Swing State Project

Call it the “Deathwatch Watch” – the Hill writes about us:

Swing State Project, a blog focused on congressional races from the 2004 swing states, started the “Tom Cole Deathwatch” in March, after Democrat Bill Foster won former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) old seat in a special election. The blog updated the “deathwatch” last week, asking readers to guess how long it would be before Cole was ousted.

The optimism among liberal blogs over this year’s congressional races is in stark contrast to the mood of conservatives.

“Unless congressional Republicans plan on making a dramatic course correction on Iraq withdrawal, SCHIP [the State Children’s Health Insurance Program], healthcare reform and fair trade, they’re in for a world of hurt in November,” said James Lambert, one of Swing State Project’s editors.

The premise for the article, though, is that rightwing bloggers are furious with Cole and want to see him get booted. Given how utterly impotent the conserative blogosphere is, this probably means that Cole is actually more likely to stay on.

In fact, a separate Hill piece about the Republicans who (well, sorta) matter – ie, the House Republican caucus – suggests that Cole (and John Boehner) are safe. That’s why I love this deathwatch – we win whether Cole stays or goes.

Results will begin to be reported from Oregon in a few minutes.  We’ll use this thread to track the returns from OR-Sen and OR-05.

RESULTS: OR-Sen | OR-05

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11:20PM ET: Merkley is up by 4 points so far.  He’s losing Portland, but has a big lead in Lane County (Eugene).  Interesting.

11:57PM ET (David): Merkley’s lead has been holding steady at 4% much of the night. About 61% of the vote has been counted so far.

12:17AM ET (David): My back-of-the-envelope says that it’s unlikely that Novick could squeeze more than another 4-5K out of Multnomah County (margin-wise). Outside of Multnomah, he’s got almost nothing. I’m not sure I can see how he can overtake Merkley’s lead.

12:40AM ET (James): Mike “I Don’t Know What Cocaine Looks Like” Erickson won his primary, amazingly enough.

1:03AM ET (David): Blue Oregon says that Novick has called Merkley to concede.

1:06AM ET (James): The Oregonian has just called this race for Jeff Merkley!

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters):

Kay Hagan (D): 46

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 50

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Very strong numbers for Hagan, indeed.  But could this contest actually be even closer than SUSA’s numbers show?  Consider the following: SUSA’s likely voter turnout model puts the African-American vote at 20% of the total sample.  However, CNN’s 2004 exit polling had the black vote at 26%.  With Obama at the top of the ticket, you’ve gotta believe that the energized black turnout will push that share far closer to 26% (and maybe even more) than to 20%.

Polls close in Oregon at 8pm Pacific/11pm Eastern.  We’ll put up a results thread closer to that hour.  

In the meantime, feel free to post your predictions for the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for OR-05.

Polls are closed in Kentucky and there are exactly two contests worth watching in the Bluegrass state: the Democratic primaries for the Senate and the 2nd Congressional District.  I’m feeling pretty ill today, so no liveblogging for me.

RESULTS: KY-Sen | KY-02

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UPDATE (David): No surprise – Lunsford wins. In KY-02, Boswell has a 20% lead over Haire.

Hey there folks, TJ from Loaded Orygun here–Oregon’s progressive community and a member of the 50-State Blog Network.

All eyes are obviously turned towards Oregon later tonight, but without any results until at least 11pm eastern–and no exits to pore over–some folks might get a little edgy from all the “Obama can’t hack the working class” nonsense on cable and need a distraction to get ready for the GOOD news.

The first thing to check out is the nuts and bolts election info provided by one of our members, skywaker9. Ballot dropoffs, other websites to visit, where to get results, how vote by mail works here–lots of great stuff.

We’ve been mostly covering the Senate race between Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley, and I’m sure what most folks would like to know is, who’s gonna win? And the answer is…no one knows for sure. But there have been four polls in the last 8 days on the race, and taken together they definitely give us some clues.

Want something a little peppier, visual and shorter to read through? What’s easier than videos? Check out the candidates responding to the most recent SUSA, Novick’s ad on Hardball last night, and what some pundits have called “the best 90 seconds of the primary.”  

Finally, a look at some of the many non-Oregon publications that have featured Novick or addressed the Senate race. Prominent among recent articles is the AP piece essentially pitting Novick against Chuck Schumer, but there’s also a top-notch bio piece by the Oregonian if you need to find out more about the man, a great interview in slashdot–plus links to all of the 12 state newspapers that endorsed Novick.

Enjoy your virtual visit to Oregon, and I hope your candidate wins!

Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing).  Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions.  This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation.  In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4).  In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.

Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline.  The case for a Don Young retirement is simple.  It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence.  The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell.  Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell.  We’ll know by June 2.

My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice.  Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner.  Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA).  Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.

None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave.  Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.

Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out.  There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving.  No change.

Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.

No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed.  That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin.  If Sensenbrenner.  Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor.  (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).

Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings.  McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth.  She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane.  Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994.  He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree.  Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer.  I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career.  Lose, yes.  Retire, no.

6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine.  McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear.  Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29).  Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa).  My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up.  Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible.  (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.

8. Mike Castle.  Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up).  Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.

9. Marilyn Musgrave.  Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district.  Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan.  I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again.  Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again.  (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.)  Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.

10.  John Shadegg.  Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash.  He’s running.  Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees.  Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.

Nothing happening:  KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).

Don Young may realistically retire.  Anybody else seems highly unlikely.

I just wanted to pass along some news I got in my email box just now. Betsy Markey has been elected ot receive the $3,000 Progressive Patriot contribution.

Dear Supporter,

Thank you!

Last week we asked for your help to win the Progressive Patriot fund web nomination.  We had an incredible response from our entire list and received enough votes to place a very close third place.   Due to the tremendous turnout for Betsy, Sen. Feingold is sending a $3,000 check today to support our campaign!

As this campaign continues to build momentum I truly appreciate that this is bigger than any one person.  Thank you again!

Betsy Markey

She’s nothing if not organized.

Hamilton Campaigns (5/15-18, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48

Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove’s favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14.  In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker’s homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43.  Even the presidential race is reasonably close:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.