Swing State Project

Like David, I don’t have a moose in this race, but hey, it’s an election–and if one of either Rep. Chaka Fattah or Rep. Bob Brady can pull off an upset win, we’d be dealing with yet another House vacancy and special election this year.  However, the odds of such a scenario happening appear to be long.  For more coverage, results, and analysis check out Young Philly Politics and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

UPDATE (David): It’s Nutter. I wonder if retaking the majority made the mayoralty less appealing to Fattah and Brady.

From the Prince of Darkness:

Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a rising Republican star in Congress, is on the short list to be University of Missouri president. That raises the possibility of Democrats picking up his House seat representing Missouri’s Little Dixie.

Hulshof won the once solidly Democratic seat in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote and was given a coveted membership on the House Ways and Means Committee. Hulshof has won recent elections with over 61 percent (even in 2006, when Democrats were winning elsewhere in Missouri and a state Senate seat in the district was lost by the Republicans).

Missouri Republican strategists worry that it would be difficult to retain the district in a special election if Hulshof takes the university post.

While Bush won this district by 55/42 and 59/41 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, it was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years from 1977-1997.  A special election with a strong local Democratic candidate could prove to be a rockin’ good time.  In fact, special elections in both this district and Arizona’s 1st district could give Tom Cole and the NRCC brain trust migraines this summer, should they happen.

Now, I have a question for the SSP brain trust: how well did Claire McCaskill perform in this district last November?

UPDATE (David): Man, I knew someone would come up with the answer! Major props to MORawn for crunching the numbers: in 2006, McCaskill got 46% in MO-09, to Talent’s 54%. That jives with pcd’s slightly rougher calculation. So, a tough row to hoe even for a top-shelf candidate, given that last year’s senate race was a high-water mark for us. But an open seat is always a game-changer.

Race Tracker: MO-09

Anna Jarvis organized the first Mother’s Day service in May 1907 in Grafton, W.Va., to honor her mother — a tireless advocate for peace.

Anna Jarvis’ mother had spent most of her life working to bring reconciliation between mothers whose sons had fought for the Union and Confederacy in the Civil War.

Anna Jarvis’ mother had spent most of her life working to bring reconciliation between mothers whose sons had fought for the Union and Confederacy in the Civil War.

She was inspired by Julia Ward Howe, the famous peace activist who wrote in 1870:

Julia Ward Howe wrote the Mother’s Day Proclamation in 1870, as a call for peace and disarmament. An excerpt follows:

“From the voice of a devastated Earth a voice goes up with
Our own. It says: “Disarm! Disarm!
The sword of murder is not the balance of justice.”
Blood does not wipe out dishonor,
Nor violence indicate possession.
As men have often forsaken the plough and the anvil at the summons of war,
Let women now leave all that may be left of home
For a great and earnest day of counsel.
Let them meet first, as women, to bewail and commemorate the dead.
Let them solemnly take counsel with each other as to the means
Whereby the great human family can live in peace…”

The audacity of Rubberstamp Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito — who continues to vote for endless war in Iraq — to claim sponsorship of a coin to commerate Mother’s Day is outrageous.

How many mothers in the United States and Iraq are in mourning on this day because their children are dead due to the actions and support of war by people like Capito?

She completely ignores the roots of the Mother’s Day movement — roots well known by Anna Jarvis and a major factor in the original Mother’s Day service.

Capito has blood on her hands.

Today’s story in the Martinsburg Journal is nothing more than a press-release for Capito and the Republican Party.

These war whores try to hide their guilt but they cannot escape the fact that they represent everything that Howe and the Jarvises vehemently opposed.

Howe and the Jarvises worked for peace their whole lives.

They knew that the labors of mothers should never be squandered on the senseless violence of war.

Call Journal Junction at 1-800-448-1895 ext. 333 and ask why they left out the message of peace behind Mother’s Day and whether it was because it would have embarrassed a supporter of endless war like Capito by pointing out her hypocrisy.

You might also want to ask the reporter Lauren Hough at 304-263-8931 ext. 163 and politely leave a message asking her how Capito’s war stance squares with Jarvis’ love of peace. You might also email her at lhough@journal-news.net.

