Swing State Project

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has stepped up his exploratory effort in recent days as he nears a self-imposed deadline of July 1 to decide whether to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Last week, Miller and his wife, Esther Hall, met for more than an hour with New York Sen. Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

All of this is from the News and Observer

This was added to in this morning’s paper…

This morning’s version of the same story adds a few good quotes from people who want Brad to run and people who don’t.

State Representative Deborah Ross (who could end up becoming our first ever Female Speaker in the next few years) said that she thinks Brad will run if he can be assured of the money.

His treasurer from his past campaigns thinks that he shouldn’t run, because he is building a great career in the House.  I disagree with her conclusion, but it is very true that Brad is doing a great job in the House.

In a conversation about money, Brad added:

“I am convinced if I make the decision to run it will be one of the top targeted races nationally by the Senatorial Committee and by Democratic constituency groups,” he said. “The support is there for a serious run.”

For those worried about such things, the paper lists four potential challengers to save Brad’s House Seat should he run.  I know 2 of them, one of whom would be an amazing candidate for this.  His website is here.

All of this is very important, because we must get rid of Liddy Dole.  You can find out more about her record by checking out the Draft Brad site.  Or you can just click on my name and sort through all my diaries on her.

Brad is very close to making a decision, and we have a fantastic opportunity to convince him to run.  I hope you will join me and send him a very small donation (even as little as 2 dollars) to show that you still want him to run, and would be there volunteering, phone calling, and blog swarming on his behalf.

From the Casper Star-Tribune:

Tom Sansonetti
John Barrasso
Cynthia Lummis

Let’s dig up some dirt, people.

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Check out the results from the Georgia SoS, or tune in to the gripping liveblog delivered by Tondee’s Tavern.  Right now, Marlow is four points down from Whitehead (R), the Republican frontrunner, and three points ahead of Republican Paul Broun.  Marlow will need to hold this position in order to advance to the run-off.  Fingers crossed!

8:15PM: Marlowe’s slipped to 3rd place with 27% of precincts reporting:

Whitehead (R): 31.7%
Broun (R): 25.2%
Marlow (D): 23.2%
Freeman (D): 7.2%

8:18PM: Neck and neck with 31% in.

Whitehead (R): 28.5%
Marlow (D): 28.4%
Broun (R): 24.5%
Freeman (D): 6.7%

8:34PM:  Whoops.  Here’s the real SoS link.  Don’t drink and blog, folks.

Anyway, Columbia, Whitehead’s home county, has yet to report–and it’s gonna be a bloodbath there.

8:42PM: For a taste of the carnage to come from Columbia county, check this out.  Whitehead is beating Marlow by an 9-to-1 8-to-1 margin here, and Broun is limping ahead of him.

8:50PM: The SoS is starting to report returns from Columbia.  67% in.

Whitehead (R): 39.2%
Marlow (D): 23.3%
Broun (R): 20.8%
Freeman (D): 5.6%

Marlow is lagging behind Broun and Freeman in Columbia–but let’s hope it won’t be enough to put Broun over the edge.

9:12PM: 79% in.  With lots more red turf left to report in Columbia and Habersham, Marlow will need to perform exceptionally in the remaining Athens precinct and hope that Broun performs poorly in Wilkes.  This one is looking ugly.

Whitehead (R): 40.7%
Marlow (D): 22.3%
Broun (R): 21.4%
Freeman (D): 4.9%

10:19PM: 94% in.

Whitehead (R): 43.7%
Marlow (D): 20.5%
Broun (R): 20.4%
Freeman (D): 4.8%

32 votes difference between second and third.  With precincts left in Banks, Columbia, Greene, Habersham, Madison, Morgan, and Putnam (all counties that favored Broun over Marlow), I don’t see how Marlow advances to the run-off.

11:29PM: With 96% in, Marlow is down by nearly 200 votes.

The race between Republican Congressman Jon Porter and Democrat Tessa Hafen in NV-03 (the suburbs of Las Vegas) has been one of the closest in the country with 48.46% for Porter and 46.57% for Hafen and Porter winning by less than 4,000 votes. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Democrats, both in DC and in Nevada, are looking for another serious challenger to Porter after Hafen, a former aide to Sen. Reid, declined to run again. Last week, another potential contender, 2006 gubernatorial nominee and State Sen. Min. Leader Dina Titus, took herself out of the running leaving the field with one announced candidate and two others seriously considering.

Thus far only Andrew Martin has announced his intention to run. He’s an accountant making his first run for elected office and would be Nevada’s first openly gay member of Congress. He’s fairly unknown, though, and I’m not sure if he’d be able to raise the funds necessary for a successful run. Another potential candidate is Larry Lehrner, a nephrologist, a former Republican who does not even live in the district but is nontheless taken very seriously because he’s married to Shelley Berkley, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley that is. A married couple representing two districts of one state in Congress, I don’t think we’ve had that before and I’m not sure we’d want that.

