(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)
Do a “hard refresh” in your browser. In Firefox and IE, it’s Ctrl-F5 (or Cmd-F5 on a Mac). Instructions for other browsers are here. (Paul from SoapBlox just installed some upgrades on our back-end, but they might make the front-end look temporarily out-of-whack – hence the hard refresh.)
According to the Washington post, (link http://blog.washingt…) former presidential possibility mark warner is considering a run at Virginia’s senate seat in 2008. He’s spoken with Chuck Schumer repeatedly, and will not rule out a run, with or without Senator John Warner running. If (Mark) Warner does indeed run, this would be momentous. For one, it’s another senate seat that opens up, possibly expanding our majority. Two, he might bring out voters and maybe even put Virginia into the dems column in the prez race for the first time since 1964. It could also bring out voters and get other house candidates elected in Virginia. This would be a top-tier race (Assuming both Warners run, mark Vs another candidate, such as Rep Tom Davis might lean more to our favor) and his running would have immense repercussions come 08. Let’s hope he dives in!
A version of this originally appeared at West Virginia Blue.
I like Gov. Joe Manchin and have touted him here and elsewhere, but I think he should run for another term here and do the work that is needed in West Virginia before he considers a run for higher office. The often Republican friendly Charleston Daily Mail, hiding behind a “some say,” which really appears to hang on just one person commenting, believes Manchin is already making a bid as vice presidential material or U.S. Senate.
From the article:
The first-term governor has been catching the eye of national Democratic Party officials and is getting opportunities to speak before national audiences as he assumes leadership roles in a handful of influential organizations.
On Sunday he was a guest on Fox News talking about energy independence as the chairman-elect of the Democratic Governors Association, a post formerly held by Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.
Richardson is a potential presidential candidate and Manchin ally.
Manchin, 59, also is the chairman-elect of the Southern Governors Association. The governor currently heads the Southern States Energy Board.
He’s becoming more visible in Washington, flying in state aircraft to the nation’s capital at least 30 times since taking office 28 months ago, according to state aviation records. He’s been there three times so far this year.
Manchin’s trips to Washington could easily be tied to his work on the national board of governors, which he will head next year.
The always interesting Lincoln Walks at Midnight points out that Manchin already has discussed his plans to remain West Virginia’s governor:
“I can honestly tell you I am not in any way, shape or form pursuing that whatsoever… You never know what will happen, but I can tell you that with the job I have right now, there’s so much still we have left to do in West Virginia.”
Personally I think he should run for governor in 2008 for another term and then run for Senator Robert C. Byrd’s seat should he retire in 2012 when Senator Byrd, now 89 and still one of the sharpest minds in the Senate, would be 95.
Another possibility from West Virginia: State Sen. John Unger (D) as a challenger to Rubber Stamp Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito. He won big in 2006 in a very red Berkeley County and is well-respected in Charleston. I’ve not heard if he’s going to throw his hat into the ring in 2008, but he definitely should.
We all know who is out there being touted by the national press for 2008. Who else has potential to break into the national scene in 2008?
Over at BlueNC, justing, brings our attention to a new poll conducted in North Carolina.
I say new because it was released today, although the poll was in the field almost 3 weeks ago. What is most important about this poll was that it was conducted by the DSCC. They are paying attention!
The results? Dole is in big trouble, and North Carolina hates George Bush. Before going too far into the poll results, let me point out that this poll asked the question, “Who did you vote for in 2004?” The respondents matched up to the state’s actual total, 56% Bush and 43% Kerry.
Generally speaking, do you think that things in the nation are going in the right direction these days, or do you feel that things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 22%
Wrong Direction 68%
Not Sure 10%How would you rate the job that George W. Bush is doing overall as president – would you say that he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
Excellent 10%
Good Job 26%
Fair Job 26%
Poor Job 38%
Those numbers match up fairly closely to what other polls have shown across the state. North Carolina might have taken a little longer than others, but we know George Bush is bad.
Now for Dole
How would rate the job that Elizabeth Dole is doing as U.S. senator – would you say that she is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?
Excellent 11%
Good Job 38%
Fair Job 33%
Poor Job 13%
Unsure 5%
When you add it up that is a 49 to 46 approve to dissaprove ratio. +3 is beyond bad for an incumbent, it is bordering on Santorum numbers.
Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%
In other words, against no named opponent Dole “leads” 35 to 23. Do I need to repeat that? THIRTY FIVE TO TWENTY THREE. The minute someone declares their intention to run against her this becomes a top tier target. For a list of possible names please read this diary that I did last week.
In the wake of Al Gore’s victory (okay, technically it was Davis Guggenheim’s victory, but you get the idea) at the Oscars, I anticipated a wave of positive press about Gore’s efforts to raise awareness of global warming. What I didn’t anticipate were the numerous comments from the press . . . about Gore’s appearance, specifically, his weight.
The conventional wisdom seems to be that Gore cannot run for national office until he drops some pounds, as he did in 2000. In addition to being shocked that this topic would even come up in the wake of the seriousness of _An Inconvenient Truth_, I was also struck by how those critics (and Democratic consultants, including, not surprisingly, Donna Brazile,) don’t have a clue as to how people respond to image in politics.
