The NRCC posted an additional expenditure of $21,000 in Mississippi today on direct mail and yet another poll. All told, the NRCC has spent about $50,000 on polling in this district. Sure doesn’t bode well for Team Red that they haven’t released any toplines from these polls so far.
The DCCC posted another big investment in Mississippi tonight: $195,000. The expenditures include: $130,000 in media buys, $1200 on phonebanking, $46,000 on direct mail, $12,000 on media production, and $6000 on field organizing for Travis Childers.
The new expenditures bring the total party expenditures in this district to a whopping $1,618,690 for the DCCC, and $1,052,296 for the NRCC. I’ve also been told that Freedom’s Crotch Watch has spent an estimated $450,000 in media buys here — and possibly more, since they haven’t been posting their electioneering reports as required by law.
If you want to make a contribution to Travis Childers, tonight is the last best time for your money to make an impact.
In the wake of a red-hot extramarital scandal, the Washington Post’s Mary Ann Akers picks up the inside buzz that this term will be Staten Island Republican Vito Fossella’s last:
The consensus on Capitol Hill is: Vito is finito.
The clock is ticking on Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) — or “Vino” Fossella, as the New York tabloids have taken to calling him — who is battling not just drunken driving charges but much more personally scandalous allegations that could damage his party’s prospects in the November congressional elections.
GOP political insiders say Fossella, whose blood-alcohol content was more than twice the legal limit when he was busted at 12:15 a.m. last Thursday, stands little chance of running for reelection at this point, and their Democratic counterparts agree. Buzz on the Hill and around town Wednesday was that Fossella would be announcing sooner rather than later that he won’t seek another term in what has quickly become a hotly contested seat for embattled Republicans. Fossella was not voting in the House Wednesday. […]
GOP aides speaking on the condition of anonymity said they expected Fossella would announce imminently that he won’t seek reelection. But Fossella spokesman Craig Donner tells the Sleuth that no announcement or press conference is planned.
The last thing that the GOP needs is an open seat battle in this D+0.8 district. On both a macro and a micro level, this year is shaping up to be a major disaster for the GOP.
The Washington Post blog is running with a report that Vito Fossella will not seek re-election.
GOP aides speaking on the condition of anonymity said they expected Fossella would announce imminently that he won’t seek reelection. But Fossella spokesman Craig Donner tells the Sleuth that no announcement or press conference is planned.
It looks to me like national Republicans are doing what they can to push him out sooner rather than later. In any case, he is damaged goods and they are looking to make a fresh start. We are going to have an open seat on our hands and we better recruit vert quickly.
[crossposted in part at Loaded Orygun, Oregon’s progressive community…]
Not having a second home or Chuck Schumer to rely on, yesterday Steve Novick made one more personal appeal to supporters in the primary, giving the whip to Seabiscuit as it were: help me close strong.
It sure is working; the Novick campaign today announced a quadfecta of eye-raising numbers for the supposed underdog:
Over $1 million now raised for the cycle
Just under $139,000 in April, a monthly pace 21% higher than for the three months of Q1 (which itself was 57% higher than Q4 last year)
A whopping $30,000 raised just since MONDAY.
Over $500,000 raised so far via ActBlue
From the campaign:
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick's campaign announced today that it raised $138,983.98 in April 2008, passing the $1 million mark to raise $1,028,435.94 the election cycle.
"Our fundraising continued to accelerate in April with the vast majority of our support coming from right here in the state of Oregon," said Jake Weigler, Novick campaign manager. "We've proven that a grassroots campaign can attract the other green stuff too."
Novick's contributions continued to come overwhelmingly from Oregon, with $107,819.68 (77.5 percent) coming from within the state. Overall, 963 contributors gave to the campaign in April, 817 from Oregon. Previously, in the first quarter of 2008, Novick outraised primary opponent Jeff Merkley by 42 percent in itemized contributions from Oregon ($187,722.92 to $131,734.16).
Novick also continues to receive substantial online support from netroots donors. The campaign has raised over $30,000 online since Monday, bringing the total raised through the online Democratic clearinghouse ActBlue to over $500,000. Novick is currently the third highest U.S. Senate candidate in the nation on ActBlue, behind only Mark Warner of Virginia and Rick Noriega of Texas.
