AR, IA, IN, and MD: Population by CD for Four More States

Four more states were released this week; again, we pick out the population by CD to see the relative standings of each district.

District Population Deviation
AR-01 687,694 (41,286)
AR-02 751,377 22,398
AR-03 822,564 93,585
AR-04 654,283 (74,697)
Total: 2,915,918

District Population Deviation
IA-01 596,443 (165,146)
IA-02 620,856 (140,733)
IA-03 642,116 (119,473)
IA-04 609,487 (152,102)
IA-05 577,453 (184,136)
Total: 3,046,355

District Population Deviation
IN-01 705,600 (14,822)
IN-02 679,254 (41,168)
IN-03 723,633 3,211
IN-04 789,835 69,413
IN-05 809,107 88,685
IN-06 676,548 (43,874)
IN-07 676,351 (44,071)
IN-08 694,398 (26,024)
IN-09 729,076 8,654
Total: 6,483,802

District Population Deviation
MD-01 744,275 22,581
MD-02 700,893 (20,801)
MD-03 719,856 (1,838)
MD-04 714,316 (7,378)
MD-05 767,369 45,675
MD-06 738,943 17,249
MD-07 659,776 (61,918)
MD-08 728,124 6,430
Total: 5,773,552

77 thoughts on “AR, IA, IN, and MD: Population by CD for Four More States”

  1. They should really just draw one Dem-leaning district across eastern Arkansas. They won’t do that, but they should.

  2. in these four states.  They are in line with 2009 estimates on a county/CD level.

    AR saw the shift towards the NW and that trend has been clear since the early 1970s.  WalMart is in the NW plus the University of Arkansas has also be a magnet for growth.  

    Iowa continued to see a pattern of growth that was stronger in its midsized cities plus Des Moines.  Yes you see some growth in collge towns.  These long term patterns for Iowa and yes the growth is bit more in Eastern Iowa.

    Indiana you see more growth in the middle of the state as opposed to North & South plus slower growth in most rural areas.  Surburban growth is stronger then urban growth. Nothing new there.

    In Maryland you see less growth in Baltimore area then DC area with the outer exurbs growing the faster. Same old same old.

    Indiana and Maryland both had significant growth in hispanic populations as had all the other states.

  3. will be interesting. I posted 2010 population totals for all 99 counties here, as well as a map showing population gain or loss by county. The Republican stronghold areas in rural Iowa are emptying out, especially in western Iowa, the most conservative part of the state. I hope this means some GOP incumbents will be pitted against each other.

    The good news for Iowa Democrats is that the population gains are mostly in counties that lean Democratic in central and eastern Iowa. BUT the bad news is that within those counties, it’s suburban/exurban areas that are gaining the most population. For instance, Iowa’s population grew by about 4 percent over the decade. Polk County (Des Moines and most suburbs) grew by about 15 percent. But the city of Des Moines itself only grew by 2.4 percent. The big growth was in suburbs.

    Cedar Rapids (Linn County) grew, but not as fast as some Cedar Rapids suburbs like Marion.

    Similarly, the biggest growth in Johnson County was not in Iowa City but in in suburban towns like North Liberty and Coralville. Those areas are a bit more Democratic than Des Moines or Cedar Rapids suburbs.

    There should be a huge number of competitive state legislative races in 2012. I could see Democrats picking up a seat or two thanks to redistricting, but I could also see Republicans gaining enough in new suburban-dominated districts to make up for their losses in rural areas.  

  4. Bleeding Heartland user ghbraves checked the numbers for a map he created in 2009 (labeled “G” in this diary) and found that if he moved one small SE Iowa county (Keokuk) from the blue to the green district, his four districts would be within the allowable deviation rate for population (that is, the largest district has less than 101% of the smallest district’s population).

    Map “K” from the same diary is too far off in terms of population. Haven’t checked map “N” yet, or the map Swing State user abgin generated late last year.

  5. I used the Census data just released …


    blue – 762,255

    green – 761,010

    purple – 760,876

    red – 762,214

    ideal pop. is 761,589

    haven’t run the partisan data yet …

  6. Here’s the best I’ve been able to do for Iowa so far in terms of minimizing population variance. The largest district (IA-2) is 100.03% of the smallest district (IA-1).

    This comes at a bit of a reduction in compactness. I tried to make the districts not look like a total mess but there was only so much I could do while keeping the districts as equal in population as I found possible.

