As long as I’ve been interested in politics, I’ve never understood how the NYS Senate was controlled by Republicans for so long, especially in a state as Democratic as New York.
So the purpose of my diary was two-fold: to understand the situation as it is now (our tenuous 2-seat majority), and to look at what a potential redistricting would look like that would cement Democratic control (for the next time…I don’t feel like formatting too much html.)
I started by analyzing Obama’s performance in each Senate district – after Pres-by-CD and the NY political data in Dave’s app, this wasn’t too difficult. Just follow me over the flip…
Here’s the massive table with results from Pres-by-SD.
Senator | Residence | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama | McCain | Total | Obama% | McCain% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenneth LaValle | Port Jefferson | 305,989 | 5.65% | 7.71% | 1.45% | 85,057 | 74,138 | 159,269 | 53.40% | 46.55% | |
2 | John J. Flanagan | East Northport | 305,990 | 1.79% | 4.68% | 4.21% | 73,525 | 77,560 | 151,625 | 48.49% | 51.15% | |
3 | Brian X. Foley | Blue Point | 305,989 | 7.95% | 16.96% | 1.99% | 69,082 | 56,640 | 126,318 | 54.69% | 44.84% | |
4 | Owen H. Johnson | West Babylon | 305,991 | 9.78% | 12.99% | 1.88% | 67,460 | 59,076 | 127,606 | 52.87% | 46.30% | |
5 | Carl Marcellino | Syosset | 305,990 | 3.42% | 7.75% | 4.92% | 80,451 | 72,539 | 153,670 | 52.35% | 47.20% | |
6 | Kemp Hannon | Garden City | 305,993 | 16.66% | 11.91% | 3.24% | 76,903 | 60,223 | 138,096 | 55.69% | 43.61% | |
7 | Craig Johnson | Port Washington | 305,991 | 8.80% | 9.91% | 8.47% | 78,686 | 61,958 | 141,659 | 55.55% | 43.74% | |
8 | Charles Fuschillo | Merrick | 305,990 | 15.92% | 11.20% | 1.96% | 80,004 | 63,438 | 144,437 | 55.39% | 43.92% | |
9 | Dean Skelos | Rockville Centre | 305,990 | 6.25% | 9.29% | 3.60% | 77,566 | 70,225 | 148,869 | 52.10% | 47.17% | |
10 | Shirley Huntley | Jamaica | 318,481 | 54.20% | 15.06% | 8.00% | 94,634 | 10,726 | 105,714 | 89.52% | 10.15% | |
11 | Frank Padavan | Bellerose | 318,482 | 6.27% | 14.14% | 25.93% | 63,743 | 37,329 | 101,850 | 62.59% | 36.65% | |
12 | George Onorato | Astoria | 318,484 | 6.01% | 33.07% | 16.75% | 69,037 | 17,247 | 87,177 | 79.19% | 19.78% | |
13 | Hiram Monserrate | Jackson Heights | 318,484 | 10.63% | 55.89% | 19.37% | 51,451 | 10,827 | 62,586 | 82.21% | 17.30% | |
14 | Malcolm Smith | St. Albans | 318,481 | 54.54% | 15.40% | 7.07% | 91,373 | 16,100 | 107,878 | 84.70% | 14.92% | |
15 | Joseph Addabbo, Jr. | Ozone Park | 318,484 | 3.28% | 26.14% | 11.77% | 51,596 | 32,016 | 84,227 | 61.26% | 38.01% | |
16 | Toby Ann Stavisky | Flushing | 318,483 | 5.17% | 15.07% | 33.35% | 58,858 | 30,976 | 90,539 | 65.01% | 34.21% | |
17 | Martin Malave Dilan | Bushwick | 311,260 | 22.03% | 56.36% | 4.36% | 79,343 | 8,342 | 88,205 | 89.95% | 9.46% | |
18 | Velmanette Montgomery | Boerum Hill | 311,260 | 59.93% | 24.45% | 2.53% | 116,578 | 3,794 | 120,895 | 96.43% | 3.14% | |
19 | John Sampson | Canarsie | 311,258 | 72.29% | 15.14% | 2.05% | 96,181 | 6,859 | 103,181 | 93.22% | 6.65% | |
