2010 House Open Seat Watch (1/21/10)

It’s been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, and a lot has happened since then. So, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.

As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.

Definite Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Notes
AL-07 Artur Davis D D+18 Running for Governor
AR-02 Vic Snyder D R+5 Retiring
AZ-03 John Shadegg R R+9 Retiring
CA-19 George Radanovich R R+9 Retiring
DE-AL Mike Castle R D+7 Running for Senate
FL-12 Adam Putnam R R+6 Running for Ag Comm’r
FL-17 Kendrick Meek D D+34 Running for Senate
FL-19 Robert Wexler D D+15 Resigned to join non-profit
GA-09 Nathan Deal R R+28 Running for Governor
HI-01 Neil Abercrombie D D+11 Running for Governor (Resigning)
IL-10 Mark Kirk R D+6 Running for Senate
KS-01 Jerry Moran R R+23 Running for Senate
KS-03 Dennis Moore D R+3 Retiring
KS-04 Todd Tiahrt R R+14 Running for Senate
LA-03 Charlie Melancon D R+12 Running for Senate
MI-02 Peter Hoekstra R R+7 Running for Governor
MO-07 Roy Blunt R R+17 Running for Senate
NH-02 Paul Hodes D D+3 Running for Senate
OK-05 Mary Fallin R R+13 Running for Governor
PA-07 Joe Sestak D D+3 Running for Senate
SC-01 Henry Brown R R+10 Retiring
SC-03 Gresham Barrett R R+17 Running for Governor
TN-03 Zach Wamp R R+13 Running for Governor
TN-06 Bart Gordon D R+13 Retiring
TN-08 John Tanner D R+6 Retiring
WA-03 Brian Baird D D+0 Retiring

We’ve got eight new additions to our big board of House retirements and vacancies, five of them Democratic, and three Republican. We’ve also had one subtraction, from GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach — although since he still technically has a primary challenger, he’s staying on the watch list for now.

What’s notable is that, just two months ago, we had zero “true” retirements (as opposed to attempts to seek higher office), and now we have exactly eight members saying goodbye to elected office in 2011.  Of the twelve Democratic-held open seats, Republicans have a chance of winning all but AL-07, FL-17, and FL-19. On the other hand, I think I count about two and a half legitimate pick-up opportunities for Democrats among the R-held seats up for grabs.

Meanwhile, eight new names are added to our watch list, and 11 have come off:

Potential Retirements/Vacancies:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Don Young R R+13 77 Age/Legal issues
AL-05 Parker Griffith R R+12 68 Primary challenge
CA-36 Jane Harman D D+12 65 Scandal/Primary challenge
CA-42 Gary Miller R R+10 62 Primary challenge
CA-44 Ken Calvert R R+6 57 Primary challenge
FL-02 Allen Boyd D R+6 65 Primary challenge (Declined Senate run)
FL-10 Bill Young R R+1 79 Age/Strong challenge
GA-04 Hank Johnson D D+24 56 Primary challenge
IN-03 Mark Souder R R+14 60 Primary challenge
IN-06 Mike Pence R R+10 51 Possible Senate run
IN-05 Dan Burton R R+17 72 Primary challenge
MD-04 Donna Edwards D D+31 52 Possible primary challenge
MI-01 Bart Stupak D R+3 58 Unlikely gubernatorial run
MI-10 Candice Miller R R+5 56 Possible gubernatorial run
MI-12 Sander Levin D D+12 79 Age/Primary challenge
MI-13 Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D D+31 65 Possible primary challenge
MN-06 Michele Bachmann R R+7 54 Possible gubernatorial run
NC-06 Howard Coble R R+18 79 Age
NC-10 Patrick McHenry R R+17 35 Primary challenge
NY-15 Charlie Rangel D D+41 80 Age/legal issues/possible primary
OR-04 Peter DeFazio D D+2 63 Possible gubernatorial run
PA-06 Jim Gerlach R D+4 55 Aborted gubernatorial bid/Primary challenge
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D D+4 73 Primary challenge (won’t retire)
PA-19 Todd Platts R R+12 48 Seeking GAO appointment/Primary challenge
SC-04 Bob Inglis R R+15 51 Primary challenge
TN-01 Phil Roe R R+21 65 Possible primary challenge
TN-09 Steve Cohen D D+23 61 Primary challenge
TX-03 Sam Johnson R R+14 80 Age
TX-04 Ralph Hall R R+21 87 Primary challenge (won’t retire)
TX-06 Joe Barton R R+15 61 Possible Senate run
TX-18 Sheila Jackson-Lee D D+24 63 Primary challenge
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez D R+4 63 Primary challenge

A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Off the Watch List:

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-01 Jo Bonner R R+14 50 Declined gubernatorial run
AL-02 Bobby Bright D R+16 58 Declined gubernatorial run
CA-24 Elton Gallegly R R+4 66 Won’t retire
CA-31 Xavier Becerra D D+29 52 Declined USTR/Commerce Sec’y
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez D D+4 50 Declined gubernatorial run
CT-03 Rosa DeLauro D D+9 67 Considered for Labor Sec’y
FL-03 Corrine Brown D D+18 63 Declined Senate run
FL-13 Vern Buchanan R R+6 59 Declined Senate/gubernatorial run
FL-14 Connie Mack R R+11 43 Declined Senate run
FL-20 Debbie Wasserman Schultz D D+13 44 Declined Senate run
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart R R+5 56 Declined to seek Senate appointment

