Tag: KY-03

Last night was a lot of fun, but with over two dozen races worth watching, it’s easy to lose track of some of those important but lesser-heralded contests while getting mesmerized by some of the more marquee races that went down last night. Let’s do a brief re-cap of everything:

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen: The big story out of Arkansas is Bill Halter’s strong finish in the Democratic Senate primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln ultimately ended the night with a 45-43 result, which was good enough to send this race to a runoff on June 8. Everyone is aflutter that Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison managed to scoop up 13% of the vote, a higher mark than the polls expected. While it might be tempting to speculate that Morrison’s votes will flock to the more right-wing choice in the runoff (Lincoln), I don’t really think that’s how it works. I’d expect Halter to pick up a share of these voters based purely on anti-incumbent spite, while others may simply crawl back into the woodwork, dissatisfied with both options. And for what it’s worth, Morrison says that he won’t be supporting either Dem in the runoff (or the general), and guesses that his supporters will split evenly between the two of them.

  On the Republican side, GOP Rep. John Boozman cleared the primary with an easy 53% of the vote over a very fractured Republican field. While Boozman gets the luxury of extra time to refill his war chest, it’s not the biggest loss in the world for Dems — we’re only talking about three weeks worth of time here.

• AR-01: Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge is headed to a runoff against Marion Berry’s former Chief of Staff Chad Causey for the Democratic nomination here. Wooldridge, a fairly conservative fellow whom Bill Halter beat in a runoff for the Democratic Lt. Governor nod in 2006, came in first with 39% of the vote. Causey, who was endorsed by Berry and some labor groups, scored 27%. The winner of the runoff will face Republican radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, who easily beat Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao, by a 73-27 margin.
• AR-02: Republicans nominated ex-US Attorney and Rove acolyte Tim Griffin over teabagging restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 62-38 margin, while Democrats sent state Sen. Joyce Elliott, a liberal African-American, to a runoff against state House Speaker Robbie Wills. Elliott won 40% of the vote to 28% for Wills. Departing Dem Rep. Vic Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, came in third with 19%.
• AR-03: In a district that is essentially the home base of Republican muscle in Arkansas, it’s too bad ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay didn’t manage to force himself into the runoff, if only to give us more opportunities to namedrop him. Instead, Republicans chose Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (31%) and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe (13%) to advance to the runoff out of a very crowded field.

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen: In a night of amazing finishes, this one caused a lot of bubbly to be spilled in the SSP comments section. While Rand Paul sleepwalked to a 59-35 win over Trey Grayson, Attorney General Jack Conway executed a remarkable surge in the remaining weeks of the campaign, escaping a double-digit deficit to beat Dan Mongiardo by 44-43 for the Democratic nomination. Perhaps surprisingly, though, Mongiardo is holding out for a recanvass of the vote before he concedes. A recount will unlikely do much good for Dr. Dan, especially when you consider that there are still 13 precincts left to count in Conway-loving Jefferson County.

  Also, if this is any indication of Rand Paul’s campaign skills — hosting his victory party at an exclusive country club and then defending the choice on Good Morning America as non-elitist… because Tiger Woods brought golf to “the city youth” — this should be a pretty fun campaign.

• KY-03: Here’s another mild surprise. Despite a financial disadvantage, Air Force vet Todd Lally crushed Pizza Hut franchise baron and presumed front-runner Jeff Reetz by a 52-17 margin for the Republican nod to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Reetz, in fact, did so poorly that he finished in third — right behind real estate investor Larry Hausman, who took 25% of the vote.
• KY-06: We initially expected retired coal executive Mike Templeman to give attorney Andy Barr a run for his money for the GOP nod to take on Democratic fixture Ben Chandler, but this race was nothing short of a blow-out. Barr dispatched Templeman by a 64-10 spread.

Oregon:

• In Oregon, surprises were few and far between. Polling had given ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber a big edge over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury going into the Democratic primary, and that was borne out by Kitzhaber’s 66-30 win. Although Bradbury was rhetorically running to Kitzhaber’s left, progressives don’t need to be disappointed by the result; Kitzhaber’s track record is as a health care innovator, and he’s clearly eager to push forward on that now that he has a reliably Democratic legislature and the state-level flexibility afforded by the new HCR law. Kitzhaber faces off against Republican victor Chris Dudley, who won with 40% of the vote in a crowded GOP field (which is still less than his 46% career free throw average in the NBA). Dudley fought off a late surge from Allen Alley, who finished at 32%, after trying to make inroads with the conservative wing once Dudley staked out the same moderate turf where Alley had hoped to compete.