20 | Eric Adams | Crown Heights | 311,259 | 60.67% | 14.96% | 4.36% | 100,485 | 8,865 | 109,880 | 91.45% | 8.07% | |
21 | Kevin Parker | Flatbush | 311,259 | 59.29% | 10.53% | 5.11% | 77,979 | 14,333 | 92,623 | 84.19% | 15.47% | |
22 | Martin Golden | Bay Ridge | 311,260 | 0.75% | 8.52% | 16.34% | 40,627 | 41,851 | 83,124 | 48.88% | 50.35% | |
23 | Diane Savino | North Shore | 311,259 | 17.56% | 24.10% | 14.04% | 53,004 | 25,977 | 79,520 | 66.65% | 32.67% | |
24 | Andrew Lanza | Great Kills | 311,258 | 1.88% | 7.26% | 5.69% | 47,334 | 74,699 | 122,819 | 38.54% | 60.82% | |
25 | Dan Squadron | Brooklyn Heights | 311,258 | 7.58% | 19.53% | 23.43% | 100,660 | 20,183 | 121,874 | 82.59% | 16.56% | |
26 | Liz Krueger | Upper East Side | 311,260 | 2.11% | 5.19% | 8.32% | 113,824 | 35,817 | 150,786 | 75.49% | 23.75% | |
27 | Carl Kruger | Sheepshead Bay | 311,259 | 5.62% | 8.10% | 11.49% | 36,870 | 45,244 | 82,638 | 44.62% | 54.75% | |
28 | Jose M. Serrano | Spanish Harlem | 311,261 | 33.60% | 56.68% | 2.49% | 85,514 | 6,496 | 92,391 | 92.56% | 7.03% | |
29 | Thomas Duane | Upper West Side | 311,260 | 5.96% | 11.49% | 8.10% | 138,600 | 22,000 | 162,132 | 85.49% | 13.57% | |
30 | Bill Perkins | Harlem | 311,263 | 52.91% | 29.44% | 2.85% | 124,514 | 5,631 | 130,838 | 95.17% | 4.30% | |
31 | Eric Schneiderman | Washington Heights | 311,257 | 10.44% | 57.43% | 3.09% | 102,547 | 13,211 | 116,688 | 87.88% | 11.32% | |
32 | Rubén Díaz | Soundview | 311,260 | 34.51% | 59.44% | 2.72% | 85,434 | 6,587 | 92,269 | 92.59% | 7.14% | |
33 | Pedro Espada | “Bedford Park” | 311,258 | 27.05% | 59.68% | 4.47% | 68,950 | 6,677 | 75,885 | 90.86% | 8.80% | |
34 | Jeffrey Klein | Throgs Neck | 311,260 | 14.26% | 22.93% | 4.62% | 62,555 | 37,231 | 100,472 | 62.26% | 37.06% | |
35 | Andrea Stewart-Cousins | Yonkers | 311,259 | 14.57% | 20.29% | 5.67% | 82,773 | 45,243 | 128,999 | 64.17% | 35.07% | |
36 | Ruth Hassell-Thompson | Williamsbridge | 311,259 | 66.51% | 28.03% | 1.12% | 102,049 | 4,246 | 106,465 | 95.85% | 3.99% | |
37 | Suzi Oppenheimer | Mamaroneck | 311,260 | 9.94% | 17.33% | 4.53% | 91,559 | 48,668 | 141,325 | 64.79% | 34.44% | |
38 | Thomas Morahan | Clarkstown | 320,851 | 10.25% | 9.76% | 5.01% | 78,407 | 71,146 | 150,561 | 52.08% | 47.25% | |
39 | Bill Larkin | New Windsor | 305,749 | 8.15% | 10.70% | 1.49% | 72,792 | 62,702 | 137,003 | 53.13% | 45.77% | |
40 | Vincent Leibell | Patterson | 303,372 | 4.92% | 7.65% | 1.94% | 78,210 | 69,735 | 149,355 | 52.37% | 46.69% | |
41 | Stephen Saland | Poughkeepsie | 301,528 | 8.84% | 5.71% | 2.33% | 79,672 | 63,768 | 145,287 | 54.84% | 43.89% | |
42 | John Bonacic | Mount Hope | 301,290 | 5.90% | 7.85% | 1.12% | 77,302 | 57,670 | 137,089 | 56.39% | 42.07% | |
43 | Roy McDonald | Stillwater | 302,261 | 3.15% | 1.81% | 1.47% | 82,892 | 71,019 | 156,507 | 52.96% | 45.38% | |
44 | Hugh Farley | Schenectady | 302,248 | 3.92% | 3.15% | 1.20% | 70,892 | 66,854 | 140,427 | 50.48% | 47.61% | |
45 | Betty Little | Queensbury | 299,603 | 3.19% | 2.28% | 0.46% | 71,424 | 57,271 | 130,725 | 54.64% | 43.81% | |
