It’s been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, and a lot has happened since then. So, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.
As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-07 | Artur Davis | D | D+18 | Running for Governor |
| AR-02 | Vic Snyder | D | R+5 | Retiring |
| AZ-03 | John Shadegg | R | R+9 | Retiring |
| CA-19 | George Radanovich | R | R+9 | Retiring |
| DE-AL | Mike Castle | R | D+7 | Running for Senate |
| FL-12 | Adam Putnam | R | R+6 | Running for Ag Comm’r |
| FL-17 | Kendrick Meek | D | D+34 | Running for Senate |
| FL-19 | Robert Wexler | D | D+15 | Resigned to join non-profit |
| GA-09 | Nathan Deal | R | R+28 | Running for Governor |
| HI-01 | Neil Abercrombie | D | D+11 | Running for Governor (Resigning) |
| IL-10 | Mark Kirk | R | D+6 | Running for Senate |
| KS-01 | Jerry Moran | R | R+23 | Running for Senate |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | D | R+3 | Retiring |
| KS-04 | Todd Tiahrt | R | R+14 | Running for Senate |
| LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | D | R+12 | Running for Senate |
| MI-02 | Peter Hoekstra | R | R+7 | Running for Governor |
| MO-07 | Roy Blunt | R | R+17 | Running for Senate |
| NH-02 | Paul Hodes | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| OK-05 | Mary Fallin | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| PA-07 | Joe Sestak | D | D+3 | Running for Senate |
| SC-01 | Henry Brown | R | R+10 | Retiring |
| SC-03 | Gresham Barrett | R | R+17 | Running for Governor |
| TN-03 | Zach Wamp | R | R+13 | Running for Governor |
| TN-06 | Bart Gordon | D | R+13 | Retiring |
| TN-08 | John Tanner | D | R+6 | Retiring |
| WA-03 | Brian Baird | D | D+0 | Retiring |
We’ve got eight new additions to our big board of House retirements and vacancies, five of them Democratic, and three Republican. We’ve also had one subtraction, from GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach — although since he still technically has a primary challenger, he’s staying on the watch list for now.
What’s notable is that, just two months ago, we had zero “true” retirements (as opposed to attempts to seek higher office), and now we have exactly eight members saying goodbye to elected office in 2011. Of the twelve Democratic-held open seats, Republicans have a chance of winning all but AL-07, FL-17, and FL-19. On the other hand, I think I count about two and a half legitimate pick-up opportunities for Democrats among the R-held seats up for grabs.
Meanwhile, eight new names are added to our watch list, and 11 have come off:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Don Young | R | R+13 | 77 | Age/Legal issues |
| AL-05 | Parker Griffith | R | R+12 | 68 | Primary challenge |
| CA-36 | Jane Harman | D | D+12 | 65 | Scandal/Primary challenge |
| CA-42 | Gary Miller | R | R+10 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| CA-44 | Ken Calvert | R | R+6 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| FL-02 | Allen Boyd | D | R+6 | 65 | Primary challenge (Declined Senate run) |
| FL-10 | Bill Young | R | R+1 | 79 | Age/Strong challenge |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson | D | D+24 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| IN-03 | Mark Souder | R | R+14 | 60 | Primary challenge |
| IN-06 | Mike Pence | R | R+10 | 51 | Possible Senate run |
| IN-05 | Dan Burton | R | R+17 | 72 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Donna Edwards | D | D+31 | 52 | Possible primary challenge |
| MI-01 | Bart Stupak | D | R+3 | 58 | Unlikely gubernatorial run |
| MI-10 | Candice Miller | R | R+5 | 56 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| MI-12 | Sander Levin | D | D+12 | 79 | Age/Primary challenge |
| MI-13 | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick | D | D+31 | 65 | Possible primary challenge |
| MN-06 | Michele Bachmann | R | R+7 | 54 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| NC-06 | Howard Coble | R | R+18 | 79 | Age |
| NC-10 | Patrick McHenry | R | R+17 | 35 | Primary challenge |
| NY-15 | Charlie Rangel | D | D+41 | 80 | Age/legal issues/possible primary |
| OR-04 | Peter DeFazio | D | D+2 | 63 | Possible gubernatorial run |
| PA-06 | Jim Gerlach | R | D+4 | 55 | Aborted gubernatorial bid/Primary challenge |
| PA-11 | Paul Kanjorski | D | D+4 | 73 | Primary challenge (won’t retire) | PA-19 | Todd Platts | R | R+12 | 48 | Seeking GAO appointment/Primary challenge |
| SC-04 | Bob Inglis | R | R+15 | 51 | Primary challenge |
| TN-01 | Phil Roe | R | R+21 | 65 | Possible primary challenge |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | D | D+23 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| TX-03 | Sam Johnson | R | R+14 | 80 | Age |
| TX-04 | Ralph Hall | R | R+21 | 87 | Primary challenge (won’t retire) |
| TX-06 | Joe Barton | R | R+15 | 61 | Possible Senate run |
| TX-18 | Sheila Jackson-Lee | D | D+24 | 63 | Primary challenge |
| TX-23 | Ciro Rodriguez | D | R+4 | 63 | Primary challenge |
A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Jo Bonner | R | R+14 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| AL-02 | Bobby Bright | D | R+16 | 58 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CA-24 | Elton Gallegly | R | R+4 | 66 | Won’t retire |
| CA-31 | Xavier Becerra | D | D+29 | 52 | Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y |
| CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | D | D+4 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | D | D+9 | 67 | Considered for Labor Sec’y |
| FL-03 | Corrine Brown | D | D+18 | 63 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-13 | Vern Buchanan | R | R+6 | 59 | Declined Senate/gubernatorial run |
| FL-14 | Connie Mack | R | R+11 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | D+13 | 44 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-21 | Lincoln Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | 56 | Declined to seek Senate appointment |
