Swing State Project

Whoa.  Is the top Democratic candidate challenging GOP Rep. Jon Porter on the verge of dropping out of the race?  That’s what the Ralton Flash says.  Here’s the House Race Hotline (sub. NOT req’d, for now) summary:

Clark Co. prosecutor Robert Daskas (D) is “on verge of dropping out of race” against Rep. Jon Porter (R), according to NV analyst Jon Ralston. An announcement is “expected soon,” but he’s likely to cite “personal reasons” for dropping the race. The DCCC is “already courting” state Senate Min. Leader/’06 GOV nominee Dina Titus (D).

If accurate, this would be a big setback for Democrats.  Daskas’ fundraising pace has been decent, and he’s sitting on $450K cash-on-hand as of April 1st (good enough to earn him a 44% CoH competitiveness rating), and any late-entering challenger would start out well behind the curve in the money race.

Dina Titus has already declined a chance to run against Porter this cycle, so I’m not sure if she’d be a willing replacement here.

If confirmed, this would be a disturbing turn of events in this D+1 district.

UPDATE: Yup, he’s definitely out.  Here’s the statement from the Daskas campaign:

Citing family considerations, Robert Daskas has announced his decision to withdraw his candidacy for Nevada’s Third Congressional District.  The Daskas campaign has every confidence that another strong, viable candidate will enter the race and unseat incumbent Jon Porter.  Daskas thanks everyone for their support and asks supporters to stay focused on the common goal of changing our representative in the Third Congressional District.  Democrats now hold a 22,500 voter registration advantage over Republicans in the district.

Nevada’s filing deadline: May 16

Later Update: The Politico says that Titus is in:

Democrats have already recruited a new candidate, Nevada Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, who may announce as soon as tomorrow that she’s entering the race. Titus has statewide name recognition, and Democrats hope that she can raise enough money quickly to challenge Porter in November.

“Dina Titus would be an excellent candidate with unparalleled experience and support from people in Nevada’s 3rd congressional district,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “Her vision, strength, and ability to get things done for Nevada would make her a powerful voice for change.”

The last 4 months have been exciting and rewarding to travel around the 5th district campaigning.  I’ve learned a lot about the district, the people and myself in the process.  It all came to a climax on Tuesday, April 22nd as the voters in the 5th district went to the polls to select who would be the 2 remaining candidates to continue on to the November 4th general election.

From a personal standpoint, I learned that in politics, the best thing you can do is plan your strategy and stay the course.  You have to be honest with the people, explain where you stand on the issues important to the people you want to represent and trust their instincts when they go to the polls.

As Kelly, Amanda and I watched the election returns on Tuesday evening I couldn’t help but wonder if I had done enough to get our message out to the voters in the 5th district.  Kelly was nervous and Amanda’s only concern was “Is daddy winning?”  At the end of the evening, just after 11:00 PM, both of the area TV stations called the election in our favor.  A short time later, both of my opponents called to offer their congratulations and I gave them both thanks for the positive, clean campaigns they both ran.  

Waking up on Wednesday, I have to admit I was still overwhelmed by results from the night before.  The day found many people calling and stopping in the office to offer congratulations.  In the evening, I traveled to Reynoldsville for the monthly meeting of the Jefferson County Democratic Committee.  It was fitting that I was making my first appearance as the Democratic nominee for 5th district at the same meeting I attended as my first event as an official candidate back in January.  

Of course, the reality is that for everything we accomplished on Tuesday, the real work began on Wednesday morning.  It is going to be busy between now and November 4th.  I’ll continue to keep everyone updated on how the campaign is going.  If you know of any events that we should be attending, please email the campaign and let us know.  Also, if you have any ideas to help reach out to the voters please forward them to the campaign.  

I’ll conclude with this.  Most of the media interviews I had on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning all asked “Can you win this seat in November?”  After about the fifth or sixth time I got the question, I finally responded “We can and we will.”

