John Frohnmayer says he is dropping his bid for the U.S. Senate.
Frohnmayer had planned to run as the Independent Party’s candidate in a three-way race against Republican Senator Gordon Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley.
But Frohnmayer said Tuesday he has had a tough time rounding up campaign money and grass-roots support.
This is great news for Democrat Jeff Merkley, as Frohnmayer was running a left-of-center campaign that included calls for the impeachment of President Bush and sharp criticism of his administration’s constitutional abuses.
Frohnmayer, who was chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts during the first Bush administration, might have been enough to tip the balance back to Smith in a close election.
One of the jobs of the head of the NRSC, the GOP’s campaign committee in the Senate, is to constantly wear a brave face and reassure the troops that everything is going OK on the electoral battlefield.
In a jaw-dropping interview with the Savannah Morning News, NRSC chair John Ensign defined the new ‘OK:’ not losing so many seats that the Democrats obtain a filibuster-proof majority.
The chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss will be part of the firewall the party wants to build against Democratic control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
U.S. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., set a minimum on the number of seats the party must control, 41. “The number that we get to is really, really important in the U.S. Senate,” he said. “That’s one of the reasons Saxby absolutely must hold his seat.”
In other words: the goal is to lose no more than eight seats (as they currently hold 49). And the GOP firewall contains Saxby Chambliss: a senator whose seat is universally defined as ‘safe’ by all major prognosticators.
In a move further calculated to disspirit Republican senators, Ensign also confessed the NRSC’s huge financial disadvantage:
“The Democratic Senatorial (Campaign) Committee will be able to take more risks. They’ll be able to take more shots in more places,” he said. “So we’ll have to target our money very carefully. What we won’t do is we won’t spend money in races that are going to win on their own, and we won’t spend money on races that can’t win.”
Hold on a second, Jim Gilmore and Steve Pearce… you don’t have to dig your own grave (and save!) yet, though. Ensign has some more helpful up-by-the-bootstraps advice:
He noted that he won his own Senate seat with less money than the incumbent he upset.
Now just because some of you might be saying, “Wait… the 2000 Senate race in Nevada was an open seat…” that doesn’t mean that imaginary lightning can’t strike twice. After all:
“It’s kind of like a sporting event. You play the game because the outcome is not assured,” he said.
According to the latest Rasmussen poll yesterday. link to polling info These poll numbers seem a bit iffy to me considering that Noriega was only 4 points down last month. In any event, Noriega still has another few days on Active Duty this week
As we all know, bad polling numbers can really suffocated national momentum. I do question these polling numbers and I will explain why.
Although last months numbers may have been a bit too optimistic.
The poll gives this information
Cornyn is supported by 86 percent of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72 percent of Democrats, down from 81 percent a month ago.
The Democrat leads among voters under 30, reflecting a nationwide trend. He is competitive among those who earn less than $40,000 a year. However, Cornyn has the advantage among adults over 30 and those with annual incomes topping $40,000.
Incumbents who poll below 50 percent are generally considered vulnerable. Cornyn has moved slightly above that threshold, but many of his colleagues remain in challenging races
Now of course this comes from Rasmussen so I see a little bias right there. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist except when it comes to Karl Rove, but maybe they even had bad numbers last month on purpose so they could balance them out with improved numbers this month and show the momentum was going back to Cornyn. After Cornyn voted against the New GI Bill and Rick has started receiving national attention I just do not buy these numbers. Maybe last months were out of whack, but I certainly see this as being less than 17 points. I think they can only go up.
Maybe he got some play from his crazy logic last week that the Global Climate Change bill would cost Texas 300k jobs. Mind you that gas prices have skyrocketed to over $4.00 while Cornyn and his Republican Cronies have been in Congress. That rise of gas prices certainly hasn’t cost the citizens of Texas any jobs right?
So as gas prices rise and Democrats are increasingly spending more money for the necessities with the status quo politics of the Republican adminstration, John Cornyn’s poll numbers mysteriously rise. I’m going to do what I can to make this and other races competitive.