| FL-22 | Ron Klein | D | D+1 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| FL-25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | R | R+5 | 49 | Never expressed interest in Senate run |
| GA-01 | Jack Kingston | R | R+16 | 55 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-03 | Lynn Westmoreland | R | R+19 | 60 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| GA-08 | Jim Marshall | D | R+10 | 62 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| IA-01 | Bruce Braley | D | D+5 | 53 | Declined Senate run |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | D | D+1 | 76 | Won’t retire |
| IA-05 | Steve King | R | R+9 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| IL-07 | Danny Davis | D | D+35 | 69 | Withdrew from run for local office |
| IL-06 | Peter Roskam | R | D+0 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-09 | Jan Schakowsky | D | D+20 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| IL-13 | Judy Biggert | R | R+1 | 73 | Won’t retire |
| KY-01 | Ed Whitfield | R | R+15 | 67 | Declined Senate Run |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | D | R+9 | 51 | Declined Senate Run/won’t retire |
| MD-06 | Roscoe Bartlett | R | R+13 | 84 | Won’t retire |
| MI-08 | Mike Rogers | R | R+2 | 47 | Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run |
| MI-09 | Gary Peters | D | D+2 | 51 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| MO-01 | Lacy Clay | D | D+27 | 54 | Has not expressed interest in Senate run |
| MO-08 | Jo Ann Emerson | R | R+15 | 60 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-02 | Bob Etheridge | D | R+2 | 69 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | D | R+5 | 54 | Declined Senate run |
| NC-11 | Heath Shuler | D | R+6 | 38 | Declined Senate run |
| ND-AL | Earl Pomeroy | D | R+10 | 58 | Declined Senate run |
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | D | R+0 | 57 | Declined Senate run |
| NJ-02 | Frank LoBiondo | R | D+1 | 64 | Not tapped for Lt. Governor |
| NV-02 | Dean Heller | R | R+5 | 50 | Has not expressed interest in gube run/ Declined Senate run |
| NY-02 | Steve Israel | D | D+4 | 52 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-03 | Peter King | R | R+4 | 66 | Declined Senate run (Twice) |
| NY-04 | Carolyn McCarthy | D | D+26 | 66 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-09 | Anthony Weiner | D | D+5 | 46 | Declined mayoral run |
| NY-14 | Carolyn Maloney | D | D+6 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| NY-16 | Jose Serrano | D | D+41 | 67 | Declined Senate run |
| MN-07 | Collin Peterson | D | R+5 | 66 | Won’t retire |
| MO-04 | Ike Skelton | D | R+14 | 78 | Won’t retire |
| OH-08 | John Boehner | R | R+14 | 60 | Averted primary challenge |
| OH-17 | Tim Ryan | D | D+12 | 37 | Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run |
| OH-18 | Zack Space | D | R+7 | 49 | Declined Senate run |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | R | R+18 | 61 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| OR-02 | Greg Walden | R | R+10 | 53 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| PA-08 | Patrick Murphy | D | D+2 | 37 | Never expressed interest in Senate run |
| PA-12 | John Murtha | D | R+1 | 78 | Won’t retire |
| PA-13 | Allyson Schwartz | D | D+7 | 62 | Declined Senate run |
| PA-17 | Tim Holden | D | R+6 | 64 | Won’t retire |
| SC-05 | John Spratt | D | R+7 | 68 | Won’t retire |
| SD-AL | Stephanie Herseth | D | R+9 | 39 | Declined gubernatorial run |
| TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | D | R+13 | 67 | Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire |
| TX-10 | Mike McCaul | R | R+10 | 48 | Declined AG run |
| TX-17 | Chet Edwards | D | R+20 | 58 | Declined VA Sec’y/won’t retire |
| UT-02 | Jim Matheson | D | R+15 | 50 | Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire |
| UT-03 | Jason Chaffetz | R | R+26 | 43 | Declined Senate run |
| VA-09 | Rick Boucher | D | R+11 | 64 | Won’t retire |
| VA-10 | Frank Wolf | R | R+2 | 71 | Won’t retire |
| WI-01 | Paul Ryan | R | R+2 | 40 | Declined Senate run/Declined gube run |
| WI-03 | Ron Kind | D | D+4 | 47 | Declined gubernatorial run |
Are reconsidering. Sigh.
Only raised $4,700 in the fourth quarter (and spent over half of his cash on hand last year). That’s usually an indicator that something’s up.
They decided to take the option that simply was not an option. They will probably lose the House again, like in 1994. Why do Democrats keep trying this? It is a loser every time. Time to stop campaigning on this issue and start promising more realistic things.
His fundraising is uncharacteristically off, like he’s not trying anymore.
State Rep Tim Scott is getting mentioned as possibly sitching from the Lt. Govenor’s race to the SC-1 race.
This source is ‘decent’ but not totally reliable. As an African-American, if Scott were to win the nomination and the general he would fill the void left by JC Watts’ retirement years ago.
http://www.fitsnews.com/2010/0…
Also, Paul Thurmond, son of Strom, appears to be taking the plunge for this seat as well.
He really isn’t that old, is he???
Obama won because he turned out minorities, youth, and independents. Right now, the 2010 election is going to be older, whiter, and more conservative then 2008. If Obama doesn’t activate his base and move left he’s screwed.
No, the Republicans won’t take the house. They might win 20 seats depending on retirements and GOTV efforts. The Dems have more money, they have the President, and they still have huge majorities in the House and Senate. If they move left and push through some populist bills (job creation) then the poll numbers will go up.
Does anyone know if the Dems have a good House candidate to replace Melancon?
He’s even more Republican than the Republicans? Last time I looked he was still a Democrat…