Swing State Project

NC-Sen (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Kay Hagan	803,121	60.32
Jim Neal	240,705	18.08

NC-Gov (D):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Beverly Perdue	835,639	55.92
Richard Moore	594,725	39.90

NC-Gov (R):

96 of 100 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Fred Smith	185,817	36.95
Pat McCrory	232,173	46.17

NC-03 (R):

17 of 17 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Walter Jones	22,703	59.52
Joe McLaughlin	15,441	40.48

NC-10 (R):

9 of 10 Counties Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Patrick McHenry	33,020	66.51
Lance Sigmon	16,624	33.49

RESULTS: NC SBE

9:25PM: McCrory is pulling away from Smith for the Gov nod — 47 to 37.

9:22PM: Neal sure got whipped tonight.

8:00PM Eastern: Deliciously mediocre early numbers for McHenry. I don’t want to speak too soon, but this race could be worth watching in the fall — the Democratic candidate, veteran and hero Daniel Johnson, has raised a strong amount of cash so far.

A while back I started my Americans for Ryan ActBlue page to try and raise $1500 for Heather Ryan in Kentucky’s First Congressional District by the time of the primary she is unopposed in on May 20. Well, the great news is fully two weeks before that date, Americans for Ryan crossed the $1500 mark today!!

I can only say thanks to everyone who made this possible. Heather has been staying busy meeting voters, and every penney of this money has been invaluable and put to work immediately!!

I am very proud of the fact that many Kentuckians joined in, and contributed too!! In fact the last contributor that put us over the top was a prominent Kentucky Democrat!! Although I won’t name names, I am so proud to have this person’s support. Lets me know we are doing something right!!

You can bet, grassroots Democrats in this district are going to be fighting hard to expand our Congressional majorities. We have a great candidate, a winning message, and a large percentage of registered Democrats in our district. With support from Democrats all over the country, we will put this race in play!!

Now, just because we passed our goal, doesn’t mean the May 20 fundraiser is over. We will still be holding our contest to see who wins the pinback buttons from JFK’s 1960 election seen here:

Anyone who contributed on or before May 20 is automatically entered in a drawing for this small piece of history.

Due to the hard work of Heather Ryan and the generosity of our fellow Democrats, we are going to win this race!! Keep the momentum going here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Thanks so much for making this a success!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

 

IN-Gov (D):

5214 of 5230 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Percent
Jim Schellinger	49.8
Jill Long Thompson	50.2

IN-07 (D):

442 of 445 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Andre Carson	62,815
Woody Myers	32,463
David Orentlicher	28,328
Carolene Mays	10,419

RESULTS: Indianapolis Star | Ft. Wayne Journal-Gazette

1:18PM: With only 26 precincts to go, JLT has pulled ahead by 50.2-48.8… a stunning evening.

12:42PM: And we’re tied at 50-50…

12:25PM: Holy smokes — I can’t believe I overlooked this. In Indiana’s 5th District, incumbent GOPer Dan Burton nearly LOST to challenger John McGoff. Burton won 45,378 votes to McGoff’s 39,305. 2729 votes went to another challenger, Clayton Alfred.

11:54PM: JLT is winning the vote in Lake by a 54-46 margin with 158 of 599 precincts reporting.

11:27PM: As we wait for Lake County to count their votes, here’s a stunning number: In 2004, 969,000 people in Indiana voted for John Kerry. Tonight, 1,099,780 Indianans voted for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary.

10:10PM: The Schellinger-JLT race really hinges on the city of Gary and Lake County. The candidate who wins there will win this race. But which one will do so?

9:04PM: Schellinger just pulled into the lead!

8:59PM: Schellinger has closed the gap to 49.3-50.7 with about 60% of precincts reporting.

8:47PM: Carson just put his race away.

8:13PM: Maybe I spoke too soon. With less than 40% of precincts reporting, Schellinger has closed the gap to 48.3-51.7.

7:46PM: Damn, Carson is in a tight three-way race with Orentlicher and and Myers. This one should be close.

7:41PM: JLT is pulling roughly even with Schellinger in Marion County (Indianapolis) so far. I’m not sure that Schellinger has enough mojo in southern Indiana to do this thing tonight.

6:41PM Eastern: A close race in IN-Gov so far, 50.5-49.5 for JLT. Schellinger is doing well in south Indiana so far, while JLT has the lead in the northern counties.

Polls close in Indiana at 6pm Eastern and in North Carolina at 7:30pm Eastern (although some metropolitan areas may keep their polls open until 8:30), so there’s still plenty of time to post your predictions for tonight’s contests.

We ran through the races worth watching in these two states last week, but the contests that we’ll be following are:

IN-Gov (D): Jill Long Thompson v. Jim Schellinger

IN-07 (D): Andre Carson v. Woody Myers (and others)

NC-Sen (D): Kay Hagan v. Jim Neal

NC-Gov (D & R): Beverly Perdue v. Richard Moore; Fred Smith v. Pat McCrory (and others)

NC-03 (R): Walter Jones v. Joe McLaughlin

NC-10 (R): Patrick McHenry v. Lance Sigmon

Feel free to post your predictions for these races in the comments.  Oh, and if you insist, you can give your presidential guesses as well.  Have at it.

