Swing State Project

My internet access at home is on the fritz, so I might as well put up an open thread while I still have the chance.

Lots of buzz around the tubes lately, from Chuck Hagel retirement/Presidential chatter to the netroots scoring a big win over Fox News.  Also, if you missed DavidNYC‘s front page action alert on DailyKos targeting ethically-challenged Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), please check it out and help prod the House into initiating an ethics investigation against Wilson.

What’s on your mind lately?

UPDATE: A little birdie tells me that Darcy Burner (D) has just filed for a rematch against Rep. Dave Reichert (R) in WA-08.

UPDATE 2: The Wall Street Journal speculates that Woody Jenkins, who narrowly lost a bitterly disputed election in 1996 to Mary Landrieu, will challenge her for the seat once again this year.  Jenkins last ran statewide in 1999, for his bid for Louisiana Commissioner of Elections (which he lost to fellow Republican Suzanne Terrell).  It remains to be seen whether or not Jenkins still has enough mojo to get the Republican nomination (remember, Louisiana is now using a closed-primary system for federal offices).

UPDATE 3 (David): Another former netroots candidate, Erica Massa (NY-29), is throwing his hat back in the ring for a rematch against “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl.

From CQ Politics:

Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who narrowly lost to Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce last November in Ohio’s Columbus-centered 15th District, will run again in 2008.

Kilroy – an elected commissioner in Franklin County, which includes Columbus – sent a letter to political supporters this week informing them of her decision, according to a statement her campaign office released Thursday afternoon.

“I want to finish this campaign,” Kilroy told CQPolitics.com in an interview. “I want to continue this campaign and bring this home so that the people of the 15th District get the kind of representation they deserve.”

As she did in her last effort, Kilroy’s 2008 rematch bid will focus heavily on her opposition to President Bush and his policies in Iraq – and will link Pryce to an administration that remains mostly unpopular.

Kilroy managed to lose a race in 2006 that many predicted (in the home stretch) she’d win, albeit by a razor-thin margin of 1062 votes.  For that reason, I’m a little hesitant to automatically support a rematch, as previous heavy-spending four-year campaigns run by candidates such as Lois Murphy in PA-06 and Diane Farrell in CT-04 fell just short of producing Democratic victories in a blue wave year.  This isn’t meant as a knee-jerk knock against second-rounders, as folks like Jerry McNerney, Paul Hodes, and Nancy Boyda took the hard lessons of their 2004 defeats and turned them around into 2006 victories.  But: A) they had the advantage of running for the second time in a wave year, and B) excluding Boyda, Hodes and McNerney ran underfunded, low-profile ’04 contests, practically allowing them to introduce themselves to district voters in 2006 for the first time all over again.  Kilroy will have the name recognition advantage, for sure, but she’ll also carry with her the baggage that millions of dollars of four years of brain-numbing media oppo brings.

Discuss.

As an aside: the bigger problem with the Ohio map is the Republican gerrymander that has split the Democratic-leaning Franklin County (which includes the Democratic city of Columbus) between Pryce’s 15th and Republican Pat Tiberi’s 12th.  Kilroy edged Pryce by a 52-48 margin in their share of the county last November, while Democrat Bob Shamansky (a sentimental favorite of SSP) only lost by a 49-51 margin to Tiberi in the rest of the county.  Swaths of Republican “heartland” tacked on to the cleaved Franklin county has denied Columbus fair represenatation for years.  Oh, the powers of the redistricting process.  Speaking of which, Ohio Democrats are only five seats short of majority status in the Ohio House, which is a far cry from their 2006 position of being 21 seats short of control.  With the Senate looking somewhat out of immediate reach, it would be nice if we could snatch control over one half of the state’s legislature to gain some leverage during the next round of redistricting.

Race Tracker: OH-15

Smith Watch has the story:

This then takes me to the most interesting link on the site. The “Expenditures” list. This is what his campaign basically wrote checks on. A lot is easily found to be campaign related. Then there were the things listed that raise eyebrows.
[…]
$141,666 to Neal Smith, Adrian’s father. A look at the FEC forms say it’s for payroll processing.