So, maybe it’s time for a waitress in Congress.

There has been speculation that Maggie Carlton, a state senator since 1999 is interested in running and this past weekend she confirmed this:

“My husband and I have been talking about it for a while,” she said. “We might try it. I don’t think it’s too far fetched.”

Carlton, a waitress at the Treasure Island resort, said she wants to talk it over with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and her supporters at home before she makes a decision.

“He’s my congressman, and I don’t like some of the things he’s done,” she said of Porter. “Maybe we need a waitress in Congress, not an insurance guy.”

Yup, you read that right, a waitress. Nevada’s legislature is only in session for four months every other year, meaning legislators have to keep their job after being elected and work to make a living. Wonder how Maggie Carlton does it? So did NPR a year ago. You can listen to their profile of Maggie Carlton here.

Maggie Carlton represents the working people of Las Vegas and Nevada in the State Senate. One co-worker says:

We got somebody speaking for us on a higher level. […] She’ll bring up the questions that other senators probably wouldn’t bring up because they don’t know about nine-to-five working people. […] If Maggie wouldn’t be doing it who would do it?

So, you could argue she’s too valuable in the State Senate and should stay put. However, term limits were introduced in Nevada which means she cannot stand for re-election in 2010. Having her speak for the nine-to-five people in Congress might not be such a bad idea.

How could she win? We know the district is competitive, Porter is vulnerable. She’d have one distinctive advantage: the Culinary Union Local 226 – the most powerful union in Nevada, so powerful that the Culinary’s endorsement might swing the presidential contest in the Nevada Caucus next year. Maggie Carlton is not only a member of the Culinary Union and a Culinary Local No. 226 Shop Steward, she says she was actually encouraged to run for the State Senate by the Culinary:

They wanted someone who clocked in for a living and who understood: running to PTA meetings, trying to do the girl scout thing, getting kids to school on time, all those types of things.

Maggie Carlton has been doing her day-job for 30 years now, maybe it’s time she put down that 40 pound tray not just for 120 days every other year but permanently and take her experience to Washington.

Cross-posted from Turn Tahoe Blue.

From the Boston Globe:

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen will decide in September whether to enter one of the country’s most closely watched US Senate races, her husband says.

Shaheen’s husband, Billy, told the Globe she will make up her mind in September because, “it is only fair to those currently running that she have her mind made up either way”.

This is the first time either Shaheen had given such a firm deadline for a decision.

I would have preferred a slightly earlier decision by Shaheen, because her noncommittal status will undoubtedly depress fundraising for the current field–funds that will be crucially necessary in order to beat Sununu next year should Shaheen take her name out of consideration.  But the more buzz I hear from the Beltway and elsewhere, the more I’m convinced that Shaheen is really interested in making a race of this.  And with polls like these showing her with a 10-point lead on Sununu, the opportunity to whallop another Bushleaguer has got to appear tempting for the Governor.

Mark your calenders.

(Hat-tip: Dean Barker at Blue Hampshire)

From the AP:

A state appellate court ruled Monday that Christine Jennings has no right to examine the programming source code that runs the electronic voting machines she says malfunctioned in her southwest Florida congressional race.

The three-judge panel said Monday Jennings did not meet the “extraordinary burden” of proving a lower court was wrong to deny her request last December.

Jennings already had shifted focus to a congressional task force assigned to sort out her election dispute with Republican Vern Buchanan, the state-certified winner of the race by only 369 votes. A spokesman said she has no immediate plans to appeal Monday’s ruling.

Don’t worry, sports fans – this is hardly the end of the game:

“I think the only important activity right now is what is going on in Congress, since they have the ultimate authority in this matter,” Jennings’ spokesman David Kochman said. “They are also moving quicker than the court ever has. In terms of access to the source code and machines, the task force made it clear last week that won’t be a hurdle. They have subpoena power.”

Exactly right. What has taken the glacial Florida courts half a year to decide not to do, Congress can (and likely will) do in an afternoon. While it would have been nice if the courts, rather than Congress, wound up granting access to the ES&S source code, Republicans would have cried “politics” no matter what. And like the spokesman says, now that the legal proceedings are essentially moot, things can move a lot faster.

This has the potential to be really fascinating – our first-ever true window into the “black box” of voting machine source code. Congress’s experts will be able to look at the actual guts of what animates ES&S’s electronic ballot boxes. Even if the eventual findings don’t prove favorable to Jennings’ specific case, we’ll have a chance to know once and for all whether the voting machine companies’ claims that their products are secure and accurate are for real.

The Hill is reporting that Norm Coleman may be facing a primary challenge from one of his former advisors.

http://thehill.com/l…

Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state and has no real love for the war, but if this is a strong enough primary challenge, Coleman will have to move to the right on the war in order to win a Republican primary, this is defintely a good sign.

What have you got?