Swing State Project

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

LA-06: $115,000 on ad buys against Don Cazayoux and $9000 on a media production.

MS-01: $12,000 on a poll and $10,000 on direct mail against Travis Childers.

The DCCC:

LA-06: $97,000 on ad buys against Woody Jenkins; $31,000 on an ad buy in support of Don Cazayoux; $33,000 on direct mail against Woody Jenkins; $3500 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.

The DCCC has now spent $912,000 on LA-06 to the NRCC’s $436,000.  Bear in mind, though, that the NRCC has had a lot of help from the likes of the Club For Growth and Freedom’s Watch in pounding Cazayoux.  

The NRCC’s total tab in MS-01 is nearing $600K, while the DCCC has spent just over $400K in Mississippi.

On another note, you guys continue to amaze me.  Today, we smashed through our daily goal of $200 and 40 total donors for Travis Childers.  In fact, we raised $378 today from 43 total donors.  We’re not far off from our ultimate goal: $2300 for Childers.  Let’s see if we can hit the $2000 mark by the end of tomorrow on the Childers bat.

Let’s do this thing!

SurveyUSA (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 43 (47)

Greg Fischer (D): 18 (9)

David Williams (D): 7 (8)

James Rice (D): 4 (5)

Ken Stepp (D): 4 (1)

Mike Cassaro (D): 3 (5)

David Wylie (D): 2 (3)

Other: 12 (14)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The new numbers show some movement for Greg Fischer, due in no small part to his recent statewide ad buys introducing himself to voters.  Fischer’s ads are pretty low-key (a few of them can be viewed here, here, and here), and I’m not convinced that they’ll be enough to mount a come-from-behind win here with three weeks left on the clock.

Primary: 5/20.

Since the disaster year of 1994, very few House Democrats have failed to win re-election against Republicans. Below is what I think is a complete list of those who did. If I’m missing anyone, please let us know in comments.

Every Dem who lost in 2002 and 2004 except for Baron Hill was a victim of redistricting. For those with two districts listed, the second one is the seat they were running for after redistricting. (For Sandlin & Thurman, their district numbers didn’t change.) Note that I am not including Dems who lost in primaries to other Dems on this chart.

I must say, that’s a pretty darn good track record – only seven losses not attributable to redistricting through six election cycles. And I think only one of these incumbents (Mike Ward) was a freshman. (Update: Jay Johnson was also a freshman. — JL) What’s more, we’ve regained a lot of these seats (though some of the districts have changed since 2000): KY-03, WI-08, CT-02, and IN-09. Plus, Nick Lampson is back in a district that (TX-22) that partially overlaps his old one.

So what do you know about the names on this list? What lessons, if any, can be drawn from these few elections where Democratic House incumbents lost to Republicans?

Update (James): Looks like we missed one — David Phelps in IL-19.  Thanks to brittain33 in the comments for the catch.

Later Update (James): I added two more redistricting victims (Jim Maloney and Ronnie Shows), thanks to jeffmd in the comments.

The netroots have been pleading with national Democrats for years: If we want to revive the Democratic brand in areas that haven’t been receptive to us for some time, then we need to harken back to our roots and tap into the deep vein of economic populism that runs through this country’s proud history. Yet over the years, too many Dems – fearful of accusations of “class warfare” – have instead sought solace in DLC “third way” politics, alienating both their base and potential converts with a naked embrace of “free” trade, bankruptcy “reform,” and tax cuts for the very wealthiest.

A handful of standout elections in 2006, however, lend a lot of credence to the blogosphere’s view of things. In particular, Jon Tester and Jim Webb won impressive victories in red territory, in large part on the strength of their populist appeals. In a must-read op-ed that appeared in the WSJ shortly after election day, Webb offered a scathing assessment of the growing economic schism in this country, and declared that Congress’s first priority had to be working “to bring true fairness back to economic life.”

