June 3rd Poll Closing Times, Key Races & Predictions

As James detailed last week, there are a ton of important primaries tonight. Here’s when the polls close, state by state, along with the key races in each (all times Eastern):

8pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Alabama (AL-02 D & R; AL-05 R)

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Jersey (NJ-Sen D; NJ-03 R; NJ-07 R)

9pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Mexico (NM-Sen R; NM-01 D & R; NM-02 D & R; NM-03 D)

10pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Iowa (IA-03 D)

11pm:

&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp California (CA-04 R)

Please post your predictions in the comments!

We’d also be very grateful if you could give us links to good sites which will carry the results. Thanks!

(Poll closing times courtesy The Green Papers.)

Conniver’s June Federal Race Projections

I’ve been going through the Federal Races and have been deciding on my opinion on each of the races.

I did this by myself last cycle and did fairly well.

I had the democrats winning back the house and Senate. 32 seats in the house and 51 seats in the Senate.

I predicted the house correctly with the exception of Maffei, Madrid, Massa, and Duckworth who I had winning and Boyda and Shea Porter losing.

I also had the Senate Victories correct with the exception of Virgina and Tennessee. I had Harold Ford Jr. winning and Jim Webb losing.

I also had us winning those 3 special elections in 2008.

In my own personal sheet that I have been doing for 2008, I had before revision a 29 seat pickup for the Democrats in the House and a 7 Seat pickup in the Senate and a 308-230 Obama victory. After revising my lists today, I have expanded my victories to a level I honestly never thought was possible before. However after going through each one of these races I believe you can defend each and everyone of them.

I currently have a 37 seat pickup for the democrats with 4 congressional loses and 41 wins. And a 9 Seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate. With an Obama Victory of 311-227 victory.

This isn’t really done on raw numbers but more on my feel for the national mood and my predictions of how the general election will unfold. My list will no doubt change a lot in the next few months (especially when he picks a VP) however this is what I believe would happen if events fold out in the next few months as I think. Namely an Obama Thumping of John McCain.

 

These are the Races which I consider Democratic victories if I Extrapolate my predicted outcomes in the general (National mood, state, and outlook towards the Presidential Race):

1) Alabama 2nd Congressional  Open (Everett) Bobby Bright

2) Alaska At-Large Congressional Don Young (contested primary) Ethan Berkowitz

3) Arizona 1st Congressional Open (Renzi) Ann Kirkpatrick

4) California 4th Congressional Open (Doolittle) Charlie Brown

5) California 26th Congressional David Dreier Russ Warner

6) Colorado 4th Congressional Maryiln Musgrave Besty Markey

7) Conneticut 4th Congressional Chris Shays Jim Himes

8) Florida 13th Congressional Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings

9) Florida 21st Congressional Lincoln Diaz-Balart Raul Martinez

10) Florida 24th Congressional Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas

11) Idaho 2nd Congressional Bill Sali Walter Minnick

12) Illinois 10th Congressional Mark Kirk Dan Seals

13) Illinois 11th Congressional Open (Weller) Debbie Halvorson

14) Illinois 18th Congressional Open (LaHood) Colleen Callahan

15) Michigan 7th Congressional Tim Walberg Mark Schauer

16) Michigan 9th Congressional Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters

17) Minnesota 2nd Congressional John Kline Steve Sarvi

18) Minnesota 3rd Congressional Open (Ramstead) Ashwin Madia

19) Missouri 6th Congressional Sam Graves Kay Barnes

20) Missouri 9th Congressional Open (Hulshof) TBA

21) Nebraska 2nd Congressional Lee Terry Jim Esch

22) Nevada 2nd Congressional Dean Heller Jill Derby

23) Nevada 3rd Congressional Jon Porter Dina Titus

24) New Jersey 3rd Congressional Open (Saxton) John Alder

25) New Jersey 5th Congressional Scott Garrett Dennis Shulman

26) New Jersey 7th Congressional Open (Ferguson) Linda Stender

27) New Meixco 1st Congressional Open (Wilson) Martin Heinrich

28) New Mexico 2nd Congressional Open (Pearce) Harry Teague

29) New York 13th Congressional Open (Fossella) Mike McMahon

30) New York 25th Congressional Open (Walsh) Dan Maffei

31) New York 26th Congressional Open (Reynolds) Jon Powers

32) New York 29th Congressional Randy Kuhl Eric Massa

33) North Carolina 8th Congressional Robin Hayes Larry Kissell

34) Ohio 1st Congressional Steve Chabot Steve Driehaus

35) Ohio 2nd Congressional Jean Schmidt(I had mean Jean winning last time I think Obama helps Wulsin enough to get the win) Victoria Wulsin

