Swing State Project

Benenson Strategy Group for Mary Jo Kilroy (5/20-22, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Stivers, a state senator and an Iraq vet, has been one of the brighter recruiting spots for the NRCC.  Kilroy’s numbers are boosted by fairly high name recognition (78%) from her 2006 run.

Despite her 2006 race being a bruising affair, the Politico notes that her favorability rating has begun to recover into net positive territory:

She had a net favorability rating of 10 percent — 44 percent of respondents held a favorably opinion of her, while 34 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Kilroy’s favorability rating has rebounded from her political standing in October 2006, when a plurality of voters held an unfavorable opinion of her.

This is a 50-50 district that’s trending bluer every day. Kilroy can’t rest easy, but this race is looking good in terms of money (she has a significant fundraising lead) and now poll numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.

So let’s tally ’em up.  Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.

However, in the “too good to be true?” file, Rasmussen’s same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.

In the state’s other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.

Rasmussen just posted a new poll of the MS special election between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker, and the results show there is indeed a very tight race.

Musgrove 47%

Wicker 46%

Spectacular news.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters, 4/2 in parens):

Vivian Figures (D): 29 (36)

Jeff Sessions (R-inc): 62 (57)

(MoE: ±4%)

Nothing to see here, folks.

Because it sure sounds that way to me. From Action 3 News Omaha:

Esch is hoping an Obama surge here will help him but Terry’s ready to fight, with help from an all new team, what Terry calls “The Obama-Terry voter.” Terry says they are, “people who want the right kind of change.”

Esch told me today he’d like to meet the Obama-Terry voters. According to Esch he, “can’t imagine what they look like.”

Note: Despite his apparent confusion, Lee Terry is not a superdelegate.

(H/T: Dave Sund)

From the Staten Island Advance:

The Democratic County Committee a short time ago nominated North Shore City Councilman Michael McMahon for Staten Island’s Congressional seat, which will be vacated by Vito Fossella in January. The vote was 131-40 with 4 abstentions.

This is great news.  The GOP has been struggling hard to find a credible candidate here after Richmond County DA declined the race and state Sen. Andrew Lanza sending out signals that he’s not interested.

More as we get it.

UPDATE: From the NY Times:

Mr. McMahon, who has represented the North Shore of Staten Island for the last seven years, said he had already received the support of the Brooklyn Democratic Party leader, Assemblyman Vito J. Lopez, as well as other Democratic elected officials who had considered running for the seat. The district includes all of Staten Island and portions of Brooklyn.

“I am humbled by this responsibility, and I’m very optimistic about the new beginning in this district,” Mr. McMahon said in an interview on Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, Stephen Harrison is intent on being a pain in the neck:

Mr. Harrison has made it clear that he would remain in the race, despite any decision made by party leaders. Mr. Harrison was defiant after Wednesday night’s meeting, calling Mr. McMahon an “opportunist” who had entered the race only after Mr. Fossella had announced his decision. In contrast, Mr. Harrison said, he had been a candidate when Mr. Fossella had been expected to run again.

“This is simply a matter of the machine being at work,” Mr. Harrison said in an interview after the meeting. “Not only is he a Johnny-come-lately,” he said of Mr. McMahon, “he is not going to resonate with the voters in the Democratic primary.”

The top Democratic choices to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Vito Fossella are quickly whittling down.  State Sen. Diane Savino removed her name from consideration last week, and now, Assemblyman Mike Cusick is saying that he won’t be running, either:

“I took a hard look at Congress,” Cusick (D-Mid-Island) told the Advance in a telephone interview moments ago. “I looked hard at what it would take to get there. The one thing utmost in my mind was what would be best for the people I serve, and the people of Staten Island as a whole.”

Cusick said he was also concerned about having a fight over the seat within the Democratic Party.

“I don’t want to have a fight for the seat, a fight in the party,” Cusick said. “This is a hard decision for me.”

With this news, all eyes turn to NYC Councilman Mike McMahon, a Richmond County resident who has expressed an interest in running.  If we can’t get McMahon to run here, or get one of the earlier drop-outs to reconsider, then Team Blue is in big trouble.

