Swing State Project

With Staten Island Republicans still searching for a candidate a week after the death of Frank Powers, the Swing State Project is changing its rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic“.

Democrats landed a top tier candidate for this race in NYC Councilman Mike McMahon, who is rumored to have raised up to $400,000 for his campaign already. Meanwhile, the Staten Island GOP’s cold treatment of ex-Assemblyman Matthew Mirones, who was briefly considering stepping up for Team Red last week before he declined to run, left one local Republican insider exasperated: “It looks like they have been bending over backward to hand this race to Mike [McMahon].”

Richmond Republicans gathered fewer than 2000 signatures for Powers before his death. This is a bit more than the the 1,250 technically required to secure a place on the ballot, and party bigs can appoint a replacement candidate to Powers’s spot. But they might not have enough sigs to ensure that they’ll withstand potential legal challenges from Democrats – it’s very easy to knock out invalid signatures in NY. So the clock is ticking for the GOP to find an actual candidate and gather the required signatures before the state’s July 10th filing deadline.

If a replacement can’t be found, the GOP may have to fall back on unpopular physician Jamshad Wyne, the only currently announced candidate. Wyne would start the race in an extremely awkward position: he endorsed McMahon back in May. You can just imagine the Dem lit. Needless to say, this is not a match-up that the GOP would relish. Alternately, the Republicans might line up behind Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio, who lives in Brooklyn, was once involved in a nepotism scandal at a city agency, and – the best part – is not even a registered Republican.

Further complicating the GOP’s efforts to find a competent challenger is the DCCC’s decision to reserve $2.1 million in air time for this race. Is there any candidate out there who is willing to rush head-first into that kind of artillery barrage? If so, SSP may revisit its rating, but in light of the Staten Island GOP’s misfortunes and foibles, Democrats clearly have the upper hand in this race for the time being.

SSP’s complete list of House race ratings is available here.

Rasmussen (6/26, likely voters, 6/4 in parens):

Dale Cardwell (D): 33 (37)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53 (52)

Vernon Jones (D): 30 (33)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 57 (56)

Jim Martin (D): 39 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (52)

Rand Knight (D): 31

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 55

Josh Lanier (D): 31

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 54

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Not surprisingly, Jones’ favorables are atrocious, with a full 60% having an unfavorable opinion of the controversial DeKalb CEO. I know that Rand Knight and other candidates have their fans on the blogs, but I feel that Martin is the only candidate who will have the resources he needs to defeat Jones in the runoff. Jones and his baggage could be a major hindrance on the Georgia Democratic ticket in November if he makes it through the primary.

We’ve done Senate cattle calls several times in the past, so let’s try something a little more challenging: ranking the House races.

You know what to do: List the competitive House races (as far down as you want to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping. I would suggest making two lists — one for Republican vulnerabilities and the other for Democratic defenses.

You may find SSP’s Competitive House Ratings to be helpful in remembering all the targeted races this year, but don’t let our ratings influence your list. After all, campaigns will be filing their second quarter fundraising reports with the FEC over the next couple of weeks, and our ratings will be due for another revision by then.

Vic Sprouse was once touted as having a political future, until he found he liked talking more about family values than practicing them. He was a rising star of the West Virginia GOP, which may say more about the weakness of their bench than about Sprouse’s qualities as a candidate. Nevertheless, the soon to be irrelevant former Minority State Senate leader has decided to mock Gov. Joe Manchin (D), for – well, if you read Sprouse closely – for being successful.

In a post titled: “I want to live in Joe Manchin’s little world,” Sprouse writes:

For like five minutes, I would love to live in the world that Joe Manchin dwells in…  at first and when I first started listening to Joe speak, I really thought he was just spouting platitiudes and he was just a strong cheerleader of our state.

If Sprouse had ever advanced farther in politics or traveled outside of his overpriced gyms, he’d know that one of the things governors of all states do is talk about the positive attributes of their state and the job they’re doing. One of the biggest problems with the West Virginia GOP, and why I believe the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce often is not supportive of their efforts, is the Republicans love to tear down West Virginia. They’re so partisan in their effort to score political points they don’t care if they hurt economic development efforts. States compete for employers and often political and business leaders of a state work together to attract companies. The West Virginia GOP has made a decision – a bad strategy for the state and for politicking – that they will constantly be negative about West Virginia’s economy and government. They badmouth the state in an effort to convince voters they should be given the chance to run it.

