Tag: KY-03

Kentucky has been turning the corner and getting back to its Democratic roots. We voted for Bill Clinton twice, but went through a spell where Republicans peeled off our House and Senate seats. That changed some when Ben Chandler lost his bid for Governor in 2003 and won one House seat. Our Democratic Attorney General at the time, Greg Stumbo then went on to expose the Republican Party in Kentucky for the corrupt machine it was, and John Yarmuth became a fresh pickup and one of the very best of the freshman class that won in 06.

Now this year we have a lot to be proud of in the Bluegrass state. We hold two of our House seats, and have excellent candidates fielded in three more. Hang out and check out some great Kentucky Democrats.

Anyone who has seen much of my blogging lately knows about the First District candidate Heather Ryan. This is my district and I live in Paducah and know Heather Ryan. This is her first run for office, but folks I am telling you she definately has the fire and fighting spirit that our party simply needs in the Congress. She is young, energetic and quite simply put sharp as a tack.

She is a great speaker, as you can see for yourself:

When Democrats hear her, they support her. She gave a rousing speech to the Kentucky Democratic Party that I am still waiting for the video on. From what I heard, she brought down the house:

http://www.bluegrassroots.org/…

She doesn’t mind taking time for constituents, and Kentucky Progressive bloggers:

http://www.bluegrassroots.org/…

All this young lady needs is the resources to put this district on the map. She is very good at stretching existing funds and if she gets some resources she WILL force the Republicans to spend money here.

Please consider supporting her, a hard-working grassroots Democrat that shares our ideals and will fight for them:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

In the Second Congressional District we have David Boswell, and awesome Democratic Candidate for that seat. David has already had polling showing he is VERY competitive in this race:

In November, 2007, the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a survey asking people across the District who they would vote for if the Congressional election were between David Boswell and Ron Lewis. The results, released last December, found David favored in that match-up 44% to 34%, with only 4% interest in other candidates. Ron Lewis may have had his own reasons for choosing not to seek re-election, but this survey is an indication that the right Democrat — David Boswell — was already in a strong position to deny Lewis re-election.

http://www.davidboswell2008.com/

He sounds like my kind of Democrat:

There has never been a more important time than right now to have that kind of vision for us, and from us, in the U.S. Congress. Now is our time to join the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and turn the country away from the corporate mentality of Bush policies that have raised our gas prices, recessed our economy, and ruined our housing markets. The middle class sensibility of our cities and communities tells us we ought to be able to earn good pay for a good day’s labor, to afford health care when we need it, and promote ways to seek higher education. The example from our homes, families, and friendships can again inspire our nation and the world around it. We know how important protecting freedom is, we honor all those who serve in defending us. We also believe the United States has the diplomatic potential to support sibling democracies without policing the world, or becoming Big Brother at home.

http://www.davidboswell2008.com/

Go to David’s site and support a great Democrat!!

The Democrat in Kentucky’s Third District should need little introduction. John Yarmuth was our only pickup in 06 and is facing a rematch against Anne Northup. A Kentucky Republican Party sweetheart, she will be well funded.

All you have to do is google Yarmuth’s voting record and you will see why we need to keep him in the Congress better than I can describe. He is one of the shining stars of that Freshman Class for our party. Stop by his site, and be sure to support John Yarmuth!!:

http://www.yarmuthforcongress….

Lastly, in Kentucky’s Fourth District we have Dr. Michael Kelley. He is a Democrat we can be proud to stand up for too:

As a voter and taxpayer, Michael Kelley is opposed to the continuing Republican efforts to pour more American blood and treasure into the desert sands of the Middle East. Our military has performed incredibly well in extremely challenging circumstances, having been thrust into war without adequate equipment or justification. But unless the Shiite and Sunni factions are willing to put aside hundreds of years of division and bloodshed, our troops will continue to be caught in the middle. It is time to stop forcing American troops into the quagmire in Iraq. It is time to compel the Iraqis into political accommodation by bringing our troops home now.

As a country doctor, Doc Kelley is deeply concerned about our flawed healthcare system. His commonsense ideas for saving American taxpayers and consumers billions of dollars are a good start to fixing our broken system which currently leaves millions of Americans without hope.

Michael Kelley believes that politicians in D.C. will constantly be pressured to make unethical decisions under our current, morally bankrupt campaign finance system. His ideas for campaign finance reform would change our government fundamentally because our representatives would belong to the people – not to the special interests.

Go here to watch his videos and hear him in his own words:

http://www.kelley08.com/media….

Go here to support him:

https://secure.actblue.com/con…

With the field of fine candidates that have cropped up in Kentucky all we need are the resources to help in expanding our Congressional majorities by a lot. Don’t forget the fine Kentucky candidates on the frontlines of the fight for a new Congress!!

Best wishes everyone!!

 

SurveyUSA (6/6-8, likely voters):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 57

Anne Northup (R): 40

(MoE: ±3.9%)

There has been some nervousness recently surrounding Yarmuth’s re-election prospects, given Northup’s early fundraising strength and Barack Obama’s weaknesses in Kentucky (even though he actually beat Clinton in KY-03). These poll numbers should certainly calm the nerves a bit.

While Yarmuth should never underestimate Northup’s abilities, this is a reassuring sign that the ground has indeed shifted in Louisville, where Northup has built a long resume of crushing Democratic hopes cycle after cycle until her defeat in 2006.

UPDATE: Like clockwork, the Northup campaign has released their own internal poll showing a closer race. Voter/Consumer Research (6/4-5 & 6/8, likely voters):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 51

Anne Northup (R): 43

(MoE: ±5%)

The pollster himself acknowledges that even this is “not great news” for Northup, but sounds a predictable note of optimism for her chances despite a national environment that “gotten substantially worse for Republicans since the beginning of the year”.

I like both polls.

Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.

More after the fold…

Full article from cq politics:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.

• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.

• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.

• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.

• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.

• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.

• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.

• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.

• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.

• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.

• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.

It looks as if former Rep. Ann Northup who held the strongly Democratic KY-03 from 1996 until she was defeated by Yarmuth in 2006, may run again now that the GOP’s top recruit, federal prosecutor Erwin Roberts has dropped out of the race.  http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

I am skeptical of Northup’s ability to win this district after her amazing 13% loss to the scandal tarred Ernie Fletcher in the gubernatorial primary.  Add to that the fact that even after she represented the district for a decade, a partisan NRCC poll still has her trailing Yarmuth 47%-49%, which means after partisan adjustments she probably trails 43%-53% in reality.  http://www.campaigndiaries.com/  She also doesn’t get the usual incumbent rule since she held the district as recently as two years ago.  

I should also point out that this is the only district in the state that John Kerry managed to carry in 2004 and this is even more impressive since he was killed statewide by 21%.  Any Democratic nominee would carry this district in 2008 and that will help Yarmuth greatly since incumbents usually run ahead of their national ticket.  Still, I would continue to watch this race.  If Northup gets in, what looked like an easy hold gets much tougher.  

Pinch me, I think I’m dreaming (likely voters, Oct. 16-18 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D): 52 (48)

Anne Northup (R): 44 (47)

MoE: ±4%

Amazing.  Northup has held back strong Democratic challengers for a decade in this Louisville district that leans Democratic (she most recently scored 60% of the vote in 2004), and many prognosticators were quick to write off Yarmuth’s chances, figuring that his resume of being an alt-weekly publisher would be an easy target for Northup to pummel.  But by all indications, Yarmuth has run a scrappy, smart campaign and has been tightening the contest over the last two months.  If he can do what other Democrats have failed to do in cycles past, November 7 is going to be a big night.