(H/T: Jonah in NYC)

Cross-posted from Show Me Progress:

There are endorsements and then there are ENDORSEMENTS. If a state rep endorses Mike Garman (running for the Democratic nomination in Todd Akin’s district), that’s nice. If the Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Garman–in May!–that’s huge. For several reasons.

First, an endorsement during a primary race is unprecedented. One St. Charles Democratic official with ties to labor told me that he can’t remember the AFL-CIO endorsing in a primary contest. But it happened. The Missouri AFL-CIO’s Executive Council and its president, Hugh McVey, have announced their endorsements in Missouri’s federal races: Russ Carnahan, Lacy Clay, Emanuel Cleaver, Ike Skelton (no surprises so far), Kay Barnes (also not a surprise) and … Mike Garman.

Now that the endorsement is in place, money from the international union in D.C. might follow. The Missouri chapter of the AFL-CIO can write letters of recommendation urging the parent union to lend support to any of the endorsed Missouri candidates.

And finally, the state AFL-CIO will send out 2-5 mailers to let its members know who it’s endorsing. In St. Charles County, 35 percent of the voters are union members. Presumably, that percentage would be considerably higher among Democratic voters. Lots of those union Dems will note Garman’s name on a mailer and vote for him.

When I talked to Mike last night, he was elated with the news. He feels that people in St. Charles County respect him as a hard worker who knows first-hand the problems they face. He pointed out that for months now he’s been working a forty-hour a week job running the ambulance service in one of the St. Charles ambulance districts, then campaigning sixty hours a week and getting four hours of sleep a night. A few nights back, he knocked on 300 doors–in pouring rain.

Sheer doggedness has made Mike a serious contender in this race, and this endorsement can’t do anything but help his chances.

By the way, I wrote about Mike in December here and here, in case you want to know more about him.

From Roll Call:

In a potentially worrying sign for freshman Rep. Bill Sali (R-Idaho), he escaped Tuesday’s 1st district GOP primary against Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury with just 57 percent of the vote, according to the unofficial election results posted by the Idaho secretary of state.

Salisbury closed the pre-primary fundraising period with just $3,500 on hand, spending a total of $43,000 on his campaign on contributions of $46,600. Considering that Salisbury ran a campaign bereft of a serious advertising effort, the outcome of this contest could signal trouble ahead for Sali in the general election.

57% is awfully weak, especially considering that Salisbury ran a low-profile, poorly funded campaign. Unless voters were confused by the letters “Sali” being in both names (which I doubt), that’s an awfully high protest vote.

It’s also worth noting that Ran Paul scored 25% against John McCain in Idaho’s presidential primary, which was also last night.  As Roll Call notes, that’s a decently-sized libertarian vote that Democrat Walt Minnick can play to.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: The final result was actually 60% for Sali.  That’s still very weak.

Only weeks after the special election, the Republican field to take on freshly-minted Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux is still in flux. The Advocate reports that Chas Roemer (son of former Gov. Buddy Roemer) has taken his name out of consideration. In his place, it seems likely that perennial loser Woody Jenkins will take another kick at the can:

Jenkins said in a phone interview Tuesday Roemer’s decision to bow out is a factor in his own consideration to run. Jenkins said he wants to make sure there is a strong conservative candidate on the Republican ticket.

“I am close to making a decision, and that decision will probably be to run,” Jenkins said in an e-mail Tuesday.

It sounds like consultant/lobbyist Laurinda Calongne is gearing up for another bid, too:

Her campaign manager, Emily Tiller, said in an e-mail that they are receiving a tremendous amount of support and encouragement for her to run.

“Because she is a small business owner and a healthcare expert, people are saying she has the best chance of beating Don Cazayoux in November,” Tiller’s e-mail says. “We will be making an announcement very soon.”

Both Jenkins and Calongne are very much B-list candidates for the GOP here, but with the prospect of an independent run by Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson still in the air, even a B-list candidate has a shot here for Team Red.