  In the Senate race, Dem incumbent Ron Wyden picked up 90% of the vote; he faces a not-very-competitive race against Republican law professor Jim Huffman, the best known out of seven nobodies, who prevailed with 42%. The NRCC got its desired candidates in the two House districts where it’s hoping to compete this year. State Rep. Scott Bruun had a solid performance in OR-05, winning with 62%, while Rob Cornilles was a bit more underwhelming, winning with 41% against a teabagger-clogged field in OR-01. (Crisitunity)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen: You gotta hand it to Joey Sestak. After months of stagnating in the polls and storing his powder safely in airtight Ziploc containers, he used some well-timed late hits to topple Arlen Specter by 54-46 in the Democratic primary. Given that Sestak has actually been performing more competitively than Specter against Republican Pat Toomey (who won his primary over Peg Lutsik by 63 points), this is probably good news over all for team blue.
• PA-Gov: In the end, it wasn’t close. Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato beat state Auditor Jack Wagner by 45-24 for the Democratic gubernatorial nod. Two Philly-area candidates, state Senator (and school voucher advocate) Anthony Williams and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel combined for 31% of the vote. Onorato faces a bigger challenge now in defeating Republican AG Tom Corbett. Corbett beat his no-name opposition with 69% of the vote.
• PA-03: Auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly narrowly beat well-funded retired businessman Paul Huber by 28-26. Kelly will be the Republican nominee against frosh Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper this fall.
• PA-04: Politics ain’t beanbag, and Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan found that out the hard way last night. Expected to easily clinch the Republican nomination against Democrat Jason Altmire by beltway progs when she entered the race, her ineptitude on the campaign trail resulted in attorney Keith Rothfus pasting her by 33%. Better luck next time, Mary Beth!
• PA-06: In a night that gave us some pretty good news all around, this one is particularly special for SSP. Democratic physician Manan Trivedi upset rich guy Doug Pike, who had donated over $1 million of his own money to his campaign effort, by a 51-49 spread. It looks like Pike still hasn’t conceded, but he’ll have to face the truth sooner rather than later. And here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice that I’ll give to anyone who’s interested in running for Congress in the future: You Don’t Mess With The Project.
• PA-10: Another ex-Bush era US Attorney, Tom Marino, was touted as a strong recruit who’d have little difficulty winning his party’s nomination against Democrat Chris Carney. Things got a little dicey last night, but Marino did end up succeeding where Mary Beth Buchanan failed. Marino won the nod with a 41% plurality over chiropractor David Madeira and Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk.
• PA-11: If there’s one race where things didn’t really work out for Democrats, it’s this one. Crusty incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat a divided Democratic primary field with only 49% of the vote — one of the weakest performances we’ve seen by an incumbent House member this cycle. That probably doesn’t bode well for the general election, where Kanjorski will face off with Lou Barletta for the third time.
• PA-12: Wow. After all the Republican swagger, did anyone honestly expect Democrat Mark Critz to beat Republican Tim Burns by 53-45 in the special election to replace John Murtha? Certainly Republicans appeared stunned, because I don’t think they would have tried to spin yarns like this one if they weren’t reeling from the result:
  

  “Republican Tim Burns ran an excellent campaign in one of the bluest of congressional districts,” Mr. Steele said in a statement Tuesday night. “Despite the fact that Pennsylvania’s 12th District has been a Democratic stronghold for more than 30 years and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, Republican Tim Burns pushed his Democratic opponent to the wire.”

  “One of the bluest” CDs? Shah! Right! Obviously Mikey was not reading from the same hymnbook as ex-Rep. Tom Davis:

  Tom Davis, a former Republican House member and top party campaign strategist, saw the win by Democrat Mark Critz, a former aide to Mr. Murtha, over Republican Tim Burns as a serious blow to the Republican claim to be within reach of the 40 seats needed to recapture the House.

  “If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Mr. Davis, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong. “It would be a huge upset not to win this seat.”

  Or Charlie Cook, for that matter, from late April:

  Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters’ attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP’s advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.

  Meanwhile, Burns managed to win his primary over direct mail scammer Bill Russell by 57-43, which means he gets the pleasure of facing Critz again in November. It’s pretty rare for the loser of a special election to win the rematch in the next general election. The last example of such a casualty, that I can come up with, was half-term Dem Rep. Peter Barca, who won a special election against Republican Mark Neumann in 1993. Neumann came back to beat Barca in ’94. Otherwise, this type of situation is pretty rare.

• PA-17: Democrat Tim Holden seemed to aggravate the base of his party with his vote against HCR, resulting in only a 65% win last night over his no-money primary challenger, Sheila Dow-Ford. On the Republican side, state Sen. Dave Argall only managed to beat veteran Frank Ryan by 1.4%.
• PA-19: Despite speculation that semi-sane GOP Rep. Todd Platts was endangering himself by openly seeking an appointment from Barack Obama to lead the Government Accountability Office, Platts dispatched teabagging challenger Mike Smeltzer by a 70-30 margin.

Maybe we can’t quite call it the “Super Tuesday” of congressional primary days, but based on the gravity of some of the races that will be decided this week, it wouldn’t be far off the mark. Two Democratic incumbent Senators are embroiled in stiff primary fights, and the outcome of both party primaries in Kentucky’s Senate race will weigh heavily on the competitiveness of that seat in November. All told, there are 28 elections worth watching today (by our count), with the promise of run-offs in Arkansas on June 8 if no candidate achieves a majority of the vote in their respective races. Also on tap for the weekend is the special election to replace Dem Rep. Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii’s 1st District, which is shaping up to be a disaster of Abercrombie’s making.