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Just as we did yesterday for the House race scene, SSP has ranked the Senate races this year in terms of their cash-on-hand competitiveness. This measure reflects the ratio of the challenger’s cash-on-hand to that of the incumbent. The only difference is that this time, in the interest of comprehensiveness, we’ve included several candidates who are defending open seats currently held by their party (marked in italics) and slotted them in the incumbent column — because, hey, we had to stick ’em somewhere. So without further ado:

Rank	State	Candidate	Party	CoH	Incumbent*	Party	CoH	Rating
1	VA	Mark Warner	D	4,384,294	Jim Gilmore	R	208,133	2106%
2	NM	Tom Udall	D	2,582,990	Steve Pearce	R	855,203	302%
3	NM	Tom Udall	D	2,582,990	Heather Wilson	R	1,196,053	216%
4	CO	Mark Udall	D	4,236,533	Bob Schaffer	R	2,160,863	196%
5	ME	Tom Allen	D	2,687,701	Susan Collins	R	4,511,493	60%
6	MN	Al Franken	D	3,491,480	Norm Coleman	R	6,960,913	50%
7	NJ	Rob Andrews	D	2,232,312	Frank Lautenberg	D	4,702,249	47%
8	NH	Jeanne Shaheen	D	1,837,539	John Sununu	R	4,313,762	43%
9	LA	John Kennedy	R	1,623,391	Mary Landrieu	D	4,564,082	36%
10	ID	Larry LaRocco	D	253,707	Jim Risch	R	935,876	27%
11	OK	Andrew Rice	D	597,478	Jim Inhofe	R	2,221,848	27%
12	NE	Scott Kleeb	D	281,095	Mike Johanns	R	1,335,390	21%
13	AK	Mark Begich	D	204,207	Ted Stevens	R	1,318,722	15%
14	IL	Steve Sauerberg	R	1,074,982	Richard Durbin	D	7,567,277	14%
15	MS-B	Ronnie Musgrove	D	337,249	Roger Wicker	R	2,765,229	12%
16	KY	Greg Fischer	D	854,557	Mitch McConnell	R	7,741,422	11%
17	NE	Tony Raimondo	D	140,720	Mike Johanns	R	1,335,390	11%
18	NC	Kay Hagan	D	312,000	Elizabeth Dole	R	3,200,000	10%
19	KS	Jim Slattery	D	286,125	Pat Roberts	R	2,986,794	10%
20	OR	Jeff Merkley	D	473,833	Gordon Smith	R	5,149,251	9%
21	GA	Jim Martin	D	333,132	Saxby Chambliss	R	3,637,392	9%
22	KY	Bruce Lunsford	D	666,373	Mitch McConnell	R	7,741,422	9%
23	TN	Bob Tuke	D	217,093	Lamar Alexander	R	2,874,512	8%
24	SC	Buddy Witherspoon	R	257,911	Lindsey Graham	R	4,777,019	5%
25	OR	Steve Novick	D	197,007	Gordon Smith	R	5,149,251	4%
26	TX	Rick Noriega	D	329,294	John Cornyn	R	8,688,954	4%
27	WY-B	Nick Carter	D	26,743	John Barrasso	R	1,139,381	2%
28	MA	Jim Ogonowski	R	186,929	John Kerry	D	9,323,486	2%
29	AL	Vivian Figures	D	44,628	Jeff Sessions	R	4,033,195	1%
30	SD	Joel Dykstra	R	20,393	Tim Johnson	D	2,523,586	1%
31	MT	Kirk Bushman	R	8,097	Max Baucus	D	6,394,024	0%
32	SD	Sam Kephart	R	2,107	Tim Johnson	D	2,523,586	0%
33	MT	Michael Lange	R	1,976	Max Baucus	D	6,394,024	0%

A few notes:

• There are several incumbent Senators who have either not drawn challengers, or their opponents have not filed FEC reports: Biden (DE), Cochran (MS-A), Enzi (WY), Harkin (IA), Levin (MI), Pryor (AR), Reed (RI), and Rockefeller (WV).
• These numbers were compiled from the National Journal and the Senate Guru.

You already know the basics: Travis Childers supports withdrawing our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months, a timeframe that every serious analyst acknowledges is safe and reasonable. Large majorities are in favor of withdrawal, so it’s especially heartening to see a Democrat in a red district embrace this stance. And it’s one of the many reasons we’re supporting him.

But a Childers win will reverberate far outside MS-01 when it comes to Iraq. Other potentially vulnerable Democrats in conservative areas will be able to look at this race and conclude that if Childers can succeed in an R+10 district running (at least in part) on Iraq withdrawal, they can, too.

