Swing State Project

Since Republican Cong. Charles Boustany has now ruled out a race against incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana it appears that she may be in better shape for another term than was originally thought. A January poll published today in the Advocate shows that she leads Republican challenger Jay Dardenne by a wide margin. The Louisiana race has been of much concern to Democratic insiders because of the loss of hundreds of thousands of voters who relocated to other states after Hurricane Katrina.

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This is my first posting on Swing Space Project.  I’m here not only because I care about the outcome of elections – I do – but because how we elect them matters, and what they stand for matters too.

And I’ll come right out and say it: while it’s exciting that a new wave of members of Congress just swept into office in 2007, I’m worried that the way campaign finance works and the rigors of fundraising will keep them-and their colleagues in Congress and in statehouses-from realizing their full potential as representatives.  So I’m here to voice my concern.  We need “clean elections,” or the full public financing of elections, as a way to restore faith in the political process and to make sure that a wide range of folks can run and win.

Jason Altmire in PA-04 was featured in a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette story on February 5th describing his fundraising prowess since November 7. 

Just three months after his victory over incumbent Melissa Hart, U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire is keeping a brisk fund-raising pace.

Sounds like he’s no slouch-and that’s critical if he wants to remain in his seat in a battleground district.

The Post-Gazette continues:

The freshman Democrat from McCandless collected more than $74,000 between the Nov. 7 election and the end of the year, according to campaign finance data released last week.

But note the juxtaposition, because then he said this:

I’d support and work hard to pass any bill that takes money out of politics.

And he did this:

Mr. Altmire signed onto the “Voters First Pledge” of the Public Campaign Action Fund, Common Cause (where I work), Public Citizen and other groups who argue that public financing of elections would allow politicians to spend less time raising money and more time tending to the concerns of constituents.

Altmire is far from the only one.  So many of the Democrats who ran and won seats in November campaigned on the issues of corruption and the need to restore transparency and trust in the government.  Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel is giving all the freshmen the $1 million homework assignment: Rep. Tim Walz (MN-01) said Mr. Emanuel told him

Start raising money now… And here’s your goal. Have $1 million in the bank by the time this race gets ready next time.

So which are they supposed to do, legislate or fundraise?  And similarly, when they’re on the campaign trail, do they talk to voters or big donors?  The answer, eight hours out of 10, is the latter.  I don’t blame them – in fact, I trust Altmire when he says he wants to take money out of the process – but I’m fed up with this system where the Jason Altmires of the world (and the Patrick Murphys and the Tim Walzs and the Jerry McNerneys) have to raise boatloads of money instead of going in there and actually cleaning up.

Luckily there’s momentum to pass this sort of fundamental campaign finance reform for Congress, led by Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. John Tierney, but it’ll still take some pushing from the rest of us.  Just putting progressive-minded folks in office isn’t the last step – it’s making sure our system doesn’t prevent them from working towards the changes that they want, that all of us – not just the deep-pocketed donors – need.

This diary has been cross posted on CommonBlog.com

How else am I to read into this quip by Republican Senator Jim Inhofe at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference?

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) got the crowd cheering early in the day. “I have been called — my kids are all aware of this — dumb, crazy man, science abuser, Holocaust denier, villain of the month, hate-filled, warmonger, Neanderthal, Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun,” he announced. “And I can just tell you that I wear some of those titles proudly.”

As an aside, Oklahoma Democrats would be well-advised to run a credible challenger against Inhofe in 2008.  It’d be worth it alone to see what other “laugh lines” Inhofe produces during the scheduled televised debates.

(Hat-tip to the always sharp Senate 2008 Guru.)

Race Tracker: OK-Sen

That’s the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:

On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives.  All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots.  This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts.  The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats.  Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:

Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy “Hoppy” Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party.  Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002.  A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.

And here’s what she had to say about what was at stake:

LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race.  If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November.  If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November.  Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.

So let’s put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry’s performance in the district in 2004.  When the locals can’t break Kerry’s benchmark, you know that we’ve written a new definition for “rock bottom” in Louisiana.

So what happened?  By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not.  Their candidate, “Jim” Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown.  Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall.  By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.

Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits.  As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year.  With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.

The stakes of this are fairly high.  Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans.  On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana’s congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state’s representation to account for population loss.

Additionally, how does ceding certain “swing” districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats’ ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu?  Not well, I would argue.

If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats.  With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial.  Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.

The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly–the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue–one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle.  Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out?  Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov | LA-Sen | LA-03

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!

What’s the story, morning glory?

The fine folks over at The Albany Project have some good news for Democrats in New York’s 29th Congressional District: Eric Massa is in for a rematch against “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl.  According to the Star-Gazette:

Democrat Eric Massa, who nearly unseated incumbent Rep. John R. Kuhl Jr., R-Hammondsport, last November, will seek the 29th District Congressional seat again next year.

Massa announced today that he is officially opening an exploratory committee to prepare for the contest.

“I was going to be very happy to stay in retirement,” Massa said. “But the issues of today underline the need for an honest debate of the issues.”

Massa, a retired Naval officer who lives in Corning, said he is starting from “ground zero” to build a campaign staff, raise money and establish a headquarters.