36) Ohio 15th Congressional Open (Pryce) Mary Jo Killroy

37) Ohio 16th Congressional Open (Regula) John Boccieri

38) Virginia 2nd Congressional Thelma Drake Glenn Nye

39) Virginia 11th Congressional Open (Davis) TBA

40) Washington 8th Congressional Dave Reichert Darcy Burner

41) Wyoming At Large Congressional Open (Cubin) Gary Trauner

Races to watch:

1) Arizona 3rd Congressional John Shadegg Bob Lord

2) California 42nd Congressional Gary Miller Ed Chau

3) California 46th Congressional Dana Rohrabacher Debbie Cook

4) Florida 8th Congressional Ric Keller Charlie Stuart

5) Florida 9th Congressional Gus Bilarakis Bill Mitchell

6) Florida 18th Congressional Illeana Ros-Lehtinen Annette Taddeo

7) Florida 25th Congressional Mario Diaz-Balart Joe Garcia

8) Illinois 6th Congressional Peter Roskam Jill Morganthaler

9) Illinois 13th Congressional Judy Biggert Scott Harper

10) Illinois 15th Congressional Tim Johnson Steve Cox

11)  Minnesota 6th Congressional Michele Bachmann Elwiyn Tinklenberg

12) Ohio 14th Congressional Steve Latourette Bill O’Neil

13) Pennslyvania 15th Congressional Charlie Dent Sam Bennett

14) South Carolina 2nd Congressional Joe Wilson Rob Miller

15) Texas 10th Congressional Michael McCAul Larry Doherty

16) Texas 7th Congressional John Culberson Michael Skelly

17) Virginia 5th Congressional Virgil Goode Tom Perriello

18) West Virginia 2nd Congressional Shelly Capito Anne Barth

19) Maryland 1st Congressional Open (Gilchrest) Frank Kratovil

Democratic Loses:

1) Florida 16th Congressional Tim Mahoney (Don’t know his opponent is but he barely beat Negron with Mark Foley’s name on the ballot)

2) Kentucky 3rd Congressional John Yarmuth Anne Northup

3) Pennslyvania 10th Congressional Chris Carney Chris Hackett

4) Texas 22nd Congressional Nick Lampson Pete Olson

Potential Democratic Loses

1) Alabama 5th Congressional Open (Cramer) Parker Griffith

2) Arizona 8th Congressional Giffords Randy Graff

3) California 11th Congressional McNerney Dean Andel

4) Kansas 2nd Congressional Boyda Jim Ryun

5) New Hampshire 1st Congressional Shea-Porter Jeff Bradley

6) Oregon 5th Congressional Open (Hooley) Kurt Schrader

Overall Dem +37

111th Congress

Democrats  273

Republicans 162

62.75% controlled by Dems

Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

Overall Dem +60

111th Congress

Democrats 296

Republicans 139

68.05% controlled by Dems



Senatorial

Democratic Pickups

1) Virgina Open (Warner) Warner

2) New Mexico Open (Dominici) Udall

3) New Hampshire Sunnunu Sheehan

4) Colorado Open (Allard) Udall

5) Alaska Stevens Begich

6) Minnesota Coleman Franken

7) North Carolina Dole Hagan

8) Mississippi Wicker Musgrove

9) Oregon Smith Merkley

Potential Democratic Pickups

1)  Maine Collins Allen

2) Kentucky McConnell Lunsford

3) Texas Cornyn Noreiga

4) Nebraska Open(Hagel) Klebb

5) Kansas Roberts Slattery

Potential Democratic Loses

1) Louisiana Landreui Kennedy

Overall Democrat +9

111th Congress

Democrats 60

Republicans 40

Filibuster Proof Majority

60% Dem Controlled

Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

Overall Democrat +14

111th Congress

Democrats 65

Republicans 35

65% Dem Controlled



Presidential

State Obama McCain Electoral Votes

California Dem 55

Texas** Rep 34

New York Dem 31

Florida* Rep 27

Illinois Dem 21

Pennsylvania* Dem 21

Ohio* Dem 20

Michigan* Dem 17

Georgia** Rep 15

North Carolina* Rep 15

New Jersey** Dem 15

Virginia* Dem 13

Massachusetts Dem 12

Washington Dem 11

Indiana* Rep 11

Tennessee Rep 11

Missouri* Rep 11

Arizona Rep 10

Maryland Dem 10

Wisconsin** Dem 10

Minnesota Dem 10

Colorado* Dem 9

Alabama Rep 9

Louisiana** Rep 9

South Carolina Rep 8

Kentucky Rep 8

Oregon** Dem 7

Oklahoma Rep 7

Connecticut Dem 7

Iowa** Dem 7

Mississippi** Rep 6

Arkansas Rep 6

Kansas Rep 6

Utah Rep 5

Nevada* Dem 5

New Mexico* Dem 5

West Virginia Rep 5

Nebraska Rep 4(Rep)/1(Dem)