Writing on the blog for Democrats in the Savannah area, someone named karen wrote:
Bill Gillespie has been talking to the DCCC … he may have a real chance of unseating Jack Kingston [in GA-01] … The huge increase in voter registration in Georgia this year is key.
The important thing we need to do is to turn out the vote in the primary. If Bill gets more votes in the primary than Jack, the DCCC will come down and do a poll … put him on the list of candidates they support.
The Georgia primary will be June 16 (a Monday? but I’m looking at the SOS page).
Karen, Bill, all the Democrats in Georgia, I wish you good luck. This district went for W by 66.3% and for the incumbent Repub in ’06 by 68.5%. But you never will win if you don’t try.
Other postings make clear that Georgia Democrats expect to benefit from much attention from the Obama campaign, with paid staff and Fellows and other volunteers, of course, working on voter registration all summer.
Looks like they have a great candidate, for this or almost any district.
Bill Gillespie of Chatham County served 23 years in the U.S. Army, retiring last year as a Lt. Colonel. In 2003, he served in Iraq … earning a Bronze Star.
Most recently, Gillespie worked as Army ROTC Program Director, charged with supervising programs at Georgia Southern University, Savannah State University, Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah College of Art & Design and St. Leo University. He also ran all of southeast Georgia’s Army Junior ROTC Programs.
Well, there you are. It’s southeast Georgia, from the Savannah suburbs to the Florida border. It’s where we need to win if we are going to purge the reichtwingers from our body politic. It won’t be easy, but it’s worth doing — and this race just may be worth watching this time around.
One of the most widely known axioms in modern politics is the belief in the “God Gap” which says, essentially, that the higher the frequency of church attendance, the higher the likelihood a person will vote Republican. Essentially it has declared Republicans as the party of the faithful and Democrats as the secular or athiest party.
Democrats have tried in recent years to reach out to religious voters in far more concrete ways, from forming a Faith in Action office in the DNC, to specialty political consulting firms forming to help Democrats do faith outreach. Candidates like Heath Shuler in North Carolina and Ted Strickland in Ohio were undeniably helped by this type of religious outreach and GOTV.
A recent study by the Henry Institute at Calvin College now reveals how the 2008 political religious map looks, and has some surprising and interesting findings about both religious voters partisanship and their evolving views on social issues. What’s also nice is how this study breaks voters down (unlike exit polls) by not just religious denomination but also orthodoxy. This is the type of study Democratic strategist should be looking at as they prepare their outreach.
The first point to take is that Evangelical partisanship has not changed in the last four years (still a 29% GOP advantage) and, though stagnating, has widened significantly since 1992.
This group, which represents a little more than a quarter of the electorate favored the Republican Party over the Democratic Party 48 percent to 32 percent in 1992, but now leans Republican 54 percent to 25 percent.
Republican’s now have this quarter-sized voting bloc firmly wrapped up, and the Democrats have thus far proved ineffective in their outreach. (Though it is perhaps a small victory that the gap has not widened.)
Better news: Mainline Protestants, about 20% of the electorate, have made a massive swing to the left. Alienated by the extremism of the Religious Right, Mainlines are for the first time in modern history, siding with the Democrats.
Historically, Mainline Protestants have been the mainstay of the Republican coalition. Even as late as 1992, Mainline Protestants were heavily Republican in their partisan identifications (50 percent Republican to 32 percent Democratic). But, in 2008, Mainline Protestants are for the first time since at least the beginning of the New Deal more Democratic than Republican in their partisan identifications (46 percent to 37 percent, respectively).
Roman Catholics, again about a quarter of the electorate are again the ultimate swing vote. Catholics have sided with the popular vote winner in every presidential election since Truman.
In 2008, a plurality of non-Hispanic Catholics remain Democratic in their partisan identifications-but only barely so. As a result, non-Hispanic Roman Catholics (whose total numbers are similar to that of Mainline Protestants) continue to remain the largest religious tradition most evenly divided in their partisan inclinations and most likely to be “up for grabs” in the 2008 presidential election (38 percent Republican; 41 percent Democratic).
