Swing State Project

IL-14 was bad.  LA-06 was worse.  But if you’re an ass-scratching member of the Boehner caucus, the very real scenario of receiving a back-breaking loss in Mississippi next week is too terrifying to even begin imagining.

That’s why the GOP is calling in the cavalry to stop Democrat Travis Childers:

Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) presented a multi-faceted plan to retain the Mississippi seat to the House Republican Young Guns group on Tuesday. The plan is designed to get staff on the ground and checks to Davis.

“We need boots on the ground. This is going to be about voter turnout,” Westmoreland said. “So it’s a matter of having enough people to go door to door, to go to Wal-Mart and Home Depot to get [Davis’s] message out.”

Westmoreland and several other members have dispatched staff to Mississippi to do just that. Others, like Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), have supported Davis financially.

“One thing that the Young Guns do is engage in races,” said McCarthy.

Young Guns?  More like City Slickers II.

Or maybe Blazing Saddles.

No, wait — I’ve got it: Two Mules For Sister Sara.

The DCCC’s independent expenditures for the evening in Mississippi:

• $1450 on phonebanking
  

• $16,700 on direct mail
  

• $3000 on media production
  

• $6000 on field organizing for Travis Childers

The NRCC:

• $700 on phonebanking
  

• $4400 on polling

This has got to be the 9th or 10th round of polling that the NRCC has commissioned here.  (Update: I checked — it’s actually the 8th round.)  Interesting that they haven’t released the toplines from any of them.

Total spent:

NRCC: $1,057,384 &nbsp|&nbsp DCCC: $1,645,893

Some notable changes. Most prominant right now is that Cook has changed NY-13 from Leans Republican to Tossup. Read below the fold.

House Editor David Wasserman foresees a photo finish in the MS-01 special election scheduled for Tuesday:  If it is true that “time heals all wounds,” Republicans would not be panicking over next week’s north Mississippi special election. Yet, two weeks after Greg Davis (R) finished in second behind Travis Childers (D) in the initial round of balloting, private polls suggest that the needle has not moved and that the party’s chances of holding the seat in the runoff are 50/50 at best.  Click here to read more.

· House Ratings Changes:

AK-AL   Young     Lean Republican to Toss Up

CA-11   McNerney  Lean Democratic to Toss Up

CT-02   Courtney  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

FL-21   L. Diaz-Balart  Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-24   Feeney   Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-02  Boyda     Lean Democratic to Toss Up

KY-03  Yarmuth   Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

IN-02  Donnelly  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

IN-07  Carson    Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

MI-07  Walberg   Lean Republican to Toss Up

MI-09  Knollenberg  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

MO-06  Graves  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-13  Fossella Likely Republican to Toss Up

NC-11  Shuler  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

OH-02  Schmidt  Lean Republican to Likely Republican

OH-14  LaTourette  Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Rasmussen (5/6, likely voters, 3/24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 51 (46)

Sarah Steelman (R): 35 (39)

Jay Nixon (D): 51 (48)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 35 (37)

(MoE: ±4%)

Damn, Nixon looks formidable.  Mark Missouri down as the Democrats’ best gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/5-7, likely voters, 9/24-26/07 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 44 (35)

John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

This confirms another recent poll by Rasmussen, which showed Cornyn leading Noriega by a 47-43 margin.

If these polls don’t help Noriega start raising some real money, I don’t know what will.

From Roll Call:

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), who had been widely rumored to be interested in running for governor in 2010, said at a staff meeting this morning that he plans to seek re-election when his term is up in two years.

Isakson’s spokeswoman Sheridan Watson confirmed this afternoon that the first-term Senator told his staff that he wants to remain in the Senate rather than make his second run at the governor’s mansion.

Somewhat surprising, but I’m not sure that this shakes up the 2010 map much at all — Georgia is becoming an increasingly perilous place for statewide Democratic hopefuls, and there is no obvious frontrunner waiting in the wings to take this race on for Team Blue next cycle.

Here’s a further sign that the House Democratic Caucus is taking this open seat race in Mississippi very seriously.  The Politico has the scoop:

Democrat Travis Childers is not yet an elected member of Congress, but party leaders are already keeping a seat on the Agriculture Committee warm for him should he be successful in the Mississippi special election on Tuesday.