Idaho Rep 4

Maine Dem 4

New Hampshire* Rep 4

Hawaii Dem 4

Rhode Island Dem 4

Montana** Rep 3

Deleware Dem 3

South Dakota Rep 3

Alaska* Dem 3

North Dakota Rep 3

Vermont Dem 3

District of Columbia Dem 3

Wyoming Rep 3

Obama 311 McCain 227 total 538

*denotes First Tier Battleground

**denotes Second Tier Battleground

Some comments on the Congressional races first off Florida, Michigan,Minnesota,Ohio,Nebraska and Illinois are extremely hard to determine at this point.

Michigan, and Florida because I have no idea if Obama can win Florida and bring up some of these congressional elections who need a nudge over the top and Michigan because I need Obama to perform their like a Democratic President is expected to (in my rankings I’m assuming he can and I honestly think he’s going to make Florida a real serious race).

Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Illinois are all about Obama coatails. I think Obama wins us the congressional district with Omaha in it because I see a huge victory their for Obama and its one electoral vote. And all the races in Minnesota and Illinois except MN-03 and Il-11 which I think we win either way, depend heavily on how big of numbers Obama racks up. All the Ohio districts except Mary Jo Killroy depend on Obama winning Ohio as well and if he can give us a more then 51-49 margin.(53-47 would do it for the all those congressmen and its what I’m assuming he wins by in the end)

Missouri I think is the race that goes down to the wire, I have McCain winning in an Obamaesque fashion in the state primary. But I think its enough to win those two seats.

Virginia Obama just needs to win and the two seats I have democrats winning Davis and Drake, go into the democratic column. (Davis will go dem either way)

Also if you notice I have Obama doing very well in the West. I think this is where Obama coattails will be strongest and will move us to victories in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada. While he won’t win us Wyoming and Idaho on the Presidential level, he will drive democratic turnout enough and in combination with a bad incumbent in Idaho and a good candidate in Wyoming, I see two victories in these blood red states.

I have Alaska going hard hard democratic if you notice. I have us winning the Senate,house and electoral votes. I think Stevens gets indicted after he’s nominated and they are screwed because they won’t be able to get his name off the ballot. I think we can win all three if Obama goes to the state once after Stevens get indicted.

In regards to the Senatorial race fairly simple, 7 are pretty much assuming we win the top 4 gimme races and the two tossups in blue states (Oregon and Minnesota) I think Stevens goes down in Alaska and black turnout in Mississippi gives Musgrove a big win. North Carolina i have us wining based on some of the polling and I think Obama will drive the black vote up and could potentially win the state and the Senate Seat for the democrats.

Thoughts comments?

update:I changed the Missouri 9th race to TBA as their are two legit contenders for the democratic nod and denoted the contested primary in Alaska At Large.

Does anyone know who Mahoney’s opponent is, I couldn’t find it.

update two: changing races based on tonight’s results, just plugging in the primary winners

NM-Sen: A Photo Finish

SurveyUSA (5/30-6/1, likely and actual voters, 5/12-14 in parens):

Steve Pearce (R): 48 (49)

Heather Wilson (R): 47 (46)

Undecided: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Wilson leads among early voters by a point, but that’s well within the margin of error. With polls closing tomorrow night, this one is looking like a nailbiter.

But it sure isn’t looking like a nailbiter in November (registered voters):

Tom Udall (D): 60 (60)

Steve Pearce (R): 35 (36)

Tom Udall (D): 60 (61)

Heather Wilson (R): 36 (35)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

IL-11: Halvorson Leads Ozinga in New Poll

Anzalone-Liszt Research for Debbie Halvorson (5/18-22, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43

Martin Ozinga (R): 32

Jason Wallace (G): 6

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Despite this being an R+1.1 district, Democrats hold a 44%-33% generic ballot advantage over Republicans, and a 41%-35% advantage in partisan self-identification.

Certainly not a bad place to start for Halvorson. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

A Democratic bench…in Wyoming?!

(This was posted in reply to Andy Dufresne in the recent WY-AL topic, but I thought this topic might merit its own entry.)

