Swing State Project

Barry Welsh’s Fifty State Strategy page – which tracked candidates for every single House race in the nation – was an invaluable resource this past campaign season. Barry was busy running for Congress, and yet he realized he was part of a much bigger movement. Maintaining this page (which he did with the help of several folks, including SSPer Benawu) was something Barry didn’t have to do, but he did anyway.

And while you might think this project was a time-waster, Barry did nearly ten points better than the last Dem who ran in this ultra-Republican district. Not too shabby for a guy no one had ever heard of, running in a race that was on no one’s radar outside of the netroots. But of course, making an improvement like that costs money, no matter how frugal you are, and Barry wound up with around $3,800 in debt he didn’t expect.

So let’s join with Markos here and do Barry Welsh a solid – let’s help him retire that campaign debt. Kossacks have already made a big dent, but we can chip in some more. Look at it this way: If you’re an elections junkie like me, you would have PAID for a resource like the Fifty State page – at least $10, probably more like $20, if not more. So if you can help Barry out now, consider it payment for extremely valuable services rendered. He deserves it.

(And on a related note, the Swing State Project is helping to carry on the spirit of the Fifty State Strategy page with our 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go check it out!)

(Cross posted on Daily Kos)

Since Election Day, all of the election-related talk has naturally been about 2008, with a few Kissell, Jennings, and Jefferson stories sprinkled in between them. But I say wait a cotton pickin’ minute because we have some southern gubernatorial races to deal with in 2007. Below the fold, I’ll try and go through some background on the three races, the likely contenders, and our chances. I am a Yankee and live in none of the three states, so take my analyses with the required grain of salt.

Mississippi

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Haley Barbour

Possible Democratic Candidates:
Wayne Dowdy – Former Congressman and current head of the Mississippi Democratic Party
James Graves – Member of the Mississippi Supreme Court
Ray Mabus – Former governor, 1988-1992, and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mike Moore – Former Attorney General, 1988-2004
Ronnie Musgrove – Former governor, 2000-2004, defeated in 2003 by Barbour in a close election

Governor’s Approval Rating:
59%

Analysis:
Probably will be the least competitive of the three gubernatorial races, but that’s not to say it can’t get interesting.  The only way, in my opinion, this race is winnable is if Musgrave or Moore throw their respective hats in the ring.  Moore is apparently well-liked in the state for most notably taking on tobacco companies and getting them to reimburse the state for treating patients of smoke-related illnesses.  Musgrove, being a recent former governor, obviously has the name recognition to make the race potentially competitive.  He did however lose in 2003 to Barbour, so quite a few things would have to go right for him to win again in this deep-red state.

No matter who runs however, they face a huge uphill battle facing a fairly popular Republican governor in a Republican state.

Louisiana

Date of election:
October 20, 2007 & November 17, 2007 (if necessary)

Likely Democratic Nominee:
Incumbent Kathleen Blanco

Possible Republican Candidates:
Bobby Jindal – U.S. Congressman for Louisiana’s 1st congressional district
John Georges – CEO of several large Louisiana based businesses
Walter Boasso – State Senator from Arabi

Governor’s Approval Rating:
39%

Analysis:
Blanco may face a strong challenge from Mitch Landrieu, the current Lieutenant Governor, if he decides to enter the race, which some local pundits expect him to do.  Former Senator John Breaux has been mentioned as another candidate, but has said he would not enter if Blanco runs for re-election, which she has stated she intends to do.  Although she must be considered the favorite among Democrats, a strong challenge from Landrieu would be devastating to her chances as he’ll sifend much needed money from her and potentially cost her an outright victory or, at the least, might allow a Republican into the run-off election.

Bobby Jindal has already announced he will run against Blanco, and from what I can tell, he is already considered the frontrunner in the race.  A poll of 600 people in late October showed Jindal with 52% to Blanco’s 20%.  Landrieu is polling at 9%.  That being said, a lot can happen between Oct 2006 and Oct 2007, but it seems like Blanco has an uphill battle here – a large part of which has to be contributed to the exodus of African-American New Orleans residents leaving the state.  An unpopular Democratic governor in a Republican state is not a good thing.  Throw in that a large part of her base is gone, and it’s hard to see Blanco winning re-election.  One X-factor that’s in her favor is that Jindal is not very battle-tested in that he has won every election by a landslide since taking office.

The other two potential Republicans would not be very significant to the race if they entered.

Note: Louisiana has a run-off election system where if one candidate does not take more than 50% of the vote on Primary Day, another election with the top two finishers is held.