Travis Childers also understands that this is job number one. His platform is an unflinching defense of the needs of ordinary Americans. On the economy:

Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs.

The social safety net:

Travis will fight to protect Social Security , oppose privatization, and expand in-home care programs for seniors.

Healthcare:

Travis Childers will fight to improve the quality of healthcare, while lowering costs for working families.  He supports expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.

And these aren’t just statements plastered up on an out-of-the-way website. Childers takes this kind of talk with him on the campaign trail:

“We need to quit depending on foreign oil,” said Childers, who is also Prentiss County’s chancery clerk. “We need to start depending on ourselves and explore alternative energy sources.”

…

“It seems like everyone in Washington is concerned about everything but working-class families,” he said. “I’m concerned about working-class families. I’m concerned about north Mississippians.”

Everywhere he goes:

“We need to strip away the subsidies from ExxonMobil and Big Oil,” Childers said to a question about high gasoline prices. “They’re not going to get a lot of sympathy from me.”

It’s regular folks who have his sympathy – and that’s why Travis Childers needs our help. But as with Iraq, a Childers victory can send a clear message: that running on a populist message works. At the same time, it will help drive a stake through the heart of stale, pernicious DLC-style politics. Childers can continue the line of victories that began with Tester and Webb and show Democrats that the way to bigger majorities this fall requires that we meaningfully address the concerns of average Americans.

As you saw up above at the beginning of this post, ActBlue has deployed a new fundraising thermometer to help us keep track of our goals. (The old-schoolers among us will remember the grand old days of the Dean bats.) And it shows a welcome sign: Because SSP readers dug deep, we hit our goal of $200 today. So let’s try for two more goals today: Let’s get to (at least) 40 total contributors, and let’s add on another $200.

This is money Travis Childers can really use – no strings attached, no costs in raising it, and no time wasted on the phone dialing for dollars. So let’s get him some of this good green!

Pretty interesting observation from CQ Politics.  Four veterans, three of whom fought in Iraq, are all running as Democrats in four different districts in Georgia.  (And actually, First Coast News shows there are five, not four.)

The five are:

GA-01: Bill Gillespie

GA-06: Bill Jones

GA-07: Doug Heckman

GA-10: Bobby Saxon

GA-11: Bud Gammon

First Coast News has more on the candidates.

“When you add all of the guys up together, we’ve probably got close to 75 years of combined military service,” said Bill Jones, a former Air Force officer from Marietta who is planning to launch a campaign this week against Rep. Tom Price of Roswell. “I’m excited about the idea of veterans stepping up and representing the Democratic Party.”

….

Along with Jones, 53, an Air Force Academy graduate and former commercial airline pilot who is now an executive at a technology firm, the candidates are:

— Doug Heckman, 48, of Norcross, a West Point graduate and former Army colonel who served as a senior adviser to the Iraqi military in east Baghdad in 2006 and 2007. Heckman is trying to unseat eight-term Rep. John Linder of Duluth.

— Bill Gillespie, 44, of Tybee Island, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who was a senior logistician during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Gillespie is challenging eight-term Rep. Jack Kingston of Savannah.

— Bobby Saxon, 46, of Nicholson, an Army veteran and Georgia National Guard major who served with the 3rd Infantry Division in Iraq in 2005. Saxon, who runs a software consulting firm, is challenging freshman Rep. Paul Broun of Athens.

— Bud Gammon, 57, of Rome, an Air Force Academy graduate and pilot during the tail end of the Vietnam War. Gammon, now a commercial airline pilot. Gammon is running against three-term Rep. Phil Gingrey of Marietta.

And since we live in the reality-based community, and not the pie-in-the-sky one…

Despite public dissatisfaction with the war, Democratic veterans have not fared well as congressional candidates. In 2006 only a handful won seats, including just one Iraq veteran, Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania — despite the party’s boasting that more than 50 veterans were running.

Let’s keep that in mind before going overboard with optimism.

