Swing State Project

We may be engaged in an uphill fight here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, but hey, we ARE fighting!! It appears that our opponent, Ed Whitfield realizes he has a battle in front of him. He knows Democrats here have no stomach for conceding this district yet again. His actions are showing, he may very well be feeling the heat!!

Shortly after this speech:

Exxon Eddie started releasing statements about all the good he is doing for the Citizens of this district. He even got a website:

http://www.whitfieldforcongres…

Go there if you need a good laugh.

Yes, Exxon Eddie has been trying to clean up his record of rubber-stamping every failed policy thought of in the distorted world of George W. Bush. Here at Ryan for Kentucky, we live with the consequences of Ed Whitfield as our Representative for far to long to buy it. Our leader, Heather Ryan sure doesn’t. She recently released this statement, ripping Whitfield for his failed leadership for the people of this district:

As of late, Republican Congressman Ed Whitfield’s staff has felt the need to press release every action that the “Absentee Representative” makes.

Within the past 48 hours, they expressed his desire to cowtow to the Bush Administration by cutting funding for farm subsidy programs, which include Food Stamp benefits for the poor, and just a few hours later, released Mr. Whitfield’s support of legislation that would allow a credit for the cost of gasoline when we file taxes in 2009.

Being a mother, I tend to be a “giver”, so certainly, I am happy to assist Mr. Whitfield with his apparent need to connect to middle class. Putting food on the table, the ability to get to and from work and buying the prescriptions for which our families rely are all top priorities for average folk, like us.

These are all pressing issues that must be addressed NOW, not next year when Mr. Whitfield proposes we should receive a “rebate” on the price of gas, assuming we all save our $4.00 a gallon receipts from Exxon. Of course, he does not know from where the money for said rebate will materialize and I have yet to read about what he plans to do about the rising cost of everything else, including food, clothing, airline tickets and the like as a result of the soaring price of gas.

Perhaps Mr. Whitfield might entertain a “Windfall Profits” tax on oil companies such as Exxon and Mobile during this time of their blatant war profiteering?

But then again, Exxon and Mobile are but a few major donors to his re-election campaign and he owns in the arena of $250,000 in Exxon stock alone. It does not financially benefit him or his “friends” to impose a tax on the companies who have waged an all out assault on the poor and middle class, so don’t expect a windfall tax on the horizon as long as Whitfield is at the helm.

When an elitist Republican proposes that we should strip funding for crumbling infrastructure as a solution to Middle Class pain, we should be incensed and insulted. I hope the voters remember this pandering to the oil companies on November 4th,

I couldn’t agree with her more, and I am proud to have this young lady running for Congress in my district. She is just the sort of Democrat we need in the House, she is proud of our ideals and not afraid to run on and fight for them. If we get the resources to get her message out there, we win and expand our Congressional majorities. Better yet, we do it with a grassroots “fighting Democrat” who is beholden to us, and noone else.

Here she is talking about the promise of Renewable Energy:

Now, we have already been able to raise some funds. However, we are facing an opponent with a cool mil in Special Interest money in the bank to run on. If we can come up with just a fraction of that we win, it just takes getting the sorry record of Whitfield out to the citizens of our district and introducing them to Heather.

With that in mind I started AmericansforRyan to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20, Kentucky’s primary. Now, she is unopposed in that primary, but I want her to have funds to hit the ground running early in the General, as that could be key to victory. I am over halfway to my goal, and have decided to up the ante. I will take the names of everyone that donates between now and May 20 on my page, and put them in a drawing. To the winning name I will send these two pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK:

Help us make history, and have a chance to own a piece of Democratic history!!

Go here to make a donation and enter:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Research 2000 for KCCI and KCRG (likely voters, 4/21-23):

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 52

Ed Fallon (D): 28

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±5%)

There’s still over a month to go to Iowa’s June 3rd primary, but Boswell has a strong lead so far.  With only $20K cash-on-hand at the start of the month, it looks doubtful that Fallon has the resources he needs to topple Boswell this year.

The NRCC has posted their independent expenditures for the day:

• MS-01: $260,000 on media buys against Democrat Travis Childers, and $15,000 on producing the ads.
• LA-06: $53,000 on direct mail against Democrat Don Cazayoux, and $8800 on another poll in this district.

The new expenditures in MS-01 add up to $570,518 spent by the NRCC, with $276,588 of that spent during the runoff period.  The NRCC’s total bill in LA-06 is $312,206 — but they’ve also been aided by huge infusions of cash by Freedom’s Watch and the Club For Growth.

Here at SSP, we’re not sitting idly by while the NRCC smears and distorts the truth in an attempt to cling to life in deep red districts like these.  You’ve helped us raise over $1000 for Travis Childers in barely over a day.  If you haven’t done so already, please help give Childers the resources he needs to win.

