Swing State Project

(From the diaries.  I wouldn’t go so far as to call MO-GOV a “safe Democratic pickup” just yet, though. – promoted by James L.)

Cross-posted from Election Inspection, here are the latest Governor polls:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
IN	Daniels	Research 2000 4/21-4/24	Jill Long Thompson	45	Mitch Daniels	45
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	57	Kenny Hulshof	33
MO	Blunt	SUSA 5/16-5/18	Jay Nixon	58	Sarah Steelman	33
MT	Schweitzer	Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21	Brian Schweitzer	55	Roy Brown	30
NC	Easley	SUSA 5/17-5/19	Bev Perdue	52	Pat McCrory	45
UT	Huntsman	Dan Jones & Assoc. 5/13-5/19	Bob Springmeyer	13	Jon Huntsman	77
WA	Gregoire	Rasmussen 5/12	Christine Gregoire	52	Dino Rossi	41

Thus far, Missouri looks to be a Safe Democratic pickup, while Indiana is a toss-up. Vermont is currently unpolled, but State Speaker of the House Gaye Symington (D-VT) could make the race against incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas a competitive one. North Carolina and Washington look like likely Democratic retentions so far. I don’t expect Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, or New Hampshire to become competitive, and the only question in Delaware is which Democrat will win the primary.

Research 2000 for DailyKos (5/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll has a sample of 48R-24D-28I. Exit polls from 2004 showed turnouts at 53R-25D-22I. If this shift from R to I is accurate, that’s a heartening sign, seeing as most independents these days lean Dem. Indeed, Trauner carries that group 58-32. He also fares far better among Dems (85-11) than Lummis does among Republicans (62-15).

These results are very similar to a Casper Star-Tribune poll from January, which had Trauner edging Lummis 41-40. Then as now, Trauner had more solid support from his own party than Lummis. However, the GOP hasn’t decided on a nominee yet, and won’t until late in the summer – August 19th, in fact. Lummis, a former Secretary of State, has to contend with rancher Mark Gordon, who has raised considerably more than she has – though the bulk of his haul actually consists of a $300K donation he made to his own campaign.

Markos didn’t poll a Trauner-Gordon matchup, but he may want to the next time R2K is in the field: a Gordon internal poll from earlier this month showed him up 39-23 over Lummis. That poll, though, showed 30% undecideds, and I’m going to bet that surveying likely voters for a primary in the dog days of summer is a very inexact science.

Depending on how divisive this primary gets, GOP support may or may not coalesce around the eventual nominee. Right now, Lummis at least seems pretty untarnished, with a 49-29 favorability rating. Trauner’s numbers are similar, 52-31, and he still has a little room for growth (17% have no opinion of him). He’ll need to hope that Republican support for his opponent, whoever it may be, stays soft, and he’ll also need to eke out some more votes from undecided independents. If Trauner can do that, lightning might just strike.

P.S. Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama 53-40. Kerry lost this state 69-29.

Blech.  This can’t be good, a week before the state DFL convention.

A week before Minnesota DFLers endorse a U.S. Senate candidate, behind-the-scenes rumblings about a satirical Playboy magazine article written by candidate Al Franken eight years ago have broken into the open.

Four of the state’s five Congresspeople are quoted or mentioned as having concerns.

http://www.startribune.com/pol…  

Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

• AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

  I’m hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she’s dumber than a sack of hammers.

  On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright’s campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

• AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won’t have any problems in his primary.

  Republicans will decide between insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), ’06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

• CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.
• IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race — from Research 2000 in late April — showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.
• NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to “wait his turn”, Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

  Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.

• NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers’ primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I’m rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler’s chances against either Republican.
• NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It’s unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

  State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.

• NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state’s House members throwing their hats in the ring.

  Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce’s more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall’s chances this November.

• NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

  Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party’s nomination.

• NM-02: I’ll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce’s open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I’ve heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson’s recent endorsement of Teague.

  For what it’s worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is “likely” in November — as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

  The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and ’02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone’s guess.

• NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

  I don’t know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

June 10:

• ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

  Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

• SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it’s certainly not on many prognosticators’ radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That’s an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

  Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

• VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./’05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

  The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

June 17:

• MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it’s time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

June 24:

• UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it’s unclear whether we’ll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

With congressional primaries in Maine, South Carolina, and Virginia on June 10th, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC for the period from 4/1 to 5/21 passed at midnight.  Let’s round-up the numbers from all the hot races (all figures are subject to rounding and listed in the thousands; loans not included):

“Under the radar” races are my favorite, so let’s take a look at SC-01 and SC-02, two deeply red seats with surprisingly strong Democratic challengers.

In SC-01, businesswoman/civic leader Linda Ketner has raised ($430K) and spent ($398K) quite a bit money so far. She’s also loaned her campaign $350,000 so far. This is some serious money for an R+9.6 district — and she needs to be posting these kinds of figures, when the incumbent is sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand.