This is crucial because Dems are planning to vote on withdrawal once again this year. I think we know Bush won’t budge, but DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen says nuts to that:

“There are some people who would say, ‘OK, why are you going through this exercise again, if the president is going to veto this?’ We have a responsibility to do everything we can to follow through on the changes we say we want made,” Van Hollen said. “I think it is a question of demonstrating where you stand, and what you will do, and continue to push to do, if you are elected in November.”

Van Hollen gets it – it’s about sending the right message. Childers can help send that message with his own vote, but just as importantly, he can also help make it a lot louder by giving fellow Democrats the courage to take the right stand on Iraq. Remember, only six Democrats hold seats as red or redder than MS-01. A Congressman Childers would offer a whole lot of Dems a whole lot of breathing room.

What’s more, I think Childers has figured out a devastatingly effective way to sell his position to voters:

He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

“We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

“We need to help young people get homes. We need to address the mortgage crisis.”

By linking withdrawal from Iraq with a populist appeal that addresses deep concerns about the economy, Childers knocks Republicans back on their heels with a one-two punch. This goes right at core GOP weaknesses, and I think it’s an approach that can play in many districts.

But all of this only matters, of course, if Childers gets elected – which is why we need to do everything we can to help him. Thanks to the generosity of the Swing State Project community, we’ve raised an impressive $1,300 so far. That puts us an even $1,000 away from original goal. But we really have very little time here. The election is only two weeks away, and money received by a campaign in the final week is more difficult to deploy strategically.

So I would really like to see us hit our target by Monday, May 5th. Can we add another $200 today? Let’s do it for Childers – and for our troops.

Update (James): Actblue seems to be have had a few server issues this morning, although things seem to be working fine now.  If you have trouble accessing our fundraising page, please try again a little bit later.

Back in 2006, DavidNYC posted a chart tracking the top 50 House challengers in terms of their cash-on-hand competitiveness. In other words, he divided challenger CoH by incumbent CoH to arrive at a “competitiveness” percentage for each race. It’s a useful measure because, as David said at the time:

If you’ve got $500K, that’s all well-and-good – but your opponent has $2M, then you’ve got a lot of ground to make up.

So let’s take a look at the top 75 non-open seat House races this cycle in terms of each challenger’s cash-on-hand competitiveness, listed on the far right. You’ll notice that of the top ten challengers, eight of them are Democrats. Only 26 of the top 75 challengers are Republicans.