Last year, WV GOP Chairman Doug McKinney decreed the party would throw the evangelicals and gun owners under the bus and focus on the economy this election cycle.

“‘Unleashing capitalism’ will be our party platform next year,” McKinney said. “Our philosophy will be, ‘It’s the economy, Stupid.’

“We’ve spent too much time in recent years on gun control and abortion.”

Then John Raese, part time West Virginia resident and occasional darling of the WV GOP, wandered off his party’s script:

“My family has been doing business in West Virginia since 1905. A lot of people have done business and done very well in West Virginia,” he said.

“We have more natural resources in West Virginia than all but two other states, Texas and Louisiana. We have the finest work force of anywhere in the United States.”

That knocked McKinney and his “Unleashing Capitalism” campaign for a loop, the real goal of which is to return to the days when coal barons could exploit workers and break unions, and not be hindered by safety or environmental regulations of any sort.

West Virginia experienced the days McKinney and Sprouse want to return to. They were the bad old days.

In his post, Sprouse is just continuing the WV GOP’s smear of the state’s economic development work with his snide comments about Manchin meeting with business executives. But I think there’s also something personal as well as political about it with Sprouse. It doesn’t take much reading between the lines to see Sprouse can’t stand that Manchin is popular with voters and fairly successful at running the state government.

Unlike many other governors across the country who’ve overspent, Manchin’s administration has a budget surplus.

“We’ll miss the downturn of the economy, because of the energy surge and the demand for coal,” Manchin told The Herald-Dispatch’s editorial board. “But if we don’t diversify our economy during the surge, we’ll have problems.”

Manchin said the state’s commitment to pay down debts during his first three years in office was a primary reason why the state will have a $290 million surplus in this year’s budget. But rather than use that money on one-time expenditures, the best option was to use it as an investment in education and diversifying the work force, Manchin said.

“It was a monumental task getting everyone to agree that we should invest $100 million in education,” Manchin said of his Bucks for Jobs initiative. “I can say it was one of the hardest things I have ever done, because everyone had their own ideas for how to spend this money.”

Under the Bucks for Jobs program, West Virginia University will get $35 million and Marshall University will get $15 million, provided both schools can match the funds with private donations within five years.

That’s called investing in West Virginia’s future.

Now I’ve done plenty of criticizing of the governor’s policies at times, but criticizing Manchin for “cheerleading” for the state as Sprouse does is like criticizing a minister for preaching or an artist for painting or a gym owner for folding the towels and clean the sweat off the equipment. It’s part of a governor’s job.

A job, by the way, that Sprouse will never have though it’s a certain bet he once dreamed he would.

That’s the real reason, for five minutes, Sprouse would love to live in Manchin’s world.

Ok, just read a Daily News report about Frank Powers’s funeral, which occured today.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new…

Apparently, his son and erswhile political opponent Frank Powers Jr. was arrested for punching a cop during the funeral after accosting his step-mother.

The confusing thing about the article is that it states that Frank Powers Jr. was the one who was taken away in an ambulance screaming “I’m not crazy!” … but the picture indicates “Robert John Powers” being taken into custody, and shows a man with, uh, far less hair than his older brother.

So clearly the Daily News has got something mixed up – but clearly something funky’s going on in Staten Island.

Only way this could get stranger is if the Republicans actually nominated Curtis Silwa (potential candidate, right-wing talk radio host, and founder of Guardian Angels) and he began staging vigilante interventions on the Staten Island Ferry to get himself some press…

Exxon Ed Whitfield has had this seat for a long time and made a lot of votes. During his tenure, he has been a constant rubber-stamp for the failed policies of the Bush Administration. Despite his election year “Renaisance” Exxon Eddie can’t hide from his real record. He has consistenty gotten it wrong time and time again.

At Ryan for Kentucky the one thing we can assure you is that their are deep, fundamental differences between our candidate, Heather Ryan and Exxon Ed Whitfield, and the Republican Party. We have a different set of priorities to fight for.

You see, Heather Ryan is not beholden to the Pharmeceutical Industry, the Big Oil Lobby, or the Chamber of Commerce. In Congress, Heather Ryan will be beholden to the working Americans that put her there. Yes, there are deep, fundamental differences in these two candidates.

