Swing State Project

The tenth district of Texas was once a liberal bastion held by such notable Democrats like Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Doggett until Tom DeLay’s redistricting scheme diluted the seat’s liberal bent by stretching eastward and incorporating some very conservative areas of the Greater Houston region.  Under the current lines, it has a PVI of R+13.  However, the trend is positive: while Gore scored only 34% in this district in the 2000 Presidential election, the Democratic performance improved to 38% four years later.

But the real story here is Republican Mike McCaul’s performance in the 2006 election.  After going unopposed by Texas Democrats in 2004, McCaul’s share of the vote sagged dramatically last year:

Mike McCaul (R): 55%
Ted Ankrum (D): 41%
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian): 4%

McCaul’s 55% was easily the weakest performance from a Republican incumbent in Texas other than Henry Bonilla.  On top of that, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Presidential candidate in 2004, outspent fightin’ Democrat Ted Ankrum by a hefty $400k margin and only walked away with 4% of the vote to show for it.  Numbers like that would indicate that the Democratic base is pretty solid in this district.

Now, what could be the source of McCaul’s weakness?  Is it possible that lingering resentment over the mid-decade redistricting carried over into 2006?  Looking at a few of the other beneficiaries of the scheme who were freshmen during the 109th Congress, Representatives Poe, Gohmert, and Conaway all improved on their 2004 margins of victory, although Poe & Gohmert faced sitting incumbents in 2004 and Conaway was unopposed last year.  Rep. Marchant (TX-24) did slip a little over the two years, but only by 4 points.  No matter how you slice it, 55% is a terrible performance for an incumbent Republican in a district that delivered 62% of its vote to Bush in 2004, even in a rocky year like 2006.  There is a weakness here, revealed by Ankrum’s challenge, that perhaps an aggressive challenge can exploit.

One such challenger has already stepped up: Democrat Dan Grant, an international development worker who has worked on USAID projects in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq.  (He even posted a diary here last week.)  I don’t know enough about Grant and his organization to tell whether he’d be a serious nuisance to McCaul, but he has managed to raise nearly $25k on Actblue in just a week or two, a year and a half from election day–and that’s more than one quarter of what Ankrum spent during his entire campaign.  He could be a guy–and this could be a district–worth keeping an eye on.

Race Tracker: TX-10

PS: There is another Democratic candidate in this race: Larry Joe Doherty.  He looks a little… flavorful.

(The circus continues in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:

Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.

He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.

Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..

Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.

Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.

“That being the case, I will be running,” Raimondo said.

This is a significant development – a sign that Hagel’s being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel’s in the race, it’s becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it’s reflective of Nebraska Republicans’ attitude right now.

It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we’ll get Hagel’s final decision in the next two or three months – and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.

Last Friday evening, West Virginia State Sen. John Unger held an Eastern Panhandle campaign kick-off event in Martinsburg, W.Va. (lots of pictures here). After reading so much about Unger–both good and bad–from fellow Democratic activists and Republican concern trolls trying to Draft Anne Barth, I really didn’t know what to expect. Maybe all that ink-spilling had lowered my expectations… whatever the reason, I was pleasently surprised. It was an impressive start for his campaign for WV-02.

Follow below the break for my full report.

A late start

We all waited a while for Rep. Alan Mollohan (WV-01) to arrive from D.C. [As any of us who regularly drive from DC can tell you, arriving at Martinsburg at 5:30pm on a Friday afternoon is a tricky driving task!] I did heard Mollohan made it later in the evening for the Berkeley County Democratic Woman’s Dinner (at the same venue).

The event opened and closed with a prayer delivered by a local clergy (I didn’t catch the name). Perhaps because I grew up in the bible belt, this outward display of religion doesn’t bother me. More importantly, these prayers offered were prayers of inclusion, not exclusion. [Even though the religious beliefs of this progressive appear to differ (quite a lot!) from those of Unger, many of our core values overlap. In a 2005 profile he named his heroes as Mother Teresa, Gandhi, Jesus and Thomas Jefferson.]

On to Unger’s speech

He’s starting with a stump speech that is already better than many politicans ended their 2006 campaigns with. I rate the content as very good (I’ve minor quibbles I share below) and the delivery is… well… let’s just say it’s still early in the campaign season. Unger was very comfortable in front of this crowd, he can speak from his heart, and he showed potential for a great speech. Once Unger has this material memorized–after he throws away his notes and just talks to the audience, he’s going to have a top notch stump speech.

About the content

The theme for his speech is “we can do better”. He spoke frequently of working for “common good.” The key issues he stressed are: universal access to affordable health care, improved educational opportunities, milestones / removing troops from Iraq, veteran’s support, infrastructure upgrades and United States energy independence.

