I am now on Episode 10 of my redistricting series, if you can believe it! Tonight we cover Colorado and Minnesota. I drew two maps for Minnesota — one if the Republicans hold Tim Pawlenty’s governorship in 2010, and the other if Democrats manage a gerrymandering monopoly. (The Dems have solid state legislative majorities, so that element seems set in stone.)
Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon
Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky
Jump below, if and only if you dare!
Colorado
The process here is fairly straightforward. Whether Democrats hold their current monopoly in 2010 or lose the governor’s mansion (the state legislature seems locked-in), incumbent protection will be the name of the game, aimed especially at solidifying Democratic Reps. Betsy Markey and John Salazar (most pointedly the former). Democrats would be foolish to try for a 6-1 majority and no one seems to think they’ll try it.
My map definitely solidified Markey without hurting DeGette, Polis, or Perlmutter, but it didn’t go as far as I hoped in protecting Salazar (my 3rd remains quite rural and is more of a swing district, but far from strongly Dem-leaning). Given the need to dole out favorable Denver suburbs to Polis, Perlmutter, and Markey, there’s little Denver-area turf left to give Salazar. What to do?
District 1 – Diana DeGette (D-Denver) — all of Denver and 19% of Arapahoe preserves a solidly liberal district.
District 2 – Jared Polis (D-Boulder) — it may look rural and Rocky-heavy on the map, but the population anchors are Boulder County, which is kept whole, and Adams County, of which 35% is included. Less strongly Dem than before, but still plenty safe, with a moderate-liberal bent.
District 3 – John Salazar (D-Manassa) — my disappointment is that I only moved the needle a couple points in Obama’s direction here. It’s still very rural, and competitive in an open seat situation. There are big pockets of population in Grand Junction, Pueblo, and Jefferson County.
District 4 – Betsy Markey (D-Fort Collins) — New and improved for enhanced Democratic performance! 100% of Larimer, 65% of Adams, and 53% of Weld make for a safe district.
District 5 – Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) — meant to pack Republicans tightly.
District 6 – Mike Coffman (R-Littleton) — ditto in that this low-elevation “Colokansas” district packs GOP votes efficiently. I did cause some mischief by putting Coffman’s home in the 7th.
District 7 – Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) — decidedly Democratic suburban Denver seat comprising half of Arapahoe and 80% of Jefferson.
Minnesota
This is the first state for which I drew two maps, one a Dem gerrymander and the other a bipartisan compromise map. Since Minnesota is expected to lose a seat for a new total of seven, there were some key differences in how I handled the dropped district (as well as how I drew the urban/suburban Twin Cities seats). Collin Peterson’s new 6th and Jim Oberstar’s new 7th are configured similarly in both maps, with Oberstar’s diluted a bit and Peterson’s shored up a tad to create two mildly Dem-friendly rural districts (though Peterson’s is still tough, especially with its geographical identity changing as population loss forces it to leech toward the Iowa border!).
I will run through the bipartisan map first since Republicans currently hold the gov’s mansion:
District 1 – Tim Walz (D-Mankato) vs. John Kline (R-Lakeville) — honestly, Walz vs. Kline was the only logical, not-too-awkward bipartisan incumbent showdown I could seem to configure. This district would be more or less evenly divided in partisan performance and evenly weighted in population between Walz’s southern base and Kline’s exurban territory.
District 2 – Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) — this map being the bipartisan variation, Paulsen gets a clearly more Republican district comprising Anoka County, 35% of Hennepin, and 26% of Carver.
District 3 – Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul) — anchored in Ramsey County, safely Democratic.
District 4 – Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis) — 65% of Hennepin County, and that’s it, for a mostly urban Minneapolis district.
District 5 – Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) — I wanted to soak up all the Republicans I could find (and Bachmann will need them if she keeps up this way).
District 6 – Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) — how to protect Peterson without giving Oberstar an untenable district? Knowing the district would have to extend south, I tried to improve the PVI a bit by taking some rural Dem counties from his neighbor, but not move the needle too dramatically as that would jeopardize the esteemed Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Chairman.
District 7 – Jim Oberstar (D-Chisholm) — more of a swing district than before; Oberstar would be safe but Dems would have to fight for this as an open seat. Is it worth shoring up Peterson’s seat at the cost of making this one equally swingy? I’m no longer convinced.