Let’s assume Gore jumps into the race (as I certainly hope he will.) If I were advising him (not that he needs to get into the habit of listening to advisers, as that’s a big part of what did him in in ’00,) I would tell him not to lose too much weight. Right now, Gore looks avuncular. And, for a Democratic presidential candidate, avuncular is a GOOD THING!!!! Remember how the Rove smear machine was able to portray Kerry and Edwards as effeminate sissies (all those stupid jokes about them being gay because they hugged so much) partially because of their physical presentations? Kerry was slim, overly well-groomed, and was caught on film windsurfing. (The fact that he was from the state that had just legalized gay marriage, and that the Democratic National Convention was held there, to boot, certainly didn’t help matters as far as this image was concerned.) The meme of Edwards-the-prettyboy is still alive and well today– major political web sites and news programs have made reference to the very popular YouTube video that shows Edwards scrutinizing over his hair before going on TV (and whoever posted it on YouTube accompanied it with the theme music “I Feel Pretty.”) An overly-attractive, too-well-groomed candidate reinforces the right wing smear machine’s portrayal of Democrats as weak, effeminate sissies.
As a counter-example, take a look at the 2006 senate race in Montana. The Repubs ran an ad called “The Brokebank Democrats,” simultaneously trotting out the meme of Dems as tax-raisers AND making reference to the film _Brokeback Mountain_, thereby effectively designating the Democrats as being “gay.” Had our candidate been an elegant-looking, wispy intellectual, the smear might’ve stuck. But one look at flat-topped, big-bellied Jon Tester, and the tired old trick of the Republicans melted away. Nobody could accuse a guy who looked like Tester of effeminacy or wimpiness!
Now, I know that a senate race in one state is not the same as a national election, and that a guy who looked as rough-hewn as Tester couldn’t appear on a national ticket. But I hope that Gore maintains something of his avuncular image, rather than slimming back down into prep-school-prettyboy territory. A slight girth, combined with his older-looking visage, will shield him from being the easy target of the same old right-wing stupidity.
According to the Yale Daily News, CT State Democratic Party Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo has confirmed earlier rumors that former New York Rangers superstar Mike Richter is considering a run against frequently embattled Republican Rep. Chris Shays in Connecticut’s 4th district.
Maura over at My Left Nutmeg has more:
Multiple sources throughout the district had mentioned to me that Richter would be meeting with some local party chairs this week, so I called Nancy DiNardo for her comments this afternoon.During our conversation, Nancy confirmed that she’ll be introducing Richter, who lives in Guilford, to DTC chairs during one of their regular 4th CD district chairs’ meetings on Thursday night.
Nancy met with Mike earlier this year about his possible run and told me, “He would make a great candidate. He’s passionate about the issues and the direction of the country.”
At this point, only one other possible candidate in the 4th has indicated to Nancy an interest in running. Other names that have been mentioned online and in print – State Senator Andrew McDonald from Stamford, Senator Bob Duff from Norwalk, and State Rep. Jim Shapiro from Stamford – have not yet spoken up to indicate an interest. Former State Party chair George Jepsen, who is relocating back to the 4th, has ruled out a run against Shays, and Ned Lamont has said that he is “disinclined” to run. Nancy is encouraging all other prospective candidates to speak up and begin work on a campaign soon.
One thing’s for sure–Nancy’s right. Now is not the time for prospective opponents to Shays to doddle. They’ll need every precious month between now and November 2008 to scrape together the necessary resources and build a field team strong enough to finally topple Shays. It’s no secret that I would relish the opportunity to have Shays go head-to-head with one of the greatest American goaltenders in NHL history, but he’ll need to hit the ground running in terms of organizing.
And one more thing: when do you think Chris Shays will get his own action figure? (Hat tip to Scarce .)
Race Tracker: CT-04
Originally at Blue Hampshire, but I wanted to put it here so that the insanely smart people who come to SSP can give us some insight into the CFG.
I’ve said all along that Johnny is a free market radical extremist, and the Club for Growth’s ringing endorsement, their first of the season, cements that position. After all, he scored a solid 100% on their “no one should pay taxes for anything ever” 2005 Scorecard.
As the Hill reports, this is “unusual” for the group, since they typically target incumbents, not support them. I take this to mean that they are wise to the fact that Sununu is in deep doo-doo for ’08, and they will try to play up his libertarian side in a state friendly to that. Personally, though, I don’t see how that will help him against either announced candidate Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (who is pro-business) and possible contender Stonyfield Farm Yogurt Baron Gary Hirshberg (who is business).
Been awhile since you last heard of the “Club”? Well, here’s a refresher. The CFG spent a million dollars trying to replace Arlen Specter with Pat Toomey, who ultimately lost and is now the head of the Club. They’ve also run ads against Snowe and Voinovich and Chafee.
In other words, they are the definition of an anti-RINO group.
Ergo, through their very endorsement, they utterly destroy any semblance of Sununu’s “moderate” persona.