Update: The DCCC just posted a few expenditures of their own, including $2900 on field organizing, $16K on direct mail, and $9K on ad production in LA-06.  They also spent $13K on media production in MS-01.

The deadline for congressional candidates in Indiana and North Carolina to file their extended first quarter fundraising reports passed last night.  Let’s take a look at the notable numbers (all figures are in the thousands):

A few notes:

• Andre Carson’s numbers cover 2/21-4/16, while Jon Elrod’s cover 2/21-3/31.
• All other filings cover the period from 1/1-4/16.

Nels Ackerson and Michael Montagano continue to impress in deep red districts (R+17.5 and R+16.3, respectively).  Daniel Johnson, a Democrat running against the odious Patrick McHenry, is also raising a very respectable amount of money.  Democrats truly are blessed with a deep second tier of challengers this year.

On another note, Larry Kissell’s slow fundraising pace ($106K raised, $131K cash on hand) continues to be weak, despite his presence on the DCCC’s Red to Blue program.  Kissell needs to find money fast, because he won’t have the benefit of a surprise attack this cycle.  For a top tier race, we need to be doing better here.

The House race in Georgia’s 12th district just got a lot more interesting: after winning by 800-some votes in 2006, it was looking like John Barrow would get an almost-free ride against a third-tier GOP challenger with little money. However, Barrow is now getting a plausible challenge… in the primary. State Senator Regina Thomas is running against him.

Barrow is a Blue Dog, and has one of the most conservative records among House Democrats, by any measure: his Progressive Punch score for the 07-08 session is currently 67.80%, the lowest of any Dem. His Progressive Punch Chips are Down score is only 31.22%, 3rd worst of any Dem. National Journal’s score for him for the 2007 session was 45.8, which is also 3rd worst of the Dems, and actually more conservative than three Republicans. But unlike Blue Dogs with similar track records, who sit in districts that are R+10 or worse, Barrow is in a Democratic-leaning district (D+2). He’s one of the most glaring instances of a rep out of his step with his district’s lean.

Regina Thomas (no campaign site yet; this is her senate site) has been a state senator since 2000, representing part of Savannah. The 12th is bookended by the African-American parts of Augusta and Savannah, and contains a lot of rural territory in between.

The district is 44% African-American, so in all likelihood African-Americans make up well more than half of the Democratic electorate. (Thomas is African-American; Barrow is white.) Unlike Barrow, for starters, she’s opposed to the war in Iraq and pro-choice.

Ordinarily, I’m kind of lukewarm about running primary challenges against Blue Dogs and their ilk, but this race is something of a unique opportunity: perhaps the single most egregious example of a very conservative Dem in a Dem-leaning district, a viable challenger who already represents a sizable portion of the district as state senator, and unlike Lipinski vs. Pera, no urban machine propping up the incumbent. Thomas lacks two main things: probably very few people in the rest of the district (like Augusta, which will be key) know who she is… and money (as far as I can tell, she has none).

We had a good haul yesterday in our efforts to “max out” to Travis Childers: twelve donations, $656 raised. That puts us about a quarter of the way toward our $2,300 goal.

What I’d like to see SSP do today is increase our number of donors by half – so, six more contributions by the end of the day. I usually prefer donor goals rather than dollar goals, but with the run-off less than three weeks away, it’s really the almighty dollar (rather than building up donor lists) that matters most.

But for today, at least, let’s focus on donations, not total amounts raised. After all, if Childers wins next month, he’ll still have a fierce race on his hands come November – and a big list of small donors will be invaluable. So please consider contributing today, no matter the size. The DCCC is stepping up, and so that means we need to put our money where are mouths are, too.

Update (Trent): Perhaps we underestimated y’all; we’ve already met today’s fundraising goal and it’s not even lunchtime. We’ve now raised over $900 from 18 folks; let’s try to make it to $1000 by day’s end. Every little bit helps get us closer to a Democratic majority in Mississippi’s congressional delegation (how sweet that would be!).

Update (Trent): Once again we’ve cleared the bar, having raised over $1000 for Travis Childers in little more than a day. Let’s all give ourselves a pat on the back, but we’ve got a ways to go before reaching our ultimate goal of $2300, the equivalent of one maxed-out contribution.

The DCCC just came in big in Mississippi tonight, dropping $219,234 on a media buy against GOP candidate Greg Davis.  The new expenditures bring their total tab in this district to $360K.

The DCCC is in to win, but let’s help Travis Childers seal the deal.  Can we raise $2300 to help give the Childers campaign the resources they need to win on May 13th?