Overall summary: two safe Dem seats (McCollum and Ellison), two relatively safe GOP seats (Paulsen and Bachmann), two swing seats that would remain safe for their current Dem incumbents (Peterson and Oberstar), one battleground (Walz v. Kline in the 1st).
And now, the hypothetical Democratic gerrymander should luck break our way in the governor’s race (and that certainly didn’t happen in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, or 2006, but I suppose the DFL is overdue for some good fortune in this given area):
The two North Country districts certainly don’t look much different, but the other five, I think, would be quite altered under a Democratic plan.
District 1 – Tim Walz (D-Mankato) — this version mostly steers clear of the Twin Cities area and is heavier in small towns and southern counties that know and like Walz. I can’t knowledgeably estimate the presidential numbers here, but assume Obama would have still won, as I pointedly tried to avoid weakening Walz for other Democrats’ benefit.
District 2 – John Kline (R-Lakeville) vs. Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) — yay, a chance to eliminate Bachmann! Except that, based purely on factors of geography, media coverage, and name recognition, Bachmann would have a good fighting chance in a Republican primary here. Oh well, at least it’s an eliminated GOP seat.
District 3 – Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie) — given how hard it will be to shore up Collin Peterson land without undermining Oberstar’s Iron Range seat, you can bet the Democrats would milk the Twin Cities for every vote they’re worth, and that means messing with Paulsen. Here his district comprises 58% of Anoka, 20% of Dakota, and 42% of Hennepin, for a moderately Dem-leaning/Obama-friendly suburban seat.
District 4 – Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul) — Give and take, give and take. So the 4th gets diluted a bit as it suburbanizes; it’s still plenty solid, but doesn’t waste votes as before.
District 5 – Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis) — extends into Anoka County to hurt Paulsen but remains liberal and overwhelmingly Democratic.
District 6 – Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes) — not a heck of a lot different than in the bipartisan map.
District 7 – Jim Oberstar (D-Chisholm) — ditto.
This map only includes one super-safe GOP seat, two very safe Dem seats, three swing seats that would be strong for their Dem incumbents (Walz, Peterson, Oberstar), and one swing seat that would be vulnerable to ousting its GOP incumbent (Paulsen).
Thoughts on either state are much appreciated!
expect to lose a congressional seat according to the latest figures that I’ve seen.
map, not as smart as your others. You went in the wrong direction. For one you changed the 7th from a 70% Adams county district to a mostly Jefferson county-Araphroe County district that is almost totally new for Perlmutter and a lot more conservative territory overall despite how it may have voted for Obama.
Putting Adams in the 4th wasn’t the best strategy either, and you, like everyone else, have been too concerned with protecting a popular incumbent like John Salazar. Trying to make the 3rd Democratic is a waste of time and votes.
Okay, here’s the deal. Markey’s district, you lop off all the plains, keep fast growing Weld which is trending Dem and Markey’s base of Larimer. That comprises about 600,000 votes of an aproximately 740,000 vote district. Make up the rest by placing Broomfield, Jackson and Routt and a large chunk of northern Boulder. Creates a safely Democratic leaning district that will only trend more and more so.
I would extend CO-02 to the northwest. Though very Republican the area is rural and has few votes. So the new district would consist of most of Boulder, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Grand, Summit, Eagle, Garfiel, Morfatt and Rio Blanco.
Like I said nothing can be done for CO-03 and it becomes slightly more Republican but Salazar can handle it.
The plus side? CO-06 takes in all the plain areas that used to be in CO-04, but they have very little population. It remains dominated by Araphroe, Democratic leaningish and becoming more so, and is redrawn to have more Democratic northern Jefferson as well as only a sliver of more conservative northern Douglas county.
CO-07 reminas super republican.
But this is a good, fair map, rperesentative of the state. It retains three Republican leaning districts and four Democratic leaning ones that are trending moreso. What’s more, a strong moderate Democratc would be posed to win CO-06 if Coffman bails for Governor in 2014. A possible 6-1 delegation in what is really hardly a gerrymander and couldn’t be criticized as partisan.
to protect Salazar, adding the soutehrn tier of Jefferson. For one Jefferson is heavily weighted in the north, Arvada, Littleton, Lakewood, Golden, what you added was probably more rural and exurban territory that has a strong Republican lean to it. And this is where, on these states with big suburbs, you get into trouble without precinct by precinct data because you never know where the Democratic areas are from, but here I can guess. It’s a good looking map, but I think you were trying to go in the wrong direction, maybe too ambitious on it. I’m content to make, as I laid out, rather modest alterations from the current.