The New Nebraska Network provides some more details:

It’s hard to imagine what legitimate purpose there could possibly have been for the October 30, 2006 disbursement of $12,434 to Neal Smith for this mysterious “Payroll Processing.” To a suspicious mind, that has to sound like either a deliberately vague catch-all for a lot of different payments or else a pretty clear cut case of the Smith family keeping some of the controversial Club for Growth’s money for themselves.

And AmericaBlog digs a little deeper:

Looking at the FEC Web site, and at the electronic filings, this is how the $141,000 breaks down as direct payments to Smith’s Dad:

In-Kind: Birthday Invitations: $219.35
In-Kind: Flight for two: $497.58
In-Kind: Office Space: $2525.00
Debt Repayment: $22,055.54
Payroll Processing: $116, 389.38

From the comments:

Hmm, eliminating all corporate payments, I condensed the list down to 38 individuals who received money from Smith, including his father. The Stunning result: Smith paid more than $116000 for the processing of 332 payments to 37 persons, totalling $235,000. That’s about 50 cent for processing each dollar. Hmm, strange that Smith’s dad offered his own son such a lousy deal, isn’t it?

Smith defeated Scott Kleeb in one of the most surprisingly close races in 2006. Kudos to Lisa at Smith Watch for finding this.

This is only thinking on my part, but it seems that rather than having Al Sharpton running of prez, which it looks like he’s going to, have him run for Lindsey Gramm’s seat.

We don’t have much of a chance at this seat anyway, he may be a bit of a maverick, but they still like their repubs down in SC.  What Sharpton has is the angle, he’d be running for the seat once held by the man who owned his ancestors.  It would generate plenty of media attention and would certainly give him a better chance than any of the sacrificial lambs the SC legislature would throw out at him.  Now, I know what many of you are thinking “he’d be too controversial, he’d galvanize the republicans.”  Hillary Clinton wouldn’t do that?  Even if he did galvanize the republicans, their electoral votes are in their court (maybe not if Edwards is the nom, but he probably won’t be) as are both senate seats, both houses of the legislature, (by wide margins in the house) and all but two of their congressman.  Even if Sharpton did Galvanize the right, it wouldn’t do much, and it might even be off set by an increased surge in the African American vote.  At the very least, it keep him out of the presidential race and prevents splitting the African American vote harming Obama.  No offense to Sharpton, but if you’re going to run for president, GET ELECTED TO SOMETHING ELSE FIRST!  That’s why the republicans didn’t back Steve Forbes or Keyes.

Crossposted at both BlueNC and dailykos.

This post is a continuation of my prior diary exploring where Elizabeth Dole lives.  In this diary we delve into the world of voter fraud, and wonder whether the Doles are separated or if they live together in Washington, DC?

Personally, I find it highly doubtful that Liddy’s marriage is on the rocks.  By all accounts their marriage is happy.  I haven’t ever seen any rumors to indicate that Bob’s endorsement of Viagra was meant for any woman other than Liddy (although she did just have hip replacement?)

Anyway, the question must be asked.  Are they even married?  Bob Dole has been registered to vote in Kansas for many years.  Elizabeth Dole was too for a few decades.  In 2001, her voter registration was changed to the state of North Carolina.  What is wrong with their marriage that they live in different states?  Are they separated?  Are they contemplating divorce?  If two people live in different states for over 6 years are they considered married?

This is important, because if they are still married, and they still live in the same house, then one of them is committing voter fraud.  If they are not living in the same house, then what does that say about their family values?

Let me give you a little quote from North Carolina law.  Recognizing, of course, that neither Bob nor Liddy would ask for this; would it be possible to end their marriage right now?  Well…

Marriages may be dissolved and the parties thereto divorced from the bonds of matrimony on the application of either party, if and when the husband and wife have lived separate and apart for one year, and the plaintiff or defendant in the suit for divorce has resided in the State for a period of six months.
::snip::
Whether there has been a resumption of marital relations during the period of separation shall be determined pursuant to G.S. 52_10.2.  Isolated incidents of sexual intercourse between the parties shall not toll the statutory period required for divorce predicated on separation of one year.

  The statute mentioned in that quote states that a resumption of marital status must be shown by “a totality of the circumstances.”