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen (D): Polling seems to indicate that the odds of Bill Halter coming out ahead of two-term incumbent Blanche Lincoln as falling somewhere between slim and none, but the presence of Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison on the Democratic ticket may draw enough votes away from Lincoln to force a runoff in June. Outside groups have already spent millions on this race; labor has lined solidly behind Halter while Chamber of Commerce-types have funneled significant resources behind Lincoln, telling you everything you need to know about the ideological fault lines of this primary battle. If a runoff becomes a reality, expect this race to find yet another gear.
• AR-Sen (R): Again, first place isn’t at all in question here. GOP Rep. John Boozman’s superior name recognition has given him a big edge on the other seven dwarves of the GOP field. What is at stake, though, is whether or not Boozman (like Lincoln) can avoid a resource-draining runoff, and if not, which Republican contender will advance to the next round along with him. Boozman has stayed close to the 50% mark in recent polling, with ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (the GOP’s ’04 nominee against Lincoln) and state Sen. Gilbert Baker clawing for second place.
• AR-01 (D): With Marion Berry hitting the exits, four Dems have lined up to replace him, making a runoff a safe bet. Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, a pretty conservative dude who lost a runoff for Lt. Governor in 2006 to Bill Halter, is seen as the front-runner — a notion confirmed by the lone poll we’ve seen of this race. However, Berry’s ex-Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, leads the money race, and state Sen. Steve Bryles has raised six figures, too. State Rep. David Cook, who is probably the most liberal choice in this race (he favors the public option, according to his campaign site) is also the least well-funded, pulling in just $54,000 through the end of April.
• AR-01 (R): Republicans made a lot of noise about stealing Berry’s seat after he announced his retirement decision, but that sense of optimism didn’t result in an upgrade in terms of candidate recruitment. Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford started his race off slowly, but has begun to pick up the pace after Berry hit the exits, and that may be enough to make this a very competitive contest in November. The only candidate to join him the Republican primary is Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao. Smith has proven to be something of a dud, only raising $67K for her primary against Crawford.
• AR-02 (D): The primary to replace retiring Rep. Rick Snyder is a pretty interesting one, with state House Speaker Robbie Wills seemingly leading the way in terms of November electability and insider connections, and state Sen. Joyce Elliott enjoying the support of the district’s liberal base. Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, is also in the race and has raised nearly as much as Wills, so his presence can’t be overlooked, either. The Dem field is rounded out by former Clinton School of Public Service programming director Patrick Kennedy and assistant Attorney General John Adams, both of whom have not raised much money are not expected to win a significant share of the vote.
• AR-02 (R): Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin is expected to win this primary pretty easily, seeing as how he’s been out-raising Little Rock restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 6-to-1 margin. Wallace, however, tied Griffin at 20-20 in an early April poll of the race, and enjoys the backing of Mike Huckabee.
• AR-03 (R): Good luck sorting through this orgy of teabaggery. A whopping eight Republicans are duking it out for the right to succeed John Boozman in the House, pretty much guaranteeing that this sucker is going to a runoff in June. That early April Talk Business poll suggested that we’re looking at a three-way race between state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, and the aptly-named ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay, but ex-DEA official Steve Lowry, businessman Kurt Maddox, and ex-state Rep. Doug Matayo could also compete.

Hawaii:

• HI-01 (Special): There’s not a whole lot that need be said about this crazy-ass jungle election, where Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou looks poised to steal this seat. He of course faces off against state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case, who used to represent the state’s other CD. The one final point I do want to make is that I blame this all on Neil Abercrombie. Had he not resigned unexpectedly, we’d never have wound up on this situation. I can appreciate that campaigning for the governorship of Hawaii when you are needed in D.C. can be quite a tiring task, especially for a septuagenarian. But Abercrombie knew he wanted to run long ago. He should either have stuck out his term, or not have stood for re-election in 2008. (DavidNYC)

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen (D): The Big One. While the tradmed seems to neglect this race in favor of seemingly shinier objects like Arlen Specter’s primary in Pennsylvania or Rand Paul’s surprising strength among Kentucky Republicans, the Democratic primary is the true race to watch out of Kentucky tonight. 2004 nominee and current Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo had enjoyed a consistent and seemingly impenetrable lead against state AG Jack Conway, the candidate with less baggage to exploit in the general election. However, recent polls have suggested that Conway is coming on strong in the home stretch of this campaign, perhaps making the race a dead heat. Research 2000 had Conway pulling within three points while SUSA only had Conway down by one. This one should be tight.
• KY-Sen (R): This one shouldn’t be tight. You know things are bad when Trey Grayson is whining like a DUMBocrat about Fox News’ apparent preferential treatment of Rand Paul. Despite the best efforts of Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney, it looks like the teabaggers are poised to make a major victory tonight, as Paul leads by 18 points in the latest poll of this race. A Paul win today will make this a fascinating race in the fall — one that could potentially yield some major GOP headaches.
• KY-03 (R): Republicans are truly leaving no stone unturned in their quest to take back the House, and have a couple of warm bodies to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Jeffrey Reetz, some guy who owns 25 Pizza Hut franchises, is facing off against Air Force vet Todd Lally. Both of these guys have raised six figures for their campaigns.
• KY-06 (R): After rocking his GOP opponent by 30 points in 2008, Ben Chandler has attracted a pack of mouth-breathers this time around, two of whom are somewhat well-funded. Attorney Andy Barr has been in the race the longest, and has raised over $400K. Retired coal executive Mike Templeman is his chief competition, while four other Republicans have only managed to raise chump change for the primary and are expected to be non-factors tonight.

