NE-Sen: Okay, So… What Now?

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

The timetable hasn’t really changed for any of our candidates. Though the Presidential race is sort of altering our idea of when the race is going to get started, it’s worth remembering that none of our candidates in Nebraska got into the race until late summer 2005 for the 2006 cycle.

The Republicans are eager to get started. Former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub was giving interviews to every single local TV station yesterday. Jon Bruning wasn’t very subtle about his intentions should Hagel retire, either.

Mike Fahey had the most realistic outlook:

Mayor Mike Fahey, a Democrat, said it was too early to start the Senate race. He said it would be a good thing if Hagel’s decision to postpone an announcement shortened the race.

“These campaigns last too long the way they are,” said Fahey, who is being courted by national Democrats to run for the Senate in the event Hagel bows out.

Examining the facts, it’s hard to see Hagel’s non-announcement announcement yesterday as anything but a stall tactic. The reasoning behind it is beyond comprehension at this point (though I suspect, between a hundred some supporters on a conference call yesterday, someone will leak the information). But two specific things point to a Presidential run:

– Hagel’s appearance at an IAFF forum tomorrow.
– Hagel’s new website http://www.hagel.tv – which features a vaguely presidential campaign ad. Remember, we’re still 14 months away from the primary election for Senate.

Here’s my take:

As much as we’re growing impatient with Hagel for not making up his mind, it’s important to realize that the timetable for a Senate campaign is a lot different than the accelerated timetable for this Presidential race. Delaying until the fall isn’t going to alter Mike Fahey’s plans one iota. He likely wouldn’t announce his intentions to run for Senate until the fall, anyway. We all know Fahey can raise the money. Everyone’s assuming Jon Bruning’s going to run. Hal Daub all but said the words “I’m running for Senate” in several television interviews in the past week. But after the hell that was the 2006 Senate race, do we really want to subject the people of Nebraska to all of that again so soon, especially if Pete Ricketts gets back in the mix?

I’m convinced that Fahey’s going to run for Senate if it’s an open seat. If it doesn’t turn out that way, then we’ll have to work a lot harder, but Ryan at the New Nebraska Network had a great point:

What this proves to me is we can’t afford to be spectators any more. The Nebraska blogosphere has served as a vigilant watchdog of Chuck Hagel’s record. That’s all fine and dandy, but there comes a day when every public official must answer those critics and defend that record and for Senator Hagel, that day is Election Day, 2008. If we aren’t committed to making that a contest, we can’t pretend to be serious about building a “new Nebraska”.

Our candidates are going to operate on their own timetables, and the best we can do right now is encourage them to run. But the grassroots will be operating in other ways in Nebraska – from local elections to Young Democrats and many other places in between – until the time comes. We’ll continue to keep you posted on any developments, of course.

MA-05: Sail On, Marty

Just in case you missed it, eight-term Democratic Rep. Marty Meehan has announced that he will resign from Congress in July to become the next chancellor of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, which means that we will have a special election on tap to fill his seat within 160 days of the vacancy.

A few words about Meehan: ProgressivePunch gave him a rating of 87%, which is by no means bad, but that only fits him about midway in the Democratic caucus in terms of progressive voting patterns.  For a D+11 Massachusetts district, one would think that he could have afforded to play to the base a bit more.  My biggest knock against Marty, though, was his utter selfishness during the netroots-led “Use It Or Lose It” campaign last fall to arm the DCCC with the additional resources it needed to help expand the battlefield in closing weeks of the 2006 elections.  Despite sitting on a $5+ million warchest, Meehan only gave a paltry $125,000 (PDF) to the DCCC during the last cycle, and dug his heels in the ground while his House colleagues, such as fellow Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, donated up to 30% of their cash-on-hand on top of their required dues.  Like a squirrel burrowing more seeds than he could use underground for the winter, so too did Meehan cling to his oversized war chest in the hope that he could use it in the event of a Ted Kennedy or John Kerry retirement (which did not happen for Kennedy in ’06, and won’t for Kerry next year, either).  So, after all those months of stinginess to his fellow Democrats, Meehan won’t be able to use his warchest, anyway.  One wonders what will become of the $5m+.  Gifts to the DCCC, DSCC and other Democratic candidates?  Or will he hide it under the earth once more, hoping for a Kennedy retirement in 2012?  I’ll let you guess the answer.

In any event, it’ll be a new day for MA-05.  The question is: which one of the following names is both a suitably progressive Democrat and a team player?

Politicians eager to fill Meehan’s seat have wasted no time positioning themselves for a run, with at least 10 candidates flirting with a potential campaign. The list of Democrats include Niki Tsongas, wife of the late US senator Paul Tsongas; state Representative Barry R. Finegold of Andover; Eileen Donoghue, the former Lowell mayor and current city councilor; state Representative James B. Eldridge of Acton; and Stephen Kerrigan, a former aide to Senator Edward M. Kennedy and to Attorney General Thomas Reilly.

Race Tracker: MA-05

Misquoted and Misrepresented


I thought I should share this link with everyone here.  Please advise.

http://www.electdebo…

And again, here is the link.  Scroll to the bottom of the link to see scanned copies of the campaign literature wherein I was misquoted and therefore misrepresented.  There is more than what I post here.

I know this diary is short, but I want everyone’s opinion.

  And no, I am not affiliated with Deborah Langhoff’s campaign or with any politician for that matter.  I am just an engaged and concerned citizen who wants to see my state rebuilt.

PRES-2008 23 States May Hold Primaries On February 5

A total of 23 states may hold primaries on February 5, 2008. By the end of the day as many as 50% of the delegates will have been chosen. The end of the long primary season is changing the game plans of all candidates as they figure out how to put their resources into the larger delegate rich states and to assess if Iowa and New Hampshire will have as much impact as they had in the past.

The presidential primary system as we have known it for 35 years is dead. History books will record that the era that began with the Democratic National Committee’s post-1968 reforms ended Aug. 19, 2006 at the hands of the very same DNC.

http://bluesunbelt.c…

LA-Sen, LA-Gov: The Latest Buzz

(I’m working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I’m heartened to hear that Breaux’s legal team believes that “citizenship” isn’t much of an obstacle–and indeed, “citizen” as a legal term is a much broader requirement than “resident”. – promoted by James L.)

1. John Breaux Is A Citizen

Highlight:

Breaux said there’s no question that he meets the state Constitution’s requirement of being a “citizen” of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.

“I don’t just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana,” Breaux said. “I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana.”

Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.

Breaux will announce in the “very near future,” or after he has a discussion with Blanco.  Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal’s supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article.  But this is my favorite comment:

But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.

“The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That’s what it is all about,” Breaux said.

2. Mary Landrieu Is Above 50%

Highlight:

GOP Sets Sights on Landrieu

The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.

Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new — a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a “vulnerable Democratic incumbent.”

Although Bolger writes that “when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican,” the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) — the Republicans’ preferred candidate — is mentioned in the memo.

Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.

One problem to consider is the NRSC’s decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid.  Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim?  And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007?  And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?

Race Tracker: LA-Sen

Let’s fight cancer II

Think back to the morning of Sept. 11, 2001. Criminals seized four airliners and crashed them into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania.

Many on board the planes realized they were going to die and many trapped in the towers knew their end was near too.

Families watched horrified, knowing they were unable to save their loved ones.

3,000 people died on Sept. 11th, taken away from their families before their time, leaving behind grief and voids where their lives were.

Cancer creates a Sept. 11th every other day.

Cancer kills 1,500 people every day. Unlike Sept. 11th, the deaths are spread out across the country and not televised. Nevertheless, the victims die before their time. Loved ones watch in sadness and fear. The deaths leave voids in the lives of others.

This year, cancer will kill about 559,650 people. Grandparents. Fathers. Mothers. Children.

To those of you who have read this before, I apologize. But I realize not everyone reads political blogs on Friday nights. So I will repeat my tale from Friday:

I’m probably best known on Daily Kos for when I wrote happy stories on Friday nights.

Tonight, I want to tell you about the worst day of my life. Then I’m going to ask you to help me do something about it.

I loved my father a great deal. He was a good, decent, hard working man. He worked his eight-hour shift at the paper mill as a mechanic and electrician and then came home and worked on the farm often until dark and sometimes beyond.

One cold January night when I was 19, the two of us were digging a trench to run electrical wiring underground from the house to a new barn.

“Boy, I just can’t seem to catch my breath,” he said, leaning on his shovel.

My father never took sick days. The only time I recalled him missing work was when he passed kidney stones.

He went to the doctor about his shortness of breath. The doctor scheduled a biopsy. I remember well the growing feeling of fear as we sat in the hospital waiting room. My younger sister left because we did not know how long the procedure would take. Soon after she walked out, we saw the doctor coming down another hall and I raced to get her. The two of us sprinted back. The biopsy showed he had inoperable cancer. It had been in his lymph nodes and spread to his heart and lungs. The doctor told him he had less than a year to live.

That night my mother’s best friend from childhood came out to the farm after she finished working her shift at the hospital.

My mother had known when she was 10 years old she wanted to marry my father. He joined the Navy at 17 during the Korean War and was stationed at Norfolk, Va., when she turned 18. He sent an engagement ring to her friend and arranged for her to be at my mother’s when he phoned to propose and then her friend slipped the engagement ring on my mother’s finger. That night she was there to explain my father’s cancer treatment options to my mother and to comfort her. I walked her out to her car and then I cried for a long time on her shoulder. Twenty three years later I can remember how wet my face was with tears.

Twenty three years of life later, that remains the saddest and worst day of my life. Even his death seven months later was not as sad for by then death was a release for him.

I often wish my father was still alive to see my daughters and to see them sitting beside him on the tractor just as he did my brother’s daughters. I would have liked that. He was a good grandfather.

Many of us have seen the scourge that is cancer in our lives, either in our own or in those we love. Mcjoan’s brother. Jane at Fire Dog Lake is fighting it again. Dreaming of Better Days is undergoing treatment for it.

Now station wagon:

sad news and a BIG F-ING PROBLEM (78+ / 0-)

in stationwagonville.  It has been 11 days since I went to my doctor with nausea and vomiting and a distended upper abdomen to an appointment with an oncologist yesterday who told my husband and me that I have advanced, too advanced to treat, liver cancer.  Monday I have a biopsy on the tumors literally squeezing out functioning liver cells to see if the cancer is primary or secondary- they have not been able to locate any source outside of my liver.  But the oncologist has a hunch that it might be my pancreas- which can be hard to see even with a CAT scan.  If it’s secondary, chemo might be able to buy me a little time, but the prognosis is grim.  We can’t process this all at once (mercifully) we keep cycling between waiting to wake up and being overwhelmed with sadness for our kids and other loved ones. 

Liver cancer is a mean mofo.  Symptoms don’t usually show up until it’s too advanced to treat.

I love you all, Kossacks.  I just needed to come here and dump this out.  I’m going to watch a movie with my son now.  I’m grateful to all of you for giving me a learning place and a haven.

In order to hide their embezzlement behind a posse of demented hicks, Republicans’ slogans must be short and superstitious. Grand Moff Texan

by station wagon on Sat Mar 03, 2007 at 08:51:36 PM EST

As I mentioned on Friday, Prayers are important. I know enough about cancer that amazing treatments are being developed. Cancer treatment has come along way since my father died of it in 1984.

Many of us have been through this terrible disease, either suffering from it or losing someone dear to us from it.

I well recall the anger I felt at seeing my father ill. That anger creates an energy to this day.

Let us put that anger and energy to use.

Let us do our part to fight this scourge upon humanity.

As I said before, I can’t research a cure or new treatment for patients or donate millions for those who do.

But I can write to Congress and urge that they fully arm those who can. We spend hundreds of billions on defense projects while people are dying at home from illness and poverty.

We need to do more as a nation to find out why cancer rates are rising, what environmental factors might be causing certain cancers to appear at younger age groups.

As I wrote Friday:

I am not asking for us to fight against death. Death is as natural as life. Our motality is what makes each day count and our time on earth is better by knowing that.

But I am saying we can work to eradicate a disease that is horrific.

What we can do as a political blog is to advocate to make certain those on the frontline of cancer and scientific research have the tools and people they need.

From the comments on Friday, it is clear that not only do we as a nation need to fully fund the National Institutes of Health and the National Cancer Institute, but also fully fund the National Science Foundation. It should not be a question of one agency played off another in order to research a cure. It should be more funding for all research. The secret to eradicate cancer and other diseases might not come from direct research, but from other, seemingly unrelated research in other fields.

I’d like to have titled this diary: “Let’s kick cancer’s ass”. It’s not going to happen easily. This has to be a long term committment from us and from our government.

Here’s the American Cancer Society’s page to email Congressional legislators. We’re not going to use their form letter however. Many of us have our own issues with the American Cancer Society for one reason or another. I’m going to include some talking points for you to feel free to use, but write of your tale of cancer. Reach inside and remember your fear and your anger and most importantly your love for those hurt by it to write from your own heart:

(Your cancer story here)

As my Congressional representative, here is what I want you to do:

? A minimum increase of 6.7 percent for the National Institutes of Health in 2008 in your program request letter to the Appropriations Subcommittee.

? Keep the promise of increasing funding for the National Science Foundation. Don’t just say you want to double the budget. Provide funding for it.

? In addition, stop looking at funding for scientific research at NIH, NCI and the NSF in five year cycles. Look at this as a long-term committment because cures won’t be found over night. Take a long term approach and develop budget plans for scientific research grants that look ahead 20 to 50 years. Developing a PhD researcher takes longer than the current budget cycles for scientific research.

? Let us work together to save lives. The economic benefits from such research can be tremendous. The lifesaving benefits can be priceless.

Sincerely,

[Your Name]
[Your Address]
[City, State ZIP]

Feel free to use any aspects of my diary in writing your emails. Feel free also to print out your letters and send them to your Congressional representative.

I’m working on other diaries for this project. One of the diaries will urge people to donate to their local hospices and Meals on Wheels programs. The fight against cancer is long term. Sometimes victory will have to be measured by such things as pain-free days. Or helping someone go home to spend their final days. Another diary will ask people to write letters to their local newspapers to increase public awareness of the importance of tax-dollar supported federal and state research. And I also want us to write to the American Cancer Society to push them to fully support all areas of scientific research, no matter how controversial.

More than 10 million people in the United States are currently being treated for cancer or have survived cancer. Countless others love those people and are glad they are alive today. Politically, this is an effort that should be bipartisan because President Nixon created the National Cancer Institute out of memory of his sister who had died from the disease. In reality, we’ve seen too many right wingers declare a war on scientific research and play shell games with funding. Let’s change that. Let’s do what we can to save lives.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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SPECIAL REPORT: “If It’s Sunday, It’s Still Conservative”

On the Sunday after the midterm elections, in which Democrats took control of Congress for the first time in a dozen years, viewers tuned in to NBC’s Meet the Press to hear what the Democratic win meant for the country — only to discover that host Tim Russert did not have any Democrats on at all. Instead, Russert’s guests were Republican Sen. John McCain (AZ) and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (CT), who ran in the general election as an Independent after losing the Democratic primary. And after an election in which the public’s opposition to the Iraq war was a central issue, Meet the Press hosted two guests who support the war.

http://www.SundayShowReport.com

But that incident is hardly an aberration. In a new report by Media Matters for America — If It’s Sunday, It’s Still Conservative: How the Right Continues to Dominate the Sunday Talk Shows, we show that the Sunday shows — Meet the Press, ABC’s This Week, CBS’ Face the Nation, and Fox Broadcasting Co.’s Fox News Sunday — have consistently given Republicans and conservatives an edge over their Democratic and progressive counterparts in the last two years, the period of the 109th Congress. And, as our analysis shows, the recent shift in power in Washington has yielded mixed results, at best.

OUR KEY FINDINGS:

Despite previous network claims that a conservative advantage existed on the Sunday shows simply because Republicans controlled Congress and the White House, only one show, ABC’s This Week, has been roughly balanced between both sides overall since the congressional majority switched hands in the 2006 midterm elections.

Since the 2006 midterm elections, NBC’s Meet the Press and CBS’ Face the Nation have provided less balance between Republican and Democratic officials than Fox Broadcasting Co.’s Fox New Sunday despite the fact that Fox News Sunday remains the most unbalanced broadcast overall both before and after the election.

During the 109th Congress (2005 and 2006), Republicans and conservatives held the advantage on every show, in every category measured. All four shows interviewed more Republicans and conservatives than Democrats and progressives overall, interviewed more Republican elected and administration officials than Democratic officials, hosted more conservative journalists than progressive journalists, held more panels that tilted right than tilted left, and gave more solo interviews to Republicans and conservatives.

Now that Congress has switched hands, one would reasonably expect Democrats and progressives to be represented at least as often as Republicans and conservatives on the Sunday shows. Yet our findings for the months since the midterm elections show that the networks have barely changed their practices. Only one show – ABC’s This Week – has shown significant improvement, having as many Democrats and progressives as Republicans and conservatives on since the election. On the other three programs, Republicans and conservatives continue to get more airtime and exposure.

In the months ahead, will the networks address the imbalance in their guest lineups? Or will they continue with business as usual?

We urge you to read the report and take action.  Tell the networks to address our findings and consider whether the Sunday shows serve the public interest by continuing to give conservatives the edge in setting the terms of the national debate.

NE-Sen, Pres: Chuck Hagel Announcement Open Thread

Since I have an exam in the morning, I won’t be able to liveblog Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel’s 10 AM Central news conference on his “future plans”.  Instead, I’ll leave this up as an open thread where you can discuss and dissect his announcement as it happens.  The New York Times boils down the possibilites to three:

It’s another cryptic announcement from Mr. Hagel, whose options include:

A.) Throwing his hat into the ring for the Republican presidential nomination.
B.) Announcing his plans to seek reelection to the Senate in 2008.
C.) Stepping down from politics when his second term expires next year.

To which I would add: D.) Both A and B.  Of course, since Hagel resolutely promised us that “twelve years in Congress is enough for anyone” back in ’96, surely the former won’t be his course of action.  After all, Chuck Hagel is integrity personified, right?  Stay tuned.

The DSCC and the speculative (and conditional) Democratic nominee, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey must be waiting with baited breath to find out whether Nebraska will have an open Senate race next year.  I’d keep UNO Democrats and the New Nebraska Network bookmarked for front row seats.

Update: Chuck Hagel joins Thad Cochran (R-MS) and John Warner (R-VA) in the ranks of indecisive and coy Senators up for re-election in 2008.  How disappointing.

Is FL-10 Winnable?

What happens if Congressman Bill Young determines all the hoopla over the Walter Reed Hospital scandal is too much and he decides to retire at the end of this term. Can a Democrat win the 10th Congressional District in Florida?

Answer below.

In the comments to my diary on Congressman Young, Progressive America made the statement:

It’s a Dem District
If Young retires, this is a Dem pickup guys. I hope the DCCC will air some ads in this district. It would be very smart to start putting pressure on Young right now.

He then added:

Cook has it at D+1. It would be a very close race, but should go to the Democrats.

PA was referring to the Partisan Voting Index from the Cook Political Report. A D+1 rating means that the district voted at a one percent greater Democratic amount then the nation as a whole based on the 2000 and 2004 elections. I don’t know if the methodology used takes into account that the district was gerrymandered more Republican during the 2002 redistricting.

In a later comment GatorDem points this out:

Unfortunately, FL-10 is a swing district 
at best without Young running. Most of the African Americans in South Pinellas were put into FL-11 (Kathy Castor) in the 2002 redistricting.  That has left the district with about 20,000 more Rs than Ds.

This district could be won when Young retires (or dies), but it would take a very strong, well financed candidate to pull it off.

I was interested in determining what the possibilities were for a well-financed, popular Democratic candidate in an open race, i.e., not against Young (or his wife).

I used the method mentioned in my diary on the 2006 Florida elections. I looked at how well Democrat Alex Sink did against Tom Lee for the Chief Financial Officer race in the District.

The two raised comparable amounts of money, but Sink is a politically astute campaigner who did well throughout the state, not just in predominately Democratic areas. Her results from the 2006 race are a good indicator of what a competent Democratic candidate can achieve.

The results:

Sink  107,711  54.3%
Lee  90,525  45.7%

That definitely looks doable to me.

Cross posted from Daily Kos

Originally published at FLAPolitics

And Derek Newton from FLAPolitics was out front on this issue by a year

LA-HD94 Special Election Returns

Tonight is the night of the special open primary for the seat Peppi Bruneau, a Republican, vacated before his term expires in November.  Polls closed at 8pm CST.  Let us hope Deborah Langhoff qualifies for the runoff.

Open primary results can be found here.

The ballot appears as follows:

State Representative, 94th Representative District
0 of 53 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
0  0% Philip C. Brickman, R –
0  0% “Jeb” Bruneau, R –
0  0% John M. Holahan, Jr., D –
0  0% Deborah J. Langhoff, D –
0  0% Nicholas J. “Nick” Lorusso, R –
0  0% William “Bill” Vanderwall, Sr., D –