I highly doubt that living in different houses for 6 years is considered to be a totality of circumstances.

Now lets move on to tax law.  As all of you should know, a married couple has the ability to either file taxes jointly or separately.  Presumably, to file a joint return, you must live at the same address.  As recently as 1996 the Dole’s were still filing their taxes jointly.  I wonder which address they have chosen as their permanent address for tax purposes?

To be fair, they could very well be filing separately.  It might even make financial sense for them to do so.  But are they using the same address?  Or is Bob filing in Kansas and Liddy in North Carolina?  Or are they filing jointly in Washington, DC?  As mentioned in my prior post, both Liddy and Bob’s addresses on their various property deeds say Washington, DC.

I was unable to get a hold of their actual tax forms, but I would love to take a look.

Lets review the facts.
The Doles are registered to vote in two different states.
Both have the same address listed on their many deeds.
In the past they have filed taxes jointly, indicating they live in the same home.

But are they committing voter fraud?  In Kansas, election law only requires that a person reside in the state for more than 15 days before the election.  Dole could meet this requirement simply by using his house in Russell as a hotel for 2 weeks and would be fine.  But what about Liddy?

Election law in North Carolina requires a longer stay, one of 30 days, but it is also a little more detailed in its protection.  It says,

That place shall be considered the residence of a person in which that person’s habitation is fixed, and to which, whenever that person is absent, that person has the intention of returning.
::snip::
The establishment of a secondary residence by an elected official outside the district of the elected official shall not constitute prima facie evidence of a change of residence.

But, there is a very important distinction between a secondary residence and a permanent residence to which you plan on returning.

Now, I would not want to commit a felony, or even a misdemeanor, by saying that either Dole is committing voter fraud.  What I will say is that there are some very serious questions that we must ask.  The answers to these questions will give us proof that either the Doles are committing voter fraud, or they are in fact living in different states.

And, if none of the above has convinced you that something fishy is going on here, I submit this video put together by my friends at WNCNN.

(Should Hagel decide to run for President, this would be a map-changing event for Senate Democrats’ 2008 battle plans. For months, I’ve assumed that Hagel was disinclined to run for President, but perhaps he sees an opening for a solid conservative challenger to the Romney/McCain/Giuliani triangle that’s been giving grief to so many conservative activists. We’re just reading tea leaves here, for now. – promoted by James L.)

Originally posted at UNO Democrats

[The rumors are flying fast now in Nebraska, and it seems like in the next couple of weeks we’re going to see some real movement on Hagel’s plans. I thought I’d repost this here to pass along the info for all of you – Dave.]

OWH:

  WASHINGTON – For a guy who hasn’t announced a presidential bid, Sen. Chuck Hagel’s schedule next week looks a lot like that of a candidate.

  He’s slated to appear with nine declared presidential hopefuls – including John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama – before a national firefighters’ group.

  He’s meeting with his political action committee’s steering committee. He’s scheduled to attend a Nebraska GOP fund-raiser in Washington.

  And speculation was running high among key Nebraska Republicans that Hagel might announce something Monday.

Follow the money, they say. If Hagel is indeed gearing up for a run, he’s got to start raising money and fast. So, this item from the same World-Herald article is noteworthy:

  The day before that speech, Hagel is expected to attend a Nebraska Republican Party fund-raiser in Washington. Then, on Thursday, he’s to sit down with the steering committee of his Sandhills PAC.

  For months, Hagel’s fundraising had been all but dormant. But he held two fundraisers in the last week, including one Friday in New York City, raising $80,000 for his Senate and PAC campaign funds.

While the money from his Senate campaign account can be transferred into a Presidential account, it is the PAC activity that would hint strongly at a run for President. This article adds a bit of fuel to the months of speculation about Hagel’s political future, and its potential impact on the Nebraska political scene. Hagel’s decision – whether or not to run for re-election, whether to run for President – is going to impact the U.S. Senate race, possibly the race for our Congressional seat, all the way down to the Omaha city elections in 2009. But it seems that Hagel’s starting to mobilize. He’s running for something – the only question is what he’s running for.