Now there is a growing theory that there really is no Catholic vote. The argument goes that Catholics tend to vote along socio-economic lines (or ethnic lines) but their vote is rarely directly tied to their Catholicism. It is important to note here though that those self-identifying as traditional Catholics due side with Republicans.
On social issues there is again mixed news for the Dems. Since 2004, the support for environmental regulation has dropped. This is surprising with the recent “Creation-Care” theology of leaders like Rev. Richard Cizik and Joel Hunter. Younger evangelicals too have been thought to have been better on the environment. I tend to agree with Mark Silk who said,
The explanation has to do, I think, with the way the question is asked: “Strict rules to protect the environment are necessary even if they cost jobs or result in higher prices.” In other words, less support for environmental regulation may simply reflect higher economic anxieties…and not all groups show this tendency. Jews, Blacks, and Latinos all have become more environmentalist, by modest amounts, and the unaffiliated, by a hefty amount. Atheists and Agnostics are not the most pro-environment group in the country, at 81 percent. Environmentalism is their religion.
Allowing a woman to solely decide on abortion is supported by 53 percent of the entire religious sample, as opposed to 40 percent against. And by a margin of 47 percent to 41 percent, respondents do not agree that gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry legally. Surprisingly for some, Catholics support abortion rights 51-43, and are almost evenly split on gay marriage, 43 percent against and 45 percent for. It is this growing demographic change on gay marriage that should certainly frighten social conservatives (although studies show that young people are more pro-life than their parents.
Finally only one group now fully supports the US Occupation of Iraq: evangelicals, 57 percent to 35 percent. Among them, the traditionalists support our having gone to war 64-27, while centrist and modernist evangelicals are barely in favor. All other groups are opposed. One could argue that the question of Iraq is now a religious question, with only the most conservative Christians supporting it. John McCain will win the far religious right vote with his saber-rattling with Iran and Iraq, however he risks losing the moderate Evangelical vote if he overplays his hand. Moderate evangelicals are in play for Obama in this election.
What an incredible Monday to be a part of the John Boccieri for U.S. Congress Campaign team. Yes, Politicos the game is officially on and Kirk Schuring wants every Democrat in Ohio’s Fighting 16th District to be at the Canton Greek Festival at 5 pm Friday and then to follow him on over to First Friday for a Hometown Welcome!
Sometimes, I have to sit a really ponder what goes through a politicians head to make them say some of the the things they say. This time the answer is easy…Kirk was “fluffing” for John McCain. Oh, what a great honor and opportunity to spew divisive hate language!
Read on for more details and don’t forget your popcorn and a cold one for the movie. You’ll want to watch it over and over again!
Republican Congressional Candidate Kirk Schuring Slurs Canton Residents in Ugly, Partisan Rant
COLUMBUS – Standing before a crowd of fellow Republicans at a “John McCain for President Rally” on Thursday, Republican congressional candidate Kirk Schuring launched into an ugly, partisan rant attacking the residents of Canton, Ohio.
In a newly released video of the June 5th event at Ashland Corner Park, Schuring tells his partisan audience:
“So the other thing I know is that Ashland County has a rich history and tradition of rallying around Republicans, and I was telling people earlier where I come from we could never have a rally like this in the center of Canton. If we did we might be shot at, but not in Ashland and that’s what makes you so great.”
The clip is available here. The full video is available here
“It is appalling to witness Kirk Schuring speaking with such venom and disdain toward the very individuals he is seeking to represent in Congress,” said Ohio Democratic Party Communications Director Alex Goepfert. “Kirk Schuring’s ugly, divisive, hyper-partisan comments do a terrible disservice to the residents of Canton and to all OhioansKirk Schuring and his campaign were apparently rather proud of his remarks. The following day, Schuring touts the “warm welcome” he received at the event in an email to supporters.
Below is the text of that newsletter.