Rank	District	Challenger	Party	CoH	Incumbent	Party	CoH	Chal. %age
1	ID-01	Minnick	D	327,909	Sali	R	124,191	264%
2	TX-07	Skelly	D	666,506	Culberson	R	270,726	246%
3	NY-29	Massa	D	565,320	Kuhl	R	365,722	155%
4	WA-08	Burner	D	921,615	Reichert	R	698,035	132%
5	NY-13	Recchia	D	325,175	Fossella	R	248,496	131%
6	MI-07	Schauer	D	751,359	Walberg	R	604,466	124%
7	OH-02	Wulsin	D	212,410	Schmidt	R	176,670	120%
8	FL-24	Kosmas	D	580,940	Feeney	R	549,237	106%
9	GA-13	Honeycutt	R	206,033	Scott	D	195,432	105%
10	TN-04	Lankford	R	201,117	Davis	D	199,306	101%
11	VA-10	Feder	D	700,046	Wolf	R	715,954	98%
12	CT-04	Himes	D	1,105,211	Shays	R	1,137,726	97%
13	NH-01	Bradley	R	516,105	Shea-Porter	D	545,837	95%
14	IN-03	Montagano	D	267,771	Souder	R	293,000	91%
15	VA-05	Perriello	D	500,274	Goode	R	593,133	84%
16	MO-06	Barnes	D	954,363	Graves	R	1,132,310	84%
17	SC-02	Miller	D	203,475	Wilson	R	255,765	80%
18	AZ-03	Lord	D	632,485	Shadegg	R	937,672	67%
19	KS-02	Jenkins	R	486,228	Boyda	D	811,225	60%
20	FL-09	Dicks	D	312,402	Bilirakis	R	521,511	60%
21	FL-16	Valeche	R	589,380	Mahoney	D	1,032,397	57%
22	KS-02	Ryun	R	459,048	Boyda	D	811,225	57%
23	WI-08	Gard	R	427,903	Kagen	D	760,112	56%
24	NJ-05	Shulman	D	245,549	Garrett	R	457,521	54%
25	CA-50	Leibham	D	239,584	Bilbray	R	449,284	53%
26	KY-03	Northup	R	428,205	Yarmuth	D	811,722	53%
27	NC-10	Johnson	D	166,188	McHenry	R	325,663	51%
28	IL-14	Oberweis	R	132,717	Foster	D	262,939	50%
29	OH-01	Driehaus	D	567,302	Chabot	R	1,132,939	50%
30	MI-09	Peters	D	644,931	Knollenberg	R	1,336,212	48%
31	AK-AL	Berkowitz	D	287,306	Young	R	604,268	48%
32	NH-01	Stephen	R	257,871	Shea-Porter	D	545,837	47%
33	CA-11	Andal	R	531,817	McNerney	D	1,153,586	46%
34	AZ-05	Schweikert	R	514,092	Mitchell	D	1,121,680	46%
35	NV-03	Daskas	D	453,213	Porter	R	1,033,693	44%
36	FL-08	Stuart	D	316,211	Keller	R	735,113	43%
37	FL-16	Rooney	R	442,345	Mahoney	D	1,032,397	43%
38	FL-25	Garcia	D	316,069	M. Diaz-Balart	R	747,694	42%
39	FL-21	Martinez	D	592,605	L. Diaz-Balart	R	1,451,793	41%
40	FL-08	Smith	D	295,667	Keller	R	735,113	40%
41	FL-13	Jennings	D	446,436	Buchanan	R	1,123,318	40%
42	TX-10	Doherty	D	122,453	McCaul	R	318,097	38%
43	TN-09	Tinker	D	227,629	Cohen	D	605,292	38%
44	VA-02	Nye	D	222,936	Drake	R	593,620	38%
45	NY-20	Treadwell	R	928,931	Gillibrand	D	2,474,445	38%
46	CO-04	Markey	D	376,372	Musgrave	R	1,014,007	37%
47	NY-13	Harrison	D	91,131	Fossella	R	248,496	37%
48	KS-03	Jordan	R	307,599	Moore	D	889,584	35%
49	GA-08	Goddard	R	403,825	Marshall	D	1,186,917	34%
50	IL-10	Seals	D	745,275	Kirk	R	2,252,039	33%
51	WV-02	Barth	D	305,388	Capito	R	926,562	33%
52	AZ-05	Ogsbury	R	353,094	Mitchell	D	1,121,680	31%
53	AZ-08	Bee	R	525,439	Giffords	D	1,672,821	31%
54	IN-09	Sodrel	R	308,643	Hill	D	991,212	31%
55	IN-04	Ackerson	D	149,899	Buyer	R	492,373	30%
56	CA-45	Bornstein	D	104,267	Bono Mack	R	344,124	30%
57	PA-04	Hart	R	393,396	Altmire	D	1,305,875	30%
58	PA-15	Bennett	D	182,829	Dent	R	615,534	30%
59	CT-05	Cappiello	R	420,316	Murphy	D	1,544,639	27%
60	NJ-05	Abate	D	116,215	Garrett	R	457,521	25%
61	PA-08	Manion	R	416,736	Murphy	D	1,659,350	25%
62	FL-16	Harrell	R	256,151	Mahoney	D	1,032,397	25%
63	PA-06	Roggio	D	168,258	Gerlach	R	714,579	24%
64	AL-03	Segall	D	223,616	Rogers	R	957,067	23%
65	PA-18	O’Donnell	D	200,485	Murphy	R	876,171	23%
66	IN-02	Puckett	R	155,266	Donnelly	D	715,526	22%
67	OH-03	Mitakides	D	100,888	Turner	R	496,409	20%
68	IL-13	Harper	D	103,463	Biggert	R	511,741	20%
69	NJ-04	Zeitz	D	90,770	Smith	R	468,385	19%
70	PA-10	Hackett	R	174,569	Carney	D	966,458	18%
71	FL-18	Taddeo	D	300,532	Ros-Lehtinen	R	1,722,168	17%
72	IL-06	Morgenthaler	D	163,458	Roskam	R	967,286	17%
73	NV-02	Derby	D	133,763	Heller	R	808,384	17%
74	IA-02	Miller-Meeks	R	68,619	Loebsack	D	425,501	16%
75	IA-04	Meyer	D	108,605	Latham	R	677,601	16%

George Bush meets an old friend during his latest visit to Connecticut:

(H/T: tparty)

From the Associated Press:

Sen. Mike Enzi announced Saturday that he is running for a third term.