    IA Redistricting Plan

    IA-1 (Blue) 761,512: Obama 57.5%, McCain 41.3%

    IA-2 (Green) 761,748: Obama 57.7%, McCain 41.0%

    IA-3 (Purple) 761,555: Obama 53.4%, McCain 45.3%

    IA-4 (Red) 761,540: Obama 47.9%, McCain 51.0%

  7. Walmart is headquartered in Bentonville, in the northwest corner of the state.  Their continued expansion is responsible for the growth in that area.

  8. Russelville, Fayetteville, Fort Smith, one of the most scenic and beautiful parts of the state. Also one of the most affluent white-non Latino Republican parts of the state. It gave us the brothers Huthinson. The bad news is it will be shedding off Republicans to neighboring under populated districts.

  9. also has the U of Arkansas in Fayatteville which has attracted a lot of growth–including retirees.  NW Arkansas has lot of attractions for retirees including the weather in fall, summer and spring.

    The Delta parts of AR4 & AR1 lost population.  The likely scenerio in my opinion is Mike Ross will got delta democratic area from AR1.  Then AR1 will get GOP area from AR3.  The likely scenerio is a safer seat for Ross & Crawford.  AR2 will remain roughly the same.

  10. all of those areas are trending away from the Democrats? Maybe I am confusing this with something else, but I think I remember someone saying that the congressional districts should be competitive in a non-awful year.  

  11. What are the benefits to drawing a single Dem-leaning district there as opposed to one that incorporates more of the Little Rock area?

  12. in 2001 was a nifty one.  It divided the democratic Delta areas between two seats to maximize chances of party wins in those two seats.  

    The second part of that little dance was the division of the suburbs of Little Rock.  Lonoke county, heavily republican & fast growing, was placed in AR1 while more moderate rural counties in the west was attached to AR2.

    This plan probably should have held for 10 years but an odd set of events occurred.  There were two retirements in one year and it was the worst year for democrats in AR since 1980.  Then the democrats nominated an AA for congress in AR2.  

    I tend to agree that the democrats would be better off planning on a 2-2 setup.  Do Ross’s seat and a Pulaski to Delta move.  I think because of regional factors that is highly unlikely.  That’s the best course for “national democratic interests” but lets be clear most elected arkansas democrats are not national democrats.  In fact national democratic policies are a severe drag on the party in AR. So I think state democrats changing district lines to advance policies in DC that they disagree with is unlikely.  

  13. Because Eastern Arkansas is the Delta, and is more heavily African American than the rest of the state.  Drawing a district around Little Rock could be dangerous in that like just about everywhere else in this country, the suburbs are faster growing than the city, and in most of the South, the suburbs are still pretty heavily Republican.

  14. between the Republican strength in suburbs and exurbs in Iowa than in other states, or is it basically the same, where they tend to do well or very well?

    Also, aren’t some of these figures skewed by a small base? I don’t mean to sound hostile, but a lot of these incredible figures are a lot less intimidating if we put some absolute numbers to them.  

  15. in other states, so I don’t can’t answer your question.

    I get your point about a small base–the fastest-growing Iowa county (Dallas) grew by 62 percent, but the absolute numbers aren’t that big. Still could be good for an extra state House seat for Republicans, though. On the other hand, depending on the new map, a new seat contained totally in Dallas County could make the House seat in Boone County a better Democratic pickup opportunity. One of the Iowa House seats Democrats lost by a tiny margin (about two dozen votes out of more than 10,000 votes cast) is mostly in Boone County but also contains a bit of northern Dallas County.

  16. the historically-Democratic parts of the state (eastern and southern Arkansas) are shrinking in population, while the historically-Republican parts of the state (northwestern Arkansas, aka Walmartistan, and the counties surrounding Little Rock) are growing.

  17. the Application for “new pop est” was not far off !

    blue – 6,851 under actual

    green – 1,862 over actual

    purple – 2,125 over actual

    red – 2,863 over actual

    a lot of pop decline in western Iowa/rural areas:


  18. it appears neighboring Dickinson and Clay Counties have the exact same population – 16,667 each !

  19. District 1: 55.3% Obama, 44.7% McCain

    District 2: 58.8% Obama, 41.2% McCain

    District 3: 58.9% Obama, 41.1% McCain

    District 4: 46.3% Obama, 43.7% McCain

    Nice job packing all the Republicans into one district

  20. on this map.  I think the democrats might veto it.

    The Boswell-Latham combo is about as good as it could get for the GOP.  If you have a Latham-Boswell combination.

    Since Linn& Johnson county stay together whatever is added to CD1 is the most republican area you could add.  Since you keep the current Linn county lines to the River contact CD1 does not gain any democratic area from CD2.

    No one will be happy in Iowa but your map above might cause stomach ache for the democrats. Latham could win that seat plus CD1 is actually quite a bit more rural now.  