Schuring for Congress Newsletter
151 Days Until Victory!
June 6, 2008
>From Our Community, For Our Community…
This was a busy week on the campaign trail. Our organization has expanded and we’re excited about the level of enthusiasm we’ve seen at events throughout the week.
As our organization continues to build, we’ve seen some changes with campaign staff as well. This past Monday Staci Hansel started on the campaign as Political Director and today is Gavin Blair’s final on the campaign before he moves back to Columbus. We’re excited to have Staci on board and I’m thankful for the hard work Gavin put in these many months on my behalf!
On Thursday night I spoke in Ashland County at a rally for John McCain and received a very warm welcome from local community members. Thanks to hard working folks at the Ashland County GOP for putting on a fantastic event.
Don’t forget to come out and join me tonight in downtown Canton at the Greek Festival at 5pm. After the Greek fest I’ll be heading over to Canton’s First Friday event.Thanks again for your continued support!
Kirk Schuring
Oh, my! You are winning hearts there Senator and your endorsement from the Canton Repository. HAH!
Now, don’t fade on me yet fans. There’s more to this whole story.What does State Senator Major John Boccieri think about all this?
For Immediate Release
June 9, 2008
Contact: Ian Walton, 330-754-0534
The Politics of Division is Wrong for America!
Senator Boccieri issued the following statement today regarding the release of video footage of Sen. Kirk Schuring’s comments in Ashland County today:
::One more time just to jog your memory!::
“While my opponent comments publicly about hispreferred constituency, I would be proud to serve in the Congress on behalf of every man, woman, and child in the 16th District regardless of geography, age, race, gender, or religious affiliation.
“Senator Schuring’s partisan comments are the type of political ideology that is dividing our nation. At the end of the day the race for this seat, shouldn’t be about Democrats, Republicans or Independents, red states or blue states, conservatives or liberals, but about America. Our nation needs strong leadership to help turn around our failing economy, bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon, and move away from our dependence on foreign oil.
“As for my campaign, we will have rallies, town hall meetings, and events in every corner of this district, not only where it is politically comfortable, but in every region. It is important that we all come together to help change America.”
Thank you for setting the record straight, again, Major Boccieri! We have put up with enough hate-mongering, war-mongering, greed and discrimination to last a lifetime. The last person Ohio’s 16th Congressional District needs in Congress is Kirk Schuring.
There has been some nervousness recently surrounding Yarmuth’s re-election prospects, given Northup’s early fundraising strength and Barack Obama’s weaknesses in Kentucky (even though he actually beat Clinton in KY-03). These poll numbers should certainly calm the nerves a bit.
While Yarmuth should never underestimate Northup’s abilities, this is a reassuring sign that the ground has indeed shifted in Louisville, where Northup has built a long resume of crushing Democratic hopes cycle after cycle until her defeat in 2006.
The pollster himself acknowledges that even this is “not great news” for Northup, but sounds a predictable note of optimism for her chances despite a national environment that “gotten substantially worse for Republicans since the beginning of the year”.
The other day I commented that while Kirk Schuring, the GOP candidate for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ralph Regula, has not been particularly impressive, he hasn’t made any major mistakes so far.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) today circulated a video of GOP House candidate Kirk Schuring, at a rally in Ashland, Ohio, saying “we might be shot at” if the rally had been held in the downtown area of nearby Canton.
Schuring was speaking at a John McCain rally, according to the DCCC.
“Where I come from, we could never have a rally like this in the center of Canton. If we did, we might be shot at,” Schuring said. “But not in Ashland, and that’s what makes you so great.”
Here’s the video:
Advice to Schuring: Don’t insult the population anchor of the district that you’re trying to represent while off campaigning in other areas and think you can get away with it in the YouTube age.
A Choice – More of the Same or Something Different
On November 4th, voters will have a choice to make, not only in the race for President between Senator John McCain (More of the Same) and Senator Barack Obama (Something Different), but also in each of the contested races for seats in the US Congress.