Oregon:

• OR-Gov (D): The main story on May 18 in Oregon may be the 30th anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, as there’s been little activity that would qualify as volcanic in either party’s open seat gubernatorial primary. The Democratic primary has been a low-key and civil contest between two long-time friends, former Governor John Kitzhaber (termed out after two terms in 2002, but angling for a return) and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Bradbury has big endorsers in his corner (Al Gore, Howard Dean) and gotten local progressives revved up by running to Kitzhaber’s left, but polling gives a wide edge to Kitz. (Crisitunity)
• OR-Gov (R): After bigger names like Greg Walden and Jason Atkinson passed, the question in the GOP primary was whether anybody other than Allen Alley, a former high-tech CEO who lost the 2008 Treasurer race, was going to show up at all. Eventually Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trail Blazers center from the 1990s, showed up and immediately assumed front-runner status simply by virtue of name rec and money. Most polling has given a lead to Dudley, but Alley seems to be closing in on him, thanks in part to Dudley’s (very large) empty-suit-ishness. Both are from the moderate end of the GOP; the more conservative options, ex-state Sen. John Lim and anti-tax initiative grifter Bill Sizemore, are there mostly to provide comic relief. (C)
• OR-01 (R): Sports industry consultant Rob Cornilles seems to have piqued the NRCC’s interest, as they’ve touted him as the man to take down Democratic Rep. David Wu in this D+8 suburban district. Before he can tackle Wu, though, he has to survive the GOP primary. Stephan Brodhead attracted some attention with his large bankroll, but SurveyUSA‘s poll of the primary indicates the main rival to Cornilles is teabagging mortgage broker John Kuzmanich. (C)
• OR-05 (R): Similarly, the NRCC has its favorite pony in the 5th: state Rep. Scott Bruun, a moderate from the wealthy suburban portion of this somewhat rural district. There was some brief hubbub that Bruun was vulnerable to a challenge from Tea Party-aligned retired businessman Fred Thompson (no, not that Fred Thompson), but SurveyUSA recently found that Bruun is on track to nail down the nomination. (C)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen (D): The big kahuna. For a long time, a lot of observers (myself included) wondered when – or even if – Rep. Joe Sestak would go on the attack against the party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. Well, Sestak’s certainly proved all the doubters very wrong. Polls are as tight as can be, and while he may not pull it off in the end, Sestak seems to have timed things perfectly. This should be quite the barnburner. (D)
• PA-Gov (D): A funny thing happened on the way to the primary: After a year of desultory polling showing pretty much all candidates in the teens and single digits, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato completely pulled away from the pack. According to Pollster’s trendlines, Jack Wagner, Anthony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel are all still mired in nowheresville, so unless a lot of polling is very wrong, Onorato will be the Dem gubernatorial nominee. (D)
• PA-03 (R): There’s a crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, but only two dudes have shown serious scratch – and both because they’re self-funders: retired businessman Paul Huber, who raised $200K and loaned himself another $300K, and auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly, who lent himself $165K on top of $80K in individual contributions. Other wannabes include Cochranton insurance agent Steven Fisher, teabagger Clayton Grabb, physician Martha Moore, and Some Dude Ed Franz, who have all raised about $30K or less. Both Huber and Kelly have been on the air with TV advertisements. A big question is whether Huber’s fundraising edge will outweigh the fact that he was a registered Democrat for 33 years – and only switched parties in 2008. (D)
• PA-04 (R): When Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (one of the names that kept cropping up in the US Attorney firings scandal) got into the race, Beltway pundits seemed to think the GOP primary would be a mere formality for her before posing a strong challenge to Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in this R+6 district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. They didn’t count on one thing: Buchanan’s apparent ineptitude at jumping from legal practice to electoral politics. We don’t have any polls to go by, but her anti-establishment opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus has outraised her and is certainly making fewer unforced errors. (C)
• PA-06 (D): This race pits an SSP fave, physician and veteran Manan Trivedi, against someone we simply aren’t very fond of, newspaper publisher Doug Pike. But putting aside our personal preferences, what’s going to happen here? It’s hard to say, especially since we haven’t seen any polls. Pike, thanks to massive donations from himself totaling more than a million dollars, has a big money edge. He’s also gotten his share of labor endorsements, though Trivedi has scored some of his own, as well as the backing of some key county committees. I’m rooting for Trivedi, to be sure, but I think he has an uphill fight against Pike’s bucks. (D)
• PA-10 (R): Here’s another district where the GOP thought a former US Attorney would be just what the doctor ordered, and they didn’t quite get what they thought. Tom Marino was their hyped pick for the race, but questions about Marino’s relationship with sketchy developer Louis DeNaples have loomed large over his campaign. Marino’s fundraising has been subpar as well; what is likely to help him pull it out in the primary is that his anti-establishment opposition is split, with Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk his most prominent foe. (C)
• PA-11 (D): Even though there’s a long-long-time Democratic incumbent here, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the primary is on the Democratic side, rather than for the GOP (where 2008 opponent Lou Barletta is on tap for a rematch). Up-and-coming Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien is taking on Kanjorski. While he has only a fraction of Kanjorski’s money, he’s trying to outhustle the crusty Kanjorski on the ground, and also making electability arguments about the incumbent, who barely beat Barletta in the much-more favorable 2008. Without any polling, it’s hard to guess whether we’re looking at a WV-01-style unplanned retirement for Kanjorski. (C)
• PA-12 (Special): This, by rights, should be the main event tonight, as it’s the only Democrat vs. Republican matchup anywhere. It has all the makings of a dead heat, not only in terms of polling (most recently a 1-point lead for Republican Tim Burns over Democrat Mark Critz, according to PPP), but also the lay of the land. It’s an historically Democratic district with a huge registration advantage, but it’s trending in the Republican direction as district’s aged population gets its marching orders from Fox News instead of the union hall now. Much has been made of how this R+1 district was the nation’s only one to go from backing Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008. Critz’s close ties to John Murtha, and the fact that the special coincides with the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary, may help Dems win the day, though. (C)
• PA-12 (D/R): The regularly scheduled primary elections in the 12th for November are also on the same day as the special. While it’s likely that, whatever the special election outcome, Mark Critz and Tim Burns will be facing each other again in the general, that’s not guaranteed. Critz is likely to beat Ryan Bucchanieri on the Dem side, but Burns is facing a tough challenge from Bill Russell and leading only narrowly according to a recent Susquehanna poll. Russell, who was passed over by the state party for the nomination, was the 2008 candidate; he’s best known as frontman for direct-mail scammers BaseConnect, and as such, has had enough money for TV ads. Could we see a Neil Abercrombie-type result where Burns wins a special and loses a primary on the same day? (C)
• PA-17 (D/R): Most observers expect November to be a matchup of long-time incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, and top-tier-ish GOP recruit state Sen. David Argall. Both, however, have primaries to get through first. Holden faces Democratic activist Sheila Dow-Ford, who’s attacking him over his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, Argall (vulnerable over the issue of legislative pay raises) is barely keeping his head above water against fractured opposition, led by veteran Frank Ryan, who’s had some surprising fundraising success. (C)
• PA-19 (R): This has the potential to be a surprise: Rep. Todd Platts is an unusually moderate Republican given the R+12 lean of this rural district, and he’s also painted a target on his own back by publicly expressing interest on getting out of that job and moving over to head the Government Accountability Office instead. Opponent Mike Smeltzer is hoping to use that as a basis for giving Platts a good teabagging. (C)

