Swing State Project

Buried in Newsweek’s very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:

We’ve now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there’s a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell’s told me.

Full analysis at Campaign Diaries.

Otter plainly hints here at the possibility of more Republican seats opening up! But which could those be? At this point, few Senate watchers are expecting any, as most people on the retirement watch list have announced their intentions: John Warner and Chuck Hagel retired, and so did Pete Domenici who had been on this watch list since the beginning of the cycle. The reason his retirement caused such a surprise is that Domenici had started to raise money, leading to the assumption that he would run again.

The last senator who was facing persistent retirement rumors earlier in the year was Mississippi’s Cochran, but the conventional wisdom soon became that Cochran would run again (mostly because Cochran’s heir apparent, Rep. Pickering, announced he would leave Congress next year, which he presumably would not have done if Cochran had hinted at the possibility of the Senate seat opening up).

So who are those “few more” Republican who could still pull the plug on a re-election run? The first person that comes to mind, obviously, is Alaska’s Ted Stevens. Stevens is in the middle of an FBI investigation for alleged corruption, and the scandal has been picking up in recent weeks. Who knows what the investigation’s state will be a year from now. Stevens might even be indicted by then, which has got to worry Republicans who might be pressuring Stevens to step down.

This is the only obvious answer. Otter clearly used plural form, so who else remains? Could we have misjudged Cochran’s intentions? An open seat in Mississippi would be a huge opportunity for Democrats who have a strong candidate (Attorney General Moore). Two other faint possibilities are North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole and Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander. Both senators faced some rumors they might call it quits early this year, but speculation quieted down as all signs were pointing towards both of them preparing a new run.

Check out these recently updated Senate Rankings for a take on where those races rank for now, and how much open seats there could dramatically expand the playing field.

I have to admit, immediately after the 2006 election, I was worried that the ’08 Congressional races would be significantly more boring than the cycle we just saw.  I certainly never would have predicted there would be this many Senate races in play, for instance — and the number of House races to watch keeps on growing by the week.  I can’t wait for 2008, because it’s going to be a wild ride.

On another note, in addition to our usual open thread banter this week, why don’t we take a breather and discuss movies.  This being the Swing State Project, the question to ask, of course, is: what is your favorite political movie of all time?

I’m looking forward to reading your responses — and grabbing the popcorn.

UPDATE (David): Rep. Jo Ann Davis (VA-01) has died after a battle with cancer.

From the Albuquerque Journal:

I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.

The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.

“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”

I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

Republicans have finally found a candidate to challenge frosh Democrat Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s 2nd District: former Army captain Chris Minor, who is currently a Blackwater contractor working in Iraq, is taking the plunge in the R+4.3 district.

I won’t comment in detail on Blackwater, whose reputation has taken a beating since several of its contractors engaged in a trigger-happy shooting exchange with Iraqi soldiers and civilians several weeks ago.

I will, however, seriously question a guy who says this:

Minor said he would like to replace Pelosi with Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., “the pride and joy of the conservative movement.”

Pence “lives and breathes Christian values we all respect,” said Minor, a retired U.S. Army captain who continues serving in Iraq as an intelligence analyst for the State Department.

Mike Pence?  The same guy who described the Shorja market in Baghdad as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime”?  I guess in Indiana, a normal market in the summertime is guarded by 100 soldiers in humvees, sharpshooters on the rooftops, attack helicopters circling overhead, and all incoming traffic blocked by military personnel.

Seriously: Mike Pence?  I shudder to imagine a House under his speakership.  It’s no wonder that someone who would like to follow in his footsteps would give a reality-challenged soundbite like this one:

“Our country’s at war right now,” said Minor, explaining why he is running. “Unfortunately, the majority of America has forgotten about why we’re there, who attacked us, how we were attacked, the nature of the attack.”

Minor said it is time for Americans to reawaken to the fact that “we are threatened” and that there is a scourge “that wants nothing more than to destroy us.”

Um, do you really want to have a conversation about the facts, Chris?  I’d love to hear his wild-eyed theory on how Saddam aided and abetted the 9/11 hijackers.  While we’re at it, someone should ask him if he agrees that Iraq resembles Indiana in the summertime.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-02

Hoo boy.  Jim Marshall is not my kind of Democrat, but this isn’t exactly the kind of primary challenge I could get behind:

Macon Mayor C. Jack Ellis declared today he is running for congress in Georgia’s 8th district against incumbent Jim Marshall. Ellis says he is forming an exploratory committee, and will travel the district seeking citizen input.

Ellis has long hinted at his desire for higher office, with talk of a congressional run going back more than a year.

Ellis was elected Macon’s first black mayor in 1999, on his second try, with significant white support. His hope, and that of his supporters then, was to bring the city together. Instead, many observers say he’s divided it with provocative moves – trips to Africa at taxpayer expense, a December conversion to Islam, and a letter lauding Venezuela’s anti-American president.

He has also survived recall efforts, constant bickering with the City Council and repeated federal grand jury investigations into public spending.

More here.

(H/T: Tondee’s Tavern)

Race Tracker: GA-08

John Unger is no longer the only Democratic candidate with eyes on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-WV02) seat in Congress. A small advertisement in a West Virginia newspaper today strongly hints at the candidacy of Thornton Cooper, a Charleston-area attorney and retired public employee.  This should be an interesting race to observe in the coming months.

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

Since our last post got buried, let’s put up a new one rounding up the third quarter financial reports for candidates running for House and Senate seats next year.  As you know, the deadline for campaigns to file these reports is on the 15th, but some figures have been released already.  Let’s take a look at a few.  If you know of any others, post ’em in the comments.