Tag: UT-02

AK-Sen: Man, we are seriously close! Just $195 away from our goal of raising $2,400 for Dem Scott McAdams in the topsy-turvy Alaska senate race. We have 64 contributors right now – I’d love to see us get to 70 before all is said and done. And if we hit our target now, you get to stop seeing nags from me!

DE-Sen: One final (?) independent expenditure report from the Tea Party Express, good for another $20K of media on Christine O’Donnell’s behalf. Damn this one ought to be exciting tonight.

CA-Gov: Gah, this is just unspinnably bad. Meg Whitman releases an ad featuring footage of Bill Clinton attacking Jerry Brown in the 1992 presidential primary, so what does Brown do? He calls Clinton a liar – and manages to make a crack about Monica freakin’ Lewinsky. (Talk about stuck in a time warp.) After a day, Brown finally apologized.

FL-Gov: Alex Sink secured endorsed from two top law enforcement groups: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Police Benevolent Association. Her campaign says it’s the first time in two decades both orgs have endorsed a Dem (the FOP hasn’t does so in 16 years).

KS-Gov: Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. Dem Tom Holland smacked Republican Sam Brownback during a recent debate for supporting a $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – leaving Brownback to sputter that he voted against the bailout. Well, yeah, he voted against the infamous TARP. But Holland had him dead-to-rights on a separate vote, from July of 2008, which did in fact provide money to prop up the two government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.

ME-Gov: Watch GOP nominee Paul LePage get seriously testy when reporters ask him about the fact that his wife received homestead tax exemptions for properties in both Maine and Florida in 2009. (More details here.)

FL-02: Hah! This is why it pays to keep good records! Republican Steve Southerland claimed on a radio show that he had never donated money to Allen Boyd – so Boyd’s campaign dug up a $100 check from 1997 (!) that Southerland had made out to Boyd. Nice work!

FL-08: Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is out with her first TV ad of the cycle – notable, of course, because you don’t often see third-party candidates on the air (especially two months out from election day), and also because Dunmire has claimed she plans to put $250,000 of her own cash into the race.

IL-14: Idiot: GOPer Randy Hultgren made two separate contributions (totaling $2,000) to his federal campaign committee… from his state campaign committee. That, my friends, is not allowed (and which is why Hultgren is returning the money).

MI-01 (PDF): Republican Dan Benishek is touting an internal poll from TargetPoint Consulting, showing him with a 54-31 lead over Dem Gary McDowell. The polling memo is written in a pretty grossly sycophantic way, and my spidey sense is twigged enough for me to wonder if the ballot test was asked up top, or after some axe-grindy “issue” questions.

TN-04: Republican Scott DesJarlais is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him four points behind Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis, 45-41. Note to TargetPoint Consulting: This is how a polling memorandum should look.

DCCC: Reid Wilson has a detailed report on the D-Trip shifting ad money around, but really, it doesn’t sound very good to me. In the waning days of WWII, my dad (in Poland) would tune in to Nazi-censored radio reports about the German troops “consolidating their positions” or “shifting to more strategically advantageous territory,” etc. It was all bullshit-speak code for “we’re retreating.” So you tell me if you think the DCCC is reducing its ad buys in Arizona because vulnerable Dems there “are running stronger than expected campaigns,” or if that, too, is bullshit. Similarly, should we be happy that the Dems are cancelling buys in North Dakota? Of course, those radio broadcasts my dad listened to were in fact good news….

Chicago-Mayor: I don’t know if we’ll be able to keep up with what I’m sure will be an avalanche of candidacy announcements, but former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun says she’s throwing her hat in the ring for the Chicago mayor’s race.

SSP-TV (written by James L.):

AL-02: The DCCC, as part of its huge $1.2 million ad reservation on behalf of Dem Bobby Bright, is hitting Martha Roby for being funded by “special interests working to privatize Medicare.” The ad is no longer publicly available on YouTube, though.

AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar hits Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick over spending in irritatingly-produced ad

AZ-05: David Schweikert attacks Harry Mitchell on taxes, bailouts, the stimulus, and (ironically) negative ads

AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly dubiously claims that he’s running to protect Social Security (despite last year saying: “I would love to eliminate the program.”)

CT-04: Dan Debicella goes after sophomore Dem Rep. Jim Himes on the usual GOP complaints

FL-22: Allen West hides the crazy in his new ad, instead hitting Dem Rep. Ron Klein on the economy

HI-01: Democrat Colleen Hanabusa reintroduces herself to voters

IA-03: GOPer Brad Zaun calls fans of government shrinkage to join his campaign

IL-10: Bob Dold! points the finger at Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform for economic malaise

NM-02: Steve Pearce says he’ll create jobs somehow

MI-07: Mark Schauer gets a bunch of angry seniors to berate ex-Rep. Tim Walberg over his scary views on Social Security. I like this one.

MO-03: Republican Ed Martin airs his first ad touting his efforts to save jobs

OH-01: Dem Steve Driehaus says that Steve Chabot won’t stand up to the Tea Party

SC-02: Joe Wilson, via a retired General, hits Democrat Rob Miller on receiving fundraising assistance from MoveOn.org. His second ad touts his job platform. On a related note, Joe Wilson has a startlingly robotic voice – he sounds like something a Macintosh LC 630’s speech synthesizer would be spitting out in 1994.

UT-02: Republican Morgan Philpot urges change in his first spot, and says that he’s gonna “wear this sucker out” in ad #2

WI-08: Roofing contractor Reid Ribble touts his record of teaching high school volleyball

NRCC ads: AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07

A relatively quiet night, but one deserving of a roundup nonetheless.