Voters have to look no further than two recent congressional roll call votes to see a contrast between the Democratic and Republican parties. On May 21st, with solid Democratic support, HR 6049 passed on a 263 for / 160 against vote. HR 6049 provides energy, business and personal tax breaks totaling $55.5 billion to spur the production of non-fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, stimulate business activity and help homeowners and the working poor. In order to offset the costs of HR 6049, the bill tightens accounting rules on multinational corporations and eliminates certain offshore tax shelters and loopholes utilized by some US hedge fund managers. Most important, HR 6049 does not add any additional burden to the national debt.
Most encouraging, HR 6049 will have a positive effect right here in north central Pennsylvania with funding to spur renewable energy sources from crops (including corn based ethanol) and by providing incentives for the production of non-corn based ethanol. Both of these options will support the alternative fuels industry that is coming to north central Pennsylvania creating jobs and investment in the 5th Congressional District. Additional language authorizes tax breaks for investment in coal gasification technology, another process that could bring jobs and investment to revitalize the coal industry in north central Pennsylvania.
Because HR 6049 invests in domestically produced alternative energy and offers great benefits to north central Pennsylvania, I would have voted, along with 16 other members of the Pennsylvania delegation, to support the legislation. The 3 dissenting votes cast from the Pennsylvania delegation came from Republicans John Peterson, Bill Shuster and Joseph Pitts.
The Republicans offered alternative language that removed the tighter accounting rules to eliminate the offshore tax shelters and loopholes and included language that added $50 billion for a temporary fix for the Alternative Minimum Tax. The Republican alternative shifted the entire $55.5 billion cost for HR 6049 plus the $50 billion for the temporary fix of the AMT directly to the national debt. Since a main theme of my campaign is fiscal responsibility and the elimination of the national debt, I would have voted against the alternative language. The Republican alternative failed 201 for / 220 against with all 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voting for the Republican alternative language. TRANSLATION: All 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voted to add an additional $105.5 billion to the national debt which is closing in on $10 trillion.
Perhaps most disturbing was the following statement made by Rep. Jeb Hensarling R-Texas in opposing HR 6049. “Under the Democrats control of Congress, we have seen prices at the pump go up about $1.50 a gallon. They have tried to sue their way to lower gas prices. Now they are trying to tax their way to lower gas prices. Yet they never think about producing American energy in America.”.
WHAT WAS THAT? The entire purpose of HR 6049 is to spur the production of alternative fuels produced right here in the United States of America, creating jobs, investment and decreasing our dependence on foreign oil. Perhaps it is time for Rep. Hensarling and his cohorts to acknowledge that foreign policy failures by the Bush administration destabilized the Middle East which is THE reason oil is now $140 a barrel and gas is over $4 a gallon.
The votes on HR 6049 and the Republican alternative language that would have increased the national debt by $105.5 billion are prime examples of what voters must consider when they vote in November. Maybe the choice isn’t between More of the Same or Something Different. Perhaps the real choice comes down to More of the Same or Something Better!
Campaign Highlights for the Week:
Friday morning, Campaign Chairman Henry Guthrie and I stopped in Lock Haven to participate in a candidate forum that was sponsored by Hub’s Home Oxygen Supply. The event was broadcast live on the radio with Glenn Thompson joining me to take questions for about an hour. The on site audience consisted of customers and employees of Hub’s Home Oxygen and 10th and 11th grade students from a nearby high school. Questions ranged from I-80 tolling / highway and bridge funding, health care reform, our stance on Second Amendment rights, the war in Iraq and who we support for president.
Later Friday and on Saturday, Henry and I attended the Democratic State Committee meeting in Harrisburg. During our time at the state committee meeting we spoke with several people including former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Ruth Rudy who ran for the 5th District seat in 1996, PA-16 candidate Bruce Slater and Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll among others.
It was also encouraging to hear strong statements about the Democratic Party unifying behind Senator Barack Obama as our candidate for President. These messages came from Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Bob Casey and State Chairman T. J. Rooney. With our party unified we offer voters Something Better on November 4th.
Mark B. McCracken
Your Candidate For Congress
————————————————————————————————–
This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth
Loading ...
