Today was the filing deadline in WI as well as the second day of New York’s four day filing period. Wisconsin information is partial as some candidates have filed the paperwork but the state has not validated their signatures.
The big news is that each side in Wisconsin will field at least one candidate with no major party opposition. For Republicans, James Sensenbrenner will face a primary challenger (Jim Burkee) and an Independent on the fall ballot (Robert Raymond) but no Democrat. Gwen Moore (D, WI-4) will also face an Independent in the fall (Michael LaForest) but no Republican.
Four Democrats appear to have qualified to oppose Paul Ryan in WI-1 (Paulette Garin, Mike Hebert, Marge Krupp, John Mogk). They will meet in a September 9 primary. Roger Kittelson has the signatures to oppose Tom Petri in WI-6 (unopposed in 2006). He may (or may not) face Mark Wollom in a primary depending on the validation of signatures.
Signatures must also be validated for three Republicans seeking to make the ballot in Wisconsin. Surprisingly, one of them is John Gard. This may show a bit of weakness in his candidacy in WI-8. The others are Peter Theron in WI-2 (vs. Tammy Baldwin) and Paul Stark in WI-3 (vs. Ron Kind). Could there be another free ride?
In NY, two of the three Republican House incumbents who have actually expressed interest in retaining their seats have filed: Peter King and John McHugh. It will be interesting to see if a candidate emerges in NY-13 and what the deal is in NY-25 and how many free rides come out of Democratic districts in the City.
The number of Republican House members who have not yet filed or announced their retirement is down to four in the entire country: Steve Scalise (LA-1), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Mike Castle (DE-At Large), and Randy Kuhl (NY-29). At this point, I expect all to run.
On the Democratic side, the biggest question mark as we wrap up filing remains whether we will find an opponent in NY-3 for Peter King. This is an eminently winnable seat. I think there may be a cattle call when King retires. Only when will that be?
An interesting side note is the number of high profile primary challenges to Democratic state senators and assembly members. Reading the Albany Project blog or the Albany Times-Union (local politics don’t seem as big in the NY City dailies), you’d think the state senate had already changed hands.
1) I expect King to be on the top of the NY hit list come 2010. He can either retire/run for higher office, be redistricted away in 2012, or go peacefully into the night. Just happens, the state party has been a little distracted with its embarrassment of rich targets this year.
2) DE-AL. Castle still hasn’t announced if he is seeking re-election???? As far as I’m concerned, he’s on retirement watch 24-7 until he does. The big factor here is the stroke he suffered last year that his staff covered up. He may try and do something similar to what happened to Lewis in KY-2 which is announce his retirement at the last minute only to have his Chief of Staff run for him (or something like that). I hope we have someone gathering signatures, just in case. [cough], Beau Biden [cough]
Graham E. Long filed as a Democrat in NY-3 to oppose Peter King this morning. With Steve Scalise, Rodney Alexander and Charles Boustany filing in LA, only Mike Castle and Randy Kuhl remain in that nether world of Republican House members who have yet to file or retire.
NY State does not list NY City filing. That will be interesting tomorrow to see how many districts are left unopposed.
To be a lot quieter this time around. We’ve had nailbiters in the last two Presidential races a couple of close governor’s races and a reasonably close Senate race.
I expect all 8 of our Congress people to be re-elected and while Kagen may be in a bit of a race, I find no reason to believe that Gard will win this go-around.
And while the Presidential race will be fairly close, I expect something similar to the 06 Gov. race with Obama getting 53-54% of the vote, a close race but certainly not a nailbiter.
We do have a lot fo significant state legislative races though.
First of all, David seems to misunderstand the significance of the fact that as of the time he posted this, Gard’s (and others’) signatures were still being validated. All this really means is that the petitions were on the bottom of the pile and a staff member hadn’t gone over them yet. Also, as far as I know, the Elections Board doesn’t actually check each signature yet, they just look at the papers to make sure there is no obvious funny business going on, and that there are enough signatures, valid or not. The list has been updated now, and Stark, Theron, and Gard are now on, at least for now.
However, that doesn’t mean that Gard is necessarily on the ballot yet. Candidates need 1000 signatures, and Gard only has 1028, with no “supplemental papers” for backup, like many other candidates have. So now the Kagen campaign, under open records, gets to scrutinize the Gard papers and see if they can find 29 invalid signatures (i.e. outside the district) by Monday. This rarely happens though, especially with an experienced candidate. Stark and Theron each have at least 300-400 over the minimum, so they should stay on.
Regarding the Independents, LaForest (opposing Moore) has previously run as a Green Party candidate. I don’t know about Raymond’s platform, except that he has run against Sensenbrenner before and not done so well.
In WI-8, there are some Republicans who are not particularly fond of Gard, who have seemingly decided to grab some popcorn and watch Gard go down in flames in a Democratic year, then run in 2010 or 2012. State Rep. Frank Lasee is quite a bit to Gard’s right, and State Rep. Steve Wieckert is more moderate and well liked in the district. If Wieckert decides to run, Kagen will have a tough race.
In NY-3, I wonder if Graham Long might be the Dave Loebsack of 2008.
NY-25: Still D. Maffei (D) vs. P. Cappucilli (R)?
WI-02: is D. Redick (R) running as well, to cause a primary between him and P. Theron?