner with county commissioners and economic development agencies to determine what upgrades are needed in the various counties and then work with state and federal level officials to secure funding for important projects.  

The idea for a “Rural Renewal” will only work if voters in the 5th district realize that turning around the economic fortunes of this district starts with them on November 4th.  While the economic indicator numbers referenced above are recent numbers from June of 2008 for the unemployment figures and from 2006 for the median income levels, these are trends that have continued in the 5th district for several decades.  These trends have continued over the last 12 years under our current representative in Washington and likely will continue unless the next member of Congress from the 5th District makes a real commitment to changing these trends.  My commitment is that I will be the lead partner with our state and county level elected officials along with economic development and business leaders to bring a rural renewal to the 5th district.  

The question voters must ask themselves is this:  Do you want More of the Same high unemployment and low wages or do you want Something Better in a Rural Renewal for the 5th Congressional District?



Schedule for the Upcoming Week:



Sunday
— Clinton County Picnic at 1 PM / Lycoming County Picnic at 3 PM



Monday
–  American Federation Of Government Employees Council Of Prison Locals, Local 3974 — Bradford PA — 5 PM



Tuesday
— Tioga County / Mansfield — Obama / Democratic HQ Opening — 5 PM



Wednesday
— Surra / McCracken Labor Rally — St. Marys — 3 PM



Friday
— Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM



Saturday
— Warren County HQ Opening — 3 PM  Warren County Democratic Steak Cookout Picnic — 5 PM



Sunday
— Mike Hanna Fundraiser — Moshannon PA — 3 PM

We look forward to seeing you out there on the campaign trail!



Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page