Here are some lines that stood out in particular (not exact quotes):

– America has not kept its promise to its people… let’s return government to the people.

– We can import food from communist China, import cooking oil from a dictatorship in Venezula so why can’t we import affordable prescription drugs from a democracy in Canada.

– We’re building schools in Iraq, we need to build them here.

– Removing troops from Iraq equals a healthy Iraq.

– If not now, then when? If not us, then who?

I really like the one about “removing troops from Iraq = a healthy Iraq.” The line about importing drugs is great populist rheteroic, too. Considering the only phrase in the whole speech I found a little off was calling Venezula a dictatorship, I’d say he did quite well. Even with that, it’s still a great line.

Some minor quibbles

As many others have said around the progressive blogosphere, the Democratic Party is too slow in realizing that the Iraq War is the issue of the 2008 election (just as it was for the 2006 election). I liked what I heard Unger say about Iraq, it was just buried a too far into the speech. He can say the same things more prominently. [If he truly listens as he tours the district, he’ll figure this out on his own. After all, “getting out of Iraq” was probably the loudest applause line on this night.]

The electorate wants out of Iraq. This is a huge vulnerability for incumbent Republicans. Despite anything he might hear otherwise from the DCCC back in Washington, this is one place not to be timid.

My second quibble has to do with energy independence. I have some concerns about that framing of energy policy. I’ll reserve judgement until I know more details about Unger’s positions. [Unger was sole sponsor of legislation that recently created a Department of Energy in West Virginia, so he’s certainly well-informed on the topic.]

In all, there’s a lot to like

Unger comes across as authentic in his compassion for those who are less fortunate in society. Unger comes across as authentic as someone who believes that government can help promote the common good. His signature issues of universal health care, education, getting out of Iraq, veterans, our nation’s infrastructure and energy indepenence are winning issues in WV-02 that progressives can also rally around. He is running on issues of inclusion, not division.

Yes indeed, John Unger is showing us “we can do better”.

No doubt there will be at least one primary challenger in this race. The allure of press coverage for a Congressional seat is too much to keep challengers at bay. Still, anyone with serious political aspirations will think twice before taking on an impressive candidate with strong support from fellow West Virginia Democrats (and the DCCC). Unger is going to be a formidable candidate.

Thankfully for all of us in WV-02, State Sen. John Unger is already showing that a Democrat does indeed have a prayer to win this seat in 2008.

Cross-posted at West Virginia Blue

Since we’re on a roll with news from state legislative races (well, two posts is unusual, so I’ll call that “a roll”), Maine Democrats are celebrating a special election win last night, where Democrat Deane Jones beat Republican Penelope Morrell by 1,469 to 1,180.  With this pick-up of a previously Republican seat (held by Rep. Abigail Holman until her untimely death in a skiing accident this past April), Maine Democrats now enjoy an 89-60-2 margin of control in the state House.

Coming off a very successful 2006 election, where Republicans lost 15 seats in the House, Maine Democrats are keeping up the momentum–momentum that can hopefully help Tom Allen launch an aggressive challenge to war hawk Joe Lieberman’s favorite Republican conspirator in the Senate: Susan Collins.

I just got an email from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee passing on the good news that Democrats in Maine flipped a State House seat from red to blue in last night’s special election.

I’m happy to announce that Democrat Deane Jones won a special election for a vacancy in the Maine House yesterday. This was a pickup for Democrats. It brings our majority to 89-59 with 2 independents.

This is a pretty obscure primary result from a downticket race in Virginia for the Swing State Project to highlight, but you might remember State Sen. Benjamin Lambert as one of the few Democrats who crossed over and endorsed then-Senator George Allen last fall in his bitter race against Jim Webb.  Lambert, a senior African-American state lawmaker in the Democratic caucus, gave a crucial boost to Allen’s campaign in the midst of the raging “macaca” controversy.  Luckily, it wasn’t enough to keep Allen buoyant, and it also inspired a primary challenge from Webb ally Donald McEachin, a member of the House of Delegates–a campaign that proved successful tonight with a 58-42 loss for Lambert.  Somewhat amusingly, Lambert lamented the lack of help he received from Allen in the primary campaign after his loss became apparent:

Lambert said his support of Allen probably cost him his job. “I thought the Allen folks would have helped me more, but it didn’t work out that way.”

Let that serve as a lesson to Democrats who may want to play footsie with Congressional Republicans at this crucial time.

Disappointing news:

Democrat Ron Sparks announced Tuesday that he will not challenge Sen. Jeff Sessions in 2008.

Sparks, the state agriculture commissioner, said he decided not to run after talking with state Sen. Vivian Figures of Mobile, who is running.

