Redistricting outlook: Kansas-Maryland

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

The rest below the fold…

Kansas

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Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Nope

With an all-Republican delegation, GOP mapmakers may simply try to ensure that Kevin Yoder avoids a close race in the next decade.

Kentucky

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Districts: 6

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and House, GOP Senate)

Is that important? Perhaps

I have heard rumors that Republicans hope to stall the redistricting process past the 2011 state elections, expecting to topple both Gov. Beshear and the Democratic House majority this November. But assuming a continuation of the status quo, Ben Chandler should get a slightly more favorable district than the one he nearly lost in 2010.

Louisiana

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Districts: 6, down from 7 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and House, Dem Senate)

Is that important? Not really

The outcome of reapportionment in Louisiana has scarcely been in doubt since Jeff Landry was elected last November. He will be forced against fellow Republican Rep. Charles Boustany in a coastal district. Meanwhile, Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected seat will have to absorb a lot of new population near Baton Rouge, and Rodney Alexander’s underpopulated northern seat will expand southwest a bit.

Maine

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Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? No

Maine does not even traditionally redraw its maps before the election year ending in 2. Sometime in 2013, the commission will make some boundary adjustments, and both Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree should remain reasonably secure should they still be in office two years from now.

Maryland

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Districts: 8

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Perhaps

The question here is how aggressive Democrats perceive they can afford to be. They already constructed a master gerrymander in 2002, moving the delegation from a 4-4 split to a thoroughly safe 6-2 Democratic edge. Now, some are pushing for a 7-1 map that remakes Andy Harris’s Eastern Shore seat for a moderate Dem like Frank Kratovil. However, such a map presents serious issues: how to maintain VRA-mandated black majorities in the 4th (represented by Donna Edwards) and 7th (Elijah Cummings)? How to keep the four other Dem incumbents completely safe? With today’s redistricting technology, it can probably be done, but the 1st cannot be made securely Dem lest other districts be jeopardized…only politically competitive enough for Kratovil to stage a comeback.

21 thoughts on “Redistricting outlook: Kansas-Maryland”

  1. is odd–yes they have the Gov elections this Nov but legislative elections fall on the regular two year cycle. So no more legislative elections until 2012.  That being said a Gov win might marginally improve their position in redistricting.  I rather expect to see a standpat map with a slight improvement to Chandler in KY6.

    Kansas actually had quite a tussle in 2001 even as the GOP was complete control.  Jim Ryun balked at taking over Douglas county and very little effort was made to dislodge Democrat in his seat.  There are people here that always expect the party in control to maximize their advantage.  That did not happen in 2001 as the GOP actually kept Morre’s seat the same.  Ryun as it happened lost his seat and the state was 2D-2R for one cycle. Its now its back to 4R.  So in the GOP eyes things worked out.

    Maine has a provision in state constitution that redistricting bills need a 2/3 vote so in essence its bipartisan in that state.  Lines have not really changed much since 1960.

    I think we can all agree that Maryland has very smooth and fair lines.  In 2000 the voters had split Maryland 4R-4D. In an effort to better reflect the real partisan nature of the state, however, and to eliminate competitive seats a new map was drawn.  This map got the delegation to 7D-1R after the 2006/2008 elections. Its now 6D-2R and I suspect a fairer map will be drawn in 2011 that could get it back to 7D-1R.  

  2. Kentucky – The Republicans’ best chance is to stall for long enough to make the courts draw the map, so KY-06 would likely remain similar to how it is now. Democrats would probably prefer to stretch KY-06 out to the Democratic counties in eastern Kentucky.

    Maryland – MD-01 doesn’t have to be made a safe Dem district; I’ve done maps that preserves the other six districts while turning MD-01 into a 54-44 Obama district, which is good enough for a Kratovil comeback. I doubt Harris could survive in a swing district, and the rest of the Republican bench on the Eastern Shore isn’t that impressive.

  3. I’m not sure why the GOP seems to be leaning toward trying to push congressional redistricting into ’12. In both cases I don’t see the return being worth the risk, do they really think they can cut out Ben Chandler or Gerry Connolly? They can likely shore up all their incumbents (including the 3 freshmen in VA) without risking the fallout from a Nuclear Option redistricting punt.

  4. Just a quick note on this, Democrats control the State Senate but are tied 19-19 after a few party switches, notably longtime state Sen. John Alario.

    Republicans won an open seat race 2 weeks ago to replace an independent state senator. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate in the ancestrally Democratic seat, despite having a huge wealth of candidates to draw from.

    The other open seat is another ancestrally Democratic seat east of Lafayette in the heart of cajun country. However, like much of south Louisiana, this seat is rapidly changing.

    Of the 8 state house seats that overlap this district, 4 are controlled by Democrats, 3 by Republicans and 1 by an Independent.

    One of the Republican state reps is the main GOP candidate. In the house, he represents much of the rural, lightly populated coastal part of Vermillion Parish, the only parish fully located in the 26th senate district.

    The Democrat in the race is a member of the Vermillion Parish Police Jury and an owner of a oilfield services company.

    Currently, I think the Democrat in the race has a pretty good shot at holding this, although polling has been all over the place. He’s a self-funder and has the strong support of Buddy Leach.

    Here’s hoping the Ds hold this seat come Feb. 19

  5. With Kentucky vote totals outside of DRA.  I’m pretty sure a district could be drawn for Chandler (mostly trading counties with KY-5) which improves his PVI from R+10 to R+6 or so (which is fairly safe for a conservative Democrat).  Given I didn’t look at Kerry vote totals when I was calculating PVI, it’s plausible the district would be a bit safer than that.  

  6. Do you mean into Lafayette or Lake Charles? Really? But those would be in Boustany’s district, wouldn’t they? 5 needs a ton of population as every parish in the NE part of the state other than Ouachita lost population.

  7. that Maryland’s data has been released for 2010 census.

    I have not studied it up but I do note that Montgomery county is now 49% white.  The hispanic, asian and AA population in this county has soared.  

    Baltimore city lost 30K while DC suburbs gained.

    I think there are now three minority majority seats in Maryland. The two AA members and Van Hoellen’s seat

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