Kentucky

Date of election:
November 6, 2006

Likely Republican Nominee:
Incumbent Ernie Fletcher

Possible Democratic Candidates:
John Y. Brown III – Former Kentucky Secretary of State; son of former Governor of Kentucky John Y. Brown, Jr.
Julian Carroll – Member of the Kentucky State Senate; former Governor of Kentucky, 1974-1979; former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives
Ben Chandler – Representative from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District
Martha Layne Collins – Former Governor of Kentucky, 1983-1987
Brereton Jones – former Governor of Kentucky, 1991-1995
Greg Stumbo – Attorney General of Kentucky
Otis Hensley, Jr – Private contractor

Governor’s Approval Rating:
35%

Analysis:
This is probably the most interesting of the races to watch in 2007, with a whole slew of Democratic heavy-hitters lined up to take on the very corrupt Fletcher.  The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy thus far is Hensley (who received 3% of the vote in the 2003 Democratic primary), but as you can see, there are a lot of big names that are rumored to jump into this race.

On the surface – which is about the only place I’m capable of making judgements from – there doesn’t seem to be the one or two stand-out candidates that would make a formidable challenger like there is in Mississippi and Louisiana.  Chandler seems like he would make a very formidable candidate, and his seat would not be at-risk as it is heavily Democratic.  You probably can’t go wrong with a former governor – which there seems to be a plethora of on the Democratic side – either.  Perhaps some Kentucky Swing Staters can shed some light on this race.  One thing I do know, however, is that Fletcher is not liked and will face an uphill battle no matter who he faces.

(I couldn’t agree more. Smith is one of the few GOPer senators to represent a blue state, and he has got to be a prime target. And if you want a good example of how to defeat a conservative with a faux-moderate record, just take a look at how my man Paul Hodes demolished Charlie Bass. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Oregon has, encouragingly, been trending blue for two decades.  20 years ago, the state had a Republican governor, two Republican senators, and a congressional delegation split 2R-3D.

Since then, we’ve seen 20 years of Democratic governors, a Democratic Senator, no Republican has been elected to state office since an election for Labor Commissioner in 1994, and the Democrats just this month took control of both chambers of the statehouse.  The only Republican congressman left is in the Eastern half of the state, which isn’t going to elect a Democrat anyway.  But why, then, can’t Oregon seem to shake off our last Republican holdout, Senator Gordon Smith?

Gordon Smith was first elected in 1996, and has spent the last ten years portraying himself in the mold of moderate Republicans who can actually get elected statewide here.  Problem: There are no more Republicans like that in Oregon.  Gordon Smith replaced the last of ’em!  (Mark Hatfield)  Since then, the Oregon Republican Party has been increasingly dominated by right wing anti-tax, anti-choice zealots who play well to their primary base, but can’t win statewide.  But I digress.

Smith wants, even needs, to be seen like a moderate, sensible Republican in order to get elected, and every now and then drops a position so the mainstream press in Oregon can wax poetic about their dying breed of moderate Republican.  Holding out on a budget bill because of excessive Medicaid cuts (although he ended up voting for it), adding Gays and Lesbians to the Hate Crimes Statute (although voting for the Federal Marriage Ammendment), Smith is a die hard social conservative with a knack for knowing just how much he needs to feint to the left in order to preserve the moderate image.

My point is this: the electorate in Oregon wants to believe that moderates of both parties can exist.  After the Hatfields and McCalls and even Packwoods of a generation ago, there is a deep seated desire for pragmatic, bipartisan leadership.  Gordon Smith looks like he fits this model, and unless the people of Oregon can be shown that he is like every other social conservative they’ve spent 20 years rejecting, he will continue to be re-elected.  The only way this is going to happen is with a coordinated, effective campaign by the blogosphere and activist class to show who Smith really is and that campaign needs to start today.  Oregon is still a blue state, Gordon Smith is not wildly popular and he can be made to be vulnerable, but his vulnerability will only come about if we make it. 

(As long as they’ve got special run-off elections going on in Texas, I think the SSP is gonna be Karl’s home-away-from-home. – promoted by DavidNYC)

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I’m on a leave of absence, but I couldn’t just stand idly by and not post this gem from Texas.  I’m STILL cracking up!  From the Houston Press:

Having a name like “Shelley Sekula-Gibbs” and deciding to run a write-in campaign is, in a word, genius. It called to mind the immortal jingle sung by The Simpsons’ Schwarzenegger character, Rainier Wolfcastle: “Mein bratwurst has a first name, it’s F-R-I-T-Z. Mein bratwurst has a second name, it’s S-C-H-N-A-C-K-E-N-P-F-E-F-F-E-R-H-A-U-S-E-N.”