Still, it is rather interesting that so many Iraq War vets are returning home and running for Congress as Democrats, isn’t it?

Now, for those that have issues outlined on their webpages, I do like what I’ve seen so far, for the most part.  I’m under no illusions that these are Democrats running in the reddest of red districts, and in Georgia, no less.  We shouldn’t expect “liberals”, and if you really want to apply those kinds of litmus tests, then here’s a gun for you to shoot yourself in the foot.

But on the major issues, and on what the Republican Party now stands for, these people get it.

Gillespie said Republicans are trying to capitalize on emotion and patriotism while ignoring the huge costs to the military.

“They are playing the politics of fear, and Americans are tired of it,” said Gillespie. “We’ve been training Iraqi forces for five years. I do not believe the Iraqis cannot stand up and defend themselves.”

Aside from Iraq, the candidates say Georgia’s Republicans — among the most conservative in Congress — are too partisan and, as a result, ineffective.

Heckman, who compares his politics to that of former conservative Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn, says his opponent, Linder, has done little over a 16-year career other than push for a long-shot “Fair Tax” plan to eliminate the IRS and shift to a consumption tax.

“He’s written a couple of books and it’s been a profitable endeavor for him … but can anybody name anything this guy has ever done?” Heckman said, referencing Linder’s books with conservative radio commentator Neal Boortz.

Heckman, especially, is really trying to draw contrasts between himself and incumbent John Linder.  I don’t think many Kossacks will be enamored with Heckman’s calling for a Balanced Budget Amendment, but his explanation for it is a pretty good one, focusing on what we’re doing to our children.

The new budget – the Fiscal 2009 budget – has been submitted by the President and is already in deficit by over $400 BILLION dollars. Unacceptable. Collectively, we can not do this to our children. Or to rephrase, we can, but SHOULD not. The bill will come due someday.  Current politicians know they will probably be gone by then.  I say stop it NOW.

Heckman, while saying he’s “generally” a free market kind of guy, does talk about the uneven playing field, and highlights China as a prime example.  He also chides Linder for not believing in man-made global warming.

Bill Gillespie still has a bare bones issues page, but one thing that caught my eye was his calling for the repeal of No Child Left Behind.  Reminds me of Jon Tester calling for the repeal of the Patriot Act.  No fiddling around with it at the borders, just repeal the entire damn thing.  And the environmentalist in me is intrigued by his “South Georgia Alternative Energy Initiative”.

Saxon talks about providing all Georgia children with healthcare, and making it affordable for everyone else.  Reminds me of what a certain presidential candidate is saying….  He also calls for more Alternative Energy industries working with our top research universities in creating green jobs and making our country more energy independent.

Gammon and Jones don’t have an actual issues page set up yet, so I can’t comment on those.

All in all, yes, these are going to be pretty ridiculous longshots for the Democrats, but this is Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy in action.  Challenge EVERY seat, no matter how red, with credible candidates.  And these veterans are most certainly credible.

Recently the small Western Kentucky town of Sedalia had their “Sedalia Days”, along with a parade. This was an excellent chance for candidates to get to walk the parade route along with the people they wish to represent, and indeed to meet the voters and hear their concerns. Unlike their opponents, Bruce Lunsford, Mitch McConnell and Exxon Ed Whitfield, Heather Ryan and Greg Fischer proved they can truly represent these citizens, by meeting them and listening to their concerns firsthand.

Here is Heather Ryan meeting with grassroots voters:

The great thing about Heather meeting with grassroots voters is when she does, they support her. This couple soon volunteered the services of their Mustang to ride in the parade for Heather:

Thats Heavan, Heather’s daughter and America’s favorite Mitch McConnell antagonist with the sign.

Here is Heather meeting some more of Western Kentucky’s voters, and giving them a Ryan for Kentucky sticker!!:

The parade route was indeed Ryan for Kentucky red and white!!