Here at Ryan for Kentucky we have a great candidate who understands we need fundamental change in this district, state and indeed our country. Unlike her opponent, Exxon Ed Whitfield, she is not beholden to the corporate interests that impede progress in this country. She is beholden to her neighbors, who are falling further and further behind due to stagnant wages and the inflation of necessary goods and services due to the record profits of Big Oil. Profits Exxon Eddie is invested in.

We can never depend on people that actually profit from the status-quo to bring about change in this country. We not only need to expand our Congressional majorities, we need to do it with new and better Democrats who won’t forget where they came from, and will fight for us in Washington D.C.

Heather Ryan is just such a Democrat. She knows the problems the disasterous policies of the last seven years have caused everyday working Americans because she lives and works among us. Lets catch up with her on the campaign trail:

I think Heather should keep nailing it home about high gas prices. While Americans fall further behind, gas prices continue to skyrocket along with the corporate profits of Exxon and Chevron, which Exxon Ed Whitfield is invested in. Worse than being merely invested in them, Exxon Eddie has fought for tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer funded corporate welfare for them. We definately need change.

Which brings us to the next subject. Renewable Energy holds much promise for our country, and especially our state. We need to invest in this promising new field, instead of pumping more money into corporations that break our backs with their corporate welfare, while recording record profits.

Heather has different ideas. She wants Kentucky to lead the way in ending our dependence on foriegn oil. She wants to invest in an exciting new industry, an industry where the benefits will be felt by all, not just the Big Oil corporate CEOs. Here is what Heather has to say about renewable energy:

Heather Ryan is young, smart, and energetic. She shares our values and goals, and has been all over this huge district trying to get our message of hope for this district, state, and indeed our nation out. She is the kind of Democrat we can be proud of when elected, as she will fight for us and not sell out her beliefs.

This campaign is picking up serious steam. Everywhere in this district that the 63% of registered Democrats see her, she is picking up new support every day. If you want to see how Democrats react to her when they see and here her for the first time, just watch this speech in front of 3000+ Democrats, most of whom were seeing Heather for the first time:

From what I heard from the people who attended this speech, only Heather and Sen. Clinton recieved standing ovations at this event.

It is plain to me that if we get our message out to our district, we can’t lose. Heather fires up Democrats wherever she appears because they believe in the message she brings. We need your help to keep this campaign going, and gaining momentum as it is now. Please go to this page and support fellow grassroots Democrats who are trying to enact change from the ground up, and expand our Congressional majorities with a Democrat we can be proud of, who will fight for what we believe in:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

No matter who you support in the Presidential, we should all be trying to fight for our country from the ground up.

We need Heather Ryan in the Congress!!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

Freshman Congressman Zack Space, who landed in Congress largely due to the corruption scandal surrounding Bob Ney, coupled with the tarnishing of the Republican state party in Ohio, looks to be in surprisingly solid shape for re-election, prompting Congressional Quarterly to change its rating of the race to “Democrat Favored” from “Leans Democratic.” 

In the middle of the 2006 campaign, Ney withdrew from the race due to his Abramoff-related charges, and was replaced by State Sen. Joy Padgett.  Space defeated Padgett by a lopsided margin, a feat that is not likely to repeat this time around.  Nevertheless, Space finds himself in a strong position right now, with a major fundraising advantage over the relatively unknown Fred Dailey.  While the NRCC has certainly not given up on this race, due to the strong conservative leanings of the district, it looks as if we're in good shape to hang onto this one.

The Swing State Project is doing something that we haven’t done since the early days of Jon Tester’s race in Montana — independently of any other blog, we’re laying our cards down on the table and offering our endorsement and fundraising support to a congressional candidate: Democrat Travis Childers, who is running in the special election to replace Roger Wicker in the House of Representatives.

We’ve had our eye on MS-01 for some time, giving it a competitive rating before any other major prognosticator did so. Travis Childers bore out our projections and then exceeded them, coming just 400 or so votes shy of outright victory in the special election on April 22nd. Now he faces a two-candidate run-off on May 13th. This is a very winnable race, but only if Childers gets all the help he needs.

Childers, the Chancery Clerk of Prentiss County for nearly two decades, is a serious economic populist with true-blue small town Mississippi roots.  He supports S-CHIP, opposes CAFTA and wants us to withdraw our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months.  And he holds these populist positions in a heavily red district: MS-01’s PVI is R+10, and it gave Bush 62% of its vote in 2004.  If Childers can win this seat, it will be a crippling blow to the NRCC, who have spent nearly $300,000 against Childers, only to come up short last Tuesday.  But we can be sure that they’ll be back in full force, doing all they can to hang on to this seat in May.  And that’s why we have to step up and fight back.

Our goal: $2300 for Childers.  In other words, that’s the equivalent of one “maxed out” big dollar donation.

Together, we can do this.  So please support Travis Childers today with whatever you can manage.