North Carolina:

• NC-Sen (D): It’s been a long six weeks since the first round, where Elaine Marshall narrowly missed the threshold for a runoff by 4% with 36%. She picked up the endorsement of third-place finisher Ken Lewis (who scored 17%) in the meantime, countering the almost $200,000 put in on Cal Cunningham’s behalf by the DSCC. The DSCC’s efforts were again futile, with Marshall scoring a 60-40 victory. Given that Marshall won 57% of the head-to-head vote against Cuninngham in Round 1, this represents a 3% swing in her direction. DSCC Chair Bob Menendez put out a short statement in support of Marshall, who now goes on to face Richard Burr for the “cursed” seat that switches party every 6 years. (JMD)
• NC-08 (R): It looks like D’Annunziana Jones can spend more time busting the Ark of the Covenant out of Area 51. Ex-broadcaster Harold Johnson beat the enriched plutonium-level crazy Tim D’Annunzio by a 61-39 margin despite being badly out-spent. This one will probably end up being a real race this fall, despite D’Annunzio’s refusal to congratulate or endorse Johnson. (JL)

South Carolina:

• SC-Gov (R): Nikki Haley narrowly missed avoiding a runoff two weeks ago with 49%, but she sealed the deal with a convincing 65-35 victory over Gresham Barrett, who received 22%. Barrett’s dog-whistling attempts – referring to himself as a Christian family man who “won’t embarrass us” – didn’t seem to work, only carrying three counties within his district. The result falls surprisingly along the fault lines from the first round – AG Henry McMaster, who received 17% threw his support to Haley, while LG Andre Bauer threw his 12% to Barrett. Haley will now face Democratic State Senator Vincent Sheheen. (JMD)
• SC-01 (R): State Rep. Tim Scott is set to become the GOP’s first African-American congressman since J.C. Watts, much to the relief of John Boehner and Scott’s backers at the Club for Growth. Scott crushed attorney Paul Thurmond (the son of Strom) by a monstrous 68-32 margin, and faces a sub-par Democratic opponent in November. (JL)
• SC-03 (R): The Club for Growth had a much closer shave in this district, where their preferred candidate, state Rep. Jeff Duncan, only beat  the underfunded Richard Cash, an owner/operator of a fleet of ice cream trucks, by a 51-49 margin. Duncan will be the heavy favorite to win this 64% McCain in the general election. (JL)
• SC-04 (R): Wow, what a pathetic loss. Incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis barely moved the needle from his 28% primary performance, finishing the night with just 29% of the vote to Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy’s whopping 71%. I wonder if we’ll ever see what Bob Inglis 3.0 looks like. (JL)

Utah:

• UT-Sen (R): Tim Bridgewater had a 57-43 advantage in the third round of balloting at Utah’s state GOP convention, but that didn’t hold over into the primary. Tim Bridgewater was viewed as the favorite and was up in the one public poll of the race (Mike Lee was up in his internals), but Lee (the son of Reagan’s solicitor general Rex) pulled out a narrow 51-49 victory over Bridgewater. Bridgewater had a narrow advantage along the heavily-populated Wasatch Front, but Lee more than offset this with his strength in Washington County (St. George) and the sparsely populated areas in between. (JMD)
• UT-02 (D): Democrats had worried about some GOP involvement to bounce the moderate (and more electable) Jim Matheson by pushing for liberal activist and school teacher Claudia Wright but Matheson cruised to a 68-32 victory. Wright had denied Matheson the outright nod at the Democratic convention – presumably due to his ‘no’ vote on HCR – netting 45% of delegates, but among the wider primary electorate, she didn’t fare as well. Matheson goes on to face former Southern SLCo State Rep. Morgan Philpot in his bid for a sixth term. (JMD)
  

Bonus Race: California!

• CA SD-15 (special): California’s 15th Senate district may get my vote for the nation’s most beautiful legislative district, but the results here weren’t too pretty. In a district that’s D+5 at the presidential level, Republican state Assembly minority leader Sam Blakeslee finished ahead of Democratic ex-Assemblyman John Laird, 50-41. However, California special election law requires one to break 50% to avoid a runoff, and Blakeslee’s 49.7% wasn’t enough. So, all four candidates (including a Libertarian and an indie) will do the exact same thing again on Aug. 17, although tonight’s results don’t bode well for Laird turning things around during the replay. (C)

Here’s what’s on-tap for tonight:

• NC-Sen (D): They take a long time to get around to their runoffs in North Carolina, but we’re finally here. The marquee contest pits Secretary of State Elaine Marshall against former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Marshall led 36-27 in the first round, with 17% going to third-place finisher Ken Lewis, who endorsed Marshall a few weeks after the primary. As evidenced by Lewis’s backing, Marshall seems to have rallied the black political community to her side, while Cunningham still retains the support of the DC establishment (DSCC chair Bob Menendez’s PAC recently gave him $5,000). The only public poll of this race was from PPP, which showed things tied at 36. However, that survey was taken just after the primary, at the beginning of May, and it’s hard to say how things may have changed since then. But if Marshall can consolidate Lewis’s vote (see Jeff’s maps here), she ought to be in good position to win.
• NC-08 (R): It’s hard out there for a nutter – really, it is. There’s so much competition these days – from Rand Paul, from Sharron Angle, even from Vaughn Ward. But Tim D’Annunzio’s tried his best. In fact, he’s tried everything, from claiming he knows where the Ark of the Covenant lies buried (Arizona) to suing his opponent, former TV sportscaster Harold Johnson (for defamation). The entire Republican establishment from chimpan-a to chimpan-z has rushed to get behind Johnson, but he’s only raised about $363K. Meanwhile D’Annunzio has been flushing money like a smack addict (which he once was), to the tune $1.3 million. In a recent survey, PPP nonetheless had Johnson leading 49-39, but we can – nay, we must – still root for Timmy D!
• SC-Gov (R): Despite some misgivings from elements of the SC GOP establishment (including the Chamber of Commerce), it appears that state Rep. Nikki Haley is the smart money bet to win the Republican gubernatorial run-off against Congressman Gresham Barrett. Haley came oh-so-close to an outright victory in the first round of voting, scoring 49% to Barrett’s 22%. Third-place finisher Henry McMaster, the state’s attorney general, threw his support to Haley while Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer backed Barrett. It’s been mostly smooth sailing for Haley in the runoff, though, and an internal poll released by her campaign a week and a half ago gave her a commanding lead over Barrett. (J)
• SC-01 (R): The run-off for the nod to replace GOP Rep. Henry “Smokey” Brown in the House of Representatives is coming down to African-American state Rep. Tim Scott and attorney Paul Thurmond, the son of Strom. Scott has a lot going for him, including the support of the NRCC and other Washington power-players who are exited by the prospect of finally electing another black Republican to the House. Scott also has the muscle of the Club for Growth behind him, so it would probably be a serious upset if Thurmond, who won only 16% of the vote to Scott’s 31% in the first round, prevailed. (J)
• SC-03 (R): Businessman Richard Cash, who finished with a surprisingly strong 25% in the first round, and Laurens County State Rep. Jeff Duncan (who received 23%) are squaring off to replace outgoing would-be governor Gresham Barrett. The pair have split the endorsements of some also-rans, Duncan earning the support of 5th place finisher Neal Collins and Cash that of 6th place’s Mike Vasovski. Third and fourth place finishers Rex Rice (who was widely expected to make the runoff) and Joe Grimaud haven’t endorsed either. Duncan is the institutional candidate, but both are somewhat teabaggish. Regrettably, regardless of who wins, he will likely be the next Congressman from this R+17 district. (JMD)
• SC-04 (R): Bob Inglis version 2.0, and his rare voice of rationality in the House GOP caucus, seem to be going the way of Windows 3.1. His 28% tally in the first round against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (who received 39%) and assorted teabaggery is the weakest of any House incumbent so far. Though none have made endorsements, Inglis’ other opponents in the first round, seem to be more in line ideologically with Gowdy. Given this, and despite a late endorsement from Stephen Colbert, we can likely chalk this one up to America Glenn Beck 1, Sanity 0. (JMD)
• UT-Sen (R): With three-term incumbent Bob Bennett having been unceremoniously retired at the GOP convention, Utah Republicans are deciding between the two insurgents who beat Bennett, former Utah County GOP chair Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, the former counsel to ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman. Bridgewater may have the mantle of “establishment” thrust upon him, thanks to the endorsement of Bennett, and correspondingly, while Lee is running with the conglomerated FreedomWorks/Club for Growth/Jim DeMint/RedState axis backing him — but, as Ed Kilgore points out, that doesn’t really make Bridgewater appreciably any less ultra-conservative than Lee. Bridgewater leads the most recent public poll of the race, 42-33, but Lee is out with his own internal giving him the lead. (C)
• UT-02 (D): Rep. Jim Matheson shouldn’t have trouble winning tonight’s Democratic primary against activist and teacher Claudia Wright; it’s more a question of by what margin? It was something of a surprise when Matheson got forced into a primary at the Democratic state convention, but (like the flipside of the GOP convention) that’s dominated by the activist base, some of whom seem eager to punish Matheson over his ‘no’ vote on health care reform. A number of other anti-HCR Blue Doggish Dems (Heath Shuler, Tim Holden, Larry Kissell) in red districts have been held in the 65% region by no-namers in their primaries; the one poll of this primary, giving Matheson a 52-33 lead, suggests a similar outcome here. (C)

Bonus race:

• CA SD-15: There’s one other race to watch tonight: the special election to fill the 15th Senate district in California, left vacant by Republican Abel Maldonado’s ascension to Lt. Governor. If there’s one good place left in California for a Democratic legislative pickup, this is it. It’s a D+5 district on California’s Central Coast, where Democratic former Assemblyman John Laird faces off against GOP Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee. Don’t forget, though, under California’s unusual special election system, this probably isn’t the decisive night. There are also an independent and Libertarian on the ballot, and if nobody clears the 50% hurdle, there’s a runoff on August 17. (C)

• FL-Sen: Politico has a new FL-Sen piece provocatively titled “Democrats flirt with backing Charlie Crist,” but it points to some definitely solidifying conventional wisdom: that Crist, who has been steadily moving to the left in his independent bid, is becoming more appealing to local Dem power brokers as something of a de facto Dem candidate. This is especially the case if Jeff Greene, who has no base and a truckload of vulnerabilities, somehow spends his way into snatching the Dem nomination from Kendrick Meek. Along those lines, Crist‘s latest repositioning is on the issue of travel to Cuba, where he’d previously backed restrictions on travel and remittances but is now moving more in line with freer Democratic positions.

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall got an endorsement from MoveOn with less than a week to go until the Senate runoff against Cal Cunningham. It’s kind of late in the game, but MoveOn money may fund some last-minute ground-pounding.

• NV-Sen: Why do I have the feeling that Sharron Angle is going to get her own bullet every morning filled with the latest crazy revelations about her? I don’t even know where to begin: hot on the heels of revelations that she used to be a member of the right-wing Independent American Party in the 1990s (which she left because of political expedience to run for state Assembly) comes today’s revelations that in the 1980s she left the Republican Party at the height of the Reagan era to become a… Democrat? (She says she did so to help a conservative Dem with his state Senate campaign.) Well, now she can claim she’s tripartisan. Also from yesterday were, of course, revelations that in January of this year she floated the possibility of armed insurrection if Congress “keeps going the way it is.”

With the NRSC playing whack-a-mole with daily Angle bombshells, John Cornyn says he’ll be rolling her out verrrrrrry slowly… it’ll be “a few weeks” before she’s ready to take questions from the press. This comes on top of several stories about Cornyn’s more centrist colleagues cautiously distancing themselves from Angle, with Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe saying they aren’t getting involved, and Dick Lugar taking exception to most of her key action items. At least Jim DeMint is coming to her rescue, paying for some IEs on her behalf out of his PAC money.

• MI-Gov (pdf): Magellan’s out with another public poll of a Republican primary, this time in Michigan. They find Peter Hoekstra narrowly in the lead at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Cox at 16, Mike Bouchard at 11, and Tom George at 2. Meanwhile, Cox seems to at least be winning the endorsement game; he got two more nods today, both from two of Hoekstra’s slightly more moderate House colleagues: Dave Camp and Thad McCotter. (Candice Miller, on the other hand, backed Hoekstra last week.)

• OR-Gov: Here’s quick about-face from John DiLorenzo, a Portland attorney who’d fronted himself six figures to launch an independent gubernatorial candidacy. Today he decided not to run after all; he had an interesting explanation, in that he felt that both Dem John Kitzhaber and GOPer Chris Dudley were moderate enough that there really wasn’t any room for him to carve out some space in the middle.

• NC-11: GOP nominee Jeff Miller is out with an internal poll from POS conducted several weeks ago that show him in somewhat competitive territory against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler. The poll gives Shuler a 46-34 edge over Miller. Miller is on the wrong end of 10:1 cash advantage for Shuler, but just got a FreedomWorks endorsement which may help him gain some ground.

• NJ-06: It looks like the GOP primary in the 6th, the last race from Super Duper Tuesday not to be called, is finally over. Diane Gooch, the pre-primary favorite, at least based on her NRCC backing, conceded and said she won’t seek a recount. Anna Little finished 84 votes ahead of Gooch, who endorsed Little for the run against long-time Dem Rep. Frank Pallone.

• NY-24: Here’s one more big problem for endangered Rep. Mike Arcuri: GOP opponent Richard Hanna got the endorsement of the statewide Independence Party. There’s one catch, though; the Cayuga County Independence Party isn’t on board, and say they’d prefer to endorse Arcuri (and take great issue with the selection process, or lack thereof). It’s unclear for now how the state and county parties will resolve the dispute. Hanna got the 2008 IP line, which probably helped him keep things surprisingly close that year.

• OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi was yesterday declared one of only nine GOPers who need continued financial support, largely because he’s facing a top-tier challenge from Franklin Co. Commissioner Paula Brooks. Brooks got a big fundraising boost today with an endorsement from EMILY’s List, which should help send some money in the direction of one of the few places where Dems are playing offense.

• TN-04: One more internal poll to report on, although it’s incredibly stale (from late March… however it was just brought to our attention, thanks to a tipster in the comments). A poll by Republican pollster OnMessage finds Rep. Lincoln Davis — a Dem in a terrible district but facing small-fry opposition — leads his two possible opponents, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey, by identical 44-33 margins.

• UT-02: It sounds like the GOP is still maintaining hopes of monkeying around with the Dem primary in the 2nd, as there are subtle rumblings of efforts to get teabaggers to cross over and vote for very liberal (and probably unelectable in the general) Claudia Wright instead of Rep. Jim Matheson in the Dem primary. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though, considering that those same voters would probably like to have a say in the hard-fought and likely close Republican Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater on the same day (June 22).

• WI-08: The crowd in the GOP field in the 8th is a little smaller; retired physician Marc Trager dropped out of the race, citing health reasons. He gave his backing to state Rep. Roger Roth, who still faces ex-state Rep. Terri McCormick, contractor Reid Ribble, and county supervisors Marc Savard and Andy Williams.

• VA-St. House: The GOP held seats in the state House of Delegates in two special elections last night, meaning they still control that chamber 59-39 (with 2 GOP-leaning indies). Both were in fairly red territory, but the Dems had felt they had a potentially strong candidate in HD-15 in Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner. Degner lost to Tony Wilt, 66-34. In Chesterfield County in Richmond’s suburbs, Roxanne Robinson beat William Brown with 72%.

FL-Sen: Not unexpectedly, Charlie Crist vetoed a bill (passed by Flordia’s Republican state lege and supported by anti-choice groups) which would have required women seeking an abortion to first get an ultrasound. Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek both fired off press releases attacking Crist – the former for abandoning conservative principles, and the latter for trying to “run away” from his “anti-choice past.”

KY-Sen: We’ve mentioned this before, but now the Louisville Courier-Journal has a lengthy piece looking at Rand Paul’s renegade ophthalmology certification organization, called the National Board of Opthalmology. It turns out that the American Board of Medical Specialties – the meta-group which certifies this country’s certifying organizations – doesn’t recognize Paul’s concoction. Rather, they recognize the American Board of Ophthalmology, from whom Paul used to have a certification, but which he let lapse some years ago.

SC-Sen: So now even the White House is weighing in on the mysterious primary victory of Alvin Greene, with senior advisor David Axelrod saying he thinks Green’s win “doesn’t appear” legitimate. This widespread establishment skepticism may enoucrage loser Vic Rawl to file a formal protest with the state Democratic Party, something he has until noon today to do. The party could void the result if it found serious flaws, but state chair Carol Fowler says something like that is “pretty rare.” And Nathan Gonzales also makes a good point: Greene may have spent $0 on this race, but Rawl didn’t spent a whole lot more – just $45K.

UT-Sen (pdf): Wilson Research Strategies for Mike Lee (6/10, likely voters):

Mike Lee (R): 39

Tim Bridgewater (R): 30

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±5.7%)

AL-Gov: This seems a little odd: lame duck AG Troy King (who just lost the GOP primary) issued an advisory opinion saying that the July 13th Republican gubernatorial runoff ballot should feature the names of Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley – even if third-place finisher Tim James displaces Bentley in a planned recount. King advises that another runoff take place if James’s recount is successful.

MI-Gov: Fifth CD Rep. Dale Kildee endorsed Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero in the Democratic primary, the first member of the House from Michigan to weigh in in the gubernatorial race. His nephew Dan Kildee, who considered running himself, also got behind Bernero.

NH-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Lynch formally filed for re-election last Friday. He’s seeking a fourth consecutive two-year term, something no one has won before in New Hampshire history. A piece in the Laconia Citizen looks at the challenges Lynch faces in achieving this goal.

OH-Gov: Gov. Ted Strickland reported raising $1.3 million between April 23rd and June 10th, giving him $7.7 million cash-on-hand and $11.5 million raised for the entire campaign (which his camp says is a record). Politico also says that Strickland has raised more than any other Dem governor seeking re-election, but note that only seven fall into this category. Meanwhile, Republican John Kasich raised the same amount but has $5.7 million on hand.

UT-Gov: Ah, timing is everything in politics. Just four days after Gov. Gary Hebert called for more oil drilling in Utah, a Chevron pipeline burst a leak, spilling 500 barrels oil into Salt Lake City’s Red Butte Creek, forcing the closure of the city’s biggest park. (Click the link for a pic. More here.)

AR-01: The link is behind a paywall, so we don’t have much to go on, but apparently Tim Wooldridge is “hedging” on an endorsement of Chad Causey, the man who beat him in the runoff last week. Let’s hope this changes soon.

AR-02: Also behind a paywall (at the Hotline) is this tidbit that state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) said she “doesn’t know” whether she’d support Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Elliott, who has a liberal reputation, probably has some re-positioning to do to remain competitive in this race, but is acting Pelosi-agnostic really plausible? Even Mike Oliverio eventually backed down from this perch – and he’s infinitely more conservative than Elliott.

CT-04: A supporter of Dan Debicella says her name fraudulently appeared on a nominating petition for rival Tom Herrmann, who is also seeking the GOP nod to take on Rep. Jim Himes in the fall. Stories like this don’t tend to have much legs, though, unless there turns out to be widespread fraud.

GA-09: Representative-elect Tom Graves (R) will be sworn in to the House later today. Note that the two other remaining vacancies in the House – NY-29 and IN-03, both the product of resignations due to scandal – will not be filled until November. Also, Graves is not out of the woods yet, as he still faces a regular July 20th primary for the fall general election.

MD-01: Looks like Andy Harris has gone, at least, birther-curious. During a recent radio appearance, Harris refused to dismiss a caller’s accusation that Barack Obama’s U.S. citizenship is “false”, saying that he doesn’t know why all the details on Obama’s birth certificate are “being hidden”. (J)

MS-01: Kumbaya, my lord, kumbaya. There seem to be no hurt feelings in this GOP primary, after all. After initially refusing to endorse primary winner Alan Nunnelee, former Fox News commentator Angela McGlowan has endorsed his campaign in an email to her supporters. Second-place finisher Henry Ross also threw his endorsement to Nunnelee, making the circle complete and activating the powers of Captain Planet. (J)

NC-08: Mountain of Crazy Tim D’Annunzio has upped his personal investment in his bid for the GOP nomination against Larry Kissell to $1.3 million. Harold Johnson, the guy whom the NRCC desperately wants to see win the primary, is getting out-gunned; he only raised $49K in the pre-runoff period, and is getting outspent by a greater than 2-1 margin. (J)

NY-24: The Oneida County District Attorney’s office is investigating quid pro quo allegations surrounging a 2008 donation that Republican candidate Richard Hanna made to the Oneida County Independence Party. (J)

SC-01: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt tweets that House GOP leaders are “launching [a] full scale effort for Tim Scott”, the African-American state Rep. who’s locked in a runoff with legacy candidate Paul Thurmond. Karl Rove himself is even cutting a check for Scott. (J)

UT-02: Dem Rep. Jim Matheson certainly doesn’t appear to be taking any chances in his first-ever primary against retired teacher/activist Claudia Wright. Matheson’s pre-primary FEC filing shows that his campaign has brought in $142K and spent nearly $467K since Wright shocked Matheson by forcing a primary at the May Democratic convention, leaving the incumbent with just over a million in the bank. Wright, for her part, only raised $15K during that time, and spent $17K. (J)

WA-02: Moose alert! Sarah Palin gave her latest Twitter endorsement to Snohomish County councilman John Koster, who’s seeking a rematch against Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen. Koster faces absolute nutball John Carmack in the Republican primary. Be sure to scroll to the bottom of Carmack’s website. (J)

Even the mailman takes off today. But not SSP….

AR-Sen: Mitch Berry, the son of retiring Dem Rep. Marion Berry, is stepping up his fight against Bill Halter’s purported war on common sense. Berry’s PAC, Arkansans For Common Sense, just filed a $150,000 media buy against Halter, bringing their total expenditures in this race to nearly $350K. (J)

NV-Sen: Salon notes that hard-charging teabagger Sharron Angle has been handing out her own newspaper-style pamphlet at campaign events, titled “The Angle Examiner.” Underneath eye-grabbing headlines like “Reid Waterboarding the Economy” are photos of Angle in various action poses, including one in which she’s firing her .44 Magnum, which she calls her “Dirty Harry Hand Cannon.” Salon editorializes that “the breathless tone of its writing, and the very un-slick design, makes it seem like one more piece of evidence that Angle may not be quite ready for prime time.”

Ready or not, Angle is getting some big help in the closing days of her insurgent campaign. The Club for Growth filed a half-million dollar expenditure report with the FEC, the bulk of which is being spent on direct mail and attack ads hitting front-runner Sue Lowden. At the same time, the Tea Party Express has upped their media buys supporting Angle by another $50K. (J)

AZ-Gov: Get a load of this tyranny. GOP Gov. Jan Brewer says that she “has removed” state AG Terry Goddard, a Democrat running against her this fall, from defending the state against possible litigation by the federal Department of Justice surrounding the state’s “papers please” immigration law. Apparently, Brewer thinks that Goddard is “colluding” with the DoJ after learning that he met with DoJ lawyers shortly before they met with the governor’s legal advisors. This is a routine practice for Justice Department attorneys when considering legal action against a state, but Brewer will have none of it. Goddard, for his part, insists that he will be “definitely defending the state” in any challenges to the law. (J)

NY-Gov: Ex-Rep. Rick Lazio scored the Conservative Party’s endorsement, but he didn’t exactly do it in fine fashion. Chairman Mike Long pushed the party convention a week ahead of the GOP confab, in the hopes of pressuring the Republicans to nominate Lazio instead of recent ex-Dem Steve Levy. But this move ruffled quite a few feathers, it seems, and supporters of Levy and ultra-creepbag Carl Paladino conspired to also put Erie County Conservative chair Ralph Lorigo on the ballot as well. This means that if Lorigo sees it through, Lazio could face a contested primary for the Conservative line. That would mean two different primaries for two different parties with two different sets of opponents for Lazio at the same time! I also have to wonder whether Long will also face backlash over his continued meddling in NY-23 as well. Ah, the Republicans: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

CA-36: Not taking any chances, Dem Rep. Jane Harman is out with an incendiary ad against her primary opponent, activist Marcy Winograd. The ad, which began airing on local cable stations and FIOS last Thursday, hits Winograd for wanting to “kill the defense budget” and to “destroy Israel.”  Kudos to the Politico’s Alex Isenstadt for inquiring about the size of the ad buy, but shame on the Harman campaign for declining to provide details. (J)

CA-42: Teabagging accountant Phil Liberatore pumped another $375K of his own cash into his race against GOP Rep. Gary Miller. Liberatore has now spent half a million trying to unseat Miller, who has spent “only” $337K. There are also a couple of Some Dudes in this race. The primary is June 8th.

FL-10: Even though the House ethics office cleared Bill Young in the PMA lobbying scandal back in February, a criminal investigation is apparently underway at the Justice Department. (You may recall that several lawmakers were accused of steering defense-related earmarks to PMA clients, in exchange for campaign donations.) Dem Charlie Justice seems to be overplaying his hand here (if he even has one), calling for Young to resign from office.

GA-09: Sure, anyone can file a lawsuit, but banks aren’t Orly Taitz, and they usually only sue debtors when they mean it. So it’s a bit startling to see that a local bank is suing Tom Graves, the leading candidate in the GA-09 runoff, to recover an unpaid $2.25 million business loan. They’re also accusing him of fraudulently transferring some property in order to frustrate the bank’s collection efforts. This sounds pretty serious, and could be a real game-changer. The second round of this special election is on June 8th, where Graves, a former state rep., faces Lee Hawkins, a former state senator. (Graves led 35-23 in the first round.)

ID-01: Walt Minnick just rolled out a list of 100 key supporters across his district, including a bunch of prominent Republican donors and elected officials, like some county commissioners and the former head of the National Cattleman’s Beef Association. Whoo-eee!

IL-10: Biden alert! The VPOTUS will do a fundraiser for Dan Seals on June 21st in Chicago.

NC-08: It’s always the sign of a successful campaign when the candidate starts threatening to sue members of his own party for defamation. That’s what SSP fave Tim D’Annunzio is doing, claiming that the state GOP chair is spreading lies about him. Oh, and he wants $5 million. God speed, little Timmy!

NY-01: Bill Clinton will be doing a $2,400-a-head fundraiser for Rep. Tim Bishop in Manhattan this Thursday, while Henry Kissinger will be doing the same for Republican Chris Cox. (Cox is the grandson of Richard Nixon, who of course was BFF with Kissinger back in the day.) P.S. Note to CQ-Roll Call: There is no “furor” about this dumb Sestak job non-story.

SC-02: GOP Rep. Joe Wilson raised an unbelievable amount of cash after his infamous State of the Union outburst, and he’s spending at an equally prodigious clip, too. Wilson’s pre-primary fundraising report, filed with the FEC, indicates that his campaign brought in $190,000 in a six-week period following the end of March, but he also spent over $450,000 out of his war chest, leaving him with under $1.9 million cash-on-hand. All told, Wilson has spent a whopping $2 million on his re-election campaign already, despite not facing any primary opposition. (J)

UT-02: Rep. Jim Matheson scored the backing of the 18,000-strong Utah Education Association teachers union. It so happens that his primary opponent, Claudia Wright, has been a teacher for 30 years.

NRCC: A good observation by Steve Benen, who points out that the NRCC has recently begun lowballing expectations. While Republicans had for months been acting as though they were sure to retake the House, NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy has reduced his oddly specific takeover from 45 to 37 – just short of what the GOP would need for the majority. Benen wonders if the NRCC is playing a deep game here, trying to goad supporters into giving their all, lest they become complacent. But in the wake of PA-12 and other embarrassments in primaries, maybe the Republicans really have dialed back their hopes a bit.

FL-Sen: Anyone else think that Charlie Crist may be risking a long cycle of bad press over his decision not to permit refunds to Republican contributors after all? NRSC Chair John Cornyn sent Crist a letter scolding him for holding onto the money, and the announcement has also generated another round of headlines snarking on Crist for changing his mind about yet another issue. Say what you will about Arlen Specter, but at least he shed his Republican donor money with little drama.

NC-11: It’s (almost) official — there will be no GOP runoff for the right to tackle Democrat Heath Shuler. Businessman Jeff Miller finished the final canvass with 40.25% of the vote, a hair above the runoff line.

NJ-03: Here’s something you don’t see every day: GOP candidate and former Philly Eagle Jon Runyan has unleashed a hard-hitting oppo research file… on himself. After being dogged in the press recently over a DUI arrest in his college days, his dubious voting record, and huge property tax breaks that he receives after he decided to designate the area around his home as “farmland”, Runyan decided that he may as well lance all of his remaining boils. Runyan’s disclosures include late property tax payments, two lawsuits and a tax lien.

NY-15: Activist Jonathan Tasini has decided to abandon his unnoticed primary challenge against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and set his sights on the House instead. His new target? Embattled Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel.

PA-12: The DCCC has thrown down another $290,000 on media buys against Tim Burns, bringing their total investment in this race up to nearly $940,000.

PA-19: Todd Platts’ Republican primary opponent, Mike Smeltzer, is trying to turn Platts’ job application to the Government Accountability Office against him in the primary. In a recent mailer to voters, Smeltzer suggested that Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell will have the power to hand-pick Platts’ replacement. Platts is, of course, crying foul at that bit of tasty misinformation.

SD-AL: GOP Secretary of State Chris Nelson, who’s competing in a three-way primary for the right to take on Dem Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, had to walk back comments that suggested that he was at least birther-curious. Nelson now says that he firmly believes that Barack Obama was born in the United States.

UT-02: A Republican state legislator got caught scheming on his Facebook account to encourage 2nd CD Republicans to vote to defeat incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in his primary against retired schoolteacher Claudia Wright. State Rep. Carl Wimmer was later forced to apologize for the Limbaughesque suggestion, but some teabagger activist named Chase Everton is leading an online effort to help spread the idea around. I’m not sure how successful all this may be, considering that many ‘baggers will likely want to have a say in the Republican Senate primary.

WA-02: Republican John Koster, a former state Representative who lost an open seat race against Democrat Rick Larsen in 2000, has put out an internal poll showing him well within striking distance of an upset in this D+3 district. Larsen leads Koster by 44-37, down from a 48-24 lead in December.

Dealers: USA Today looks at the political headaches that last year’s “Cash For Clunkers” initiative is causing for auto dealers-turned-Republican candidates, including Tom Ganley (OH-13), Jim Renacci (OH-16), and Scott Rigell (VA-02).

CA-Lt. Gov: According to his latest round of internal polling, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom leads Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn by 47-26 in the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor.

AR-Sen: While offering a commencement address at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Michelle Obama gave a shout-out to all the Democratic bigwigs sharing the dais with her: Gov. Mike Beebe, his wife Ginger, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Sen. Mark Pryor and even state AG Bobby Dustin McDaniel. Everyone, that is, except for Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who was also on stage. Stay classy, Michelle.

KS-Sen: The not-particularly pleasant GOP race to succeed Sam Brownback has gotten even uglier, with Rep. Todd Tiahrt accusing frontrunner Rep. Jerry Moran of pulling “a John Kerry” flip-flop on tax cuts. Moran, leading in the polls, has largely been sticking to a Rose Garden strategy and refusing to respond to Tiahrt’s provocations.

NV-Sen: Sue Lowden’s mom must have taught her as a child that if you pick at a scab repeatedly, it will heal faster. That can be the only explanation for Lowden’s newest TV ad, in which she brings up the damn chicken business yet again!

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak now has a four-point lead over Arlen Specter in Muhlenberg’s tracking poll, 46-42. A day earlier, Sestak took his first-ever lead in public polling in the tracker. Also, here’s a good observation: Specter voted against Elana Kagan when she was nominated to be Solicitor General. Now that it looks like she’s going to be tapped for the Supreme Court, he’ll have to very publicly flip-flop on this one barely a week before the primary.

UT-Sen: As you probably saw by now, longtime Utah Sen. Bob Bennett was denied renomination at the GOP convention this past Saturday. Instead, businessman Tim Bridgewater and attorney Mike Lee will duke it out in a June 22nd primary. Lee seems to be the teabagger fave, as he immediately garnered Jim DeMint’s endorsement once he made it past the third and final round of voting.

Meanwhile, Bennett is still holding out the possibility of waging a write-in campaign – which is not out of the question given that Utahns in general like him a lot more than Republican convention delegates. My understanding, though, is that he could only run as a write-in in the general election, not the primary.

Anyhow, while Bennett’s never self-funded before (so far as I know), he is actually extremely wealthy, with assets potentially in excess of $30 million. If turnout is about 600K voters and a Dem can get a third of that, then Bennett only needs 200K to win a squeaker. On the flipside, John Cornyn is pledging to support the GOP nominee, and in modern times, I think only Strom Thurmond has gotten elected to the Senate via write-in. But nevermind all that – do it, Bob… for America!

FL-Gov: Surely by now you’ve heard about anti-gay activist George Rekers’ European escapades with a young man he hired from a site called Rentboy. If not, read this now. The story just got a lot better, though, with word that Florida AG Bill McCollum once paid Rekers at least $60,000 to serve as an expert witness for the state’s attempt to ban gay adoptions. Rekers’ testimony was rejected by the judge as not credible, and the ban was found unconstitutional. All in a day’s work!

KY-Gov: Kentucky’s gubernatorial seat isn’t up until 2011, but a trio of media outlets commissioned a poll from Research 2000 nonetheless. It finds Gov. Steve Beshear leading House Speaker Greg Stumbo in a hypothetical primary, 55-28. In the general election, it shows Beshear up 44-37 over GOP Ag. Comm’r Richie Farmer. Beshear’s job approval is 46-43 and he has $1.9 million in the bank.

NY-Gov: Ordinarily, you need 25% of the weighted delegate vote at a state convention to qualify for the ballot in New York. But because Steve Levy is not yet a registered Republican, GOP rules require him to get 50%. It sounds, though, like there may be some movement afoot to more or less knock that requirement back down to 25%.

CT-05: Some Dude Kie Westby is dropping out of the crowded GOP race to take on Rep. Chris Murphy. Westby endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri on his way out. Quite a few Republicans remain in this primary.

MD-04: State Del. Herman Taylor says he’s challenging Rep. Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary. It sounds like Taylor might be taking Edwards on from the right, saying she’s “out of touch with the business community” (those are the Maryland Gazette’s words, not necessarily his). Meanwhile, it sure sounds like Edwards herself has gone native: Despite the fact that she owes her seat to a primary challenge, she now says “it would be ‘very hard’ for her to support a primary challenger like herself,” according to The Nation. It never changes.

MI-09: Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski put out an internal poll showing him up 26-15 over businessman Paul Welday, with a whole lotta people undecided.

NY-23: Like some kind of Archie Comics love triangle involving Betty, Veronica, and Jughead, newcomer Matt Doheny is wooing the Club for Growth away from their former not-so-golden boy, Doug Hoffman. (The Club now says it’s “hard to say” whom they will endorse, if anyone.) Maybe toss in Moose, too, since the Conservative Party is making it extra-interesting by sticking with Hoffman.

PA-12: This ain’t good news for Team Blue: Dem Mark Critz reported having just $73K in the bank in his pre-election FEC report, while GOPer Tim Burns has $308K. I don’t feel too good about this one.

UT-02: In case you missed it, Dem Rep. Jim Matheson is being forced into his first-ever primary come June 22nd, thanks to the vote taken at the state’s Democratic convention this past weekend. Retired teacher Claudia Wright nabbed 45% of the delegates on Saturday, clearing the 40% hurdle to get her name on the primary ballot. The winner will take on ex-state Rep. Morgan Philpot, who has raised just $27K so far. Wright has raised $9K, while Matheson has taken in a million bucks and has $1.4 mil on hand.

WV-01: I was wondering when this was going to happen: The DCCC has finally sent some help to Rep. Alan Mollohan, who faces a stiff primary challenge from the right in the form of state Sen. Mike Oliverio. The election is tomorrow, though, so I wonder if, Coakley-style, this assistance is going to be too little, too late. While I carry no brief for Mollohan, he is almost certainly better than Oliverio, who is buddy-buddy with the state GOP.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the cat fud is flying fast and furious. Attorney Mac Warner says he won’t support ex-state Rep. David McKinley if he wins the nomination, claiming McKinley’s “gone way over the line in personal attacks and distortions of the truth.” (Welcome to politics, bub.) In general, the primary has been very negative, with much of the fire aimed at McKinley.

New Jersey: A New Jersey appellate court dinged Chris Christie’s attempt to unilaterally restrict campaign contributions by unions, saying that legislation would instead be required.

Polling: Tom Jensen, who has penned many dour but accurate notes about the rough shape Dems find themselves in this cycle, draws together some surprising threads and finds recent good polling news for Team Blue in five senate races.

UPDATE 7: So the final tally for the GOP senate nomination is, per Dave Catanese:

Tim Bridgewater: 57.2%

Mike Lee: 42.7%

Since Bridgewater failed to clear 60%, that means there wil be a primary on June 22nd, same as with UT-02 for the Dems.

UPDATE 6: WOW. Jim Matheson 55%, Claudia Wright 45%. There will be a primary.

UPDATE 5: It’s been very hard to get news out of the UT Dem convention, but I suggest following the #utdem hashtag on Twitter. It looks like results may be announced soon.

UPDATE 4: It’s official – Bob Bennett won’t make it to the third round of voting:

Tim Bridgewater: 37.42%

Mike Lee: 35.99%

Bob Bennett: 26.59%

Bennett picked up almost no votes after the first round. Between Lee and Bridgewater, I have no idea whom to root for, though.

UPDATE 3: Reid Wilson says Bennett will not advance to the third round. Mike Allen says he may run a write-in campaign.

UPDATE 2: So the top three candidates advance to the second round, meaning Bennett barely survives – for another hour or so. According to the timestamp on this post, second-round results are expected around 5:30pm Eastern.

Also, over at the Dem convention, it appears that no voting has taken place yet, but on Twitter, it sounds like there may be a surprising level of enthusiasm for Jim Matheson’s challenger, Claudia Wright. She needs 40% to force a primary.

UPDATE: The first round of results are in:

Lee 982 – 28.75%

Bridgewater 917 – 26.84%

Bennett 885 – 25.91%

Eagar 541 – 15.84%

Cook 49 – 1.43%

Fabiano 22 – .64%

Freidbaum 16 – .47%

Chiu 4 – .12%

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Today the Utah GOP will be having their statewide convention for the U.S. Senate nomination. The Salt Lake Tribue has this explanation of how it will unfold. Note that all times are Mountain Crazy Time:

Schedule reminder: Convention kicks off at 10 a.m., and the roughly 7-minute Senate speeches start at 10:45 a.m. They will speak in this order – Bridgewater, Bennett, Friedbaum, Fabiano, Cook, Chiu, Lee and Eagar. After that the first round,  balloting will commence; expect to start voting around 11:50 a.m. That brings us to the final three candidates.

The second round of balloting will come around 1:40 p.m. after the speeches for governor (who doesn’t want to hear what SuperDell has to say), and the three congressional districts (1st – Bishop vs. Ridgeway; 2nd – Philpot vs.Walter vs. Eliason; 3rd Chaffetz vs. nobody)

If a third round of balloting is necessary (count on it), that would take place after the discussion of platform changes and resolutions, estimated at 3 p.m., but hey, you know how these things get pushed back.

So the first round of voting should start just before 2pm Eastern.

Results: Trib | UT GOP | Twitter

Live video:

Any predictions, before voting starts?

P.S. Johnny Longtorso reminds us in comments that the UT Dems are also holding their convention today. The one thing to watch is whether Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-02) will get a primary challenge. Voting starts around 3:45pm Eastern.

FL-22: You stray, you pay. Marco Rubio strayed from the GOP reservation on Arizona’s new immigration law, and now ultra-rightist Allen West is attacking him for it. It will probably endear West even more to his base, but I note that the 22nd CD is 15% Hispanic (though undoubtedly some portion is Cuban).

PA-12 (PDF): Global Strategy Group (D) for Mark Critz (4/27-29, likely voters, mid-April in parens):

Mark Critz: 45 (41)

Tim Burns: 37 (38)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Former Providence city councilman David Segal is considering a run, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wants to back him. He would join former state Democratic Party Chairman William Lynch and current Providence Mayor David Cicilline in the race. Businessman Anthony Gemma says he is also “strongly considering” a bid.

VA-05: Virgil Goode, who briefly served in Congress as an independent (between his switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party) has abandoned the major parties once again. He says he’s joining the Constitution Party – though no word on whether he plans to run on that line for his old seat. However, Jeff Clark says he [Clark] has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent – but will only run if state Sen. Robert Hurt is the GOP nominee. It seems like local conservatives hate Hurt as much as we hate Lieberman.

UT-02: Retired school teacher Claudia Wright is planning to challenge Rep. Jim Matheson at the 2nd CD Democratic convention this Saturday, and says she thinks she can get the 40% she needs to make it on to the primary ballot. Wright principally cites Matheson’s healthcare vote as the reason for her run. While we just saw last night that unhappy liberals in North Carolina were willing to vote for no-names against two other Dems who voted nay on HCR (Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell), the stakes are a lot higher in UT-02, where it’s hard to imagine any Dem other than Matheson holding this seat.