46 | Neil Breslin | Albany | 294,565 | 11.08% | 3.08% | 2.72% | 93,937 | 50,586 | 147,110 | 63.85% | 34.39% | |
47 | Joseph Griffo | Rome | 291,303 | 4.18% | 2.40% | 1.09% | 57,564 | 58,571 | 117,986 | 48.79% | 49.64% | |
48 | Darrel Aubertine | Cape Vincent | 290,925 | 3.28% | 2.66% | 0.60% | 54,020 | 52,929 | 108,583 | 49.75% | 48.75% | |
49 | David Valesky | Oneida | 291,303 | 11.65% | 2.55% | 1.77% | 74,545 | 50,788 | 127,516 | 58.46% | 39.83% | |
50 | John DeFrancisco | Syracuse | 291,303 | 4.12% | 2.03% | 1.73% | 79,553 | 59,549 | 141,861 | 56.08% | 41.98% | |
51 | James Seward | Milford | 291,482 | 1.88% | 1.90% | 0.51% | 63,396 | 63,827 | 129,509 | 48.95% | 49.28% | |
52 | Thomas W. Libous | Binghamton | 291,961 | 2.44% | 1.67% | 2.04% | 65,428 | 60,553 | 128,108 | 51.07% | 47.27% | |
53 | George H. Winner, Jr. | Elmira | 294,378 | 3.31% | 1.77% | 2.52% | 63,163 | 58,440 | 123,246 | 51.25% | 47.42% | |
54 | Michael Nozzolio | Fayette | 291,303 | 3.33% | 2.40% | 1.03% | 67,947 | 66,843 | 136,824 | 49.66% | 48.85% | |
55 | James Alesi | East Rochester | 301,947 | 6.20% | 3.39% | 2.61% | 88,764 | 69,674 | 160,354 | 55.36% | 43.45% | |
56 | Joseph Robach | Greece | 301,947 | 24.50% | 7.97% | 2.44% | 86,216 | 43,226 | 130,931 | 65.85% | 33.01% | |
57 | Catharine Young | Olean | 295,288 | 1.93% | 2.74% | 0.45% | 53,902 | 62,151 | 118,065 | 45.65% | 52.64% | |
58 | William Stachowski | Lake View | 298,637 | 3.94% | 4.80% | 0.80% | 74,167 | 55,222 | 131,724 | 56.30% | 41.92% | |
59 | Dale Volker | Depew | 294,256 | 2.21% | 1.60% | 0.49% | 65,450 | 78,887 | 146,642 | 44.63% | 53.80% | |
60 | Antoine Thompson | Buffalo | 298,636 | 37.84% | 4.14% | 1.24% | 87,908 | 25,277 | 114,604 | 76.71% | 22.06% | |
61 | Michael Ranzenhofer | Clarence | 298,635 | 2.40% | 1.28% | 2.57% | 77,641 | 74,020 | 153,935 | 50.44% | 48.09% | |
62 | George D. Maziarz | Newfane | 301,947 | 4.68% | 2.55% | 0.92% | 62,703 | 69,048 | 133,837 | 46.85% | 51.59% |
In case you’re wondering, McCain won a scant 9 districts of 62. Since one, the 27th, is represented by Carl Kruger, there are a whopping 22 “Obama Republicans” in the NY Senate. There are 8 black-majority districts: 2 in Queens, 4 in Brooklyn, 1 in Manhattan, and 1 in Bronx/Westchester. There are 6 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 in Queens, 1 in Brooklyn, 2 in the Bronx, and 2 Bronx-Manhattan hybrids.
Is this surprising? Not really – Presidential toplines aren’t necessarily indicative, and this is certainly true here. But looking at the results a little differently, a pretty clear line is drawn in the Obama 58-60% range.
So I’d like to propose Obama at 59% as the ‘safe’ line for a Democrat in the NY Senate – only two Republicans live above this line, and six Democrats below: Brian Foley (54.69%) and Craig Johnson of Long Island (55.55%); David Valesky (58.46%), whose district which runs between Rome, Syracuse, and Auburn; Darrel Aubertine of the North Country (49.75%); and Bill Stachowski (56.30%) of Buffalo, and Carl Kruger of Sheepshead Bay, who I don’t think counts for many reasons maybe better saved for a diary on voting patterns in Brooklyn.