[…]

J.R. Perez of the Fort Bend County elections office says voters were pretty inventive in spelling Sekula-Gibbs’s name. Fort Bend is only one of four counties in District 22, but the list of spellings that were accepted as write-in votes (by a bipartisan panel who ruled on voters’ intent) is 28 pages long.

Voters cast their write-in ballots for, among others: Kelly Segula Gibbs, Snelly Gibbr, Schikulla Gibbs, Sheila Gibbs, Shelly Schulla Gibbs, Shelly Gibkula and, by someone who obviously never wanted the joy of using the machine to end, ShelleySkulaGibbsssss.

The name “Sekula” was spelled as Sektula, Sukla, Sequila, Sedoko and Sedoka (by puzzle fans?), Meklua, Sekluda and Shecola.

One voter couldn’t be bothered, just putting in SSG. (It counted.) Another, for some reason, entered Sekula Smith.

Another voter entered “Shelle Sekula Fibbs,” which might have been a hidden political message. Not so hidden, but counted as a vote just the same, was “Shelly DraculaCunt Gibs.” (We like to imagine the bipartisan discussion on that entry: “Well, they misspelled the first and last name, but that’s definitely a Shelley vote.”) [emphasis added]

Since soaring to a special election victory based on votes not marked as “DraculaCunt” or “Snelly Gibbr”, Shelley Hyphenated-Name’s abbreviated term in the House of Represenatives has gotten off to a rocky start, as I’m sure you’re aware: temper tantrums when she didn’t receive a personal visit from the President, driving away her entire congressional staff and demanding their (apparently routine) activities to be investigated, all on top of messianic pledges to solve illegal immigration and other pressing problems in her one-month term.  It all makes you wonder what colorful names the voters of TX-22 might write on their ballots in 2008 if the Gibster gives it another go (please, please, please).

(Hat tip to Wonkette.)

(I just like this diary. – promoted by DavidNYC)

The November approval numbers are out from SurveyUSA. Let’s see how the class of 2008 is faring.

How unpopular is Frank Lautenberg this month? All numbers represent net spproval (approve minus disapprove).

100. DeWine -25%
99. Talent -22%
98. Santorum -21%
97. Burns -15%
96. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) -5%

Picture a huge cliff. Now picture Santorum, Talent, Burns, and Dewine being thrown off of it by angry voters. Lautenberg is hanging on the edge of that cliff, but at least he’s a long way from those other four guys… so far. And the vibe of the ’06 election seems to be helping – he’s climbed 7 points since last month. It’s a good start, Frank, but you’re going to have to build it up from there.

95. Mel Martinez -3%

OK, I feel better now. Kudos to the brilliance of the GOP for making their least popular senator the face of their party. Wow.

94. Bunning -3%
93. Kyl -2%

OK, you can get re-elected at -2%. There hope for you, Frank.

92. John Kerry (D-MA) -2%

Presidential bid’s not looking good, John. At this rate, you might not even win the presidential primary in your own state. The infamous gaffe, repeated ad naseum by the media just like the Dean Scream, drops Kerry a whopping 16%. Ouch. No matter what happens, his seat will stay in Democratic hands, though. It’s Massachusetts.

91. Dayton -1%
90. Menendez 0%

Some more hope for Frank – a little proof that New Jerseys are willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat they don’t much like. While Dewine and Talent nosedived 8% and 17% respectively this month, Menendez soars 13% and gets re-elected.

89. Wayne Allard (R-CO) 1%

Allard gains 5% this month despite the national trends.

88. Burr 2%
87. Sarbanes 2%
86. John Sununu (R-NH) 3%

Sununu dives 8% from last month. The mood in NH has gotten quite frosty to the GOP.

85. Frist 3%
84. John Cornyn (R-TX) 3%

Cornyn gains 6% this month. Still makes a good target.

83. Allen 4%
82. Voinovich 4%
81. Norm Coleman (R-MN) 5%

Coleman stays the same as he was last month, which is 3% better than recently re-elected governor Pawlenty. But remember, there’s nobody out campaigning against him yet, so this is still a good position for us to start from.