There had been speculation that Enzi would not seek re-election after he was passed over for a seat on the powerful Senate Finance Committee earlier this year.

Enzi made his announcement at the Gillette City Hall. He spent more than 10 minutes speaking about his achievements and thanking his supporters before he made clear that he is running.

I’m mildly surprised, considering that Enzi’s had a pretty lousy time lately in the Senate, getting passed over for an assignment on the Finance Committee by his GOP colleagues.

Research 2000 (4/21-24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48

Jim Schellinger (D): 42

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±5%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

Jill Long Thompson (D): 45

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 10

(n=600)

These numbers are awfully similar to the last poll of this race by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics — Thompson seems to have a small edge in the primary, while both potential November match-ups are dead heats.

Why haven’t you given to Travis Childers yet?

Feel free to comment, share opinions.  There are a lot more house races and it’s harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races.  I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.  

I also don’t want the diary to be too long, so I’m not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP’s two diaries.  

Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (Everything except IN and NC)

And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (IN and NC)

*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat

DCCC’s Red to Blue List: http://www.dccc.org/page/conte…

====House Republicans====

1. New York-25***  (D+3)

Dan Maffei v. ???

2. Illinois-11***  (R+1)

Debbie Halvorson v. ???

3. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)

John Adler v. Chris Myers

4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

5. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)

Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman

———————————————————————

6. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

7. Michigan-07 (R+2)

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

8. New York-26*** (R+3)

Jon Powers v. ???

9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

10. Ohio-16*** (R+4)

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

11. Alabama-02*** (R+13)

Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith

———————————————————————

12. Louisiana-06*** (R+7)   Special Election – May 3rd

Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins

13. New York-29 (R+5)

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

14. Washington-08 (D+2)

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

15. Missouri-06 (R+5)

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

16. Florida-24 (R+3)

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

17. Alaska-AL (R+14)

Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young

18. Virginia-11*** (R+1)

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

19. Connecticut-04 (D+5)

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

20. North Carolina-08 (R+3)

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

21. Michigan-09 (R+0)

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

22. Illinois-10 (D+4)

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

23. Virginia-05 (R+6)

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

24. Nevada-03 (D+1)

Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter

25. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

26. Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election – May 13th

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder

28. Colorado-04 (R+9)

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

———————————————————————

29. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

30. Ohio-01 (R+1)

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

31. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

32. California-04*** (R+11)

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

33. Idaho-01 (R+19)

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

34. Ohio-02 (R+13)

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt

35. Arizona-03 (R+6)

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

36. West Virginia-02 (R+5)

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

37. Virginia-02 (R+6)

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

38. Florida-13 (R+4)

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon

39. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

40. Texas-10 (R+13)

Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

———————————————————————

41. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)

Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley  

42. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette

43. New Jersey-05 (R+4)

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

44. Texas-07 (R+16)

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

45. California-50 (R+5)

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

46. Florida-21 (R+6)

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

47. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

48. Nevada-02 (R+8)

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

49. Florida-25 (R+4)

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

50. Alabama-03 (R+4)

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

51. Florida-18 (R+4)

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

52. Illinois-06 (R+3)

Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam

53. Indiana-03 (R+16)

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

54. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

55. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

56. Pennsylvania-03

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

57. Pennsylvania-18

Steve O’Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5)

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

59. Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)

Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson

60. Florida-10 (D+1)

Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young

====House Democrats====

1. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

2. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

3. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

4. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey

———————————————————————

5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

6. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

7. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

8. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

9. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

10. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

11. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

12. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

13. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

14. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

———————————————————————

16. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

17. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

18. Connecticut-02 (D+8)

Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan

19. North Carolina-11 (R+7)

Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

22. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

23. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

24. Indiana-02 (R+4)

Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett

25. Minnesota-01 (R+10)

Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day

26. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Notes:

– In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.  

– 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans

– Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House

– Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)

– Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives

– 25 Retiring Republicans

Tiers:

(Republicans)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup

Tier 2 – Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup

Tier 3 – Races #12-#28 = Toss Up

Tier 4 – Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention

Tier 5 – Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention

(Democrats)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#4 = Toss Up

Tier 2 – Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention

Tier 3 – Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention