Swing State Project

Another month, another opportunity to round up all the retirements and open seats that may pop up in next year’s House elections. We have a few changes since our last installment in September, with the retirements of Republicans Jerry Weller (IL-11) and Terry Everett (AL-02), and the decision of GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) to run for the Senate. IL-11 and NM-01 stand to be top-tier pick up opportunities for Democrats, and Democrats are hoping that a strong candidate emerges to give Republicans a run for their money in the Alabama seat. (Paging Bobby Bright?) One development that may lift NRCC spirits is the possibility that Jim Ramstad (MN-03) will un-retire, putting a toss-up district into much safer territory for Republicans. For now, we’ll keep him on The List, with the appropriate question mark.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Will retire
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Will resign
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring

That adds up to 10 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. As the retirement trends from the 2005/2006 cycle suggest, there still is plenty of time for more House members to grab a life preserver and bail.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Undecided
CT-04	Shays	R	D+5.4	63	Threatening retirement
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

Deletions from this list include Don Manzullo (IL-16), who filed to run again, and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01), who passed away from an ongoing battle with cancer on the weekend. I’ve added Tancredo and Lamborn in Colorado — both have questionable futures in the House. Another addition is Julia Carson, who returns to the list after being scratched last month. While she did announce her re-election, her poor health is increasingly becoming a major story in national and local media, and her fundraising has been beyond anemic. Unfortunately, I have little choice but to add her back to the watch list.

Babs Cubin is also staying on the list, despite saying recently that she “absolutely intends” to run again “at this point in time”. Uh-huh. “At this point in time” and “intend” in the same sentence is a huge retirement red flag. The same goes for New York Republican Jim McHugh, who put it a bit more strongly, but still left the door open for a vacancy by saying “at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008”. Expectations have a funny habit of changing, and so does the mind of a congressman. He stays on the watch list.

Anyone else we should know about? Let us know in the comments.

Eric Black over at the Minnesota Monitor has the scoop: apparently, the NRCC is working fast and furious to convince retiring Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad to reverse his decision to retire… and, according to inside sources, Ramstad is seriously considering it.  And this decidedly non-Shermanesque statement from one of Ramstad’s aides leaves the door wide open for a change of heart:

“Jim has been overwhelmed by the huge number of Minnesotans urging him to reconsider, but he has no plans to run for re-election.”

“No plans” is legendary Washingtonspeak for “I haven’t made up my mind” or “I won’t tell you yet”.  It’s no surprise that the NRCC would make the effort to reverse Ramstad’s decision.  Without him on the ballot, Ramstad pushes what was once a safe seat into toss-up territory for the GOP, forcing national Republicans to spend precious resources defending the district that Bush carried by a narrow three point margin against Kerry in 2004.

And in an update, Eric Black writes that a second source believes that Republicans have a good shot at changing Ramstad’s mind:

A second and very reliable source, with insider knowledge of National Republican Congressional Committee efforts to get U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad to run for reelection next year, says the committee believes there’s a better than 50-50 chance Ramstad will do it.

Democrats have a strong contender in state Sen. Terri Bonoff, who reportedly raised $90K in about a week after jumping into the race.  Does Ramstad figure that she’ll withdraw her bid if he decides to run again?  If not, why on earth would he want to turn down retirement and face one of the more competitive races of his career?

Stay tuned.

Race Tracker: MN-03

(Bumped – promoted by DavidNYC)

This is the first installment in what – thanks to the mendacity of the modern GOP – I have no doubt will be a recurring series on the Swing State Project. Finding Republican crumb-bums is even easier than getting blitzed at YearlyKos – but deciding which acts of Republican crumb-bummery to highlight… now that is a challenge.

Fortunately, we’re up to that challenge. And a little-noticed vote in Congress last week provides us with an almost vintage example of Republican stone-heartedness in action. On October 2nd, the House passed H.R. 2828, a bill sponsored by Jesse Jackson, Jr., by a 409-12 margin. What does this bill do?

[It] provide[s] compensation to relatives of United States citizens who were killed as a result of the bombings of United States Embassies in East Africa on August 7, 1998.

Who could oppose this bill? Who could be unmoved by the tragedy suffered by victims of such terror? Apparently, twelve Republican recidivists, that’s who. I’ll note that even Republican Whip Roy Blunt co-sponsored this bill. Here are his fellow party members whom he could not persuade:

Paul Broun (GA-10), Eric Cantor (VA-07), Nathan Deal (GA-09), Jeff Flake (AZ-06), Virgil Goode (VA-05), Steve LaTourette (OH-14), Ron Paul (TX-14), Bud Shuster (PA-09), Mike Simpson (ID-02), Tom Tancredo (CO-06), Lee Terry (NE-02), & Bill Young (FL-10)

What message are these cruel, cruel men (and they are all men) sending? That government spending must be controlled at all costs, even when we’re talking about barely $10 million total? That when Osama bin Laden attacks our citizens, we can’t be bothered to help them even ten years later? No matter how you prise it apart, this is a terrible and immoral vote.

And, for almost any incumbent, it would also be a political debacle – except that most of this dirty dozen sit in districts so overwhelmingly red that they are practically near-infra. I doubt that Bud Shuster (R+15) is going to be feeling any heat over this one any time soon.

Which is why I single out the decrepit C.W. “Bill” Young of Florida’s 10th Congressional District for special scorn. All of these Republicans should pay a price for their vote, but Young – whose toss-up district tilts just a little bit Dem at D+1 – is by far the most vulnerable. Indeed, Young, age 76, has been the subject of retirement rumors for the better part of a year.

What makes Young’s vote even worse is that two of the victims whose families would be affected by the bill hailed from Florida. Both were members of the military. I hope Young draws a strong opponent this cycle, and I hope whoever that may be doesn’t hesitate to highlight this outrageous vote. This election should serve as a lesson to Bill Young, and to the eleven other shameful Republicans who share his mindset.

(Hat-tip: DemocraticLuntz)

It’s time for another round-up of all the third quarter fundraising reports for House and Senate campaigns.  (Our first two reports can be found here and here.)  The deadline for candidates to file their reports is the 15th, so we’ll still have to wait a few days until we get flooded with numbers.  If you’ve seen any other 3Q figures floating through the tubes, post ’em in the comments.

FL-22:

Allen West (R): $12.5K raised; $13K CoH

MN-01:

Randy Demmer (R): $17K raised; $56K CoH

NJ-03:

Jim Saxton (R-inc): $97K raised; $1.39M CoH

KS-03:

Nick Jordan (R): $108K raised; $99K CoH

PA-03:

Kyle Foust (D): $42K raised; $27K CoH

CA-42:

Gary Miller (R-inc): $39K raised; $801K CoH

MI-07:

Mark Schauer (D): $220K raised; $195K CoH (in five weeks)

CA-04:

Eric Egland (R): $77K raised; $70K CoH (in two months)

IL-14:

Chris Lauzen (R): $210K raised + $325K personal donation (source: House Race Hotline)

PA-10:

Chris Hackett (R): $245K raised CoH (source: HRH)

MI-09:

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): $400K raised; $860K CoH

Update:

IN-04:

Nels Ackerson (D): $134K raised

SurveyUSA has released its first poll showing who New Mexicans would like to see replace Republican Pete Domenici in the US Senate:

Tom Udall (D): 55
Steve Pearce (R): 37

Tom Udall (D): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 38

Bill Richardson (D): 60
Steve Pearce (R): 36

Bill Richardson (D): 62
Heather Wilson (R): 35

Marty Chavez (D): 35
Steve Pearce (R): 56

Marty Chavez (D): 44
Heather Wilson (R): 48

Patricia Madrid (D): 38
Steve Pearce (R): 54

Patricia Madrid (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 46

Don Wiviott (D): 23
Steve Pearce (R): 58

Don Wiviott (D): 34
Heather Wilson (R): 51

MoE: ± 4.4%, n=514

While this round of polling is likely a reflection of name-recognition, it does provide us with a valuable baseline.

Of course, it's disappointing to see that a candidate with numbers like Tom Udall has already turned down a run for the seat. And, as of now, Bill Richardson is still running for President.