80. James Inhofe (R-OK) 5%
79. Chafee 6%

Inhofe gains 14% this month, but he’s not out of the woods yet as Chafee’s ranking shows. Chafee gains 5% himself, possibly for his post-election declaration that he wasn’t sure if he was a Republican anymore.

To be updated tomorrow. Wow, I got front-paged! I better finish this now…

78. Bond 8%
77. Reid 9%
76. Lieberman 9%
75. Gregg 11%
74. Specter 11%
73. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) 12%
72. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) 12%

Lieberman gains 4% and is re-elected, so we probably want to see our targets move below 9% net approval. Landrieu is our lowest-rated red-stater, so it’s good to see her above the Chafee line; with all the positive Dem mojo, however, her gain of merely 2% this month is underwhelming. A rough campaign could easily bring her down into the danger zone, so Schumer will need to invest here. Dole is our next target, and you can see we’ll need a good challenger (or some Macaca-like gaffes, or retirement) to bring her down in reddish NC. Momentum is on our side at the moment – she falls 8% from last month, and is down from a high of +30% in July.

71. Coburn 12%
70. Murkowski 13%
69. Tom Harkin (D-IA) 13%
68. Richard Durbin (D-IL) 15%

A presidential election year in Iowa – expect Harkin to get a strong challenger who declares early, because every GOP wannabe-prez will be helping him raise money. Harkin gains 6% this month – that’s a good thing. Durbin’s pretty safe in blue Illinois but gains only 1% this month as Dems fail to pick off Mark Kirk or Hyde’s open seat in the House.

67. DeMint 15%
66. Pat Roberts (R-KS) 15%
65. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 15%

Roberts and McConnell are basically in pre-Macaca George Allen territory. In order to pick them off, we’d need two out of three factors: A strong candidate (Sebelius, Chandler), a memorable gaffe or scandal, and/or retirement. Before we get too optimistic, remember that the Tennesee race had all these three factors (Frist retires and is clouded by scandal, Corker had the 911 call fiasco and his abortion flip-flop, and Ford, a sitting congressman, ran a very strong campaign) and we still lost. Roberts gains 10% this month (ouch) and McConnell gains 3.

64. Isakson 15%
63. Brownback 16%
62. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) 16%
61. Gordon Smith (R-OR) 17%
60. Russ Feingold 17%
59. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 17%

Beating Chambliss would feel pretty damn good, and his numbers aren’t unreachable. On the downside, he gained 9% this month – we need momentum going the other direction. Smith gains 5%, another trend we need to reverse – Oregon ain’t as blue as Rhode Island. Alexander gains 13%, probably on the vibes of the GOP noise machine that pushed a turd like Corker into Frist’s open seat. When you consider how much lower Frist’s numbers are, this does not look like a first or even second tier opportunity.

58. Akaka 17%
57. Murray 18%
56. Lincoln 18%
55. Carl Levin (D-MI) 18%
54. Mark Pryor (D-AR) 19%

Stabenow’s re-election brings positive vibes in Michigan, as Levin gains 12%. This seat’s safe unless he retires. Too bad Beebe doesn’t seem to have done the same for Pryor, who actually drops 6% this month. He’s still in pretty safe territory for Arkansas, however, which is looking reddish in presidential elections but bluish for everything else.

53. Boxer 20%
52. Bill Nelson 20%
51. Stabenow 20%
50. Dodd 20%
49. Salazar 21%
48. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 22%

Graham gains 12% this month. Unless the Club For Growth or some ultrareligious 3rd party candidate intervenes in the primary, this seat stays red.

OK, I’ll finish the rest when I get home tonight. Thanks for front-paging me, David!Stupid internet connection problems. Here goes.

47. Ensign 22%
46. Mikulski 23%
45. Hutchinson 24%
44. Feinstein 25%
43. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) 25%
42. Thune 25%
41. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 25%

Hagel drops 4%, but it doesn’t matter. He’s sharp, polished, willing to be a maverick, politically savvy, and besides which, he owns the voting machines. And it’s Nebraska. All we can do is hope he runs for president and vacates his seat. Sessions gains 7% this month. If you decide to run, Artur, good luck – you’ll need it.

40. Bennett 25%
39. Wyden 26%
38. Schumer 27%
37. McCain 27%

08′ hopeful McCain loses 2%, victorious DSCC chair Schumer gains 11%. Nice.