UPDATE (3:53 PM CST) by DaveSund: The New York Times reports that Hagel will hold a press conference Monday to “discuss his future plans.”

UPDATE (4:42 PM CST) by DaveSund: The press conference will be on Monday at 10 a.m. at UNO’s campus, according to the AP.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

Polls will open on Saturday for the special open primary for LA-HD94, and the ballot is set.  Here is how the ballot will appear on Saturday:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –

Deborah Langhoff, the grassroots Democrat who is running on a compelling message of government reform, has been running an aggressive campaign as evidenced by this mailer, one directed at her most redoubtable opponent, Jeb Bruneau:

Such mailers are designed to keep Bruneau on the defensive, and it appears to be working, as Peppi, Jeb’s father, the Republican who abandoned this seat before the last legislative session of his 32 year term in order to bequeath it to his son in a rushed special election, must now answer the uncomfortable questions of constituents and reporters.  Langhoff effectively shaped the main theme of this race, and everyone, including the Bruneaus, both père and fils, must react to her claims and to her message.  These quotes from a Times Picayune article demonstrate the success of Langhoff’s media campaign:

Peppi Bruneau (R)

On the campaign trail, Bruneau’s resignation is being portrayed as a “political handoff.” Peppi Bruneau, however, says the sniping is only rhetoric.

“I have always said I didn’t intend to be term-limited,” he said. “I didn’t want to do that. It was like being a lame duck, and I didn’t want to be a lame duck.”

In a response to a constituent who questioned his motives, Bruneau wrote that the winner of the special election stands to gain instant seniority over the 50-plus new House members who will be elected in the fall.

“I think that this will provide an advantage for our area, and that is why I have resigned,” he wrote. “I do not find this to be an awkward moment.”

But Peppi Bruneau scoffs at any notion that anything nefarious is afoot.

“How can you sneak something through when there are five opponents?” he asked. “I’d say interest is pretty high in this race.”

Deborah Langhoff (D)

“I’m not saying they did anything illegal, but they definitely manipulated the process,” Langhoff said.

Nick Lorusso (R)

Lorusso said Bruneau — who will step down on April 30, the first day of the regular legislative session — abandoned the devastated district for his final term of office to bolster his son’s chances of election.

“It’s outrageous,” said Lorusso, echoing the feelings of most of the other candidates. “When this district needs Peppi Bruneau the most, we won’t have him.”

Jeb Bruneau (R)

For his part, Jeb Bruneau says his father did not urge him to run for a position he feels he is prepared to hold, having served nearly two years as president of the Lakeview Civic Association and having helped to coordinate the ongoing recovery of his neighborhood.

“If you want to be upset with Peppi, be upset with Peppi,” he said. “But judge Jeb on Jeb.

“This was not my idea. I understand what it means to be part of a political family. Let’s face it, my decision to run would have been an issue in the fall, too.”

Philip Brickman (R)

For example, on his Web site, Brickman refers readers to a newspaper article on what he calls “our district’s last-minute special election.”

The cost of holding an election on that day was anticipated when lawmakers adopted the state budget last year, Peppi Bruneau said. Whatever the cost, Brickman said, “it is a waste of taxpayer money.”

John Holahan (D)

And as part of his platform, Holahan is pledging to introduce legislation to eliminate special elections when legislators resign with less than a year left in a term. Instead of incurring the expense of an election, Holahan’s proposal calls for the House leadership to fill the vacancy on an interim basis with the appointee barred from running for the job.

Langhoff shaped the terms of this election, and she has the heir apparent cornered.  As the Times Picayune reports, “While crime, education and the slow pace of the hurricane recovery are integral parts of the campaign debate, references to the incumbent’s resignation are inescapable.”

Although Deborah has effectively defined this election, she still trails in fundraising.  According to the Times Picayune,

State campaign finance reports that cover activity through Feb. 28 show that Jeb Bruneau had raised about $85,000, significantly more than any of his opponents.

Raising the next-highest total was Langhoff, with about $15,000, followed by Brickman with $5,500 and Holahan with $4,500. No fundraising was reported by either Lorusso or Vanderwall.

For a grassroots candidate with no support from the Democratic establishment, Langhoff is performing really well.  If she qualifies for the runoff, I imagine Louisiana Democrats will be forced to support her campaign.  More egregious, however, is the lack of support Langhoff is receiving from local Democrats, particularly City Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell, state Sen. Ed Murray and state Rep. J.P. Morrell, who are all inexplicably endorsing Republican Jeb Bruneau. These three elected officials should reconsider their endorsements,especially as Democrats may lose their majorities in the state House and Senate.

But Deborah has secured the endorsements of the AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, a Hurricane Katrina relief organization.  And even though Jeb Bruneau managed to secure the endorsement of establishment Democrats in New Orleans, he failed to capture the endorsement of the Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb is a member.  That endorsement went to Republican Nick Larusso.

Because this race is not yet over, I ask you to contribute to Langhoff’s campaign.  Not only has she managed to shape the terms of this election on very limited funds; she has a real chance of qualifying for the runoff.  Early support will catapult her ahead of her presumptive runoff opponent Jeb Bruneau for this crucial Louisiana House seat.  Also visit her website, where one can view her videos.  This candidate understands the issues facing her district, and she will recreate and reactivate the Louisiana Democratic Party from within.  Let us back Deborah Langhoff.

 

In the interests of not bringing only doom and gloom from the South, the Alabama Democrats (warning: this page is somewhat screwy in Firefox) put up a successful defense tonight of an open seat in the state House left vacant after its incumbent, longtime conservative Democratic Rep. Albert Hall died on November 12.  Republicans made a major push for this district, which included bringing in Gov. Bob Riley to stump for the Republican candidate.  In the end, the Democrat, Butch Taylor, was elected with a very comfortable 58%.  Democrats now enjoy a 62-43 advantage in the state house.

Well played, Alabama Democrats.  Well played.

You may remember these results from election night ’06:

4th District, Colorado

Marilyn Musgrave (R): 46%
Angie Paccione (D): 43%
Eric Eidsness (Reform): 11%

Eric Eidsness is a former Naval officer and Reagan appointee to the EPA.  His Wikipedia bio also lists his affiliation with Republicans For Kerry in 2004.  Despite competing for attention in a marquee race, Eidsness managed to pick up a bit of traction, gaining the endorsements of several local newspapers and cracking the double digits on election day.

Without wasting any time, Eidsness is back in the ring, and this time, he’s wearing Democratic stripes:

Eric Eidsness […] announced today that he’s switching his party affiliation to Democrat.

The announcement is likely a prelude to another congressional run for Eidsness, a long-time Republican who was a top Environmental Protection Agency administrator in the Reagan administration.

“I am a new Democrat who can bring business savvy and fiscal restraint to the Democratic Party’s proposals should I run for Congress in 2008 and win,” Eidsness said in a prepared statement.

I’m not sure how he’d manage in a primary field, but this an interesting development.  As far as third-party types go, it’s clear that Eidsness has a bit of game in him.  Will Colorado Democrats be comfortable–or willing–to hand the torch over to him?

(Hat-tip to Luis and Square State.)

Race Tracker: CO-04

Southern Media and Opinion Research has the first poll of the year for the Democrats’ biggest defensive target up in 2008, the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu.  In a hypothetical matchup between Sen. Landrieu and recently-elected Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, they come up with this snapshot (Jan. 12-14, likely voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): 53
Jay Dardenne (R): 38
MoE: ±4%

The poll also notes that Dardenne (who, at this point, is only one of several possible challengers to Landrieu) has a name-recognition of two-thirds in the state.  It’s nice to see Landrieu in the lead, but this it’s still way too early to get a feel for this race.  As the polling firm notes, on paper, Dardenne seems to be a fairly good challenger–already enjoying good statewide name recognition (but still with some room to grow), and 15 points is by no means an insurmountable gap at this stage in the game.  Still, in light of all of the disastrous polls showing Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) trailing Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) in the 2007 Governor’s race by as much as 24 points, it’s nice to know that the state may not ready for a complete Democratic purge just yet.  Republicans will still wisely throw everything that they have at this one, though.

(Hat-tip to rob.)

Race Tracker:  LA-Sen