It looks like Republicans are going to field another repeat candidate next fall: former Rep. Mike Sodrel will announce whether he’ll run against Democratic incumbent Baron Hill tomorrow, and a candidate doesn’t usually go through all this fuss unless they’re actually running:

  Mike Sodrel Will Announce His Decision

  When: 3:30pm on Tuesday, October 9th

  Where: Calumet Club
  1614 E. Spring Street
  New Albany, IN

  Please join us,

  David Buskill
  Chairman, Clark County Republican Party

If Sodrel is in, this would bring “rematch” to a whole new level — this would be the fourth time that he and Hill faced off against each other, with only the 2004 match-up being successful for Sodrel.

Race Tracker: IN-09

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

If you ever had the misfortune of being on being on the receiving end of an National Republican Congressional Committee media alert last cycle, you’ll know that they took special delight in mocking DCCC Chair Rahm Emmanuel for his supposed recruiting failures in key House races.  These press releases always were marked by the title “DCCC Delusions”.  Since the NRCC has had some notable difficulties in recruiting top-shelf challengers in a number of districts (OH-15, anyone?) this year, why don’t we tally up all the candidates who took a pass on efforts by the national and state Republican parties to recruit them into House races.

I’ve got a few so far, but I have a feeling that I’m just scratching the surface.  Post any additional recruitment failures in the comments section below, if you know of any.

AZ-01: Ex-state Sen. President Ken Bennett
CT-02: Former US Rep. Rob Simmons
FL-16: Former state Rep. and ’06 candidate Joe Negron
FL-22: Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Sen. Jeff Atwater
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff
FL-22: Palm Beach Co Commis. Mary McCarty
IL-11: State Sen. Christine Radogno
ME-01: State Sen. Jon Courtney
MN-01: Former US Rep. Gil Gutknecht
NC-11: State Sen. Tom Apodaca
NH-02: Former US Rep. Charlie Bass
NY-19: Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer
OH-15: Former state AG Jim Petro
OH-15: Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka
OH-15: Former WBNS-TV anchor Dave Kaylor
OH-15: State Rep. Jon Husted
OH-15: State Rep. Jim Hughes
OH-15: State Sen. Steve Stivers
OH-15: Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes
PA-04: Former Pittsburgh Steeler and ’06 Gov Nominee Lynn Swann
PA-10: Former Deputy state AG Joe Peters
PA-10: U.S. Attorney Thomas A. Marino
TX-22: Sugarland Mayor David Wallace
TX-22: Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt
TX-22: State Rep. John Zerwas

Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning where he is expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Pete Domenici. Chavez would be the first big name Democrat to enter the race.

Good news?  Bad news?  This will be debated heavily between bloggers and Democrats, as noted in the article:

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Article Here: http://www.coldheart…

What do you guys think?  In comparison to Wiviott, the only other Democratic challenger, I feel Chavez is a step forward on beating Heather Wilson and a step back on policy, although that cannot really be decided until he sets his platform. 

I should note that personally, I feel we should sport strong challengers to try to attain the big 60, then work on electing better US Senators.  Until we have 60, I feel that Republicans have too much power in the Senate. 

As most people know, going from state/local politics to national politics is a big leap on different issues, so time will tell where Chavez stands, although he has been mayor of Albequerque for awhile, and has amassed some sense of principles on general issues. 

Also, it is noteworthy that Albequerque is the heart of Heather Wilson’s Congressional District, which is seen as the base for her Senate race. 

When Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House, decided to enter the Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith at the end of July, the only announced candidate, Steve Novick, didn’t raise a fuss.  In fact, his cordial response set what appeared to be a friendly tone for the primary campaign in the months ahead:

I commend Jeff’s decision to follow me in taking on Gordon Smith. […]

I look forward to an inspired primary where each of us makes our case for why we must replace Gordon Smith and presents our respective visions for Oregon and America. And I propose a series of joint appearances across the state with Jeff and any other candidates that enter the primary to let voters make up their minds.

[…] Over the next ten months, I plan to travel the state – listening to voters’ concerns and sharing my vision. It would be my great pleasure to have Jeff join me in that journey.