Should Childers beat Republican Greg Davis, the newest member of Congress would come to Washington as lawmakers finish work on a massive farm, a bill loaded with subsidies for farmers across the country – including those in the rural parts of the state Childers needs most to pick up the GOP seat. Lawmakers wrapped up work on that farm bill on Thursday, but Childers could still get some easy headlines if Congress approves it next week. It might even be one of his first votes if he wins. […]

A Democratic leadership aide confirmed Thursday that Childers would be appointed to the Agriculture Committee if he wins next week. That news could give him a boost where he needs it most; the Democrat is trying to play the rural parts of the district against the more suburban communities outside Memphis, where Davis resides. Even Republicans have acknowledged their candidate has come from the “wrong” part of the district.

This would be a great gig for Childers, and certainly a boon for Northeast Mississippi.

On another note, we’re only $35 short of $3000 for Travis Childers on our Actblue page.  Will a hero step forward and put us over the top?

Special election: 5/13.

I’ll be up front when I say that I don’t know much about NYC-area politicos beyond Mayor and Congress, but the NY Daily News is reporting that the DCCC is recruiting Assemblyman Mike Cusick to run for what is likely to be an open NY-13 seat.

Crain’s reported this morning that the DCCC has been calling Assemblyman Mike Cusick in hopes of coaxing him into the race. Certain Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are floating Sen. Diane Savino’s name.

Here is what little I could find about Cusick.

Cusick is the son of late New York State Supreme Court Justice Peter P. Cusick and Miriam Cusick and has been a lifelong resident of Staten Island (he currently lives in Silver Lake, Staten Island). He has two brothers.

Shortly after graduating from Villanova University in 1991, Cusick began his career as a Special Assistant to former President of the City Council Andrew J. Stein. He served as the office representative for the Borough of Staten Island and worked on issues regarding incineration and waste management alternatives.

Prior to his 2002 election, Cusick served as the Chief of Staff to former Staten Island Assemblyman Eric N. Vitaliano, managing staff and overseeing the assemblyman’s Albany and Staten Island offices. He was instrumental in researching and developing statewide legislation, including the law to close the Fresh Kills Landfill. Cusick was also Vitaliano’s representative to local and statewide civic, professional, and union organizations on legislative and community issues.

Cusick then served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer. His duties included serving as Senator Schumer’s liaison to New York State elected officials, as well as various federal agencies. In addition, he managed the day-to-day operation of the senator’s New York City office.

Well, based on his background, I don’t think raising money would be a problem for him. What does everyone think?

From the NY Daily News Blog:

National Republican leaders have “lost all faith” in Rep. Vito Fossella and are poised to begin polling in the 13th CD on potential candidates to take his place on the ballot, despite the fact that he has yet to make a definitive statement about his future political plans.

The poll could start as early as today, according to a Washington GOP source, and will likely include at least two names: Sen. Andrew Lanza and Staten Island DA Dan Donovan.

Another national GOP source said Fossella’s fellow House minority members were “shocked” to learn of his “double life,” and his admission that he fathered a child out of wedlock with retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, Laura Fay.

While the Democratic field for this seat includes Brooklynites Stephen Harrison and Domenic Recchia, national Democrats may be looking for an upgrade:

Crain’s reported this morning that the DCCC has been calling Assemblyman Mike Cusick in hopes of coaxing him into the race. Certain Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are floating Sen. Diane Savino’s name.

Cusick hails from Staten, so he’s probably the best bet here.  Savino’s seat is too precious for Senate Democrats, who need two pick-ups this fall in order to take the majority.

Via the NYT, a statement from Vito Fossella:

I have had a relationship with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three-year-old daughter. My personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain to the people I love and I am truly sorry. While I understand that there will be many questions, including those about my political future, making any political decisions right now are furthest from my mind. Over the coming weeks and months, I will to continue to do my job and I will work hard to heal the deep wounds I have caused.

Still no official word yet on whether he will resign or retire, as is widely expected.

On the web: Vino Fossella

Update (James): John Boehner is asking Fossella to make a decision on his political future over the weekend.  Will Fossella bother to follow the hapless Boehner’s timetable?  Remember, Rick Renzi flipped the bird to Boehner when he asked the embattled Arizona incumbent to step down earlier this year.