“I believe that the best chance Democrats have to win that seat is if we are unified and avoid a primary battle,” Sparks said in a released statement.

Sparks is the second Democrat to publicly consider a campaign before opting out; U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, announced in January he would not run for the Senate next year.

Democratic primaries in Alabama have had a history of being nasty, divisive affairs in the past two decades, and it’s understandable that Sparks wouldn’t want to face Sessions with a mortal wound delivered by an opponent–or by meddlesome Republicans.  Still, this is a profoundly disappointing development.  Sparks could have made this a real race.

Race Tracker: AL-Sen

Those were the bold, courageous words of Jim Whitehead, the Republican frontrunner in the June 19th special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Charlie Norwood of Georgia.  It should be no surprise, then, that Whitehead is doing the best that he can to avoid the tough questions from his potential constituents by ducking as many debates as he can.  After all, he might have to get grilled by people like retired Col. Robert Thomas:

Jim Whitehead’s comment that “Iraq has not been a big thing in our district” because it’s not in our back yard is disturbing.

As a retired soldier and parent of a soldier serving in Iraq, I am very concerned about the war. The Iraq war and 3,422 American dead (as of May 21) may not be a front-burner issue for Mr. Whitehead – he apparently thinks voter fraud is more important – but most of us are very concerned. He says he supports our troops. However, his words suggest he is more concerned about protecting tax dollars. He avoids discussing Iraq and portrays the war as only “another issue.”

Does he realize that virtually all of the Army’s equipment is worn out and needs replaced to maintain readiness in a dangerous world? Does he know what this will cost? With each additional tour in Iraq, soldiers face increased risks of post-traumatic stress and other emotional disorders, and many are on their fourth tour. Post-concussion syndrome from constant exposure to improvised explosive devices often results in permanent brain damage. We are saving more wounded soldiers than ever before, but many are coming home with severe disabilities. We must care for these self-sacrificing veterans for years to come.

Does Mr. Whitehead realize how much this will cost? Where will this money come from? Our soldiers are enduring unspeakable hardships for our freedom, and need our real support! We must put our money where our mouths are. Mr. Whitehead waves the flag and supports our troops as long as it doesn’t cause a tax increase. He talks about ending special projects, but he wants to fight to return the money to us instead of rebuilding our army and caring for soldiers.

Supporting our military and maintaining a safe and free America requires sacrifice and money. Jim Whitehead doesn’t get it, and we need someone who does.

Robert W. Thomas, Evans

(Editor’s note: The writer is a retired U.S. Army colonel.)

James Marlow, the Democratic front-runner, on the other hand, supports the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group and would have voted to override the President’s veto of the recent Iraq supplemental bill containing withdrawal language.  The dichotomy couldn’t be clearer than that.  While Whitehead has outraised Marlow by a nearly 5-to-1 ratio, it could be very interesting to see to what extent the better-funded Republican vote fractures next week, and if Marlow can slip himself into a run-off.

Race Tracker: GA-10

Yep we have hit the magical 300. 17 months before election day too. We have so many more candidates in the field this cycle than at the same time in 2005.

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

300 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 67 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 67
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 6
Districts with rumoured candidates – 29
Districts without any candidates – 100

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-14,
VA-05,
VA-06,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
NY-26,
OH-14,
PA-18,
VA-10,
WV-02,

3) The following 33 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-10,
FL-12,
IN-03,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,

4) And last but not least the following 106 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NY-23,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia. Thats 16 states with a full slate (17 when I can conform Unger in WV-02) and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in VA-06 and TX-11, 2 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Check out this release posted on the DCCC’s site on the Congressional race heating up in Pennsylvania’s 3rd.  U.S. Rep. Phil English, a relatively uncharismatic candidate, has managed to coast to election victories over the last twelve years as a result of dysfunction within Erie’s Democratic party (spoken as a former resident of Erie, not as an expert!). 

But when Kyle Foust, Chair of the Erie County Council, announced his interest in running against Rep. English, the waves started to work through English’s infrastructure.  Foust has a big family name in Erie (his father was a legend in Erie local politics), and the district has more registered dems than republicans. 

From the DCCC site:

Judging by the reaction of English and his staff, it’s clear they consider Foust a credible challenger. English expressed “surprise” that Foust would acknowledge interest in a congressional run, considering it’s a year away. And Brad Moore, the Erie County Republican Party chairman and a former English aide, wrote in a news release, “The ink isn’t even dry yet for Councilman Foust’s position on the November ballot to represent his County Council district for another term, and he is already declaring he intends to run for Congress.”

That’s not subtle. The political chase is on.