And who can forget this:
But CFG does not simply target moderate Republicans; they also attack Democrats, including the party’s presidential candidates who CFG refers to as “liberal losers.” They have been particularly obsessed with former Vermont governor Howard Dean. CFG has run a series of negative ads about him in several primary states, including one in which an elderly couple angrily tells Dean to “take his tax-hiking, government-expanding, latte-drinking, sushi-eating, Volvo-driving, New York Times-reading . . .body piercing, Hollywood-loving, left-wing freak show back to Vermont, where it belongs.”
Expect more of the same well-funded pap to be heading our way from this malign entity.
Thoughts?
(Oh, and if you are interested in more on Sununu, please feel free to visit our Sununu tag at Blue Hampshire.)
For the past several months we have been getting our new Southern netroots site http://bluesunbelt.com up and running. We are in need of front pagers who can contribute diaries on politics and issues of the Southern and Sunbelt states that are our demographic focus area.
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Ronnie Musgrove, who served as Governor and Lt. Governor of Mississippi, has been reported in the past week to be considering a return to politics by running for Lt. Governor. Musgrove would have been the strongest Democratic nominee for the office which is being vacated by GOP Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck.
Key Democrats tell the Magnolia Report that former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is saying he’s running for lieutenant governor. 2/21
http://magnoliarepor…
In an radio interview with Paul Gallo of SuperTalk Mississippi
on Friday he said his inclination was “not to run”.
BREAKING – Musgrove’s ‘inclination not to run’
http://www.mississip…
In neighboring former Alabama Gov. Jim Folsom, Jr. returned to office by being elected Lt. Governor.
Special open primaries for the remainder of the terms to end in November for LA-HD1, LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 have been held today. Polls close at 8pm CST in Louisiana, and returns should be available immediately thereafter.
Here is how the ballot appears for all three races:
State Representative, 1st Representative District
0 of 31 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0 0% Michael Page Boyter, R –
0 0% Richard “Richie” Hollier, D –
0 0% Ruth W. Johnston, D –
0 0% “Jim” Morris, R –
0 0% Marc Weddleton, R –State Representative, 4th Representative District
0 of 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0 0% Larry Ferdinand, D –
0 0% Reginald Johnson, D –
0 0% Calvin “Ben” Lester, Jr., D –
0 0% Patrick C. Williams, D –State Representative, 40th Representative District
0 of 43 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0 0% “Jim” Darby, D –
0 0% “Chris” Declouette, D –
0 0% Elbert Lee Guillory, D –
0 0% “Bradford” Jackson, N –
0 0% Roderick “Rod” James, D –
0 0% Ledricka Johnson, D –
LA-HD4 and LA-HD40 are seats guaranteed for Louisiana Democrats. LA-HD4 is centered around Shreveport, and it extends into some of the more rural portions of Caddo Parish. A district with an African-American majority, LA-HD4 was previously held by Cedric Glover, who is now the first African-American Mayor of Shreveport. Larry Ferdinand and Patrick Williams, who received the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper, are considered the favorites in this race, and I imagine they will face each other in a runoff. Whoever wins LA-HD4 will hold this seat in November, as Democrats outnumber Republicans in this district by very high numbers.
LA-HD40 is also guaranteed for the Democrats. This seat, centered around Opelousas in St. Landry Parish, was previously held by Don Cravins, Jr., who ran for and won the Louisiana Senate seat vacated by his father, Don Cravins, Sr., who is now Mayor of Opelousas. This district is both an African-American and Democratic majority district, and whoever wins it will most probably hold it in November. The Daily World, the major local newspaper, chose not to endorse any of the six candidates. Turnout for this election is approximately 16%, and reporters are anticipating a runoff between two of the six candidates.
LA-HD1, however, is not guaranteed for the Democrats. Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party. Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002. A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.
Richie Hollier, a Democrat who is running for office for the first time, has a strong grasp of the issues facing this district, and he has traveled throughout the district in order to hear its constituents’ needs. Ruth Johnston, an Oil City resident who has served as Justice for the Peace, an elected office, for 18 years, is a former restaurant owner who desires to make government and the legislative process more accessible to the residents of the first district. Both of these Democrats will face stiff competition from “Jim” Morris, a Caddo Parish Commissioner, who has received key endorsements from other Republicans in the district as well as the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, the major local newspaper. Morris believes problems with Louisiana’s public school system will be solved with the introduction of prayer into the classroom, which leads me to wonder how an editorial board can endorse his candidacy in the open primary. The other Republicans are not considered viable: Marc Weddleton just moved to the area two years ago, and Boyter is a regular gadfly whose platform is marijuana rights.
Turnout for LA-HD1 has been very low: only 100 ballots were cast during the early voting period in all of Caddo Parish, which also includes the race for the open seat of LA-HD4. Moreover, Caddo and neighboring DeSoto Parish have been under a tornado watch all afternoon. And while one would believe this would depress turnout, some claim it may increase it in some areas. But turnout overall has varied from 2% to 16%.
LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race. If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November. If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November. Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature. And if we lose LA-HD1, then capturing LA-HD94, the special election for which will be held on 10 March, will be mandatory. That can be done by supporting Deborah Langhoff.
The returns should be available at 8:30pm CST.