Did you know there’s an election coming up this week? Yep, on Tuesday, May 15th, the City of Brotherly Love will hold its mayoral primary. I certainly don’t have a dog in this fight, but hey, an election is an election. Swing Staters, is this the only game in town, or are there any other local contests going on this week as well?

As always, you can use this thread to talk about Philly (that’s “wiz wit,” Mr. Kerry), or any other races which strike your fancy.

P.S. Final request: If you haven’t taken the BlogAds reader survey, I’d be grateful if you would. And I promise, this is the last time I’ll ask!

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

A few miscellaneous notes to pass along from the last week.

Mike Fahey has a 54% favorability rating in the Nebraska Democratic Party’s poll released last week. The New Nebraska Network sees this as a positive sign, since Fahey is not a statewide officeholder, and suggests he may be able to bridge the gap between Omaha and the rest of the state.

Rep. Adrian Smith (NE-03) might just be a Jon Bruning supporter. The Lincoln Journal Star reports that Smith’s name is not included among the hosts of Hagel’s big upcoming fundraiser. He is one of only two Republican elected officials (besides Bruning) who is not listed as a host.

I’ve been walking back from my earlier statements that Bob Kerrey wouldn’t run, because it seems like a very real possibility now. Kerrey will headline  the state party’s annual fundraising dinner on June 23rd in Omaha.

Meanwhile, Behlen Manufacturing chairman Tony Raimondo announced that he would seek the Republican nomination should Chuck Hagel decide against seeking reelection.

And former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is planning on announcing Tuesday that he will be running for Senate should Hagel not run.

Now, all of this movement in the last couple of weeks, and still, Hagel’s got a big fundraiser planned for next weekend, with the Senate’s top Republican planning to attend. Where does that leave us? Just as puzzled as ever. I was ready to call Hagel as in the race three weeks ago – and I am convinced right now that was a premature judgment.

Stay tuned – things are getting interesting.

Originally appeared at West Virginia Blue.

Now that vulnerable Republican Rubberstamp Rep. Shelley Moore “Stay the course” Capito chickened out from challenging Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D), we know who our opponent will be in WV-02 in 2008.

I’m looking forward to it.

The newspaper pundits who have consistantly failed to report on vulnerable Republican Rubberstamp Rep. Shelley Moore “Stay the course” Capito’s frequent flip flops and lack of stature in Congress keep trying to tell us she’s doing a “good job.”

A woman who continues to support PResident George W. Bush’s unpopular war with a blank check to keep the troops in Iraq forever is doing a “good job,” they claim. A woman who has handcuffed herself to PResident Bush — now at 28 percent approval — is going to win re-election easily, they claim. I guess since they’ve said Capito does a “good job” they’re not going to bother to report on the reality of Capito and look into her record.

Here’s what Capito said in the Charleston Daily Mail:

“One thing I’ve learned over four campaigns is that I’m going to have an opponent,” Capito said. “I’m sure it will be a tough race. I have no idea who it’s going to be. Again, I don’t spend time thinking about it. If I do a good job, everything will fall into place.“

How “good” of a job is she doing? Here’s her ratings on the nonpartisan Congress.org:

Rank in Chamber: 421 (out of 439)
Rank in Party: 185
Rank in Class of 2000: 38 (out of 38)

Even last year when her Republican party was in power, she was ranked 311. Democrats in the minority party had more stroke in Congress than she did. Heck, she has been nothing but a reliable rubberstamp for crooks like Tom Delay and others.

Here’s how she compares to the rest of the West Virginia caucus:

Senate:
Byrd: 3 out of 100
Rockefeller: 13 out of 100
House:
Rahall: 22 out of 439
Mollohan: 64 out of 439
Capito: 421 out of 439

So, if she does a “good job” everything will fall into place? The only place she is considered to do a “good job” is in the friendly confines of newspaper columns. The rest of us live in reality and Democrats smell blood in the water.

Cue the music.

[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update.  Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.

Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle.  With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.

(See below for the full update.)

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007.  This is a gigantic red flag.  Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector.  He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter.  Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal.  Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here.  First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month.  Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend.  Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid.  Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement.  While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.”  Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid.  It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1.  However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect.  First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired.  Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?  Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority.  Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid.  But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary.  And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days.  Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.

EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch.  Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position.  An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.

DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”

DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.

With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:

Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)

On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)

Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years.  As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote.  That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.

This time, the man itching for a fight is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, of that Heimlich family, it would seem).  Heimlich served for eight years on the Cincinnati City Council and one term on the Hamilton County commission until his defeat by Democrat and former Cincinnati mayoral candidate David Pepper last November.  It’s an okay resume, but his experience is decidedly more city-focused than the largely suburban/rural nature of the 2nd district–something that could conceivably hurt him in a head-to-head with Schmidt.

Still, Heimlich says he means business:

Heimlich said in an e-mail message to supporters that he has filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission and that his campaign treasury, which will be overseen by Bill Luchsinger, contains $120,000.

“Our party is yearning for a return to the principles established by Abraham Lincoln, the leadership and dignity demonstrated by Ronald Reagan and the common sense conservative values shared by all Republicans,” Heimlich said.

If that’s the case, Mr. Heimlich’s $120K puts him in a good position against Schmidt, whose lackadaisical fundraising pace only left her with $17,000 cash-on-hand (and $20K raised) after the first quarter of 2007.

Essentially, if Heimlich, or any other halfway stable Republican beats Schmidt in the primary, this district is most likely off the playing field for Democrats in 2008.  Any Republican who hasn’t spent their time advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into their congressional district, brushing off the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown”, or being scolded by the state’s Elections Commission for displaying a “reckless disregard for the truth” is going to have a much smoother ride than Schmidt in this solidly Republican district.  Our best case scenario would be for Heimlich and possibly one or two other credible Republicans to hammer Schmidt mercilessly for a year, leading her to another underwhelming plurality victory, and letting Vic Wulsin or the eventual Democratic nominee take over from there.

(Hat tip: Buckeye State Blog)

Race Tracker: OH-02

Cross posted over at Daily Kingfish and Daily Kos

Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, (R-Baton Rouge) in testimony to the House Government Affairs Committee on 2 May 2007 used a racist code word in support of his position to deny Louisianans displaced by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita the right to vote in Louisiana elections. 

He was invited to give his opinion on Jalila Jefferson-Bullock’s HB 619, which would extend the right of displaced persons to vote in Louisiana elections for the upcoming gubernatorial election this fall. 

The code word used by Secretary Dardenne?  Chaos.

UPDATE: Don’t believe this?  Then click here
and go to 2 May 2007, and click on House Gov Affairs.  It’ll launch Real Player, and in the interest of saving you 3 hours, skip to 2:40, and watch from there.

Many younger folks won’t remember this, as they weren’t alive for it … (I wasn’t) … but Richard Nixon, back in 1968, used the words “law and order” in campaign commercials while showing scenes of riots in urban areas.  In other words, the commercial showed scenes of African-Americans rioting in the urban centers of America the summer after Dr. King was shot, and the voice-over said, Richard Nixon will restore law and order to America, or some variation of it.  This was the beginning of the Southern Strategy for the Republicans, one which emphasized white power over people of color.  And Secretary Dardenne is proudly following that script. 

For Secretary Dardenne to use the word “chaos” in describing the use of satellite voting locations during the New Orleans Mayoral election in 2006 is ingenious at best, racist as hell at worst.  Obviously, most of the displaced folks in New Orleans that haven’t been able to return are African-American, as the only section of the city that is still largely uninhabitable is the 9th Ward, which includes the Lower 9th, which is still a ghost town today.  And guess who most of the residents of the 9th Ward were?  African-Americans. 

During his testimony, he constantly changed his reasons for not being supportive of this bill … First, it was that his office has no money to conduct early voting, then it was that there no one to run the effort, then it was that his office didn’t have any voting machines, then it was that his office spent too much money on the voting machines, then it was that it took too much time to count ballots, then it was the whole process was chaos, and too difficult to implement, and too susceptible to fraud. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Of all those “reasons,” the fraud one is most serious one.  The way to combat such fraud is simple … making sure that every Registrar of Voters office throughout the State of Louisiana has access to the voting records for the 11 Parishes affected by the bill, and OVERSIGHT.  Each displaced person who comes forward to vote in a different parish has to sign a statement stating that they are the person they claim to be, and leave some current contact information.  If it turns out that someone is committing fraud, guess what?  By signing that statement, they are essentially saying, “If I am lying, you have the right to prosecute me for misrepresentation.”  And if someone commits fraud in such an instance, then, by all means, Mr. Dardenne, prosecute their lying behind.