CA-Sen: No one does weird-ass like Carly Fiorina, who has another web video out that hails from the land of the bizarre.

CO-Sen: Seventh CD Rep. Ed Perlmutter has endorsed Sen. Michael Bennet over Andrew Romanoff in the Dem primary.

FL-Sen: It looks like Marco Rubio is finally starting to come in for some serious scrutiny. The St. Pete Times has a lengthy examination of the corporate money that has flowed Rubio’s way, and the irregularities which have riddled his campaign finance reports.

IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias says he’s going to return all campaign contributions from, as Politico puts it, “accused bank fraudster Nick Giannis and his family.”

IN-Sen: Ah, this is good. Dan Coats is trying to run as hard as he can against the bailout… but back in 2008, he was lobbying the government on behalf of a hedge fund which owned 80% of Chrysler – a huge recipient of bailout funds. (He didn’t do a very good job, it seems, considering that the fund, Cerberus, has its equity stake wiped out.) As Texas Dem astutely noted the moment Coats rumors started flying, “Usually retired senators get rich in some unseemly way that makes them unelectable in the future.” Sure looks like the case here.

NY-Sen-B: I hope all those Democrats who supported Mike Bloomberg over the years are happy: The NYT has an in-depth look at Bloombo’s hostility to Kirsten Gillibrand, and all the candidates he has tried to push into running against her. The latest is his own girlfriend, Diana Taylor. The Times fails to find any rational reason for why His Bloominess has chugged so much haterade, but devtob points out that they ignored a key item: Bloombo was a big backer of Caroline Kennedy, who of course was snubbed in favor of Gillibrand.

RI-Sen: Don’t look to retiring Dem Rep. Patrick Kennedy to share any of his spoils with the DCCC. Calling his decision not to seek another term in the House more of a “sabbatical” than a retirement, Kennedy says he plans to transfer his $500K campaign purse into an interest-bearing account, just in case he should need it for a Senate campaign someday. This is total bullshit. (Thanks to SSPer Andrew for this one.) (JL)

ID-Gov: Dem Keith Allred has made it official. Allred, a former Harvard professor, had spent five years running a non-partisan “citizens group” called The Common Interest which he left to pursue a gubernatorial run.

MI-Gov: Virg Bernero locked down another big union endorsement: the AFL-CIO took a vote, and it was “overwhelming” (their words) in Bernero’s favor. The United Auto Workers union, itself a member of the AFL-CIO, had already gotten behind Bernero, but now the entire umbrella organization (which also includes AFSCME, IBEW and AFT) is doing so. Bernero’s been running exactly the sort of populist campaign his supporters would have hoped, lately proposing that Michigan establish a state-run bank, modeled after the Bank of North Dakota.

NM-Gov: Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez won the support of 47% of the delegates at the state GOP convention this past weekend, while former NM Republican Party chair Allen Weh pulled in 26%. Pete Domenici, Jr. took less than 5%, but still plans to file petitions to get on the ballot. Because Martinez and Weh got over 20%, they only have to file half as many signatures, but as Heath Haussamen points out, no candidate who hasn’t scored 20% at the convention has ever come back to win the nomination.

OH-Gov: A voluminous auditor’s report on the demise of Lehman Brothers was published last week, documenting all of the company’s shady financial practices which led to its doom. Why does this matter to the Ohio governor’s race? John Kasich was a managing partner at Lehman for several years, right up until the bitter end in 2008. Ted Strickland is putting some pointed questions to Kasich, whose response so far has been extremely feeble.

FL-08: Sarah Palin’s gotten mixed up in the race to take on Rep. Alan Grayson, firing some broadsides at the Democrat during a recent trip to Orlando. Grayson did not let this challenge go unanswered.

KY-03: Tacked on to a Louisville mayoral poll, SUSA included a sort of unusually-worded question about Dem Rep. John Yarmuth’s re-elects. They asked voters if they would vote for or against Yarmuth “no matter who else is on the ballot,” with a not sure “until I know who else is on the ballot” option. Yarmuth scored 27-23-48. It still seems that Yarmuth’s only challenger so far is a dude who owns a bunch of Pizza Huts.

NY-14: EMILY’s List has finally done something right: They’re endorsing Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a longtime advocate for women’s issues, in her primary fight against Some Dude Reshma Saujani.

NY-23: After months of sounding pretty serious about a bid, state Assemblyman Will Barclay has decided to pass on a race against Dem Rep. Bill Owens. Barclay’s exit greatly improves the chances of Club For Growth nutter Doug Hoffman in the GOP primary, where his main rival now appears to be investment banker Matt Doheny, who lost the special election nomination to Dede Scozzafava last fall. (JL)

OK-05: The Republican primary to succeed Mary Fallin in the House just gets bigger and bigger. State Rep. Shane Jett is now the sixth candidate in a field that includes state Rep. Mike Thompson, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, and Some Other Dudes. (JL)

IL-Lt. Gov: The 38 members of the IL Dem central committee will hold interviews with prospective candidates around the state next week and then pick a replacement Lt. Gov. nominee on March 27.

• Election results: There was a grab-bag of southern state runoffs and special elections last night; the main event was the Atlanta mayor’s race. It looks like Democratic African-American ex-state Sen. Kasim Reed defeated self-proclaimed-independent white city councilor Mary Norwood, but the margin is only around 620 votes (out of 83,000 cast). Reed has declared victory, but Norwood is talking recount.

There were also four legislative runoffs in Georgia; the only one that wasn’t an intra-party affair was in HD-141 (a previously Dem-held seat) where independent Rusty Kidd easily beat Democrat Russell Black. Kidd is staying mum on which party he’ll caucus with, although he’s the son of a prominent long-time Democratic legislator (Culver Kidd) and a stem-cell-research supporter. In HD-58 in Atlanta, community organizer Simone Bell becomes the first LGBT African-American elected to Georgia’s legislature. And in Tennessee, Republican state Rep. Brian Kelsey was elected easily in the vacant SD-31 in heavily Republican Memphis suburbs; he takes over for GOPer Paul Stanley, who resigned in disgrace after a sex scandal.

• IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is up with the first TV ad in the fast-approaching Senate primary. Hoffman lacks name rec, but uses the ad to highlight his corruption-fighting past (and take some implicit hits at Alexi Giannoulias’s banking background).

• NY-Sen-B: You may remember Michael Balboni, who was pried out of his Dem-leaning Long Island state Senate seat by Eliot Spitzer to become the state’s Homeland Security chief and paving the way for Democratic takeover of the state Senate. Now he’s reportedly considering a run against Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate, as the New York GOP starts casting its net wider for somebody.

• UT-Sen: A Deseret News poll has bad news for Bob Bennett, in the form of perilous re-elects: only 27% support his re-election, and 58% want someone new. Nevertheless, he has a big edge over the field of nobodies circling around him: he polls at 31%, with Democrat Sam Granato at 14, followed by a gaggle of right-wingers: Cherilyn Eagar at 5, Tim Bridgewater and Fred Lampropoulos at 4, Mike Lee at 3, and James Williams at 1. With the Republican nomination potentially to be decided at the state convention — dominated by hard-right activists — though, these numbers don’t help to project much of anything for next year.

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver’s campaign manager Andrew Roos is out, as Culver stares at double-digit deficits against ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. Culver mangled his Shakesperean shrug-off, saying it’s “much to do about nothing.”

• TX-Gov: Press releases are already going out saying that Houston mayor Bill White is announcing something big on Friday, and now leaks are confirming what most people have suspected, that he’s going to go ahead and jump into the Democratic field in the governor’s race.

• FL-10: Sorta-moderate GOP Rep. Bill Young has another challenger — this time from the right. Eric Forcade says he got interested in politics from participating in tea parties and the 9/12 movement. (In case you’re having trouble remembering where all these random teabagger primary challenges are popping up, Think Progress has a handy scorecard of all of them.)

• IL-10: Little-known rich guy Dick Green dipped into his self-provided funds and laid out $100K for a big TV ad buy, introducing himself to Republican voters in the 10th. While Democrat Julie Hamos already has hit the airwaves, Green beats out fellow GOPers Beth Coulson and Bob Dold.

• KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth may not exactly be intimidated by the first Republican to show up to go against him in Kentucky’s lone Dem-leaning district. Jeffrey Reetz has never run for office before, but he does own 25 Pizza Hut franchises.

• MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards, who got into office via primary challenge, is facing a big challenge of her own. Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey has formed an exploratory committee to go up against Edwards for the Democratic nod. Ivey worked as a senior congressional staffer in the 1980s and 1990s; although he expresses enthusiasm for moving the “progressive agenda forward,” he’s probably running at least a bit to the right of Edwards, one of the leftmost House members.