36. Cantwell 28%
35. Ted Stevens (R-AK) 28%
34. Larry Craig (R-ID) 29%

Incidentally, Cantwell jumped 23% in the past month. Now that’s a damn fine endgame. Stevens drops 3%, but his approval ratings aren’t like a truck you can dump on – it’s a series of tubes! No, it’s a series of numbers that never dip below 26%. Just retire, you old bastard! Stop teasing and do it – spend some time with your family before you hop on the metaphorical Bridge to Nowhere. Craig drops 6%, but seriously… Idaho. If we can’t defeat a guy like Bill Sali… Craig’d have to dropkick Santa Claus to lose this race.

33. Shelby – 29%
32. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) – 29%
31. Joe Biden (D-DE) – 29%

Not even Shelley Moore Capito could beat Rockefeller without a good scandal, even though he drops 6% this month. No one will mount a credible campaign against Joe Biden – in Delaware, the only thing safer than a popular incumbent is a popular incumbent Democrat. He gains 10% this month on his son’s coattails, or maybe vice versa. Of course, there’s that whole presidential run to think about…

30. Hatch 30%
29. Kennedy 31%
28. Bayh 31%
27. John Warner (R-VA) 32%

OK, seriously, when’s the last time a very popular senator was beaten by a very popular governor? Why is everyone so excited about the prospect of Mark Warner running here? George Allen lost because he’s a dickhead, always has been, always will be. John Warner’s not going to make those kind of mistakes. He gains 1% this month, but seriously, whatever. Maybe he’ll retire, but I heard he won’t.

26. Crapo 32%
25. Jeffords 34%
24. Thad Cochran (R-MS) 36%

Cochran gains 3%, and hasn’t said anything about retiring yet. No sense in thinking about this now when Barbour will be up for re-election in ’07.

All right, I need to get to bed. I’ll finish tomorrow – dumb internet problems prevented me from finishing tonight. Let’s do this.

23. Vitter 38%
22. Grassley 38%
21. Kohl 39%
20. Mike Enzi (R-WY) 39%
19. Jack Reed (D-RI) 39%

Nothing to see here. Move along. Kohl shows us what happens to Senators with approval this high – they get re-elected without any trouble. Enzi gains 12%, Reed gains 1% (and pretty much never dips below 35%).

18. Lott 39%
17. Byrd 40%
16. Lugar 41%
15. Inouye 42%
14. Ben Nelson 42%
13. Carper 43%
12. Thomas 43%
11. Pete Domenici (R-NM) 43%
10. Tim Johnson (D-SD) 44%

Domenici gains 12% – if he runs, he wins, and he says he’s gonna run. Maybe he wants to be Senate President Pro Tem someday, if Stevens retires and the Democrats lose the Senate. Johnson gains 2% – why would anyone want to even try to seriously challenge this guy? I expect top tier challengers to stay away for now. Johnson’s numbers are stellar and stable.

9. Bingaman 44%
8. Leahy 46%
7. Obama 48%
6. Max Baucus (D-MT) – 49%

Believe it or not, Baucus might not be as safe as these numbers suggest. He gains a whopping 18% on the strength of Montana’s blue wave. Before that though, his numbers were more “great” than “incredible”. If support for Tester, Schweitzer, and the Democrats remains high, Baucus is safe. If our party takes a fall in Montana, however, Denny Rehberg or Marc Racicot might – *might* – make a race of this.

5. Clinton 50%
4. Susan Collins (R-ME) 50%
3. Conrad 54%
2. Dorgan 56%
1. Snowe 62%

Hilary gains 14% – NY luuurrrrvvves her now. That’s a lot of electoral votes in her pocket. Maybe we shouldn’t be working so hard to dis her, seeing as how in less than 2 years we’ll probably be trying to get her elected in the general. I’m not saying we should all support her right now or anything, just that we should stop acting like she’s the boogeyman that the right wants her to be.

So, Susan Collins… Look. Lincoln Chafee’s BEST number this season was 19% net approval. Susan Collins’ WORST number was 41% net approval. Tom Allen has a better chance of being struck by lightning than unseating Collins head-to-head. Here’s hoping she honors her term limit pledge or switches parties. She gains 2% this month.

OK, done at last. But expect a version with color-coded maps soon.

Below is a chart which lists all the incoming freshmen in the 110th Congress. They are listed in order from the most Republican to the most Democratic district, according to PVI.