"When you look at how far Steve and the campaign have come, it is a rather remarkable journey," said Weigler. "He entered this race as an underdog placeholder. Today he's raised over $1 million and continues to lead in every public poll in the race.People across Oregon are ready for a principled progressive who isn't afraid to tell the truth about what it will take to turn our country around."
[emph mine]
With fewer than two weeks until ballots are counted, money for advertising and GOTV is crucial. Also valuable as information, is the fundraising appeal power of the candidates with an eye towards the general election. Looks like there’s a late kick going on at the Novick camp.
Update: The DCCC has filed yet another complaint with the FEC against Freedom’s Watch:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is accusing Freedom’s Watch of failing to disclose more than $600,000 worth of television ads in Louisiana and Mississippi special elections.
In a Federal Election Commission complaint filed Wednesday, the DCCC alleges that the outside conservative group “aired multiple electioneering communications without filing reports with the commission,” specifically television spots starting April 22 and April 29 that “clearly identified, and advocated the defeat” of now-Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.).
Cazayoux defeated ex-state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) last Saturday in a special election to replace retired Rep. Richard Baker (R-La.).
The DCCC also alleges a similar misdeed by Freedom’s Watch in neighboring Mississippi, where “on May 2nd, Freedom’s Watch began to air a television advertisement that clearly identified, and advocates the defeat of, Congressional candidate Travis Childers (D).”
Word on the street is that former senator and 1972 Democratic Presidential Nominee George McGovern has switched his endorsement from Clinton to Obama. He’s even asking – nay, urging – her to drop out.
Methinks that we’ll see a lot more of this happening.
It has been a rocky road in Kentucky’s Democratic Senate Primary. First, we kept losing candidates as the establishment lined it up for Bruce Lunsford. I actually lost interest in the race knowing I would vote my straight ticket in the fall. Now it seems we will be able to mount a successful Progressive challenge after all. That is because Greg Fischer has stepped to the plate and is charging to the finish. This race is heating up and has begun to tighten.
In exchanges yesterday and today, these campaigns kept slugging it out. First, Bruce Lunsford released this:
LOUISVILLE – In a stunning display of hypocrisy, U.S. Senate candidate Greg Fischer touted his record as “an open book,” yet he failed to file his Personal Financial Disclosure (PFD) report with the Senate Ethics Committee until 11 days after the deadline.
Fischer has repeatedly attacked fellow Democrat Bruce Lunsford for his management of Vencor and spread false information about Lunsford’s business record. Yet, when Fischer finally filed his PFD, it revealed he has investments in five different publicly traded funds which invest in either Ventas or Kindred – both corporate descendants of Vencor.
“Greg Fischer has gone against the will of Kentucky’s voters and Democratic leaders by taking a page out of Mitch McConnell’s playbook, slinging mud at his fellow Democrat Bruce Lunsford rather than focusing on what he would do as Senator to improve the lives of Kentucky families,” Lunsford spokesperson Allison Haley said. “The fact that all the while, Fischer has investments in the very companies he claims Bruce ran into the ground makes Fischer’s actions the ultimate hypocrisy.”
Senate ethics rules require all candidates in the Kentucky Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate to submit their PFD form to the Senate Ethic Committee 30 days before the election. Greg Fischer didn’t even sign his form until more than a week after the deadline and then took an additional three days to send it in.
Examination of Fischer’s PFD shows his investment portfolio includes public funds that have a combined total investment of over $26 million in Ventas and Kindred.
“If I were Greg Fischer, I wouldn’t want the public to know I had been investing in the same companies I was openly criticizing either. Maybe that’s why he waited so long to file his PFD.,” Haley said. “What else is he hiding?”
LOUISVILLE, May 6, 2008 – Kim Geveden, Political Director for Greg Fischer’s U.S. Senate campaign blasted Lunsford’s Swift-Boat-Style attack yesterday saying. “Bruce Lunsford’s latest negative attack against Greg Fischer is as false as it its ridiculous and desperate. It looks like it could have been authored by Mitch McConnell.