During his time, the only problem Exxon Eddie has had with Pharmaceuticals is that he wanted to stop their illegal sale by introducing this legislation:

Congressmen Ed Whitfield on Thursday introduced legislation that will help prevent prescription drug abuse. The legislation, entitled the National All Schedules Prescription Electronic Reporting Act (NASPER), would create a federal grant program to help establish or improve state-run prescription drug monitoring programs.

The legislation will give physicians the resources they need to treat patients while also giving law enforcement additional tools to prosecute individuals who are illegally using controlled substances. Similar legislation introduced by Whitfield passed the House last year.

http://whitfield.house.gov/iss…

Now this is all well and good. However, lets look at some of his other votes on Drugs:

Voted NO on military border patrols to battle drugs & terrorism.

Amendment to set up a task force on counter-terrorism and drug interdiction and allow military personnel to help patrol U.S. borders.

Bill HR 2586 ; vote number 2001-356 on Sep 25, 2001

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

The very Congressman that seeks to lecture us on Terrorism with the FISA Bill, and illegal drugs with the bill above voted against combatting both.

Voted NO on requiring negotiated Rx prices for Medicare part D.

Would require negotiating with pharmaceutical manufacturers the prices that may be charged to prescription drug plan sponsors for covered Medicare part D drugs.

Reference: Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act; Bill HR 4 (“First 100 hours”) ; vote number 2007-023 on Jan 12, 2007

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Of course, if prices are negotiated, Exxon Eddie and his buddies can’t fleece the American consumer and taxpayer.

Voted YES on limited prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients.

Medicare Prescription Drug and Modernization Act of 2003: Vote to adopt the conference report on the bill that would create a prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients. Starting in 2006, prescription coverage would be made available through private insurers to seniors. Seniors would pay a monthly premium of an estimated $35 in 2006. Individuals enrolled in the plan would cover the first $250 of annual drug costs themselves, and 25 percent of all drug costs up to $2,250. The government would offer a fallback prescription drug plan in regions were no private plans had made a bid.Over a 10 year time period medicare payments to managed care plans would increase by $14.2 billion. A pilot project would begin in 2010 in which Medicare would compete with private insurers to provide coverage for doctors and hospitals costs in six metropolitan areas for six years. The importation of drugs from Canada would be approved only if HHS determines there is no safety risks and that consumers would be saving money.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Hastert, R-IL; Bill HR.1 ; vote number 2003-669 on Nov 22, 2003

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Great job Eddie!! Lets limit the access to people who really need them!!

Voted NO on allowing reimportation of prescription drugs.

Pharmaceutical Market Access Act of 2003: Vote to pass a bill that would call for the Food and Drug Administration to begin a program that would permit the importation of FDA-approved prescription drugs from Australia, Canada, the European Union, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Lichtenstein, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and South Africa.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Gutknecht, R-MN; Bill HR.2427 ; vote number 2003-445 on Jul 24, 2003

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Again, profit lines, special interest contributors, and stock options!!

You see, at Ryan for Kentucky, we believe that the abuse of Prescription Drugs is a problem, but we believe it is a bigger problem when the people that actually need drugs cannot afford them. We believe these drugs should be cheaper for them, not more expensive.

We believe in trying to help people who are elderly and sick. We don’t think they should be held at the mercy of the Government or the Insurance Lobby because of their conditions. Most of all, unlike Exxon Eddie:

Whitfield voted for and the House passed, H.R. 6304, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 Amendments Act of 2008. This bill closes a terrorist loophole in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that requires American intelligence officers to obtain a warrant before intercepting terrorist communications abroad.

http://whitfield.house.gov/new…

We believe in the Constitution. From an email:

Later this week, the Senate will be considering passage of the compromise on the FISA Bill. Since many voters in the First Congressional District of Kentucky have contacted me wondering what my stance on this legislation is, I felt compelled to speak on this issue.

While I was in Washington on that terrible day of Sept. 11, 2001 when planes crashed into the World Trade Center and in Western Pennsylvania, and the Pentagon, I can understand the passion that has fueled this bill. Having said that, I must urge the Senate to reject this FISA compromise as proposed and passed by the House of Representatives with H.R. 6304.