Massa, a former Naval officer and aide to General Wesley Clark, was an incredible candidate in 2006.  In particular, he was one of the most proactive candidates in terms of his enthusiastic use of the netroots to generate interest and support for his run.  One only needs to look at how quickly his highly-readible diaries are catapulted to the recommended list over at DailyKos to see the mark that his run has left on the blogosphere.  He also raised over $400,000 on Actblue.com (including nearly $60k from the Dailykos/MyDD/SSP Netroots Candidates page), using the power of the internet to outraise his opponent–not an easy feat against an incumbent.

Massa had a couple of bad breaks towards the end of his campaign–he caught some unfortunate press coverage due to some unprofessional antics of his short-lived original campaign manager, and for reasons which I’ll never quite understand, the DCCC chose not to answer the NRCC’s $600,000 hit job against Massa in the final weeks of the campaign.  Since Massa ultimately lost by a mere 3 points, one has to wonder if history would have been different had the DCCC been more aggressive.

But 2006 may not go down as Eric’s last best chance.  According to the Fighting 29th, the district’s conservative base has been sniping at Kuhl–and giving him the ultimatum of lurching even further to the right, or facing a possible primary challenge (and some speculate that maybe even a general election challenge on the Conservative line could be in the works).  With the local GOP infighting and Iraq spiraling out of control, Eric could make another race of this.

Race Tracker: NY-29

As we all know by now, the DSCC is heavily courting former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008–and, remarkably, Warner is not ruling it out, even if longtime incumbent John Warner decides not to retire.

What this creates is a possible dream scenario in Virginia:  John Warner, having survived a close call by a self-funding Mark Warner in 1996, had a difficult enough time beating back a challenge against a political unknown, winning by only 5 points.  At the time, the elder Warner remarked:  “It was tough – a tough two years.”  The conventional wisdom is that John Warner, who will be 81 in 2008, would not mind another term in the Senate–he just doesn’t want to campaign for it.

So, Mark Warner enters the race.  John Warner gets the spooks and announces an early retirement, making way for his preferred successor: 11th district Rep. Tom Davis (R).  In fact, the WaPo has already indicated that Warner has signaled Davis to get ready:

However, some doubt John Warner’s commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. “Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready,” the source said.

Davis would be a pretty strong candidate for the Republicans: he currently represents one of their weaker areas of the state–the rapidly diversifying D.C. suburbs in Prince William and Fairfax counties.  This is the one region that has been nudging Virginia closer and closer to the left.  Take a look at the district’s chronolgy:

2004: John Kerry wins 49.29% of the district’s vote to George Bush’s 49.92%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) wins 55.67% of the vote to Jerry Kilgore’s 42.42%
2006: Jim Webb (D) wins 54.69% of the vote to George Allen’s 44.20%

So Davis could be strong statewide against an average Virginia Democrat, but he wouldn’t stand a chance against Mark Warner, who retired with a mind-boggling 80% approval rate.  And with the recent robust victories of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the 11th, Democrats would clearly be well-poised to capture this open seat with a strong candidate.  Any idea who we’d run for it?

Man oh man, what a glorious twofer it would be: a pick-up in both the Senate and House–both of which will be badly-needed to protect and expand the Democratic majorities.  If Chuck Schumer pulls this off (and he has had some stellar success in the past in this area–see Missouri, 2006), he could very well be elevated to demigod status.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen | VA-11

[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.

From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.

Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?

More below the fold.

SEEMS OBVIOUS

Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary

Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor

Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote

Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi

Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling

Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating

SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS

Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems

Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36

Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?

Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?

New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10

New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)

You know, I figure that, since David has his hands full doing, um, whatever it is that ambitious attorneys do all day, I should seize the moment and completely overhaul the Swing State Project.  Perhaps I’ll start with a name change.  How does “RichterBlog” sound to you?

Anyway, in all seriousness, everyone’s favorite former New York Ranger turned prospective Democratic politician has been busy testing the waters in Connecticut for a potential run against lonely Republican Chris Shays.  The Associated Press has a great piece up which I suggest you read.  The latest scoop: it looks like we’ll know whether or not Richter will run within a few weeks.  Here are some key pieces:

Richter, a 40-year-old Democrat who lives in Guilford, said he expects to make a decision in the next few weeks about whether to run for the Fairfield County seat in 2008.

“I’ve considered entering public office in some form for a long time,” Richter told The Associated Press. “I’m getting positive responses.”

[…]

Richter worked last year for U.S. Rep. John Hall, a Democrat and former musician who upset six-term incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in upstate New York. Richter helped Hall, who opposed the Iraq war, win over police officers, fire fighters and other constituents who might not have otherwise voted for him, said Tom Staudter, Hall’s spokesman.

“He was hugely popular,” Staudter said, describing Richter as bright and friendly. “He’ll be great.”

In a sign of his status, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani named his dog “Goalie” after Richter.

[…]

But Richter could pose a big threat given the reverence many Americans hold for sports stars, Rose said.

“That hockey background could actually be an attraction to some voters here,” Rose said. “It would be sort of a blast of fresh air in the 4th District.”

After two unsuccessful kicks at the can by former nominee Diane Farrell, who could not even beat an increasingly and bizarrely erratic Shays in a wave year like 2006, I’m ready for that fresh air.  Are you?

And don’t worry: SSP will resume its regularly scheduled programming soon.

Race Tracker: CT-04