“You know Lunsford is desperate when he reverts to his true Republican roots and takes a page from his 2003 playbook in which he spent $8 million falsely attacking Ben Chandler, only to quit, desert our Democratic Party, stand with Mitch McConnell and publicly endorse Ernie Fletcher,” Geveden said.
“Confronted with independent poll results showing Fischer gaining rapidly, Bruce Lunsford has abandoned his much touted “Integrity Pledge” and is once again falsely attacking an honorable Democrat in Greg Fischer, while desperately trying to stop the political hemorrhaging that threatens his ego and quest for the Democratic nomination.”
The campaign added this “fact sheet” to counter Lunsford’s claims:
Lunsford’s False Claim:
“Fischer has investments in the very companies (Ventas and Kindred Healthcare) he claims Bruce ran into the ground.”
Fischer Fact:
Fischer has no direct or indirect investment in Vencor, the company that Bruce Lunsford ran into the ground and bankrupted. Lunsford’s mismanagement of Vencor in the period leading up to its bankruptcy is well-documented and includes charges of patient abuse and falsely billing the federal government.
Fischer Fact:
Ventas and Kindred have absolutely nothing to do with Bruce Lunsford’s mismanagement of Vencor. Bruce Lunsford has absolutely no managing control over either Ventas or Kindred. Lunsford’s is attempting to use Kindred and Ventas as a smoke-screen to hide his appalling behavior as CEO of Vencor.
Fischer Fact:
Fischer holds no direct investment in Ventas or Kindred – The truth is, Fischer owns shares in two mutual investment funds – iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund and iShares Russell 2000 Value Fund. Ventas and Kindred make up an extremely small fraction of the holdings of the two funds.
Fischer Fact:
Fischer owns 5,500 shares of iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund. At market close yesterday, the Ventas portion of Fischer’s investment in the fund was valued at $289.18.
Fischer Fact:
Fischer owns 1,300 shares of iShares Russell 2000 Value Fund. At market close yesterday, the Kindred portion of Fischer’s investment in the fund was valued at $113.47
All this comes at the same time a new SurveyUsa poll is released which shows Fischer creep steadily up the polls as time runs quickly away:
Two Weeks Out, Lunsford Still Well in Front in KY Dem Senate Primary: In a Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky today, 05/06/08, 2 weeks until the primary, Bruce Lunsford defeats Greg Fischer, 41% to 22%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Five other candidates are in single digits. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Fischer is up 4, Lunsford is down 2. Among men, three weeks ago, Lunsford led by 40 points; one week ago, by 21; today, by 20. Among women, Lunsford led by 35, by 27, and now by 19. Among voters 50+, Lunsford led by 44, by 21, and now by 14. The winner of the 05/20/08 closed Democratic Primary advances to face incumbent Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the U.S. Senate, who is running for his 5th term.
The Political Director of Fischer’s campaign had this to say about the new numbers, showing a steady rise for Fischer:
The polling trends clearly shows that Bruce Lunsford is a fatally flawed candidate,” said Kim Geveden, political director for the Fischer campaign. Matt Stoller, a nationally prominent political commentator who regularly appears on CNN and other national news broadcasts, has described Lunsford as, “…definitely the worst Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in the country.”
She then went on to explain this sentiment which is shared by many Kentuckians including myself:
“Kentucky Democrats are starting to focus on this race. They’re learning more about Greg Fischer. And they’re remembering Lunsford’s defection to the Republican party in 2003 and his support of Republican Ernie Fletcher for governor.” said Geveden. “The conclusion they’re coming to is the obvious one: Greg Fischer is the best Democratic candidate in this race and he’ll give Mitch McConnell more than he’s bargained for in the general election this fall.”
Now, Ms. Geveden summed up nicely how I feel about Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer. I don’t come upon this opinion lightly. Here are some of Lunsford’s political contributions:
Now, Fischer’s rise in this race has given me hope that we can actually run a candidate I can be proud of, a candidate that hasn’t been fighting against me through all these long years we have been losing here. A candidate that is Progressive, and won’t turn on us if he gets mad.