There are several reasons why I feel this bill is unnecessary. First, I think that we have lost focus on the fact that a competent Administration could have actually gone a long way in preventing this tragedy. The Bush Administration was warned in advance of 9-11 and did nothing at the time to prevent it. I believe if the Bush Administration would have acted on the intelligence provided them, then the 9-11 tragedy could have been avoided through the laws that existed at the time.

I also believe this law is an extension of the Bush Administration’s attempts to politicize the Justice Department. Prosecuting entities are provided by the Constitution with checks and balances on which to operate. They already have very broad powers and if they found a credible threat would have no problem getting a warrant in a timely fashion.

Finally, I believe that FISA and this compromise are an abomination to the Constitution because it seeks to circumvent the checks and balances provided all of us by that sacred document. I strongly oppose giving the Telecom Corporations immunity when they knew they were breaking the law, when the Bush Administration asked them to break the law.

I saw where my opponent in this race, “Exxon Ed” Whitfield voted for this Legislation. I think it is pretty ironic when the very Republicans who lecture us regarding limiting the roll of the Federal Government propose, and push through, the House of Representatives a bill that vastly broadens the powers of the Federal Government. This is one issue on which Progressives, Moderates and Conservatives should all be able to agree. There are certain things on which none of us should ever compromise, and the Constitution is one thing on which I will never compromise as Representative of Kentucky’s First District.

Now, we need you to believe in us. Support grassroots Democrats in Kentucky’s First District and help us with the resources we need, and we will work hard and expand our Congressional majorities. No amount is too small and is greatly appreciated!!:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Lets send Exxon Eddie to Florida where he lives!!

 

Former Montana Public Service Commissioner John Driscoll, who is waging a no-money campaign (literally) for Congress this year, likes his chances against GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg:

“I would say it’s a 50-50 chance going into the general election,” Driscoll told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday.

Here’s the game plan:

Driscoll said he expects Obama’s plan to run a campaign in Montana will drive up voter turnout among Democrats, which will help his campaign. And Driscoll said he thinks many Republicans are upset with the direction of the country who will be looking for different options and turn to him.

Driscoll says it is unfair to portray him as someone who is not campaigning, he is just doing it differently.

For instance, he is leaving this weekend for a backpacking trip in the Bob Marshall Wilderness or the Cabinet Wilderness. Along the way, he says, he will stop in coffee shops and talk to people.

Watch your back, Rehberg!

What’s burning in your blood?

Under the fold below, I’ve included a poll question that should yield some interesting results: “When did you start reading the Swing State Project?”

For me, it was back in 2005 just before the Paul Hackett campaign started gaining steam in OH-02. That feels like a lifetime ago!

Rasmussen (6/25, likely voters, 6/2 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 35 (35)

Big John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Yes, Cornyn is under 50, but the most important number in this race will be revealed by July 15: Noriega’s second quarter fundraising haul. If Noriega hasn’t started raising some serious money by now, he may not have the resources he needs to be competitive in the fall. It’s a tough reality, but we all know that winning a statewide race in Texas — especially against an incumbent — requires some major resources. We’ll soon find out if Noriega is on pace to amass the infrastructure he needs to close the gap.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-39 in the state.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (6/17-22, registered voters):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 45

Dick Zimmer (R-inc): 28

(MoE: ±4%)

This is local pollster Fairleigh Dickinson’s first shot at the New Jersey Senate race, and this is the biggest lead Lautenberg has seen in any poll since ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer became the GOP nominee. As much as we’d like to see the NRSC get bamboozled into pouring big money into New Jersey in the hopes of getting their one pickup here, these numbers indicate they may not bother with that.

45% can’t be a good sign for Lautenberg, although [insert moldy cliche about how all New Jersey residents hate all their politicians here]. The biggest news here may be that hardly anyone has any idea who Dick Zimmer is, which is surprising considering that he used to represent Congress from NJ-12 from 1990 to 1996, where he was the prime mover for Megan’s Law, and ran for the Senate in 1996. (I suppose 12 years is several lifetimes in politics.) Zimmer’s name recognition numbers are down near Bob Roggio territory: 16% favorable, 10% unfavorable. 44% have never heard of him, while 29% have heard of him but have no opinion.