Previous diares
Summary:
NE has 3 reps: all R
NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R
NH has 2 reps: both D
NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R
NM has 3 reps: All D
Possibly vulnerable:
NE-02 (R) (a little)
NV-03 (D) (a little)
NH-01 (D) (a little)
NH-02 (D)
NJ-03 (D)
NJ-07 (R)
NM-02
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: NE-01
Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha. Borders MO and IA map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)
VoteView 267
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 over Max Yashrin
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 54-43
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: NE-02
Location Omaha and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Lee Terry (R)
VoteView 373
First elected 1998
2008 margin 52-48 over Jim Esch (D)
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 61-36
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Possible. NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.
District: NE-03
Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Adrian Smith (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2006
2008 margin 77-23 over Jay Stoddard
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-68
Bush margin 2004 75-24
Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)
Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: NV-01
Location Las Vegas map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed
VoteView 180
First elected 1998
2008 margin 68-28 over Kenneth Wegner
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 66-31
Obama margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)
Assessment Safe
District: NV-02
Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Dean Heller (R)
VoteView 384
First elected 2006
2008 margin 52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment Possible. The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.
District: NV-03
Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Dina Titus (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 47-42 over Jon Porter
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment A little vulnerable. Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.
District: NH-01
Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)
VoteView 134
First elected 2006
2008 margin 52-46 over Jeb Bradley
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.
Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.
District: NH-02
Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-52
Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki). Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald. Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.
Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).
Assessment An open seat is never safe.
District: NJ-01
Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Robert Andrews (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 72-26 over Dale Glading
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-02
Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)
VoteView 244
First elected 1994
2008 margin 59-39 over David Kurkowksi.
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot. Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.
District: NJ-03
Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA. map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative John Adler (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)
Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district
District: NJ-04
Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton. Bordering PA and the Atlantic map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Christopher Smith (R)
VoteView 243
First elected 1980
2008 margin 66-32 over Josh Zeitz
2006 margin 66-33
2004 margin 67-32
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)
Assessment Long shot
District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs NJ-05
Location map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Scott Garrett (R)
VoteView 415
First elected 2002
2008 margin 56-42 over Dennis Shulman
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment It would be so nice to get rid of this troglodyte.
District: NJ-06
Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Frank Pallone (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin 67-32 over Robert McLeod
2006 margin 69-30
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-07
Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter . map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Leonard Lance (R)
VoteView 252
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-42 over Linda Stender
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)
Assessment Vulnerable.
District: NJ-08
Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Bill Pascrell
VoteView 67
First elected 1996
2008 margin 71-28 over Ron Stratten
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-09
Location Close NYC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Steven Rothman (D)
VoteView 102.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 68-32 over Vincent Micco
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents There’s a Democratic primary
Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-10
Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 33
Representative Donald Payne (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1988
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin No major party opposition
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 82-18
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-11
Location Central northern NJ, including Dover map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)
VoteView 276
First elected 1994
2008 margin 62-37 over Tom Wyka
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 68-31
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)
Assessment Long shot
District: NJ-12
Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Rush Holt (D)
VoteView 38
First elected 1998
2008 margin 63-36 over Alan Bateman
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 46-55
Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Mike Halfacre
Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)
Assessment Save
District: NJ-13
Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Albio Sires (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 112.5
First elected 2006 (special election)
2008 margin 75-22 over Joseph Turula
2006 margin 78-19
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-25
Bush margin 2004 31-69
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: NM-01
Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert map
Cook PVI 275
Representative Martin Heinrich (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-45 over Darren White
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Jon Barela
Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%), 92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)
Assessment Not completely safe, but should be OK. Heinrich has raised an impressive $600K to Barela’s $73K
District: NM-02
Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Harry Teague (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 56-44 over Edward Tinsley
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Steve Pearce
Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)
Assessment A district that went for McCain can’t be considered safe for a freshman D. But, OTOH, he did win in 2008. Teague has raised $620 K already, to Pearce’s $63K.
District: NM-03
Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-31 over Daniel East
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)
Assessment Probably safe
I remember reading (either here or on Daily Kos) that a Democratic mayor of a town in Sussex County is interested in running against Scott Garrett in 2010. I’m hopeful that the people of Sussex County don’t like Scott Garrett and they only keep reelecting him because they don’t want to be represented by someone from Bergen County.
NJ-03 will be made much safer after redistricting. Hopefully they will completely remove Ocean County. Therefore working hard and spending money to get Adler reelected is something we will only have to do once.
NJ-07 (Lance) is probably the district that will get eliminated. Most of its conservative parts will be added to the Frelinghuysen district. Defeating Lance could set up a 2012 election where it’s an incumbent Democrat vs Rodney Frelinghuysen in the year Obama runs for reelection.
NJ-02 will get more Republican, because it has to expand, and the only place it can expand into is Republican territory. Therefore it will be easier to win it in 2010 than in a later election. Frank Lobiondo seems entrenched, he keeps getting reelected with 60% of the vote. But he hasn’t faced a top tier challenger yet, and we have a top tier challenger, State Senator Jeff Van Drew.
Some thoughts on some of the races you’ve talked about:
In Nebraska-2, State Senator Tom White has indicated that he will probably taking on Republican incumbent Lee Terry. After Obama carried the district and Jim Esch came close to ousting Terry, there is no question that a serious candidate like White makes this a potential Democratic pick-up.
I think you’re misjudging things in Nevada-3 when you say of Dina Titus’s 2008 victory that “winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.” Titus knocked off incumbent Republican Jon Porter by a 47-42% margin, despite entering the race late and being significantly outspent by Porter ($3.1 million for Porter vs. $1.8 million for Titus). Beating an incumbent is always difficult– holding an incumbent to 42% is virtually unheard of absent an indictment.
While a freshman always has to be ready for a tough re-election race, I don’t think Titus is particularly endangered. In 2010 the Republican brand in Nevada is likely to be extremely weak – think of the travails of Senator John Ensign, the unpopularity and personal scandals of Governor Jim Gibbons, and the indicted Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki (who is planning to run for US Senate against Harry Reid despite the indictment). Add in the growing Democratic strength in the 3rd district, the advantages of incumbency, and the Republican difficulty in recruiting a candidate against her, and Titus has to be considered the heavy favorite in this race unless a top notch Republican jumps in.
In NH-1 many local observers believe that Carole Shea-Porter may be more endangered this year against Manchester Mayor Guinta than she was last time out . Unlike 2008, she won’t have the advantage of Obama/Shaheen coattails bringing out Democratic voters – and it isn’t totally clear what the impact of a Hodes/ Ayotte race would be. Shea-Porter’s poor fundraising is always cause for concern (although Guinta’s last quarter numbers weren’t very impressive either). Guinta is a high profile opponent without the DC baggage that Jeb Bradley brought to their races (although Guinta’s recent ballroom brawl definitely didn’t help him). Carole should be able to pull this out, but it is far from a safe seat.
The NH-2 open seat race will be wide open, but the district has been trending Democratic for several cycles, so we should have a slight advantage – several potentially strong Democrats are in the running.
I think Ann McLane Kuster might be the strongest general election nominee — a progressive Democrat, she is the daughter of two popular former Republican moderate politicians in NH – former State Senator Susan McLane and former Concord Mayor and Executive Council member Malcolm McLane. The McLanes were the most prominent NH representatives of the once powerful liberal Republican tradition in New England – the shift of voters like the McLanes from the Republicans to the Democrats helps explain the growth of Democratic strength in NH. (Nothing against most of the other potential candidates – Mark Fernald, Sylvia Larsen and Deb Pignatelli all would be great as well.)