In order to build a bench in Wyoming, we’re going to have to start helping Democrats (fundraising and otherwise) to build strong positive reputations in the state, even if they have no chance of winning.  I seriously doubt that Rothfuss can win against Enzi short of a scandal (and even with a scandal it’d be hard as heck), but I believe he’s the kind of fresh new Democrat that the party could use.  Running for Senate as a scientist and policy wonk concerned about science policy–that’s an admirable goal.  It’s almost guaranteed to be insufficient to put him over the top, sure, but we’ve gotta start building a Democratic brand somewhere.

Trauner’s strong chance at the House seat and Freudenthal’s popular governorship are a good groundwork on which to start.

As for Nick Carter and Keith Goodenough (running against Barrasso) and Al Hamburg (also running against Enzi), I don’t know enough about them.  But–no offense to them–and I’d love to hear about anything interesting that they’re doing!

(Granted, I’d rather people who aren’t lawyers or career politicians to run for office, because (1) I think legislatures deal with very practical issues that people of other professional backgrounds might be better suited to manage, and (2) I don’t like it when the Republicans can point at us and say that we’re a bunch of trial lawyers, even if they’ve got their own load of trial lawyers on their side anyway.)

And just ’cause I think it’s worth posting here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/Ro…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Progress Report — June 2nd, 2008

The upcoming week is going to be a busy week of listening and learning.  I have 3 important meetings to attend that will give me the chance to discuss important issues in the north central region.

On Monday June 2nd, I am scheduled to meet with Kirk Johnson to discuss issues surrounding the Allegheny National Forest.  Mr. Johnson is the founder of Friends of Allegheny Wilderness and he contacted me several weeks back to request a meeting to discuss the future of the Allegheny National Forest.  I have been a supporter of the PA Wilds tourism promotion initiative and I recognize that the Allegheny National Forest is large attraction for tourism in the PA Wilds region.  I look forward to speaking with Mr. Johnson and learning more details about the ANF.

On Wednesday, June 4th, I will be meeting at the Clearfield Hospital with members of the Hospital and Healthsystem Association of Pennsylvania to discuss the important issue of healthcare.  While comprehensive healthcare reform has been discussed for almost 20 years, the federal government has been consistent on only one front – the failure to enact meaningful legislation to solve the problem.  The meeting with the Hospital and Healthsystem Association of Pennsylvania will be very valuable to learn what their association feels will be necessary to help achieve healthcare reform.

On Friday June 6th and Saturday June 7th I will be in Harrisburg attending the Democratic State Committee Meeting.  I look forward to meeting with county chairs, state committee members and other people from the 5th congressional district that will be in attendance at the meeting.  

A quick update on events from the past week.  Kelly, Amanda and I visited Centre County on Monday to attend the Memorial Day celebration in Boalsburg.  While it was a humid day, many people were out enjoying the festivities.  

On Wednesday, I traveled to Reynoldsville to attend the monthly meeting of the Jefferson County Democratic Committee.  





On Thursday, I traveled to Wellsboro, Tioga County to attend a fundraiser for PA Senate candidate Don Hilliard and later, the monthly meeting of the Tioga County Democratic Committee.  





Finally, yesterday Kelly and I made a trip to Lock Haven in Clinton County to attend a fundraiser for State Senator John Wozniak.  While at Senator Wozniak’s event, Kelly and I spent some time speaking with Rick and Marie Vilello.  After the event was over, at Rick and Marie’s urging, Kelly and I took some time visit the riverfront area and walk along the levee.  Throughout the primary campaign I listened to Mayor Rick speak with such pride about his community of Lock Haven.  After our visit today, I can see why Rick is so proud and excited about his town.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

NY-26: Clusterfudge Primary Gets Nuttier

With the ongoing meltdown in NY-13 in spectacular display, it’s easy to forget that there are at least three other GOP-held House seats in New York that are on the chopping block this year. In NY-26 (the seat being vacated by ex-NRCC chair/Mark Foley enabler Tom Reynolds), however, we have a crowded primary to get through before focusing our fire on the Republican, and that primary just got more crowded.

Erie County Legislator (a position equivalent to county council or county commission in most states) Kathy Konst has announced her intention to officially announce her campaign for this seat later this week. Designating petitions to get on the ballot begin circulating this week, so she’s a little late to the game, but she’s committed to spending at least $100,000 of her own funds on the primary.

“I’m beyond the exploration stage of this,” she said. “I’ll be making the decision shortly.”

There are already three candidates on the Democratic side of this primary. Jon Powers is a substitute teacher and Iraq War veteran who has already secured the endorsement of the local Democratic committees in all of NY-26’s counties and enjoys netroots backing (although I noted Matt Stoller voicing some misgivings about Powers last week).