So I realized that so far, the Senate races I’ve been following have all been in low-population states with relatively cheap media markets: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

Now, I have to figure out how to “scale up” my interpretations of information–fundraising, cash-on-hand, poll numbers, poll undecideds, (dis)approval/familiarity ratings…

Like, for example, a 10-point deficit in poll numbers is one thing in Nebraska, but is it the same thing in Texas?  If not, how does it depend on money and candidate familiarity?  Obviously, I’m thinking about the fact there’s a ton more people in Texas, and the media markets probably cost more (I know that Alaska and Idaho have cheap media markets, though I’m not sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma).

Got any suggestions?

SurveyUSA (5/3-5, likely voters, 4/26-28 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 41 (43)

Greg Fischer (D): 22 (18)

Others: 32 (32)

Undecided: 4 (6)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Fischer continues to tick upward, but he’s got 20 points to make up in a two week time span.

Lunsford clearly has a ceiling, but is Fischer running a strong enough campaign to exploit it?  I have my doubts.

Primary: 5/20.

From The Hill:

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) chastised his colleagues Tuesday for not contributing to the GOP candidate in an increasingly crucial Mississippi special election, saying those who have not helped “ought to be ashamed of themselves,” Republican sources said.

The harsh admonition from the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was the latest rallying cry from GOP campaigners, who have repeatedly cited a lack of enthusiasm and giving from members. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his colleagues earlier this year that they needed to get off their “dead asses” and raise money for the NRCC. […]

In another conservative district in Mississippi, the vast majority of members have not given to Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), even after he nearly lost to Democrat Travis Childers late last month.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

This whole Attorney General Marc Dann situation gets harder and harder to stomach with each passing day. I’m glad this statement hit my desk before I read it somewhere else.

State Senator John Boccieri: Attorney General Marc Dann should resign Immediately

Today State Senator John Boccieri, Democratic candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, called for Attorney General Marc Dann to resign from office:

“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.

“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”

Ohio has been subjected to statement after statement from Dann defending his staff and himself. As a “reasonable person”, and that will matter. I have stand with Senator John Boccieri on this whole case…It is what it is! One doesn’t comb transcripts and walk away with some false sense of reality. Personally, I think Ohio’s 16th Congressional District Democratic Candidate State Senator Major John Boccieri has done the smart thing…he held back and read the facts before coming to a conclusion and he has distanced himself from the epicenter of the after-shocks yet to come.

Races to Watch:

Ratings Changes Since 3/24 (prior ratings):

AK-AL (Young): Leans Democratic to Tossup

Alright, a mistake’s a mistake. Nothing changed here since the last time we posted these ratings, but the truth of it is: “Leans Democratic” is getting a bit too ahead of ourselves here. Sure, Young may be lagging behind his Democratic challengers in every public poll since the fall, but this is an awfully red state that has broken Democratic hearts before. Moreover, it’s still unclear if Young will make his way back onto the November ballot. A tossup this shall remain, for now.

LA-06 (Cazayoux): Tossup to Leans Democratic

Don Cazayoux’s newfound incumbency advantage, however small, and the unclear nature of the GOP field in this district gives him the advantage for the time being. However, if the GOP nominates a strong candidate, or if Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson pursues his independent candidacy, this rating will likely have to be revisited.

MS-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Tossup

An undeniable tossup. Democrat Travis Childers stunned the Beltway crowd by posting a 49%-46% lead in the special primary here, and the GOP has reacted with ferocious desperation.

NJ-05 (Garrett): Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Rabbi Dennis Shulman has shown some strong early signs of viability here. At the end of March, he was sitting on $246K cash-on-hand to Garrett’s lackluster $458K. Between Shulman’s compelling profile and Garrett’s ultra-conservative record, this race definitely deserves to be added to the big board.

OH-14 (LaTourette): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch

LaTourette, who occupies a competitive, R+2.2 distirct, may look like a compelling target on paper, but Democrat Bill O’Neill (who, in 2006, ran for state Supreme Court on a “no money” campaign and platform) has been a weak fundraiser so far. With O’Neill holding less than $50K on-hand, we have to take LaTourette off the board for now.

PA-18 (Murphy): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch

Democrats made noises early on in the cycle about giving Murphy a stiff challenge in this R+2.2 district. But the none of the candidates who ran for the Democratic nomination caught much fire here, and the presumed front runner, consultant Beth Hafer, lost her primary to businessman Steve O’Donnell. O’Donnell has given his campaign a little bit of money, but he hasn’t shown any fundraising prowess so far. This one moves off the big board until he shows us more.

TX-22 (Lampson): Leans Democratic to Tossup

Republicans dodged a major bullet here by not nominating the ridiculous Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Pete Olson may not be anything remarkable, but he doesn’t need to be in a district this red (R+14.5).

What’s your take?