Only two Republicans live above this line – both of whom faced stiff challenges in 2008 and nearly fell victim to the Obama tide, Frank Padavan of Bellerose (Obama+26) and James Robach of Greece (Obama+33) (!!…Robach is a former Democrat).
There aren’t too many other surprises on this list, except for maybe that the most Republican district in all of New York is Andrew Lanza’s Staten Island district…
So now you’re asking…what does this mean for redistricting?
Well, a few things moving forward:
- the goal, unlike Congressional redistricting, is no longer solely to squeeze every Democratic district out possible, it’s to get to the magic number for control first.
- at a certain point, the weakening effect (on the margin) from creating another Democratic district becomes greater than the effect of that marginal Democrat. (For example, is there really that much of a difference between 43 and 44 Democrats out of 62?) [Sidenote: Yes, in some cases, like marriage equality, it does…but if we had 11 more Dems in the Senate, I’m pretty sure the bill would have passed…]
- the NYS GOP pushed the 5% up-or-down rule to the limit. Given the ideal district size of 306,072, districts in the city, on Long Island, and in Westchester have an average population of 311,344; the average population upstate is 298,269!
- the GOP gerrymandered well upstate: they conceded two districts in Buffalo and one in Albany, but split Syracuse and Rochester two-ways, and Ithaca three to dilute Democratic votes. This happens on Long Island as well, where the Democratic center of Nassau County in Uniondale and Hempstead are split between Kemp Hannon (who did almost lose), Carl Marcellino, and Dean Skelos.
- in a revised upstate (and Long Island) map, we simply need to uncrack these Democrats. This isn’t like congressional redistricting where Republicans need to be cracked so we can preserve our overwhelming advantage; we can concede a few districts without too much trouble. The same holds for Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.
- the opposite holds true in the city, where we have a large surplus of Democratic votes that we can dilute the influence of Republican voters.
My plan made 43 districts above the safe line. Assuming we can’t knock off Robach and we keep both Stachowski and Kruger, we’d be talking 44 or 45 Democrats. Funny how much tweaking boundaries can change things. Stay tuned for the map itself.\
Update:As Andrew says, maps would be helpful. Here’s the senate as it currently is. I’m working on final maps for my proposed districts.
I think what you’ve demonstrated is that it’s going to be really quite difficult to make all (or even most) upstate Dem Congresscritters safe. OTOH, If Dems can retain even the slimmest majority in the chamber next year, the Republicans will have a hard time ever controlling it again.
Carl Kruger is perfectly understandable; conservative Jews won’t vote for Barack Obama, but they’re perfectly content voting for a local (white) Jew. The three NYC Republicans are the most obvious ones to squash. It’s pretty easy to see what to do with Martin Golden and Frank Padavan, but getting rid of Lanza does involve a little trick. You’d have to make Savino’s district entirely within Staten Island and hug the northern coast, which would make for a 57% Obama district, and stack the rest of Staten Island to form a 33-67 McCain mixture. Then, you need to hop across the Verrazano Bridge and immediately skip to some liberal white areas near Manhattan, which ultimately makes Lanza’s district around 61% Obama. Yes, Savino is under the “safety line”, but I would imagine Staten Island voting patterns to be a little like that of Brooklyn Jews, with whom Obama was just a really really bad fit.
“Stay tuned for the map itself”, BOOOOO!!!!! 😉
One suggestion, can you post a map or link to the current senate map? Id love to see the differences.
is Obama’s worst performance in a State Senate district was in a Democratic-held one in Brooklyn!?!
How’s that for irony.
If I were the Democrats, I would be going on the offense, even in this political environment. All of those 54%+ Obama districts are potentially attractive targets. Arguably the Republicans are still overstretched in upstate.
What do we have on the table? Anything?
I was looking for this information the other day before I started on a NY Senate map. If I ever get around to writing a diary, you wouldn’t mind me using this data, would you?
If you want to do a Democratic gerrymander for the New York State Senate: Before the Delaymander in Texas, there were many Democrats who won areas carried by Bush in 2000. Delay changed the lines of the districts so the Democrats found themselves in unfamiliar territory with unfamiliar voters. For a Democratic State Senate map, chop up the district of a Republican you want to eliminate and the district with his or her home should be heavily Democratic.
Summed up: The key is to get the Republican to run in an area he or she is not entrenched in.
I’d like to meet whoever came up with District 51 so I could find out what s/he was smoking and get some for myself.
This is an enlightening table – good work. Where did you pull your data from – the individual county Board of Election?