  21. at Bleeding Heartland? I would put it on the front page. The community there liked discussing abgin’s map a month or so ago.

    That map looks compact and balanced in terms of population, but Republicans would scream bloody murder. Back in 2001 the current IA-05 was controversial (some didn’t like a huge western district including almost half of the state’s counties–looks like an attempt to pack Republicans into one district).

  22. anything that we can work with, or is it simply the same sort of population that’s there now but bigger?  

  23. So the new IA-03 is winnable for Boswell or Vilsack.  The only question is whether these maps put Latham’s home in King’s lot.

  24. on the pop. deviations !, if the law requires lowest deviation possible, this map may take the cake …

  25. to cross-post this map to Bleeding Heartland (runs on the same software as SSP, only takes a minute to set up an account). Redistricting diaries are popular there–I would bump this up to the front page.

    Latham against Braley would be an interesting race.

  26. the commission cound implement.

    I’d hope though that there is a way to pack the counties in the northeastern part in on of the democratic districts and instead give the ones in the southwest to your IA-04 district.

    Although rural those counties in the northeast are reliably democratic and the central northern counties are democratic as well.

  27. It can be said that the new IA-03 is very winnable for Dems, especially if Latham’s home is drawn in with King.

  28. It is 53.7% McCain for district 4. Typo. The other numbers are correct. And  yes, the votes in district 2 and 3 were that close to eachother.

  29. colors I have on the map ???  I didn’t number my districts so not 100% sure which one is which (I figure 4 is red, as that’s the western GOP area) … is 1 NE, 2 SE, 3 Des Moines ? or 1 Des M. 2 SE, 3 NE (I think it’s the latter as you go down my color chart and the partisan numbers look right that way) …

    granted, I know east IA is more Dem & west is more GOP, but did not consider partisanship when drawing … started in Des Moines and drew district around it, then SE, NE and west IA … goal was to get each dist within 1,000 of ideal dist size …. i like that it came out the way it did though …we’ll see what the final map looks like — there can obviously be different combinations — does anyone know if the law says the combination w/ the lowest deviation(s) “wins” ??

  30. The current districts are R+9, D+5, D+7, D+1 and EVEN.

    The proposed districts are R+11, D+6, D+6, D+2. To me, that seems like a much better combination than they have now.

  31. He used to live in Alexander. Ames is in the county smack dab in the middle of the state, so it would be IA-01 on this map. Alexander is in the central part of the north and would be in IA-04 (King’s district).

  32. There’s no way to draw a non-gerrymandered (as Iowa’s non-partisan commission redistricting always is) Polk County-based district that isn’t very competitive for Democrats.  Never a slam dunk, but always competitive.  And it will be more competitive than Latham’s district now, which already is perfectly purple.

    I’m increasingly confident we can come out of 2012 with 3 of 4 House seats, knocking out Latham.  Any map is going to put Latham in a bunch of counties he’s never represented before, and of course against Boswell he will have an acute disadvantage in Polk which will have a majority of voters in its district.

    About the only way Latham can have better than 50-50 odds of surviving is if redistricting puts Polk in with a bunch of counties north and west that Latham already represents.  And of course that’s doable, but the GOP has to be nervous with nonpartisan redistricting holding most of the cards.

  33. The newer and higher-income the suburban area, the more Republican it tends to vote. I live in an older (1940s-1960s) suburb that is more balanced politically, but the population growth has been in what I like to call sprawlville or “taupe town.” It looks pretty much the same as new suburban housing developments anywhere in the country.

  34. Link:

    Code section 42.4(1) requires that a congressional redistricting plan contain districts which have a population as nearly equal as practicable to the ideal population for a congressional district in the plan. Specifically, the Code provides that the deviation percentage variance for any congressional district in a redistricting plan shall not exceed 1 percent unless necessary to comply with constitutional requirements as

    provided in Article III, section 37, of the Iowa Constitution.36 Article III, section 37, of the Iowa Constitution provides that counties shall not be split between more than one congressional district and that a congressional district containing more than one county shall not be entirely separated by a county belonging to a different congressional district. Important to note, however, is that the Code provides that if a redistricting plan is challenged in court based upon an excessive population variance among districts, the General Assembly has the burden of justifying any deviation percentage variance in excess of 1 percent for any district in the plan.37

  35. vastly understate the competitive nature of these districts.  Individual candidates, regional factors and ticket splitting are what are key in Iowa congressional elections.  You can toss out those plus and minus numbers in Iowa.  In 2004 Bush barely won Iowa as 4 GOP congressional easily won while one democrat struggled.