However, despite Novick’s proposal for a primary campaign with the heat directed entirely at Gordon Smith, it sure appears that Novick is spending a great deal of time launching unprovoked barbs at Merkley.  One of the first signs came in late August, when Novick found himself reading similar talking points as the state GOP to portray Merkley as a candidate who has flip-flopped on the Iraq War–something that isn’t true–because of a non-binding resolution passed by the Oregon House in 2003 that Merkley voted for in order to express solidarity with the troops.  Remarks that Merkley made on the House floor clearly corroborate Merkley’s claim that he was opposed to the war since the beginning.

Next up, Novick slammed Merkley as the “insider’s candidate” in a message sent to his online supporters after a recent fundraising push:

And yes, if you’re wondering, we outdid our opponent in the Democratic primary in online fundraising this week. The insiders’ candidate sent out the same kind of last-week appeal that we did – to an email list that seems to include everybody in the state – and you smoked ’em. Oh, we’re sure he got lots of big checks this quarter; that’s what insider candidates do. But in online last-week enthusiasm, you rocked him hard.

Huh.  And here I thought his campaign was about “rocking Smith hard”.  My mistake.

But wait, it gets better!  Both candidates recently announced their third quarter fundraising totals.  Merkley outraised Novick by a $294K to $125K margin.  While not extremely strong numbers for Merkley, he did begin his campaign at the start of August, and therefore only had two months to raise funds for the quarter compared to Novick’s three.  Nevertheless, Novick’s campaign wasted no time in releasing the following statement to the press:

From Merkley’s campaign spokesman Russ Kelley: “People are really responding to Jeff’s message of opportunity and his solid record of accomplishment.”

Or are they? says Novick’s campaign manager Jake Weigler. Democratic Senate candidates in other states who, like Merkley, were recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have posted much higher fund-raising totals.

“Merkley’s ‘surge’ did not succeed,” Weigler said. “These numbers show it’s going to be a highly competitive primary.”

Excuse me?  Merkley’s “surge”?  Certainly an interesting choice of words.

So what kind of primary campaign is Steve Novick running?

You tell me.

Ah, how the siren song of sixty senate seats serenades us. With “just” nine more seats in the upper chamber, Democrats can, in theory, exercise total control over the legislative agenda. Republicans will no longer be able to obstruct the progress the American people demand. And with a Democrat 1600 Pennsylvania and Nancy Pelosi guiding the People’s House with a firm hand, we will see the dawn of a new golden age for the Blue.

Hey, anything is possible, and nine seats certainly looks a lot more realistic, if still distant, today than it did a year ago. But here’s a new question: Have we just walked right smack into the next Republican talking-point scare tactic? Bob Novak, the Prince of Darkness, might have just tipped his hand in bringing up this tidbit:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those “red” states – perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

At first I thought this was just a way for the Douchebag of Liberty to ding Schumer by setting up absurdly unrealistic expectations, and to perpetuate a largely baseless smear against Clinton. But one of my political mentors suggested that the fear of a filibuster-proof Senate might serve as a baseline defense, the ultimate desperation firewall, a means for the GOP to nationalize the elections in their favor. I think this view may be right.

Indeed, Chuck Schumer is no dummy – he didn’t raise the issue of a sixty-seat Dem majority himself. While liberal bloggers and even Beltway prognosticators have openly discussed this possibility for some time, Schumer only spoke on the topic because the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza broached it in an interview. But Novakula – who often serves as a mouthpiece for the conservative hive mind – looks like he’s trying to make an issue out of this.

On the other hand, Novak is as delusional as often as he is right. It may well be that hyping procedural arcana to stoke Fear of a Blue Planet is a bridge too far even for the GOP. After all, Republican attempts to thwart Democrats last year by invoking the specter of a Pelosi-led House did not seem all that successful. And it’s one thing to pin your hopes on people understanding what majorities mean – start jawing about this sixty-seat silliness and all but the savviest may well tune you out.

In any event, stay alert for this potential talking point. If you see any examples of Republicans flogging this, let us know.