Also impressive is SC-02’s Rob Miller. An Iraq vet, Miller entered the race in March and has raised nearly $200K and lent his campaign an additional $100K. Again, very respectable scrilla for an R+8.9 district.

Baselice & Associates (PDF) (5/20-25, registered voters, April in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 33 (34)

John Cornyn (R-inc): 49 (49)

Unsure: 16

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Baselice may be a Republican firm, but these numbers somehow “feel” a bit more on-target than the previous pair of polls by Rasmussen and Research 2000 that showed Noriega only behind by 3 or 4 points. But I say that without popping the hood and digging around with the poll’s crosstabs.

Still, the important point here is Cornyn under 50, which this poll confirms. However, if Noriega hopes to close that gap (however large it may be), he better get ready to report a multi-million dollar fundraising quarter at the end of June.  

Well this was a curveball. From the Staten Island Advance:

The GOP has just nominated Todt Hill resident Frank Powers to run for Congress. […]

Powers is on the board of directors of Richmond University Medical Center and has served as President of the Staten Island Academy. He served on the Board of the former St. Vincent’s Medical Center for over 20 years and is a past president of the Downtown Athletic Club and past president of the Heisman Trophy Foundation. He served as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Staten Island Institute of Arts and Sciences, and Chairman of the USS Sullivan’s’ Foundation. He is the former Chairman of the Board of St. Elizabeth Ann’s Health Care and Rehabilitation Center. He was elected to the Board of the MTA in 2005. Powers also currently serves on the Board of Wagner College.

Powers did not appear in any of the prospective or rumored candidate lists that were popping up in media reports in the last two weeks. It’s worth noting that he looks older than dirt.

Hotline on Call has more:

One big question is whether Powers will self-fund (fully or partially) his bid. If so, that’s a huge factor in whether he’ll be successful, considering the huge expense of campaigning in the NYC media market. But if he chooses not to self fund, he should have a considerable fundraising base from his past connections in the financial services community.

This guy seems like a big question mark to me.  I like our chances.

Update: Here’s a fun tidbit: the Staten Island GOP’s finance chair – who considered running for the seat himself – is backing McMahon:

But Dr. Jamshad Wyne, who interviewed with the party last night even though he’d said he was pulling out of the race last weekend, objected to the Powers pick.

He left the convention before the final vote was taken, saying he would support McMahon in the race.

“I like Frank Powers,” he said. “But I think Mike is a better candidate. We should be willing to cross party lines to support the best candidate.”

Wonderful.

Update II: Phil sums it up brilliantly: “The Bottom Of The Bottom Of The Barrel”.

I wrote a diary earlier this week. I am now re-pushing this page in light of some earlier discussions that I had. I think that it is important that we send a message to all those that voted against the GI Bill that we will take note.

I donate $20 to Noriega earlier this afternoon. Can anyone match this? I would love to give him the max, but cannot afford to do so. So therefore I am raising through blogging and friends that I have encouraged to give.

If you can spread the wealth and send these other candidates a few extra bucks it is worth it. We need to have a collective message that every Senator should be held accountable for their stance on how they treat veterans.

From Elizabeth Benjamin:

A Staten Island source confirms state Sen. Andrew Lanza is officially taking a pass on Fossella’s seat, choosing instead to seek re-election for the seat he already holds in the 24th SD.

Lanza has already informed Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia of his decision.

This must be music to Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno’s ears. Not so much for the Staten Island GOP or the Republican Party as a whole in New York.

As one disgruntled elephant told me earlier this afternoon: “If you can’t find someone to run for a seat that was once thought to be a sure-thing for Republicans, you might as well pack it in.”

Said another, thoroughly disgusted GOPer: “The Staten Island Republican Party is dead.”

The Staten Island Advance confirms the news. The Richmond County GOP will meet tonight to endorse a candidate. Lisa Giovinazzo, who ran against Democrat (and current NY-13 candidate) Mike McMahon for his city council seat in 2003 and won only 29% of the vote, is the apparent front-runner for the endorsement. Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio seems to be the candidate of choice for the Brooklyn GOP.

Jonah has some more in the diaries.

The Republican County Committee is holding candidate interviews tonight, where if you can believe former candidate GOP chairman John Friscia, Lisa Giovinazzo is the front runner for their endorsement.  Lisa Giovinazzo as he tells us, because I had no clue is an NY1 reporter.  She is also known for losing to McMahon previously when she ran against him in 2003 for his City Council seat.  As a third/fourth/fifth tier candidate I am sure everyone is familiar with  her, but if not here is her 2003 candidate bio.

This seems to be a good indication that State Senator Andrew Lanza is all but out of the race.

update:

State Senate Lanza officially withdraws.