    This redistricting map puts Tom Latham who always runs ahead of GOP numbers in the same seat with Boswell who runs behind his numbers.  If you had to pick out counties near DesMoines to favor Latham and the GOP these would be it.

    In CD1 instead going south into democratic territory this map sends him westward.  Braley lost most of his rural counties as his mid sized cities won the day for him.  Guess what under this map he gets 9 more rural counties- and several of these counties are heavily GOP.  Can you say Yuck!!

  36. for Democrats. The worst kind of IA-03 for Democrats would include Polk County and a bunch of counties to the south and west of it, but NOT the bunch of counties to the north and east of it. That would look a lot like the 1990s map of IA-04, which is a big reason 36-year incumbent Neal Smith lost in 1994. His new district stretched from Polk County all the way to the western border (Pottawattamie County) and south, forming a kind of triangle, but he didn’t have Democratic-leaning Story or Jasper counties anymore.

    That’s a district Latham would crush in. I’d be very satisfied with the map silver spring has drawn.

  37. I don’t know that the sprawl around Council Bluffs or the Quad Cities would really qualify as “exurbs.”

  38. during discussions of a proposed 2002 map that there was speculation about whether Latham would re-register at his lake cottage in order to run in a certain district.

  39. (have an account from a while back) … but keep getting message re. a “disallowed HTML tag” (something to do w/ the map I think, I tried to post several diff. ways/links but to no avail; not a tech. expert here) … you’re welcome to post the map yourself if feasible ?  thanks.

  40. covered only my point which related to Boswell. Let me repeat my thouhgts.

    1. This map has about the best arrangement of counties around Polk if you are setting up a match between Boswell & Latham.    Is it that worst arrangment for Boswell?  No I did not say that.  Yes it would be worse for Boswell to drop South to MO border.  Yet this arrangement does not  move due eastward and that would be a winner Boswell.  This arrangement includes Dallas & Marion county which are GOP strongeholds. So its not the worst case scenerio for Boswell, did not say that, but very far being best case scenerio.

    2. You made no mention of all of Braley’s seat.  Braley seat’s which is balanced between urban and rural interest picks up  9 or 10 rural counties.  Braley lost all but one rural county in his district.  Instead of dropping South to Linn county he picks up a lot unfriendly territory.  How can that be good for a 49% winner in 2010.


  41. There is no standard definition for “exurb” either. I would define it as a rapidly growing area on the outskirts of a large metropolitan area, often 40-70 miles from the urban core, such as the areas around Fort Collins, CO, Frederick, MD, or Forsyth County, GA.

    I know Iowa fairly well, and I don’t think anything there qualifies.

  42. I go to my point #2. The rural counties added in CD1 are more republican then the current composition of CD1.

    I guess I should also add that McCain faltered badly in the corn counties in 2008.  McCain had the odd idea that Ethanol should receive a government handout-ironically many environmental groups have reached that same conclusion.

    The decline in Corn prices in 2010 was one reason Braley nearly lost.  

    I still think the map above could endanger both Boswell and Braley.  

  43. The politics of quite a few states are dominated by their natural resources.  The industry has the politicians in their backpockets because they know that they are the be all and end all for the state’s economy.  IA, NE, and several others have ethanol.  Texas and LA has oil and gas.  AZ has Uranium.  WV, KY, TN, VA, NC have coal.  NV has precious minerals and lithium.

  44. for the numbers I’m refering to.

    Your point seems to be going to four districts endangers two Democrats.  At the same time, there is no way Republicans would like how the 4th is as red as it is.

    Iowa went for Obama by ten points.  This map has three with numbers greater than that, +17, +17 and +11.  While it may not be perfect, that is a homerun as far as redistricting from 5 districts to 4, and a current 3/2 split.

    If you have a plausible map that offers a better split, go ahead and make one.  Otherwise you are just making the argument that a Republican could win a +11 Obama district, but so what, I’d sure rather be gener D than generic R in such a case.  

    Obviously a gerrymander could do better, but we can’t consider gerymandered maps here.

  45. Just for the record, North Carolina has zero coal production of consequence and it’s certainly not any part of NC politics. I don’t believe there’s been any coal mining in NC since the 1950s or something like that.

  46. North Carolina is believed to have substantial coal deposits, but they’re too deep and fractured to be viable for mining. What could be readily extracted was pretty much gone decades ago.

  47. suburb of a suburb. The further encroachment of development into rural areas under the protective guise of bigger lot sizes often an acre or two and bigger houses (McMansions)

  48. But for voter targeting purposes the normal explanation of an “exurb” is an are surrounding a metropolitan area where the majority of works do NOT commute to the metro area, but instead to businesses in their area or in the suburb themselves. They are also normally self contained economies where the service industry workers also live in that community – thus an exurb will generally be very affluent, but also fairly diverse in populations and income levels.