Here is Heather, husband Carl, and Heavan with another new grassroots Ryan for Kentucky supporter!!:

Not to be outdone by any Mustang, here is the Ryan for Kentucky van, proudly riding the parade route:

See the lastest thoughts of Heather from the campaign trail here:

I recently started Americans for Ryan to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20. I am now over two-thirds of the way there!! To celebrate I have decided that anyone who contributes to Americans for Ryan by May 20 will be entered into a drawing to win these pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK:

Win a piece of history by helping us to make history!! Enter here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Now, Heather Ryan is not the only candidate to expand our Congressional majorities here in Kentucky. Greg Fischer, the Progressive candidate in the Democratic primary to Ditch Mitch McConnell, also found time to meet the average voter in Western Kentucky by coming to Sedalia.

Here is Greg meeting with a senior citizen of Western Kentucky to hear his concerns:

And again, meeting with potential voters:

Here are grassroots supporters of Greg Fischer walking the parade route:

Of course they have a lot to be excited about!! Fischer recently outraised his competition in the Democratic Primary by 2 to 1 among voters.

Here is Greg Fischer’s new ad called “The Change” detailing what kind of change we need!!:

Please help keep this ad up and keep our momentum going, not to mention supporting the only Progressive option to Mitch McConnell here;

http://www.actblue.com/page/ka…

We simply must fight for our great Democrats wherever they are!! Please help us keep our momentum in Kentucky going by supporting two awesome Kentucky Democrats!!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

Special thanks to kilowat for the awsome pics!!!

From  Sunday’s Oregonian, the state’s largest paper–serving about 1 in 10 Oregonians:

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4′-9″ and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick’s remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

 

{ the closer, below}

Merkley has been everything Oregonians could want in a House speaker. Even his opponents harbor him little ill-will, crediting him with restoring a measure of civility to a divided chamber. But watching this campaign, Democrats may want to take a sharper course.

Novick is an unusual man with an unusual resume — characteristics that some suggest aren’t suited to the U.S. Senate. But we think his passion, his intellect and his personal style give him an intriguing combination of qualities that most senators don’t possess.

We think Novick represents a bold choice for Democrats who seek to dislodge a veteran incumbent. He has the potential to press Smith as he has done Merkley. And, should he pull off what would be a major electoral upset and go to Washington as the new junior senator from Oregon, he has the potential to make Oregonians proud.

Whatever you may think of The O’s board, the value of their endorsement, or their winning percentage, they certainly understand what Steve’s approach is and why it looks so appealing to a lot of people. “Passion, intellect and personal style” is a good way to wrap it up.

They also recognize the strange and magnificient electoral cycle we’re in, and the possibilities for a more sweeping change that brings us better Democrats, not more Democrats. More straight talk, less parsing. A return to greater equity between work and wealth, people and corporations. A decency towards all men and women, and a fierce revival of the keystones of our American goverment–privacy, freedom, peace through defensive strength and strong diplomacy, and economic justice.

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

You bet your ass. One can never tell what the impact of a newspaper endorsement will be, and I think most would agree that their influence has steadily declined over the years.

However, The O is still the Pacific Northwest’s largest circulating paper according to Wikipedia, and stands as the established media’s preeminent presence in the state. Had the paper chosen Merkley I think most would have written it off as the expected move; that they were seemingly so impressed by Novick during his interview (and I did hear from witnesses that he absolutely crushed it) is rather more notable. It’s always more of a story when the nontraditional candidate gets the nod, and this endorsement is no different.

By my count, that gives Novick:

*The most coveted individual (fmr gov Kitzhaber)

*The most coveted organization (Oregon Education Association)

*The most coveted newspaper (Oregonian)

*The coolest endorsement to “the kids” (Michael Stipe of REM, Stone Gossard of Pearl Jam, and a number of others)

With just a week until ballots are delivered, and less than a month until they are counted, Novick appears to be gaining momentum for victory.  