State	CD	Member	Party	PVI	Switch	Status
NE	3	Smith	(R)	R+23.6		Open
ID	1	Sali	(R)	R+18.9		Open
CA	22	McCarthy	(R)	R+16.0		Open
CO	5	Lamborn	(R)	R+15.7		Open
TX	22	Lampson	(D)	R+14.5	R » D	Open
TN	1	Davis	(R)	R+13.9		Open
OH	4	Jordan	(R)	R+13.6		Open
OK	5	Fallin	(R)	R+11.9		Open
IN	8	Ellsworth	(D)	R+8.5	R » D
NV	2	Heller	(R)	R+8.2		Open
PA	10	Carney	(D)	R+8.0	R » D
KS	2	Boyda	(D)	R+7.3	R » D
IN	9	Hill	(D)	R+7.1	R » D
NC	11	Shuler	(D)	R+7.1	R » D
OH	18	Space	(D)	R+6.1	R » D	Open
MN	6	Bachmann	(R)	R+5.1		Open
FL	9	Bilirakis	(R)	R+4.3		Open
IN	2	Donnelly	(D)	R+4.3	R » D
FL	13	Buchanan	(R)	R+4.1		Open
AZ	5	Mitchell	(D)	R+3.7	R » D
WI	8	Kagen	(D)	R+3.7	R » D	Open
CA	11	McNerney	(D)	R+3.0	R » D
IL	6	Roskam	(R)	R+2.9		Open
PA	4	Altmire	(D)	R+2.6	R » D
MI	7	Walberg	(R)	R+2.5		Open*
NY	20	Gillibrand	(D)	R+2.5	R » D
FL	16	Mahoney	(D)	R+2.4	R » D	Open
NY	19	Hall	(D)	R+1.5	R » D
AZ	8	Giffords	(D)	R+1.4	R » D	Open
MN	1	Walz	(D)	R+0.9	R » D
NY	24	Arcuri	(D)	R+0.6	R » D	Open
NH	1	Shea-Porter	(D)	R+0.1	R » D
OH	6	Wilson	(D)	D+0.4		Open
CO	7	Perlmutter	(D)	D+2.3	R » D	Open
KY	3	Yarmuth	(D)	D+2.4	R » D
NH	2	Hodes	(D)	D+2.7	R » D
PA	8	Murphy	(D)	D+3.4	R » D
PA	7	Sestak	(D)	D+3.6	R » D
CT	5	Murphy	(D)	D+3.7	R » D
FL	22	Klein	(D)	D+3.7	R » D
IL	17	Hare	(D)	D+4.6		Open
IA	1	Braley	(D)	D+4.8	R » D
OH	13	Sutton	(D)	D+6.4		Open
IA	2	Loebsack	(D)	D+6.9	R » D
MD	3	Sarbanes	(D)	D+7.1		Open
CT	2	Courtney	(D)	D+7.6	R » D
VT	AL	Welch	(D)	D+9.1	I » D	Open
HI	2	Hirono	(D)	D+9.7		Open
FL	11	Castor	(D)	D+11.0		Open
TN	9	Cohen	(D)	D+18.1		Open
MN	5	Ellison	(D)	D+21.5		Open
GA	4	Johnson	(D)	D+22.0		Open*
NJ	13	Sires	(D)	D+22.9		Open
NY	11	Clarke	(D)	D+39.9		Open

Asterisk = defeated incumbent in primary.

Let me say I’m glad to be on the swing state project. My name is Lavell Wootie Garrett, but you may call me Wootie or Wootie-Woo. I am looking forword to do what I can to defeat Bush,but aslo add my own ideas to. think you

I’ve been trying to launch the Southern Democrats Club, which, while sounding tacky, is a great idea. My idea is to hook the south together, and my dream is to get 100,000 democrats on our mailing list.

The idea is to provide organization for Southern Democrats. Get money for Southern Candidates and State Parties. Have a network across the south and use that to provide institutional support in State House and State Senate Races etc. Not to mention state parties.

We have a website; http://southerndemoc…

Albeit one that’s a little jumbled and jsut thrown together by yours truly. We’re working on another one, well, Keith is, and he actually knows what he’s doing.

Here’s the actual DFA site; http://dfalink.com/g…

Most here should know that the DFA is easy as sin to join, you just put in an email address, state your name, and put in a password. They send you a confirmation email, you click that link, and bang, you’re done.

My point in posting this is to try and get on the blogroll, just to give it some more publicity and maybe help boost the membership.

I just wanted to wish each and every one of you a happy Thanksgiving. I have much to be thankful for, and I hope all of you do as well.

The Swing State Project will be taking something of a break this holiday weekend, so feel free to use this as an open thread. And of course, there’s always the diaries as well. Have a great Turkey Day!