  49. I love that answer! It is so true and these lines are so straight and uniform nobody can say with a straight face that this looks like a gerrymandered map!

  50. its not the numbers that hurt.  Its fairly certain  that the western seat for Iowa will be a GOP strongehold.  Western Iowa is mostly rural and is the heart of the GOP strength.  That was the hallmark of the 2001 map and yes because western Iowa was not split two ways the map did favor the democrats.  There has been population decline in the west, relative to the rest of the state, so a western Iowa seat is almost a given.  Its the rest of the state that is a concern.

    I would suggest that you look the map Goobergrudge presented down below on another post.  That map would be an absolute disaster for the GOP.

    1. CD1 picks up Latham’s home in Story county.  CD1 because of that keeps its rural and medium city blend and avoids picking up a ton of rural counties.

    2. Boswell picks up some GOP counties but avoids getting latham unless he moves again. In addition the map from Goobergrudge has Boswell keeping or picking 5 or 6 counties that Obama carried in 2008.  So its a disaster for Boswell.

    In Map above, as I noted, Boswell gets Latham’s home county plus several other strong GOP counties.  In addition Braley gets 10 rural counties that include several strong GOP ones.  

    Boswell skated by due to  a super weak foe and he would get unfriendly territory and a proven incumbent vote getter.  In Braley’s case he gets 10 rural counties, he only carry one rural county in 2010, and does not get any strong D areas.  So there you have.  The map shown below would be a D homerun in my opinion, while the Map above is not as favorable.

  51. Of course gerrymandered maps can make it better, but that isn’t relevant.  It isn’t going to happen.

    The reality is essentially that one GOP district has to be split in four parts.  The primary goal is getting the highest percentage of Republican voters as possible included in the 25% that goes into King’s district.  After that, the three Dem districts have to each absorb 25% of the burden of that eliminated GOP district.

    Bottom line, we should expect all three Dem districts to get less blue.  The above map is very logical, possible, and is far more more unfavorable to the GOP than to Dems.  Are there better maps possible, of course, but the below map with its extremely odd shapes has almost no chance of passing.

  52. There are some reasons for optimism.  For instance, the Latino population is growing in leaps and bounds and will soon become a force in the state politics.  I’ve got several activist friends who are working on organizing them and for the first time we’ve seen Hispanic interest groups making the rounds in the legislature to combat the tea party anti-immigrant stuff.  The black population here also showed some positive trends.

    Personally, I don’t think Dems are doomed in this state, though I think we’ll have to change what we’ve been doing.  In some ways it’s a good thing-we’ve really had a one party state here and that kind of environment breeds complacency.  It’s also giving folks like me who have been ranting and raving about needing new strategies and approaches a chance to get a word in to the discussion finally.

  53. Yes, essentially one Republican district needs to be split into fourths. However, the Republican district in question went 52% for Obama, and has a PVI of EVEN. You make the other Republican district MORE Republican, and that lives with with the remains that have a D+ PVI. Splitting that up among 3 Democratic districts isn’t a bad thing. As I said above, the new PVIs in question will be better than the current ones, but a noticeable margin.

  54. If nothing else, the fact that we are willing to be more flexible with our candidates gives me hope for the long-term in pretty much every state. I’m almost certainly more liberal than most Democrats in the state, but I know that the only way most Democrats will be elected is to be more conservative than me.

    I like your thoughts on new strategies to winning. It’s definitely harder to try something new and probably riskier in a state like Ohio where races can be very close even in bad years, but in a state like Louisiana or Arkansas, where we’ve been having a rougher time, why not try something different? There’s no reason not to experiment. The trial and error isn’t going to be nearly as costly.  

  55. Running right didn’t help Chad Causey or Blanche Lincoln.  Hell, Chad Causey’s campaign to be a Republican gave a Green in the 1st district nearly a full 5% of the vote…Had Mike Ross’s opponent been someone more serious than a woman who midway through the campaign started dressing like Sarah Palin and releasing songs she had written, he probably would have lost too.  At a recent state party meeting, there was data floated that showed Democrats didn’t turn out this year in as high of numbers as they usually do.  In fact, our Lt. Gov and SoS candidates, both rather progressive by Arkansas standards, were winning by 2 points until they got to the third district which reversed the totals.  There was real disgust here with our Democratic nominees within the party faithful, and Blanche Lincoln was poison to the whole ticket.  I’m not sure running right will help us anymore, here or much anywhere in the country.

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