Swing State Project

We’re delighted to announce that long-time Swing State Project community member Crisitunity is joining us as a contributing editor. As many of you know, Crisitunity’s specialty is longer-form quantitative analysis, examples of which include the home-grown “PVI-Voting Pattern Index” and this excellent diary comparing the racial/ethnic characteristics of members of Congress and their districts. Expect to see more pieces along these lines right here on the front page.

I’ll give our newest contributing editor a chance to introduce himself, but for now, please welcome Crisitunity aboard!

Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal (5/27-29, likely voters):

Steve Pearce (R): 45

Heather Wilson (R): 39

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

The last time we checked the pulse of this primary, Pearce was leading Wilson by three points in a SurveyUSA poll from earlier this month.

One important thing to note, however, is that this poll was taken before Pete Domenici’s last-minute endorsement of Wilson, his long-time political pupil. That may sway a few undecideds, but will it be enough?

Primary: June 3rd

(Hat-tip: NM FBIHOP)

Finally, some good news for Republicans from Rasmusssen (5/28, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 47

John Kennedy (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Some folks might remember a previous Rasmussen poll that purported to show Landrieu leading by a 55-39 margin. The only problem? That poll didn’t actually exist. Its findings were posted erroneously by Rasmussen and actually represented a Virginia Senate poll with the wrong labels attached to them.

Of all the public polls of this race that we’ve seen, only the one conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research showed Landrieu with a significant lead (50%-38%).

There’s no breathing easy in Louisiana yet.

Bonus finding: The same round of polling shows McCain leading Obama by 50-41 in the state.

Latest LA Senate poll from Rasumssen shows Landrieu with a narrow 47-44 lead over Kennedy.  Since this may be the first poll in this race from a major firm, it suggests that we’ll have a real fight on our hands for this one.  Guess those double digit lead polls actually were too good to be true.

Don Young filed for re-election as Alaska’s deadline neared opening up a knock down drag out battle with Sean Parnell for the GOP nod.  Young’s announcement was frankly weird.  He admitted to be aggressive and a bully in Washington but said he got along with Alaskans unless they crossed him.  It sounded like bad dialogue from one of those really old westerns.

Young’s campaign site is further testament to his overblown ego.  While he uses the headline “Congressman for All Alaska”, Young freely admits that he only represents the people who vote for him and not those who voted for the other candidates.  I guess he’s not the Congressman for All Alaskans.

Then new headlines emerge: “No one has done more.  No one can do more.” All this while some truly magnificent pictures of Alaska scenery stream by in the background.  Folks, the site is borderline delusional and has just a hint of borderline blasphemy to it.  Don Young did not create mountains and glaciers and all these neat thins.  IIRC, no people either.  Guess he gets along better with the scenery than with the people.

Young’s announcement was expected and it may not have been the craziest item over the wekend. That probably goes to Amendment 48, a proposed set of changes to the Colorado Constitutionthat would change the definition of “person” to include “any human being from the moment of fertilization.”  The Amendment will be on the November 4 ballot having already survived a Colorado Court challenge and received 103,000 valid signatures.

Prominent backers of the Amendment include the Colorado Springs based Focus on the Family and the Catholic Church.  The Amendment would allow what the Denver Post blithely called the “preborn” to due and be sued just like real or corporate persons. The Denver Post says it “would guarantee the pre-born the right to life, liberty sand due process of law.”

Clearly, the Amendment would jeopardize the status of abortion and abortion providers within Colorado while opening up mew forms of employment for Colorado lawyers.  Mom, Dad, and the pre-born plus the prosecutor.  How expensive and nuts.  In the hands of a zealous prosecutor or a wingnut lawyer the number of suits against mom-to-be (or is it mom?) who drinks, drives fast or even over indulges on junk food is clearly in the cards.

I also wonder whether “pre-borns” would count in Colorado’s census and reapportionment (local) issues.  In 2006 Colorado had 70,737 borths giving the “pre-born” a population of 53,000.  Averaging over 5 years, the number would be 51,000.  How would you like to lose a Congressman to the pre-born? (And yes it sounds like the pre-cogs from that Tom Cruise picture of a few years ago).

The strategy is to make abortion this year’s anti-gun or anti-gay theme to turn out fundies in Colorado.  The state’s three Republican Congress critters are Tom Tancredo, Marilyn Musgrave and Doug Lamborn who flirts with the lowest score in the country on the Progressive Punch scale.  Lamborn may not be sufficiently colorful enough as he seems to be generating some serious opposition.

Colorado and Alaska are tied in, of course, by the use of Mt. denali as photo footage background by Senate candidate Bob Schaffer.

The Boston Globe is reporting that top Republican recruit Jim Ogonowski fell 82 valid signatures short of the required number to place on the primary ballot. Ogo’s spokesman says he has the signatures but they haven;t been reported yet.  Ogo’s opponent says he’ll mount a challenge if Ogo breaks the barrier. Fun, fun, fun.

Meanwhile, back on the ranch, New Mexico’s Pajamas Pete Domenici is endorsing his protege, Heather Wilson, for the Senate calling Wilson one of the smartest people he knows.  A few years ago, this would have been a touching and meaningful tribute.  Now?  Who knows.

Background on the Staten Island situation.  A City Council member makes $112,000 for a part time job.  State Senators make an official $79,500 that expands routinely to $92,000.  Assembly members are more likely to take home $79,500 although many bring home $92 K

.  Given the costs of a second home or the possibility of part time legal work, the $165 salary really is not too attractive.

UPDATE II: Now it’s official. Gilmore wins a squeaker against Marshall, taking 50.3% of the convention votes. It’s hilarious that this nominating convention, which Gilmore partisans fought tooth and nail for, very nearly killed his candidacy.

UPDATE: Bearing Drift and Raising Kaine say that Gilmore won by about 70 votes out of 4500 cast. That’s not official yet, though.

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This could be hilarious. The Virginia GOP is meeting today to nominate its sacrificial lamb candidate for the Senate race against former Gov. Mark Warner (D). Supporters of failed former Gov. Jim Gilmore pushed for the convention instead of a primary in order to elbow the “too moderate” Rep. Tom Davis from the race. That’s the story so far.

But things can’t always be the way you want them to be. James Martin over at Raising Kaine is liveblogging the nominating convention, and reports that state Del. Bob Marshall is beating Gilmore in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 10th, and 11th districts so far, with Gilmore posting leads only in the 2nd and 9th districts. Additionally, Martin estimates that “50-55% of the delegates are wearing Bob Marshall for Senate stickers”.

It sounds like Jim Gilmore is about to get punk’d again. Now, I’d prefer that Gilmore and his sky-high negatives survived the convention for a slam-dunk Mark Warner win in November, but this is still amusing nevertheless.

Benenson Strategy Group for Tim Walz (5/17-19, likely voters):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 57

Dick Day (R): 22

Undecided: 21

Tim Walz (D-inc): 60

Brian Davis (R): 20

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Wow. If this isn’t evidence of a seriously depressed GOP base, I don’t know what is. This one isn’t even going to be close.

(H/T: MN Publius)

Let’s try something different: In comments, tell us what congressional district you live in. While you’re at it, why don’t you describe the district for us, too. And if you don’t live in a U.S. congressional district, tell us about whatever legislative district(s) you do live in.

UPDATE: This has been a super-fun thread so far. To kick it up a notch, I’ve created a Frappr map for SSP community members. This will give us a visual representation of where everyone lives. You can click below to add your location (nothing more specific than a town name or ZIP code is used). Go for it!

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I’m not sure if this is a case of EMILY’s List jumping the shark, drinking the gender essentialist Kool-Aid, or throwing Steve Cohen under the bus (maybe all three cliches at once?), but EMILY’s List has endorsed Nikki Tinker in the primary in TN-09 rather than incumbent progressive Steve Cohen.

EMILY’s List offered the following rationale:

“This is an extraordinary circumstance for us. We don’t make these decisions lightly,” said EMILY’s List spokeswoman Ramona Oliver. “Nikki ran a strong race in 2006 has put a strong race together in 2008, and she’s the only woman in this race.”

Cohen’s response was:

Cohen said he was somewhat surprised by the endorsement, citing his support and ‘A’ rating from the abortion-rights group Planned Parenthood. “It’s unfortunate that the women who give money and trust to EMILY’s List are not going to see their money going against Republicans, but that their money is going to used against a champion of choice,” Cohen said.

And Cohen’s campaign manager got more to the point!

“Steve Cohen doesn’t have the proper plumbing for EMILY’s List. His record as a state senator and congressman doesn’t mean anything to EMILY’s List because he’s not the right gender,” said Cohen campaign manager Jerry Austin.

The race in TN-09 is a curious confluence of gender and race; Steve Cohen is a Jewish white guy who represents a district that’s almost 60% African-American (who emerged from the primary via a split black vote). This is the seat that used to be represented by Harold Ford, Jr., so with Cohen a member of the Progressive Caucus and sporting a Progressive Punch score of 95%, he’s a big improvement over Ford, who was consistently the least liberal member of the CBC.

By contrast, Tinker (who is African-American and, obviously, female) is running as the apparently more conservative option (and, presumably, one who would therefore be less representative of the views of her D+18 district). Tinker’s background is in corporate law, specializing in “labor relations,” first for large firm Ford & Harrison and then for the general counsel for Memphis-based Northwest Airlines affiliate Pinnacle Airways.

For what it’s worth, a poll from a few weeks ago showed Cohen beating Tinker by a gaudy 63-11 margin, so unless it’s intended simply as a thumb in the eye to Cohen, it may be too little too late for them (although the primary isn’t until August 7).

Why a thumb in the eye right now? Cohen may have a frowny face on their good/bad chart as a result of his May 10 gaffe where he used a sexually loaded cinematic allusion to urge Hillary Clinton to exit stage right:

“Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub, and Sen. Clinton has had a remarkable career and needs to move to the next step, which is helping elect the Democratic nominee,” Cohen said.

Cohen rightly expressed his regrets over the comparison later, but is it an offense that really justifies EMILY’s List diverting its resources away from the general election task of beating Republicans and their decidedly non-feminist agenda?

Oh this is good.

Last night we brought the news to you that the Staten Island GOP selected Frank Powers, a long-toothed local party supporter with no electoral experience to run in Vito Fossella’s place this November. Presumably, Powers’ personal wealth played heavily in the decision. One GOP source told the Staten Island Advance that Powers plans to spend $500K from his own pockets, and raise the same amount. I guess with the NRCC as broke as it is, a self-funder does have some allure.

But all is clearly not well in GOPville. Brooklyn Republicans, who endorsed Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio last week, are miffed and dismayed with the selection of Powers:

The Democrats’ pick, Councilman Mike McMahon, is “formidable,” [Brooklyn GOP Chair Craig] Eaton said, and he’s not sure about Powers because the two have never met. That is part of the problem.

“I’m getting a lot of calls from district leaders who are very, very upset,” Eaton said. “I’m upset and digusted. Until yesterday at 3 p.m., I had never heard (of Powers).

“This is the only congressional seat in the [city] of New York that the Republican Party has,” Eaton continued. “They had three weeks to come up with a viable candidate. After three weeks, for someone to come in at the last minute and become the candidate kind of concerns me.”

Eaton went on to add that it’s “possible, but not probable” that the Brooklyn GOP might throw its backing behind Atanasio in a primary. Whatever the case, Brooklyn Republicans clearly think the situation stinks. Me? I’m lovin’ it.