The DCCC’s been keeping busy.

Saturday night:

LA-06: $8000 in field organizing for Don Cazayoux; $8800 in media production.

MS-01: $8000 for a media buy against Greg Davis and for Travis Childers; $3000 in media production.

And today:

LA-06: $4000 in field organizing for Don Cazayoux; $29,000 in direct mail against Woody Jenkins; and $1300 for media production.

MS-01: $17,000 for direct mail against Greg Davis.

Total spent to date by the DCCC in these races: $747,110 in LA-06 and $401,364 in MS-01 (with roughly $250K of that coming after the April 22nd special primary).

Will Bardwell has the audio clip on YouTube of a DCCC radio ad hitting Greg Davis for his support of Bush’s disastrous policies in Iraq and at home.  Obviously this ad is carefully targeted, but it’s reassuring to know that the big boys are delivering some well-placed punches here.

On our end, while the Swing State Project is striving to raise $2300 for Travis Childers by May 5th, we’re only $15 short of our daily goal of $200 (or $1500 total).  Will a hero emerge?  If you haven’t done so already, please consider making a donation today — anything you can manage will help a great deal.

Greg Davis is further showing the racist tent of the white suburbia Republican party. They are going back to their old tatics, scaring people. I have to wonder why they are a party, if they only way they feel they can ever win an election is not on the merits of their own positions or ideas, but on scaring people with misleading attacks on their opponents.

In this ad he slams Childers for not speaking out against Obama and not rejecting his nomination, pointing Obama’s preacher, and his bitter comments, trying to use the bitterness of the National Democratic Primary to hold on to seats. But it’s hard not to miss the underlying racism in it, and from Greg Davis, who accepted an award from White Leadership Council we can expect no less.

This ad makes me think two things. One, is that this could really back on Davis. It could fail to stoke up his conservative base completely, and it could, (and I see it going down this way), get the black vote stirred up this time and out to the polls. Last time Childers failed to win before the runoff because the black vote failed to come out, Davis won a county with a population that was almsot 50% black, and that normally leans Democratic.

It also makes me more frustrated over the negative nature of the Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton’s attacks are getting so vile and false that McCain is starting to repeat them to hurt Obama. She’s splintering our base into pieces, hurting our likely candidate with moderates, and at the same time ensuring that if she is the nominee many Obama supporters will not likely stomach voting for her, she would depress Democratic turnout. So she’s doing herself no favors, she’s not even looking ahead in the long run, and just trying to scrape through the primary no matter what the costs.

Here’s the ad as it was posted on Chris Cillizza’s “The Fix”, which is a really good blog, but I would only suggest checking it every month or so because he doesn’t post profolicly. http://blog.washingtonpost.com…

I, as a white, southern male, the most suspect group, found that the it was sly bit of racism, and a fear ad. An ad trying to tie the local candidate to some scary, offensive outta town guy trying to destroy your way of life, ad. My thought, though, is just how much people will buy into this one, trying to connect Childers to a retired Pastor living a thousand miles to the north of the district, a man he’s never even met, is suspect at best, and an accusation he easily defend. Mississippi has come a long way since 1959, when everyone from Memphis to Jackson called Faulkner “nigger lovin Willie”, for saying that we should gradually integrate, starting with the next generation, and when white men got away with murdering black teenagers for absolutely no reason. But Davis has shown as candidate, that’s there’s still a big place for it, especially in the wealthy white suburbs of Memphis.  

SurveyUSA (4/25-27, likely voters, 4/11-13 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 48 (46)

Jim Schellinger (D): 36 (38)

Undecided: 16 (16)

(MoE: ±4%)

This Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll has a different take (4/23-4/24, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 26

Jim Schellinger (D): 28

Undecided: 46

(MoE: ±4.2%)

General election match-ups:

Jim Schellinger (D): 41

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 45

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43