Greg Fischer believes in our kind of Change:
He tells a truth Kentuckians can believe in:
Please help us avoid risking our support to elect another DINO into the United States Senate. Greg Fischer can still win this race!! All the momentum is his, and he still has time. Two weeks can be an eternity in politics!! Please help us and support Greg here:
The NRCC posted another $44K in expenditures tonight on the race to replace Roger Wicker in Mississippi. The filing includes: $27,000 on direct mail, $4400 on yet another poll, $12,000 on media production, and under $1000 on phone banks. The new expenditures bring the NRCC’s total tab in this R+10 district to $1,031,442.
The DCCC posted $34,000 of their own expenditures here, including $17,000 on direct mail, $12,000 on media production, and $5500 on field organizing and phonebanking. The DCCC has now spent $1,423,302 on this race.
If you’d like to help Democrat Travis Childers hustle out the vote here next week, you know what to do.
Jake Metcalfe is reportedly going to announce tonight tomorrow that he’s dropping out of the race for the U.S. House of Representatives.
Metcalfe has been under pressure to drop out since his political adviser was linked to websites attacking fellow Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz. The adviser, Bill Scannell, resigned last week but never admitted guilt and the websites have remained online.
The controversy over the websites damaged Metcalfe’s reputation, but the real campaign killer was his inability to raise the kind of money necessary to be considered a serious contender. Metcalfe raised less than $50,000 in the first quarter.
Update: KTUU confirms it. An unfortunate end to a campaign that didn’t have to go down the kind of road that it apparently chose to. This race now moves to a two-way primary between ’06 candidate Diane Benson and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz.
Vito Fossella may have been able to survive his recent DWI arrest, but can he survive the upcoming sex scandal?
On the night of Fossella’s arrest, the congressman called on a “very good friend“, a former intelligence officer at the Pentagon, to pick him up from jail:
Fossella, according to a police report, said he was rushing to see his “sick daughter” and take her to the hospital. But, the Republican lawmaker, allegedly blew a 0.17 into the officer’s Breathalyzer – twice the legal limit – and was hauled off to jail.
A few hours later, Fossella called Fay to sign him out of jail.
When asked whether Fay’s 3-year-old was the same girl Fossella had to take to the hospital, his spokeswoman declined to comment.
“That is a demeaning and highly inappropriate question that does not deserve an answer,” said Susan Del Percio, a high-priced public-relations crisis consultant.
But despite the display of normalcy in the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, rumors were swirling behind the scenes that the 43-year-old Congressman might not be able to survive the spate of embarrassing headlines that have blared from New York newspapers since his arrest. […]
Privately, however, political leaders and operatives on both sides of the aisle were beginning to express doubt that Fossella can serve out the remainder of his term – let alone remain politically viable in November.
“I think the realization is beginning to sink in that he can’t last,” said one Washington, D.C., Republican. […]
[A] New York-based GOP consultant who did not want to be named said some Republican insiders have been advised not to defend Fossella too aggressively, for fear that it could hurt the party’s efforts to hold his seat if he chooses to resign or retire.
Already names are floating of possible Republican contenders for Fossella’s seat, such as state Sen. Andrew Lanza and City Councilmen James Oddo and Vincent Ignizio. All are relatively young and quite popular.
Both parties are nervously considering the possibility that a quick Fossella resignation will force a special election to replace him.
If Fossella should resign before July 1st, Gov. Paterson has the option of calling a special election, or he could leave the seat vacant until the next Congress. But if Fossella resigns, and if Paterson calls a special election here, there would be no primary. In what would amount to one of the biggest backroom deals in recent political memory in NYC, party leaders would designate the nominees. And that could spell trouble for current candidates Domenic Recchia and Stephen Harrison:
Although Recchia had more cash on hand than Fossella as of March 31 – $325,000 to $248,000 – his greatest handicap may be the fact he comes from Brooklyn, while most of the Congressional district’s voters are in Staten Island. If there is a special election, it is possible that party leaders from that borough may try to tap one of their own as the nominee – though the top three Democratic elected officials on Staten Island, state Sen. Diane Savino, state Assemblyman Michael Cusick and City Councilman Michael McMahon, have all declined to run against Fossella in the past.
A Fossella resignation would be a once in a lifetime opportunity in this D+0.8 seat. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whispers continue to intensify over the weeks ahead.
Vito Fossella may have been able to survive his recent