• MN-01: This marks the third entry to the field against Democratic Rep. Tim Walz in about one week’s time. Today, it’s Republican Jim Hagedorn, a former congressional staffer and a one-time blogger under the name “Mr. Conservative.” He joins ex-state Rep. Allen Quist and state Rep. Randy Demmer, although the party seems to still be watching what more moderate state Sen. Julie Rosen does.

• PA-11: Hazleton mayor and 2008 loser Lou Barletta is doing his best to stay in the news, announcing that he’ll make another announcement on Dec. 9 as to whether or not he’ll seek a third faceoff against Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski.

• TN-08, TN-Gov: In case you missed our late update last night, Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron got out of the governor’s race where he was something of a longshot, and into the now-open TN-08 field, where he’s probably the favorite to get the Democratic nod. (Although open seats are theoretically harder to defend, Herron’s long district presence and lack of ties to Washington could conceivably help him to perform better next year than long-time Beltway creature Tanner might have.) Party officials (and outgoing Rep. John Tanner too, although he declined to endorse anyone yet) are moving quickly to keep a contested primary from happening, although state Rep. Philip Pinion has also been publicly letting his interest be known. Also, in discussing his sudden retirement decision, Tanner claims he wasn’t scared off by the fundraising success of out-of-nowhere GOP challenger Stephen Fincher; he’d already been eyeing retirement and the challenge “got his competitive juices flowing” but finally decided to call it a career.

• UT-02: Morgan Philpot, a former Republican state Representative, is considering a race against Rep. Jim Matheson next year. Philpot is currently the state party’s vice-chair, so he would bring some insider backing to the race.

• NY-Comptroller (pdf): With all the sudden talk of recruiting NYC comptroller William Thompson onto the Cuomo “ticket” to wage a primary fight against current state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, it’s worth going back and noting that the most recent Siena poll from a few weeks ago actually polled this permutation. They found a 31-31 tie in the Clash of the Comptrollers. They also found that both would beat Republican John Faso in the general.

• TX-Comptroller: In fact, talking about comptrollers is so much fun I’m going to keep doing it. Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson, who couldn’t hold down dark-red TX-22 last year, says that’s he’s looking into next year’s comptroller’s race, which would bring top-tier Democratic talent to another statewide race in Texas.

• NY-St. Sen.: After a lot of optimistic predictions earlier in the day, the actual vote on gay marriage in the New York Senate today kind of fizzled. Eight Democrats voted against and no Republicans crossed the aisle, leaving it to go down 24-38. Ironically, Marist came out with a poll today showing public support in favor of gay marriage, 51-42.

• CA-St. Ass.: However, in the one-step-forward, one-step-back fight for LGBT equality, California looks like it’s poised to have its first-ever gay Assembly Speaker. Los Angeles Assemblyman John Perez apparently has the votes locked up to take over as Speaker from Karen Bass, who’s termed out.

• Nassau Co. Exec: Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi, who was down by 377 votes to Republican challenger Ed Mangano after a recount, decided to concede rather than pursue legal options. Suozzi, who’d be considered a likely AG candidate next year, says he’ll be back in politics but he can’t “imagine it would be anytime soon.”

• Mayors: It looks like a premature end of the line for Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon, who was just convicted of misdemeanor embezzlement for helping herself to $1,500 worth of gift cards that had been donated to give to poor families. Dixon is supposed to be suspended from office, but post-trial motions and a possible appeal may push that until later. City Council President Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is in line to succeed her.

• DGA: There’s new leadership at the Democratic Governor’s Association, as fast-rising Delaware governor Jack Markell (who’s been in office only for a year) takes over from Montana’s Brian Schweitzer. One of the DGA’s first orders of business as they prep for 2010: committing $1 million to the GOP Accountability Project, whose first ad target is Florida Republican candidate Bill McCollum.

(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven’t had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

AZ-01 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of “retiring” GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

AZ-08 (Giffords): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee’s support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP’s more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away… and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

CA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown’s second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown’s chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against ‘generic R’ in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, ‘generic R’ didn’t show up, and instead he found himself running against ‘conservative icon’ Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn’t bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he’s keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven’t gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he’s almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

FL-16 (Mahoney): Lean Republican to Likely Republican

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We’ll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I’d like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney’s back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I’m really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow “pushed” Lutrin out of the race.

This isn’t a third-world country. His family wasn’t threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that’s called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic – just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there’s no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

FL-24 (Feeney): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man’s land of “Lean Dem” would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do… he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait… what? That’s not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal… and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it’d be nearly impossible. (C)

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

ID-01 (Sali): Lean Republican to Tossup

Well, here we are – a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho’s first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He’s made a seat that’s supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we’ve explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He’s scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali’s antics and ineffectiveness, and he’s picked up endorsements from the region’s most important papers (see here and here). What’s more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

KY-03 (Yarmuth): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn’t just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it’s looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case – she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup’s fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn’t. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won’t be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

NY-24 (Arcuri): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

We’ve heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that’s been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

OH-15 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems’ single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy’s direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers’ task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

OH-18 (Space): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it’s 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That’s simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

SurveyUSA (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 57 (53)

Anne Northup (R): 41 (45)

(MoE: ±4%)

Anne… let it go.