FL-22 Ron Klein D D+1 53 Declined Senate run
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart R R+5 49 Never expressed interest in Senate run

GA-01 Jack Kingston R R+16 55 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland R R+19 60 Declined gubernatorial run
GA-08 Jim Marshall D R+10 62 Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run
IA-01 Bruce Braley D D+5 53 Declined Senate run
IA-03 Leonard Boswell D D+1 76 Won’t retire
IA-05 Steve King R R+9 61 Declined gubernatorial run
IL-07 Danny Davis D D+35 69 Withdrew from run for local office
IL-06 Peter Roskam R D+0 49 Declined Senate run
IL-09 Jan Schakowsky D D+20 66 Declined Senate run
IL-13 Judy Biggert R R+1 73 Won’t retire
KY-01 Ed Whitfield R R+15 67 Declined Senate Run
KY-06 Ben Chandler D R+9 51 Declined Senate Run/won’t retire
MD-06 Roscoe Bartlett R R+13 84 Won’t retire
MI-08 Mike Rogers R R+2 47 Never expressed interest in gubernatorial run
MI-09 Gary Peters D D+2 51 Declined gubernatorial run
MO-01 Lacy Clay D D+27 54 Has not expressed interest in Senate run
MO-08 Jo Ann Emerson R R+15 60 Declined Senate run
NC-02 Bob Etheridge D R+2 69 Declined Senate run
NC-07 Mike McIntyre D R+5 54 Declined Senate run
NC-11 Heath Shuler D R+6 38 Declined Senate run
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy D R+10 58 Declined Senate run
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter D R+0 57 Declined Senate run
NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo R D+1 64 Not tapped for Lt. Governor
NV-02 Dean Heller R R+5 50 Has not expressed interest in gube run/
Declined Senate run
NY-02 Steve Israel D D+4 52 Declined Senate run
NY-03 Peter King R R+4 66 Declined Senate run (Twice)
NY-04 Carolyn McCarthy D D+26 66 Declined Senate run
NY-09 Anthony Weiner D D+5 46 Declined mayoral run
NY-14 Carolyn Maloney D D+6 62 Declined Senate run
NY-16 Jose Serrano D D+41 67 Declined Senate run
MN-07 Collin Peterson D R+5 66 Won’t retire
MO-04 Ike Skelton D R+14 78 Won’t retire
OH-08 John Boehner R R+14 60 Averted primary challenge
OH-17 Tim Ryan D D+12 37 Declined Senate/Lt. Gov. run
OH-18 Zack Space D R+7 49 Declined Senate run
OK-04 Tom Cole R R+18 61 Declined gubernatorial run
OR-02 Greg Walden R R+10 53 Declined gubernatorial run
PA-08 Patrick Murphy D D+2 37 Never expressed interest in Senate run
PA-12 John Murtha D R+1 78 Won’t retire
PA-13 Allyson Schwartz D D+7 62 Declined Senate run
PA-17 Tim Holden D R+6 64 Won’t retire
SC-05 John Spratt D R+7 68 Won’t retire
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth D R+9 39 Declined gubernatorial run
TN-04 Lincoln Davis D R+13 67 Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire
TX-10 Mike McCaul R R+10 48 Declined AG run
TX-17 Chet Edwards D R+20 58 Declined VA Sec’y/won’t retire
UT-02 Jim Matheson D R+15 50 Declined gubernatorial run/won’t retire
UT-03 Jason Chaffetz R R+26 43 Declined Senate run
VA-09 Rick Boucher D R+11 64 Won’t retire
VA-10 Frank Wolf R R+2 71 Won’t retire
WI-01 Paul Ryan R R+2 40 Declined Senate run/Declined gube run
WI-03 Ron Kind D D+4 47 Declined gubernatorial run

Resolved vacancies.

25 thoughts on “2010 House Open Seat Watch (1/21/10)”

  1. Only raised $4,700 in the fourth quarter (and spent over half of his cash on hand last year). That’s usually an indicator that something’s up.

  2. They decided to take the option that simply was not an option.  They will probably lose the House again, like in 1994.  Why do Democrats keep trying this?  It is a loser every time.  Time to stop campaigning on this issue and start promising more realistic things.  

  3. State Rep Tim Scott is getting mentioned as possibly sitching from the Lt. Govenor’s race to the SC-1 race.

    This source is ‘decent’ but not totally reliable.  As an African-American, if Scott were to win the nomination and the general he would fill the void left by JC Watts’ retirement years ago.


    Also, Paul Thurmond, son of Strom, appears to be taking the plunge for this seat as well.    

  4. Obama won because he turned out minorities, youth, and independents. Right now, the 2010 election is going to be older, whiter, and more conservative then 2008. If Obama doesn’t activate his base and move left he’s screwed.

    No, the Republicans won’t take the house. They might win 20 seats depending on retirements and GOTV efforts. The Dems have more money, they have the President, and they still have huge majorities in the House and Senate. If they move left and push through some populist bills (job creation) then the poll numbers will go up.

    Does anyone know if the Dems have a good House candidate to replace Melancon?

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