Jack Davis was the 2006 candidate, and was basically responsible for wresting defeat from the jaws of victory against the scandal-plagued Reynolds with a tepid campaign that focused almost exclusively on trade issues and those damn kids who are always on his lawn. (Davis is in the news these days for his legal quest to overturn the “millionaire’s amendment,” in order to bring his plan to spend $3 million of his own money to win the primary to fruition.) No word on whether he plans to seek cross-endorsement from the Crazy Old Man Party this cycle. The other candidate, Alice Kryzan, is an environmental lawyer, which sounds good until you realize that she was an environmental lawyer on the side of the polluters in the Love Canal disaster.

I don’t know of anything to suggest where Konst falls in the liberal/conservative spectrum; the Buffalo News says she’s “proud of her independent reputation,” but, geez, everyone from Bernie Sanders to David Duke is proud of his independent reputation. Another question might be from whom she’ll draw votes: she’s the only elected official in the race, so she has that base of support to draw on, but the other three candidates are all also from nearby towns in the Buffalo suburbs portion of the district (she’s from Lancaster, Powers and Davis are from Clarence, and Kryzan is from Amherst), even though this district encompasses a lot of rural terrain and Rochester suburbs as well. She and Kryzan might well split the “women’s” vote, but I’m more worried about Powers and Konst splitting the “party establishment” and/or “sane” vote, allowing one of the other ones to slip through. Hopefully some polls soon will provide some clarity to this situation.

On the Republican side, Rothenberg is reporting that Iraq war vet David Bellavia will be dropping out of the race soon. This allows a clear path to the nomination for businessman Chris Lee.

CA-04: Brown Leads Ose and McClintock in New Poll

Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (5/14-15, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 38

Dough Ose (R): 34

Undecided: 27

Charlie Brown (D): 42

Tom McClintock (R): 40

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

Ose and McClintock are giving each other an absolute shellacking over the airwaves, so these are some nice numbers for Brown. Also of note — on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats and Republicans are at a 43%-43% parity, with 15% undecided. Those are dramatic numbers from an R+10.9 district.

Here are a few select favorability ratings from the poll:





























McCain: 58/35
Obama: 57/34
McClintock: 39/29
Bush: 38/58
Brown: 36/18
Doolittle: 32/48
Ose: 27/28

It’ll be tough for Brown to get those few extra points that he needs to clinch a win here, but the numbers suggest that it’s certainly not impossible.

Who Am I? What Am I Doing Here?

Well, I’m Crisitunity. David and James were kind enough to ask me to write for the front page when I see fit, so you’ll be seeing more of my contributions. I have no paid connection to the world of politics, and in fact I haven’t since the summer of 1990, which I spent trudging around OR-05 canvassing for Mike Kopetski’s campaign (which, if you do the math, means I’m officially getting to be middle-aged).

As for the “What am I doing here?” part of the question, I’ll mostly be doing more of the big-picture quantitiatve stuff that I’ve been diarying about lately, although I’ll pick up any breaking polls or Republican sex scandals that otherwise fall through the cracks. I’m obsessed with all things demographic, and as we gradually get closer to 2010 and census time, I’ll be focusing more on issues of redistricting and something we need to start worrying about now: state legislature control.

Also, I’d like to keep tinkering with the PVI/Vote Index that many of you are fond of; I’ve been really blown away by the work Poblano (aka Nate Silver) has been doing lately, and would really like to start developing a more comprehensive sabermetric approach to predicting what kind of representative a district can elect and how they might vote once they’re elected. (Unfortunately, I might need something more sophisticated than Excel to make any headway on that! I’m not a professional statistician or demographer or anything close to that, just a dabbler.)

Anyway, SSP has one of the most informed and focused readerships of any blog out there, and I really look forward to hashing things out with you guys. As always, I welcome questions and comments about whatever it is I’m doing.

By the way, if you’re wondering about my handle, it’s a Simpsons reference:

Lisa: Look on the bright side, Dad. Did you know that the Chinese use the same word for ‘crisis’ as they do for ‘opportunity’?

Homer: Yes! Crisitunity.

NC-Sen: Dole Expands Her Lead in New Poll

Public Policy Polling (5/28-29, likely voters, 5/8-9 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 39 (43)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The poll shows Hagan at 50-23 among African-American voters (with 28% undecided), down from 62-21 (with 17% undecided) earlier in the month.

Dole’s recent statewide ad blitz might have something to do with her growing margin. She’s still under 50%, but that’s the advantage of having a ten-to-one cash-on-hand advantage while your opponent refills their coffers.