Look at the current 7th, then yours, it’s like a mirror image, 90% of it would be new to Perlmutter and not neccessarily Dem friendly territory, that’s why I think that 7th is not a good idea, and Adams is not the best way to tie down CO-04.
@_@
Is Pawlenty even running again? I get the feeling he’s tiring of his current job, and after his narrow escape in 2006 he’s due for another tough fight.
It would be sweet justice to put the relatively mainstream Republican Kline into a district with the nutty Bachmann, and to have her lose to a member of her own party. Paulsen also needs to go, what is a rightwinger like him doing in a district Obama easily carried?
aggressive in Minnesota. I think you can easily draw a 6-1 map, and I think you can draw a 7-0 map.
Split Bachmann’s district several ways.
Stearns to the 7th.
Benton, Wright, Sherburne to the 5th.
Anoka to the 4th and 8th.
Washington to the 4th and 8th.
Draw Ellison and McCollum deep into the suburbs.
The district for Ellison would be as follows: Sherburne, Wright, Benton, the Hennepin County cities of Dayton, Champlin, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center, and almost all of Minneapolis. Bachmann would probably choose to run here.
This district gave Obama a 65-34 edge in 2008. It gave Franken a 53-33-14 edge. Ellison would probably be a slight favorite in this district over Bachmann.
Then using the Democratic territory picked up from Ellison and McCollum’s district, weaken Paulsen and Kline.
I think we can eliminate 2 Repubs there. King’s seat can easily be made Democratic, and Chris Lee’s seat should be targeted for elimination.
I could be wrong but I don’t think either of your maps would meet the compactness requirement of Minnesota state law.
I will try to make a more detailed post later but my thoughts on how the map could end up looking.
– Bachman will be thrown into a Dem leaning district against McCollum. The district would cover Ramsey and most of Washington County.
– I wouldn’t make to much of an effort to shore up Peterson’s district, in fact I would try to add Republican areas to it. Blue Dog Peterson is safe as long as he runs for re-election but once he retires the western part of Minnesota will lean republican regardless.
It accomplishes all the objectives: 1)eliminate Bachmann’s district, 2)make Paulsen’s district bluer, and 3)not significantly endanger any of our incumbents.
As for the 7th CD becoming more R-leaning, it always was that way. Before the 2002 redraw, it went 53-39 for W. As I see it, this seat is on long-term loan that expires once Petersen retires. I’d rather be rid of that seat in exchange for a modified Paulsen district that we can win and hold with greater ease.
However, I’m not sure how I feel about Anoka being split between 3 districts. Would it make much difference if it were just split between Paulsen and one of the Twin City districts?
You might want to take another try at the CO map, as others have pointed out the flaws. However, someone upthread said that the old CO-7 was 58% Adams County. That is not true. IIRC, Jefferson casts the bulk of the current district’s votes (58% I belive) with the rest split between Adams and Arapahoe.
Is Ellison’s district VRA protected in any way? Because, since it’s a D+23 district next to an R+0 district, I figure we could gerrymander the 3rd to be solidly blue (at least D+6) rather than moderately so and still leaving the 5th with a double digit blue PVI.
Maybe it’s just how the colors appear on my computer monitor plus a little bit of color blindness on my part but I cannot see where the 6th district ends and the 7th begins. Would it be possible for you to use a thicker line dividing similarly-colored districts in your future maps?
I think hes safe until he retires, even if his district was made more Republican. The real problem will be when he retires.
Your CD7 in both maps I’m pretty sure voted for McCain. You got rid of a bunch of rural counties way up north that probably balance each other to 50-50 for some of the most Republican ones in the state. I really doubt Obama won it. While your 6th may have voted for Obama, it would’ve been by like thousands of votes and not worth decimating the Obama margin in CD7, it wouldnt fly anyway within the DFL. Cd6 is on temporary hold and we’re all fine with that. We still have a shot even after it’s open and we’d much rather have a solid CD7.
You shouldn’t have bothered trying to get Bachmann’s house into any of the districts, she doesnt belong in Congress. Put her with McCollum get her the hell out.
I like your compromise CD2 in the first map. I can definitely see that happening if the DFL is forced to strengthen him. You could probably even take in less parts of Anoka county up top and take in parts of Scott county, making it basically resemble an arc more so, taking in both of the Republican suburban/exurban arcs around MSP.