Survey USA (9/5-7, likely voters, 7/18-20 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (53)

Anne Northup (R): 45 (43)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

In a poll taken in the brightest (or darkest?) moments of the Republican convention hazy afterglow, John Yarmuth is still holding his own in his rematch against Anne Northup in this Louisville-based D+2 district. As you’ll recall, Yarmuth defeated ten-year incumbent Northup in 2006. Northup went on to do herself no favors by losing the 2007 gubernatorial primary to the scandal-soiled Ernie Fletcher.

This has shaped up to be a big money race, with both Yarmuth and Northup being prolific fundraisers. Yarmuth still maintains a sizable cash edge, although he lost the 2Q race.

SSP rates this race as Lean Dem.

Well, the political season has gotten pretty hot in Kentucky. With a Senate seat, and four hotly contested House seats here, Democrats here are fired up. Despite what any poll has said to this point, all these races are winnable. We have fielded a surprisingly impressive lineup of candidates and we are ready to fight for them. Meeting some of the delegates, and Jennifer Moore, the KDP chairman has convinced me that our party is ready to fight.

Our Senate campaign is first and foremost. Living in Kentucky, I have seen the terrible Mitch McConnell ads. I will not grace Mitch McConnell with their prescense in my diary, but they should be easlily findable on YouTube.

For his part, Bruce Lunsford has been hitting back:

He also recieved a huge endorsement from a formal rival:

DENVER-Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler of Kentucky’s 6th District officially endorsed Bruce Lunsford in his race for U.S. Senate against Mitch McConnell. Chandler made the announcement this morning during a Kentucky Delegation breakfast at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

“I am delighted that Ben has publicly expressed the support that he’s been expressing to me privately throughout the year,” said Lunsford, who attended the breakfast. “I’m thrilled to have Ben’s endorsement, and very grateful for it. Ben and I are united in the fight to put an end to the Bush-McConnell policies that have damaged Kentucky and the nation this decade. For many years, Ben Chandler has been an important leader in Kentucky, and I know Mitch McConnell and George W. Bush realize that when Democrats are united behind a cause, it spells trouble for them.”

http://www.bruce2008.com/relea…

Bruce can still win this race and still needs our help. Defeating Mitch McConnell should be as important as expelling Joe Lieberman, and would should get behind it with as much effort.

Now, in Congressional races, we simply must keep John Yarmuth, incumbent in the 3rd District. Anyone can find his record and easily see why. I got the priviledge of sitting next to him during Kennedy’s speech at the Convention. Here is a video he gave the grassroots Progressives at bluegrassroots.org:

I don’t think he is in trouble, but we must remain vigilent in this race, because Anne Northup is a Republican sweetheart who will raise a ton of cash. Yarmuth is a fine man, and a great Democrat we need to keep in our U.S. House. Please remember him:

http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

David Boswell is in a hot race too. There have been hints of a DCCC investment, and Boswell has polled ahead in this race. You can see him here. As a State Senator, he has high name recognition in his district:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

Then we have the two challengers facing the super tough races. You can here what Howard Dean says about them here:

Dr. Kelley is in the Fourth District. See him here:

Help Dr. Kelley here:

http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

Ah, and finally, we have Heather Ryan!! Yes, this is my home, my race and my friend. Thanks to all who helped us win the Progressive Patriots contest, it was huge for us. Thanks to Jennifer Moore and the KDP for helping us achieve it, and to all the many folks I asked to vote for her that did. You have all our gratitudes.

It seems the Exxon Ed Whitfield people just have something against this fiery grassroots Democrat. Not only do they take money from terrorist, but they hate free speech too. With a million dollars in their campaign account, they continue to rip up our campaign signs, many handpainted ones and two of the fifty printed ones we had donated. With a million dollars in their account they fear us because we speak the truth to power:

They even attacked her for raising money for a foundation that supports battered women in Western Kentucky:

The good news is the Feingold money, that many people were kind enough to help us win will keep Whitfield and his cronies plenty busy yanking up yard signs from now until November so we have time to go on the offensive. We need to run T.V., and we need your help to do it.

One T.V. spot on cable here costs about $6. Please, chip in just $6 to buy us one spot here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

If enough people give the price of a lottery ticket to take a chance on expanding our Congressional majorities we could well scratch off a winner here. Please help.

Don’t forget Kentucky. Jennifer Moore is providing great leadership here, and we have great candidates!!

This cannot be good news for Ann Northrup.

Republican Anne Northup, trying to regain her 3rd District congressional seat, has parted ways with her campaign manager, Scott Will, after disagreements that made it difficult for them to work together.

Anne and I have different personalities that really didn’t mesh real well,” Will said. “Anne is a great candidate, and I had a great experience here but it was just time to move on.”

Ted Jackson, Northup’s campaign chairman, said the issues appeared to “manifest themselves over a long period of time” and the two finally agreed yesterday that it wasn’t going to work.

Translation: She is losing. Look, you rarely fire your campaign manager when things are going well, even if you have “stylistic differences” (reminds me of the term “creative differences”). This is a bad time for her to be in disary. Perhaps she should realize it is also a bad time to be a Republican.

SurveyUSA (7/18-20, likely voters, 6/6-8 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (57)

Anne Northup (R): 43 (40)

(MoE: ±4%)

This latest poll from SUSA is awfully similar to one of Northup’s internal polls from last month, showing Yarmuth leading by 51-43. Considering Northup’s high name recognition, this is not a bad place for Yarmuth to start off in.