For someone who makes no secret about his desire to be Governor, running an election is difficult?!  Mr. Dardenne, running an election is a cakewalk compared to governing Louisiana.  Perhaps you better stick to the Secretary of State’s office for awhile.  Or better yet, just go home when your term is up.

The bottom line is that Secretary Dardenne objects to having to spend some MONEY for early voting in satellite locations throughout Louisiana for voters who say they have been displaced from their parish of residence. We’re not even talking about going to Atlanta, or Houston, or Denver, where quite a few of our citizens were displaced to.  We’re talking about putting a freaking voting machine in the Registrar of Voters offices throughout the state of LOUISIANA, in the event that a displaced New Orleanian, or a displaced resident of Cameron, shows up in another parish’s Registrar of Voters office to vote in the gubernatorial election.

Guess what?  Democracy ain’t free.  Over the last 204 years, Louisianans have shed their BLOOD for our right to vote, and are currently doing so in Iraq and Afghanistan, and our lovely Secretary of State is opposed to spending some MONEY to allow some of our citizens to exercise their right to vote. 

Give him a call … and let him know he’s WRONG on this issue.  1-800-883-2805 … and make him spend some more money while you’re at it.

The Netroots community has been drifting.  In many ways the unity of purpose and mission that comes from an election cycle has been lost in the ruckus surrounding both the Presidential Primaries and the duels over contrasting strategies on how to best end the War in Iraq.  However there is clearly no better way to force the President to change course than to override his veto.  Already the Republican Minority Leader John Boehner is discussing the possibility of re-evaluating the issue come September. He should not be allowed to wait.  But how can we tie Republican hands..  We can force them by electing Jim Marlow to Congress on June 19th or in the subsequent runoff election.

The vote to override the President failed by roughly 70 House votes.  The Republicans in Congress, so far with rare exception, have looked at Iraq in primarily political terms.  Stick with the President, paint the Democrats as abandoning the War on Terror, and other such calculations. They tend not to see the 2006 Election as a repudiation of the War in Iraq, but as primarily about corruption or spending or other transient or fixable things. Although Iraq may have been the dagger in the Northeast, this was a region Republican members of Congress had been considering abandoning for some time. “Safe” Republicans need to know they are vulnerable too.  To gain the 70 House votes we need to override this President, we need to pick up 60 Republican votes. However there are only 49 Republicans who represent districts in which George Bush  got 55% of the vote or less in 2004.  Right now roughly 2/3 of the Republican Caucus is sitting pretty, thinking my seat could never belong to a Democrat.  Therefore why risk alienating my President and, judging from Thursday’s debate, the next Nominee, by admitting that the Democrats are right about Iraq.  This is where Georgia 10 comes in. More Republican members of Congress, particularly Southern members of Congress need to feel Iraq could be the issue that costs them their seat. Of the 49 swing districts held by Republicans, only 6 are in the South.  If business as usual prevails in GA 10, i.e. a safe Republican seat just returns to the Republican Party, then no national polling, or debate or rally or phone call will come close to forcing Republican Members of Congress  to accept the Political reality of Iraq, let alone the policy reality. However, were this seat, in the one state in 06 to trend slightly GOP.,  lost to the Democrats  or even if Jim Marlow were to come close, the political foundation for folks such as Mitch McConnell or any of the other Southern Republicans Leadership would crumble.  Now there’s no doubt that we could lose this race in catastrophic fashion and the Democrats could lose three more Georgia House Seats, and still merrily expand our  House and Senate Majorities and capture the White House. But in the meantime nothing will create the divide between the White House and Republicans in Congress needed to End the War, like a loss in Georgia Ten. Let’s get it done.
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